Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014
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Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014

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Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014 Impact of mega-events on hotel performance - AHIC 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • Impact of mega-events on hotel performance Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director STR Global
  • Dubai Currently Ranks Amongst Highest ADR Cities ADR and %Chg in USD, YE 2013 -1.3% -0.5% +4.8% -12.5% +3.4% -4.3% -3.2% -1.7% -1.1% +6.5% +3.0% +4.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Beijing Shanghai Los Angeles Tokyo Milan Sydney Greater London Hong Kong Singapore Dubai New York Paris
  • 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg Dubai Peak Supply Growth 12 MMA YE 2006 – Jun 2015, % change
  • Dubai Occ/ADR % Change 12 month moving average YE 2005 to February 2014, in USD -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg
  • 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 -7 years -6 years -5 years -4 years -3 years -2 years -1 year Expo Year Shanghai Milan Dubai Forecast Dubai Scenario Build up to Expo Index of supply growth
  • Occupancy peaks at Expo start, ADR peaks at closing YOY Occ, ADR % Jan’09 -Mar ’14 (Shanghai excluding Econ Class) ¥500 ¥550 ¥600 ¥650 ¥700 ¥750 ¥800 ¥850 ¥900 ¥950 ¥1,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% JanYR-1 MarYR-1 MayYR-1 JulYR-1 SepYR-1 NovYR-1 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov JanYR+1 MarYR+1 MayYR+1 JulYR+1 SepYR+1 NovYR+1 JanYR+2 MarYR+2 MayYR+2 JulYR+2 SeptYR+2 NovYR+2 JanYR+3 MarYR+3 MayYR+3 JulYR+3 SeptYR+3 NovYR+3 JanYR+4 MarYR+4 Occ ADR
  • Often More Displacement than Demand Total Demand and % Changes, YE of each Olympic city +0.8% -1.3% +9.6% -5.9% +2.6% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing Greater London Millions
  • Occupancy Below 90% Occupancy by month during Olympic Year 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London '12
  • Concentrated Rate Growth During Olympics ADR % Chg, in local currency, YOY during Olympic year -25% 25% 75% 125% 175% 225% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London'12
  • ADR Gains, Occupancy Declines Occ and ADR % Chg, local currency -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Atlanta '96 Sydney '00 Athens '04 Beijing '08 London '12 OCC ADR
  • Mixed RevPAR Results, Athens benefitted from games timing and limited supply YE of each Olympic each year, RevPAR and % Chg in USD +8.1% -5.4% +51.5% +6.0% +1.4% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Atlanta Sydney Athens Beijing London
  • 0.5% 5.4% December 2013 December 2013 Actual Performance Actual Performance Olympic Legacy London becomes the first city to achieve post-Olympic RevPAR growth in YR +1 LONDON REGIONAL UK
  • Rising Tides Q1 2014 RevPAR % change
  • Global picture Supply & Demand 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 North America Central- South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania Supply Demand Supply & Demand % Change, March 2014 YTD
  • Spotlight Middle East & Africa Market performance – Occ %, ADR $ and RevPAR $, March 2014 YTD Northern Africa Occ 44.4% -8.3% ADR $ 80 -4.0% RevPAR $ 36 -11.9% Southern Africa Occ 61.4% -0.3% ADR $ 133 -2.5% RevPAR $ 82 -2.7% Middle East Occ 75.1% +3.3% ADR $ 220 +2.2% RevPAR $ 165 +5.6%
  • MEA Classes Occ and ADR $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14+1.2 +2.5-0.4 +0.0 March 2013 & 2014 YTD, in USD +6.5 +2.0 +0.7 +0.2 +1.7 +2.6
  • MEA Markets Occ, ADR % Chg March 2014 YTD, in local currency -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Abu Dhabi Amman Beirut Cairo Cape Town Doha Dubai Jeddah Lagos Manama Muscat Nairobi Riyadh Sandton and Surrd. Occupancy ADR
  • MEA Markets Occ, ADR $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cairo Beirut Nairobi Lagos Manama Amman Sandton and Surrd. Riyadh Jeddah Abu Dhabi Doha Cape Town Muscat Dubai Occupancy ADR March 2014 YTD, in USD
  • Accelerating Pipeline Pipeline % increase # of rooms +7% +16% +3% +40% +15% +8%
  • Accelerating Pipeline Global Pipeline # of Rooms Under Contract: +1.16 million In Construction +513k Final Planning +270k Planning +380k MEA +137k Saudi Arabia +34.9k UAE +34.7k Qatar +9.0k Morocco +6.6k Oman +5.0K Upper Upscale Chains +47.8k Luxury Chains +26.9k Upscale Chains +25.0k Upper Midscale +9.8k Midscale +5.7k Economy +1.1k
  • Opportunities in Africa No Branded Supply (Red) Angola Burundi Central African Republic Comoros Democratic Republic of Congo Eritrea Liberia Mauritania Niger Republic of Congo Sierra Leone Somalia South Sudan One African Brand (Blue) Burkina Faso (1 hotel) Guinea Bissau (1 hotel) Lesotho (2 hotels) Malawi (1 hotel) Rwanda (2 hotels) Swaziland (3 hotels)Source: STR Global March 2014
  • THANK YOU