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World Energy Outlook 2012

World Energy Outlook 2012






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    World Energy Outlook 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • © OECD/IEA 2012World Energy Outlook 2012Presentation to the pressLondon, 12 November 2012
    • © OECD/IEA 2012The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times) Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Emerging economies steer energy marketsShare of global energy demandGlobal energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East20%40%60%80%100%1975 2010 2035Middle EastIndiaChinaOECDNon-OECDRest of non-OECD6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
    • © OECD/IEA 2012A United States oil & gas transformationUS oil and gas productionThe surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implicationswell beyond the United StatesUnconventional gasConventional gasUnconventional oilConventional oilmboe/d5101520251980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Iraq oil poised for a major expansionIraq oil productionIraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia1234567892012 2020 2035mb/d NorthCentreSouthIraq oil exports1234567892012 2020 2035mb/d OtherAsia
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk roadMiddle East oil export by destinationBy 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’semergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade7United StatesJapan & Korea EuropeChina Indiamb/d 200020112035123456
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Natural gas: towards a globalised marketMajor global gas trade flows, 2010Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanismsMajor global gas trade flows, 2035
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Different trends in oil & gasimport dependencyWhile dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries0%20%40%60%80%100%20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Oil importsGas ImportsUnited StatesChinaIndiaEuropean UnionJapan2010203520%Gas Exportsthe United States swims against the tide
    • © OECD/IEA 20123 000 4 000 5 000 6 000TWh2 000A power shift to emerging economiesThe need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwidedemand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacityChange in power generation, 2010-2035-1 000 0 1 000JapanEuropean UnionUnited StatesChinaTWhCoal Gas Nuclear RenewablesIndia
    • © OECD/IEA 2012The multiple benefits of renewablescome at a costRenewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targetsGlobal renewable energy subsidies$50$100$150$200$2502011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Billion2012-2035$960 billion$2 600 billion$1 200 billionExisting capacityElectricity:2011-2035Biofuels:
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Wide variations in the price of powerElectricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in theEuropean Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United StatesAverage household electricity prices, 2035510152025China United States European Union Japancents/kWh2011Non-OECDaverage2011OECD average
    • © OECD/IEA 20122010Energy is becoming thirstier in theface of growing water constraintsThe energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasinglyimportant criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects20%40%60%80%100%2010CoalNuclearOtherEnergyBiofuelsFossil fuelsPowerGlobal water use Water for energy
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Energy efficiency: a huge opportunitygoing unrealised20%40%60%80%100%Industry Transport PowergenerationBuildingsUnrealised energyefficiency potentialRealised energyefficiency potentialTwo-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiencyremains untapped in the period to 2035Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
    • © OECD/IEA 2012The Efficient World Scenario:a blueprint for an efficient worldEconomically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;Total primary energy demand12 00013 00014 00015 00016 00017 00018 0002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035MtoeNew PoliciesScenarioEfficientWorld ScenarioReduction in 2035Coal 1 350 MtceOil 12.7 mb/dGas 680 bcmOthers 250 Mtoeoil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Energy efficiency brings economic gainsIn addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiencybrings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & EuropeEnergy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010TrillionEfficient WorldScenarioNew PoliciesScenarioAdditional in theNew PoliciesScenario-$0.3$0$0.3$0.6$0.9$1.2$1.5China India EuropeanUnionUnitedStatesJapan
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Room to manoeuvreThe Efficient World Scenariodelays carbon lock-inEnergy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °Ctrajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years510152025302011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Gt2 °C trajectoryLock-in of existinginfrastructure2017Lock-in of infrastructurein New Policies Scenarioin 2017202235Lock-in of infrastructurein Efficient World Scenarioin 2022
    • © OECD/IEA 2012Foundations of energy system shifting Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,environmental & economic objectives Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineglobal economic & geopolitical balances Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” pointmoves closer & the costs of inaction rise The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & areessential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system