International Energy Outlook 2013

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International Energy Outlook 2013

  1. 1. www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2013 for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
  2. 2. Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013 2 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 • With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India. • Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. • Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States. • Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries. • Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040.
  3. 3. Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend 3 average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
  4. 4. Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use 4 world energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 100 200 300 400 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia History Projections Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  5. 5. By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth 5 energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 China United States India History Projections2010 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 107 55 220
  6. 6. Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption 6 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Liquids (including biofuels) Renewables (excluding biofuels) Natural gas Coal Nuclear History Projections2010 34% 28% 22% 11% 5% 28% 27% 23% 7% 15% Share of world total Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  7. 7. Industrial sector energy consumption in China 7 China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Liquids RenewablesNatural gas Coal Electricity Total Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  8. 8. Gross output curves shape China’s industrial coal and liquids use 8 China gross output for iron production real 2005 dollars (MER) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 China gross output for chemical production real 2005 dollars (MER) Source: Oxford Industrial Model Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  9. 9. Liquid Fuels Markets 9 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  10. 10. OPEC member countries contribute almost half of the total increase in world liquid supplies 10 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids OPEC petroleum liquids Nonpetroleum Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 world liquids production million barrels per day History Projections2010 62 49 5 50 35 2
  11. 11. Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries 11 non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile 2010 2040 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  12. 12. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2010 2010 2040 Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies 12 world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Biofuels Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Other Other Brazil United States China OtherQatar 2010 2040 2040
  13. 13. Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain 13 Source: EIA, IEO2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Country 2011 2040 Past as prologue Iraq success Iran success Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest 2040 production range Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5 Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 8.1 4.2 Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 11.0 7.7 Other Middle East OPEC 7.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 _ Total Middle East OPEC 25.4 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 _ liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day
  14. 14. Natural Gas Markets 14 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  15. 15. Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption 15 world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 OECD Non-OECD billion cubic feet per day 330 275 220 165 110 55
  16. 16. Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production 16 1 2 5 5 6 10 12 16 19 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Other OECD Canada Australia/New Zealand Non-OECD Central and South America Africa Non-OECD Asia United States Middle East Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
  17. 17. Electricity Markets 17 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  18. 18. In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040 18 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Coal Natural gas Hydropower Nuclear Other renewables Liquids History Projections 40% 22% 36% 24%
  19. 19. China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity 19 world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 50 100 150 200 Japan South Korea India Russia Other non-OECD OECD Americas OECD Europe China 2010 2040 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  20. 20. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions 20 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  21. 21. Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 21 world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia History Projections
  22. 22. Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection 22 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels 2010History Projections Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
  23. 23. There are many issues that increase uncertainty… 23 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 • Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China • The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima • Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere • Shale gas and shale oil production potential • OPEC market share decisions • Climate policies
  24. 24. For more information 24 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  25. 25. Supplementary Slides Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 25
  26. 26. IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices 26 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 • Reference case – World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040 – Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040 • High Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040 • Low Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040 • High Oil Price case – Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share is 38% in 2040 • Low Oil Price case – Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is 51% in 2040
  27. 27. Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises 27 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Low Oil Price High Oil Price Reference Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel History Projections2011 $237 $163 $75
  28. 28. Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand 28 world energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Non-OECD OECD 242 282 535 285 History Projections2010 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  29. 29. Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East 29 OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Middle East North Africa West Africa South America 2010 2040 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
  30. 30. Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets 30 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI
  31. 31. Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources 31 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Shale oil Rank Country Billion barrels 1 Russia 75 2 United States 58 3 China 32 4 Argentina 27 5 Libya 26 6 Venezuela 13 7 Mexico 13 8 Pakistan 9 9 Canada 9 10 Indonesia 8 World total 345 Shale gas Rank Country Trillion cubic feet 1 China 1,115 2 Argentina 802 3 Algeria 707 4 United States 665 5 Canada 573 6 Mexico 545 7 Australia 437 8 South Africa 390 9 Russia 285 10 Brazil 245 World total 7,299 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.
  32. 32. 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040 Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada 32 natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 China Canada Shale gas All other United States Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Coalbed methane Tight gas
  33. 33. Btu or Brithish thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources 33 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 • One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match. • One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline. • One trillion Btu is equal to 500 100-ton railroad cars of coal. • One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

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