WARSAW AS THE CEE FINANCIAL HUB: HOW FAR HAVE WE COME?
AND HOW FAR DO WE STILL HAVE TO GO?
MACIEJ WEWIÓR
ADVISOR TO THE PR...
-2-
Poland’s Key Position
in the enlarged EU
-3-
Poland’s Key Position in the enlarged EU
The largest and most populated new (i.e.
accession post 2004) EU member State...
-4-
The generation which does not know the recession
2,6
3,8
5,2
7,0
6,2
7,1
5,0
4,5
4,2
1,2 1,4
3,9
5,3
3,6
6,2
6,8
5,1
1...
-5-
Poland has not gone through a destabilizing boom bust cycle
Poland runs a relatively low and sustainable CA deficit
Po...
-6-
Source: Eurostat
* CEE: Poland, Romania, Czech Rep., Bulgaria, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia
Poland has not gon...
-7-
Poland’s current account deficit is lower
and more stable than in most CEE countries
Current account balance as a % of...
-8-
Source: Eurostat
0,6
1,0
1,4
1,8
2,2
2,6
3,0
3,4
3,8
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ...
-9-
Central bank interest rates - annual data (%)
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010...
-10-
Limited impact of the global crisis
on Poland’s fiscal health
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
Public debt ratio in...
-11-
Polish population – one of the youngest in Europe
36,00
37,00
38,00
39,00
40,00
41,00
42,00
Poland EU (27 countries) ...
-12-
Poland the most attractive for FDI in CEE region
Source: European Investment Monitor, Ernst & Young
The number of new...
-13-
Warsaw Stock Exchange
largest exchange in the CEE region
-14-
Largest exchange in CEE region with growth
potential
In months Jan – Apr 2013, WSE remains the largest
national stock...
-15-
45,7
38,8
52,3
61,6
45,1
53,9
Value of equity trading – WSE (EUR bn)
Largest exchange in the CEE region1
1 EOB; domes...
-16-
WSE v. EU stock markets
Turnover value in Jan-May 2013 v. Jan-May
2012 decreased by 3.5% on all EU markets
while incr...
-17-
Broad and diversified investor base ensures that growth potential can be fulfilled
Potential for growth through struc...
-18-
18,2
9,3
6,8
15,5
8,6
3.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
WSE Main List
24
61
26
86
172
89
81
33
13
34
38
19
2007 2008 ...
-19-
Biggest IPOs/SPOs on the stock market
Date Company Exchange
Value
[EUR bn]
09/01/2013 ArcelorMittal Luxembourg SE 1 3...
-20-
Growing number of foreign exchange members …
In Q1 2012 Xelion Doradcy Finansowi - domestic broker
joined wide range ...
-21-
571 623
718
828
970
1 124
1 236
1 480
1 633
1 786
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201...
-22-
Equities
20%
Investment
funds
6%
Pension
funds
19%
Cash
7%
Deposits
38%
Other
10%
Polish capital markets enjoy a vibr...
-23-
Since 15 April 2013 – new trading system on WSE
Trading system developed by NYSE Technologies, member of
NYSE Euronex...
-24-
Goals and possibilities of the new system
UTP trading system for the market
Top global functional and technical
stand...
-25-
Warsaw Stock Exchange
ul. Książęca 4, 00-498 Warsaw, Poland
tel. +48 22 628 32 32
press@gpw.pl
www.gpw.pl
Contact
Dis...
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BF Warsaw 2013 - Wewior - WSE

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Maciek Wewior's presentation delivered at the SWIFT Business Forum in Warsaw on 14 June 2013

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BF Warsaw 2013 - Wewior - WSE

  1. 1. WARSAW AS THE CEE FINANCIAL HUB: HOW FAR HAVE WE COME? AND HOW FAR DO WE STILL HAVE TO GO? MACIEJ WEWIÓR ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD AN CEO OF WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE SWIFT BUSINESS FORUM JUNE 2013 R.
  2. 2. -2- Poland’s Key Position in the enlarged EU
  3. 3. -3- Poland’s Key Position in the enlarged EU The largest and most populated new (i.e. accession post 2004) EU member State (population c.a. 38 million) Poland’s GDP accounts for c.a. 38% of the new EU 12 members’ GDP GDP growth in 2010: 3.9% GDP growth in 2011: 4.3% GDP growth in 2012: 1.9% GDP growth forecast in 2013: 1.1% GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2.2% Polish government GDP growth forecast in 2014: 2,5% 2008 - 2012 accumulated GDP: 18,1% Ratings  A2 Stable by Moody’s  A- Stable by S&P  A- Stable by Fitch Source: Ministry of Finance, Polish Central Statistical Office, Eurostat, EBOR. Key statistics: Economy: EU GDP (%) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2008-2012 accumulated GDP Poland 5,1 1,6 3,9 4,5 1,9 1,1 2,2 18,1 Lithuania 2,9 -14,8 1,5 5,9 3,7 3,1 3,6 -2,3 Latvia -3,3 -17,7 -0,9 5,5 5,6 3,8 4,1 -12,1 Slovakia 5,8 -4,9 4,4 3,2 2,0 1,0 2,8 10,6 Estonia -4,2 -14,1 3,3 8,3 3,2 3,0 4,0 -5,0 Romania 7,3 -6,6 -1,1 2,2 0,7 1,6 2,2 2,0 Malta 3,9 -2,8 2,9 1,7 0,8 1,4 1,8 6,5 Denmark -0,8 -5,7 1,6 1,1 -0,5 0,7 1,7 -4,4 Luxemburg -0,7 -4,1 2,9 1,7 0,3 0,8 1,6 0,0 Austria 1,4 -3,8 2,1 2,7 0,8 0,6 1,8 3,1 Finland -8,5 0,3 3,3 2,8 -0,2 0,3 1,0 -2,7 Germany 1,1 -5,1 4,2 3,0 0,7 0,4 1,8 3,7 Bulgaria 6,2 -5,5 0,4 1,8 0,8 0,9 1,7 3,4 Ireland -2,1 -5,5 -0,8 1,4 0,9 1,1 2,2 -6,1 France -0,1 -3,1 1,7 2,0 0,0 -0,1 1,1 0,4 UK -1,0 -4,0 1,8 1,0 0,3 0,6 1,7 -2,0 Sweden -0,6 -5,0 6,6 3,7 0,7 1,5 2,5 5,1 EU (27 countries) 0,3 -4,3 2,1 1,6 -0,3 -0,1 1,4 -0,7 Belgium 1,0 -2,8 2,4 1,8 -0,3 0,0 1,2 2,0 Czech Republic 3,1 -4,5 2,5 1,9 -1,3 -0,4 1,6 1,5 Euro area (17 countries) 0,4 -4,4 2,0 1,5 -0,6 -0.4 1,2 -1,2 Hungary 0,9 -6,8 1,3 1,6 -1,7 0,2 1,4 -4,9 Cyprus 3,6 -1,9 1,3 0,5 -2,4 -8,7 -3,9 1,0 Netherlands 1,8 -3,7 1,6 1,0 -1,0 -0,8 0,9 -0,4 Italy -1,2 -5,5 1,7 0,4 -2,4 -1,3 0,7 -7,0 Slovenia 3,4 -7,8 1,2 0,6 -2,3 -2,0 -0,1 -5,2 Spain 0,9 -3,7 -0,3 0,4 -1,4 -1,5 0,9 -4,1 Portugal 0,0 -2,9 1,9 -1,6 -3,2 -2,3 0,6 -5,8 Romania 7,3 -6,6 -1,1 2,2 0,7 1,6 2,2 2,0
  4. 4. -4- The generation which does not know the recession 2,6 3,8 5,2 7,0 6,2 7,1 5,0 4,5 4,2 1,2 1,4 3,9 5,3 3,6 6,2 6,8 5,1 1,6 3,9 4,5 1,9 1,1 2,2 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Poland's GDP 1992-2014f (%) South Korea 26 years 1961-1987 Germany 25 years 1949-1974 Poland 22 years 1992-2013 Australia 22 years 1992-2013 UK 14 years 1993-2007 USA 10 years 1991-2001 Japan 7 years 2000-2007 Source: Eurostat
  5. 5. -5- Poland has not gone through a destabilizing boom bust cycle Poland runs a relatively low and sustainable CA deficit Polish exports grows faster than of other EU countries Polish central bank keeps the interest rates higher than other EU countries which makes the growth slower in a period of prosperity but also causes slower recession during a crisis Limited impact of the global crisis on Poland’s fiscal health Polish population – one of the youngest in Europe Poland the most attractive for foreign investments in CEE region While this global crisis has hit most of the world hard, Poland seems to be practically unscathed
  6. 6. -6- Source: Eurostat * CEE: Poland, Romania, Czech Rep., Bulgaria, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia Poland has not gone through a destabilizing boom bust cycle -6,00 -4,00 -2,00 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Poland EU (27 countries) CEE avarage* Real GDP growth % yoy
  7. 7. -7- Poland’s current account deficit is lower and more stable than in most CEE countries Current account balance as a % of GDP Source: Eurostat
  8. 8. -8- Source: Eurostat 0,6 1,0 1,4 1,8 2,2 2,6 3,0 3,4 3,8 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Poland's share of EU exports (right axis) EU-27 exports Poland's exports Poland’s and EU (27) exports growth and the Poland’s share of EU total exports (%) Polish exports grew faster than of other EU countries
  9. 9. -9- Central bank interest rates - annual data (%) 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Euro area (changing composition) Czech Republic Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Denmark Sweden United Kingdom Higher interest rates in Poland make the recession slower in the crisis Source: Eurostat
  10. 10. -10- Limited impact of the global crisis on Poland’s fiscal health Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Public debt ratio in Poland: moderated before the crisis slight increase during the crisis no longer rising
  11. 11. -11- Polish population – one of the youngest in Europe 36,00 37,00 38,00 39,00 40,00 41,00 42,00 Poland EU (27 countries) Developed Europe Emerging Europe CEE Region Source: Eurostat Median age in Europe
  12. 12. -12- Poland the most attractive for FDI in CEE region Source: European Investment Monitor, Ernst & Young The number of new foreign investment projects # Country 2011 2012 Change Share (2012) 1Poland 121 148 22,30% 3,90% 2Finland 62 75 21,00% 2,00% 3Serbia 67 78 16,40% 2,10% 4Ireland 106 123 16,00% 3,20% 5Belgium 153 169 10,50% 4,50% 6Germany 597 624 4,50% 16,40% 7UK 679 697 2,70% 18,40% 8Spain 273 274 0,40% 7,20% 9Russia 128 128 0,00% 3,40% 10Turkey 97 95 -2,10% 2,50% 11Czech Republic 66 64 -3,00% 1,70% 12The Netherlands 170 161 -5,30% 4,20% 13France 540 471 -12,80% 12,40% 14Italy 80 60 -25,00% 1,60% 15Switzerland 99 61 -38,40% 1,60% CEE region
  13. 13. -13- Warsaw Stock Exchange largest exchange in the CEE region
  14. 14. -14- Largest exchange in CEE region with growth potential In months Jan – Apr 2013, WSE remains the largest national stock exchange in CEE, with domestic market capitalization of EUR 127 bn and equity session turnover of EUR 17.6 bn. In months Jan - Apr 2013, WSE remains on the 4th position among European exchanges, with over 2.7 mln stock index futures traded volume. Domestic market capitalization (Apr 2013, EUR bn) Value of session equity trading (Jan - Apr 2013, EUR bn) Source: FESE, Apr 2013. Stock Index Futures traded volumes on European exchanges No. Exchange Volume of trading Jan-Apr 2013 (#) 1. EUREX 112 049 192 2. NYSE Euronext.Liffe 28 848 812 3. NASDAQ OMX 10 990 804 4. WSE 2 734 971 5. SPAIN 2 396 287 6. NORWAY 1 165 928 7. GREECE 507 869 8. HUNGARY 166 264 9. AUSTRIA 117 198 10. ROMANIA (BSE) 2 399 126,7 81,0 36,8 24,2 15,3 13,1 4,8 Warsaw Vienna Athens Prague Budapest Bucharest Ljubljana 17,6 6,4 4,9 2,4 2,3 0,3 0,1 Warsaw Vienna Athens Prague Budapest Bucharest Ljubljana
  15. 15. -15- 45,7 38,8 52,3 61,6 45,1 53,9 Value of equity trading – WSE (EUR bn) Largest exchange in the CEE region1 1 EOB; domestic and foreign equity trading; regulated and alternative markets 2 annualized 127,5 73,1 72,4 59,2 36,8 34,7 Value of equity trading – CEESEG (EUR bn) CEESEG - Budapest 8,5% CEESEG - Ljubljana 0,4% CEESEG - Prague 8,2% CEESEG - Vienna 22,0% Warsaw Stock Exchange 60,8% Share of regional stock exchanges in equity trading, Q1 2013
  16. 16. -16- WSE v. EU stock markets Turnover value in Jan-May 2013 v. Jan-May 2012 decreased by 3.5% on all EU markets while increased by 10.0% on WSE (turnover in EUR) Turnover value in I-V 2013 v. VIII-XII 2012 increased by 20.6% on all EU markets and 18.4% on WSE (turnover in EUR) 19,7 18,3 21,6 2012 Jan-May 2012 Aug-Dec 2013 Jan-May WSE +10,0% +18,4% 3 897,3 3 117,3 3 759,2 2012 Jan-May 2012 Aug-Dec 2013 Jan-May UE markets -3,5% +20,6% 18,0 16,6 19,1 2012 Jan-May2012 Aug-Dec2013 Jan-May Small and medium exchanges +6,2% 1 976,9 1 642,9 1 885,2 2012 Jan- May 2012 Aug- Dec 2013 Jan- May Big exchanges -4,6% 1 131,9 871,4 1 097,6 2012 Jan- May 2012 Aug- Dec 2013 Jan- May MTFs -3,0% Source: Thomson Reuters EMSR 1 Small and medium exchanges (turnover<250 bn euro): Athens Exch.,, Bratislava SE, Bucharest SE, Bulgarian SE, CEESEG - Budapest, CEESEG - Ljubljana, CEESEG - Prague, CEESEG - Vienna, Cyprus SE, Irish SE, Luxembourg SE, Malta SE, 2 Big exchanges (turnover> 250 bn euro): BME (Spanish Exch.), Deutsche Boerse, London SE Group (LSE + Borsa Italiana), Nasdaq OMX Nordic, NYSE Euronext; 3 MTFs BATS Europe, Burgundy, Equiduct, NYSE Arca Europe, TOM, Turquoise
  17. 17. -17- Broad and diversified investor base ensures that growth potential can be fulfilled Potential for growth through structural development of the market 17 ¹ Source: Eurostat for GDP values, FESE for market capitalization and trading velocity values (as of the end of 2012) Potential for further growth through:  Continued “equitization” primarily through increasing private sector capital raisings and further privatization of state-owned companies  New financial instruments and investment strategies as a result of implementation of UTP system:  Continued development of the derivatives market  Attraction of new market participants, including algo-traders  Expected positive effects of changes on the Polish capital market, such as:  Regulatory driven infrustructure changes (CCP, omnibus accounts, short selling, etc.)0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% MarketCapitalization/GDP Velocity ratio WSE Vienna Athens Budapest Oslo Deutsche Boerse BME IMKB SIX Swiss NYSE Euronext Nasdaq OMX Nordic LSE Borsa Italiana Luxembourg Prague Bratislava Irish SE
  18. 18. -18- 18,2 9,3 6,8 15,5 8,6 3.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 WSE Main List 24 61 26 86 172 89 81 33 13 34 38 19 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New Connect WSE Main List 162 185 52 242 726 225 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NewConnect (PLN m) A leading listing venue in Europe Value of IPOs Source: PwC IPO Watch, PwC IPO Watch Europe Review 2013, regulated markets Source: WSE , end of December 2012 (PLN bn) Number of IPOs Leading position in EU by number of IPOs Source: PwC IPO Watch, PwC IPO Watch Europe Review 2013, regulated markets Source: WSE, end of December 2012 One of top exchanges in EU by value of IPOs (EUR m) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 LSE Warsaw NYSE Euronext Frankfurt NASDAQ OMX Swiss Oslo Other 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 LSE Frankfurt NYSE Euronext Swiss Warsaw Oslo Italy NASDAQ OMX Spain Other 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  19. 19. -19- Biggest IPOs/SPOs on the stock market Date Company Exchange Value [EUR bn] 09/01/2013 ArcelorMittal Luxembourg SE 1 339.05 23/01/2013 PKO BP WSE 1 257.01 21/03/2013 Bank Zachodni WBK SA WSE 1 167.71 07/01/2013 LEG Immobilien AG Deutsche Boerse 1 165.19 13/02/2013 LyondellBasell Ind. NV Euronext Amsterdam 1 142.87 18/03/2013 Ziggo NV Euronext Amsterdam 1 002.00 25/03/2013 Telefonica SA BME (Spain) 972.73 15/03/2013 Volkswagen AG Deutsche Boerse 913.64 29/01/2013 Bank Pekao SA WSE 892.16 27/02/2013 Esure Group PLC London SE 803.18 WSE ranked #2 in Europe by number of IPOs and #3 by value of IPOs in Q1 2013 Three offerings of Polish companies among biggest stock offerings in Europe in Q1 2013 Source: Bloomberg European biggest stock offerings in Q1 2013 Main Market 395 domestic companies, 44 foreign issuers 428 domestic companies, 8 foreign issuers 163 issuers (incl. State Treasury) 361 listed non-Treasury issues Issuers activity on WSE markets (as at the end of Q1 2013) +5 companies YoY +5 companies YoY +64 companies YoY +2 companies YoY +45 issuers YoY +118 issues YoY
  20. 20. -20- Growing number of foreign exchange members … In Q1 2012 Xelion Doradcy Finansowi - domestic broker joined wide range of WSE market participants; In H1 2012 Wedbush Europe Ltd and ING NV joined as remote members; As at end of January 2013, 24 foreign members on WSE In 2011, 15 foreign companies made their debut on WSE (12 on WSE Main List and 3 on NewConnect); In 2012, 7 foreign companies joined WSE (5 on Main Market and 2 on NC) On May 4, 2011, WSE launched WIG-Ukraine - first national index in Europe comprising companies originating from Ukraine. On May, 2012, WSE started to calculate and publish the Central and Eastern European regional stock index WIG- CEE. …and an increasing number of foreign issuers Ongoing internationalization Source: WSE, 2013 YTD. 26 24 25 26 31 29 30 32 34 7 10 17 18 17 19 29 24 26 31 35 43 49 46 49 61 58 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Local Foreign Total Source: WSE, 2013 YTD. 1 3 7 12 23 25 25 27 39 44 1 2 3 6 8 26 27 30 46 52 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Main Market NewConnect Total
  21. 21. -21- 571 623 718 828 970 1 124 1 236 1 480 1 633 1 786 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 21 Value of financial assets held by foreign investors is on an increasing and stable trajectory PLNbn Value of WSE listed shares held by foreign investors accounted for 40.3%³ of market capitalization of domestic shares listed on the WSE as of the end of 2012 PLN bn ¹ Source: National Bank of Poland ² Source: Polish Agency for Foreign Investment (PAiZ) ³ Source: National Bank of Poland, including both institutional and other types of investors % value of WSE listed shares held by foreign investors Value of WSE listed shares held by foreign investors 82 111 153 196 208 110 153 215 184 212 60% 57% 55% 49% 44% 46% 38% 40% 42% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 250 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Financial assets in Poland held by foreign investors1 Strong and growing foreign investor base
  22. 22. -22- Equities 20% Investment funds 6% Pension funds 19% Cash 7% Deposits 38% Other 10% Polish capital markets enjoy a vibrant and broad retail investor base Current investment allocation remains geared towards deposits and cash products providing potential for increased equity investment participation Large privatizations via WSE have attracted extensive retail investor participation and have broadened overall appeal of equities among the general public  WSE IPO attracted ca. 323,000 retail investors 22¹ Source: National Bank of Poland, latest available data ² Source: KDPW ³ Defined as accounts with at least one transaction over the preceding six months Total 3Q 2012 = PLN 1,349 bn 0,95 0,85 0,85 0,91 1,00 1,03 1,13 1,48 1,50 1,51 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Number of retail investment accounts in mn2 Savings/investment distribution of Polish individuals1 Retail investors with increased interest in capital markets
  23. 23. -23- Since 15 April 2013 – new trading system on WSE Trading system developed by NYSE Technologies, member of NYSE Euronext Group State-of-the-art technology, used on the stock exchanges in New York, Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Lisbon, on the exchange in Qatar, on the derivatives exchange NYSE Liffe and in a couple of banks System allowing for real inclusion of the Polish market into the system of global exchanges thanks to new services Possibility of applying investment techniques popular on well-developed exchanges UTP – new trading system
  24. 24. -24- Goals and possibilities of the new system UTP trading system for the market Top global functional and technical standards Potential for growth of liquidity and reduction of transaction costs New financial instruments (including new classes of derivatives, more diverse structured products) Access to new investment techniques (including algorithmic trading) New trading functionalities (new types of orders, new rules of trading) Transaction system Internal latency in miliseconds Performance orders / second Capacity - mn orders per trading session Scalability 0.15 60 20 000+ 850 15+ 8 Next Trading Unit expands system by 10,000 orders /second very limited UTP WARSET
  25. 25. -25- Warsaw Stock Exchange ul. Książęca 4, 00-498 Warsaw, Poland tel. +48 22 628 32 32 press@gpw.pl www.gpw.pl Contact Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie S.A. (the “Company” or “WSE”) solely for use by its shareholders, clients or analysts and should not be treated as a part of any invitation or offer to sell any securities, invest or deal in or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities or recommendation to conclude any transaction, in particular with respect to securities of WSE. The information contained in this document has been compiled in good faith by the Company, however all users of this presentation should take note that some of the data are based or provided to WSE by external sources and has not been independently verified. WSE does not make any representation as to accuracy, fairness, correctness or completeness of the information or the opinions contained herein. WSE shall not be liable for the consequences of any decision made based on information included in this presentation. WSE hereby informs persons viewing this presentation that the only source of reliable data describing WSE financial results and events are current or periodic reports issued by WSE in satisfaction of its disclosure obligations under Polish law.
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