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Ratio of Power Sources in Japan in 2030
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Ratio of Power Sources in Japan in 2030

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Intervenant: Takeo kikkawa, Professor, Graduate School of Commerce and Management, ...

Intervenant: Takeo kikkawa, Professor, Graduate School of Commerce and Management,
Hitotsubashi University
thèmes: Fukushima Daiichi,Power Source Composition, Scenario in 2030
Présentation lors d’une table ronde sur les perspectives de plusieurs pays à la convention SFEN du 4 avril 2013.

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Ratio of Power Sources in Japan in 2030 Ratio of Power Sources in Japan in 2030 Presentation Transcript

  • April 3rd, 2013, Paris – Salle Wagram SFENNuclear and Renewables in the energy transition Ratio of Power Sources in Japan in 2030 Takeo KIKKAWA Professor, Graduate School of Commerce and Management Hitotsubashi University Doctor of Economics President, Business History Society of Japan kikkawa09@gmail.com 1
  • Shock of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant ■ INES (International Nuclear Event Scale) ・ Level 7: Chernobyl (1986) Fukushima Daiichi (2009) ・ Level 5: Three Mile Island(1979) ■ As nuclear reactors undergo periodic inspections every 13 months, all reactors have once stopped in May, 2012. ■ Of 50 reactors in Japan (47GW), only two reactors are in operation. ・ The dependence of Japan once on nuclear power is 29% (2010) →2%(Dec. 2012) ■ Japan’s trade balance turned to loss in 2011for the first time since 1980. 2
  • Think About Power Source Composition in 2030■Basic concept ・ Independent variables are (1) Growth of renewable energy (2) Deepening of energy saving centering on consumer use (3) Progress towards cheap fuel (by utilizing shale gas revolution) and zero emissions of thermal power (IGCC: Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle, CCS: Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage) ・ Dependence on nuclear power is a dependent variable (decided by subtraction)■Ratio of nuclear power: renewable energy: thermal power: co-generation (2030, %) *26:11:60:3 (2010 results) *20~25:30~25:35:15 (Status quo scenario) *15:30:40:15 (Scenario abandoning dependence on nuclear power) * 0:35:50:15 (Denuclearization scenario) 3
  • Status Quo Scenario in 2030■Ratio of power sources: nuclear 20~25% renewable energy 30~25% thermal power 35% co-generation 15%□Ratio of primary energy nuclear 10~12% renewable energy 17~19% petroleum 34% coal 21~22% natural gas 15~16% 4
  • Scenario abandoning dependence on nuclear power in 2030■Ratio of power sources: nuclear 15% renewable energy 30% thermal power 40% co-generation 15%□Ratio of primary energy nuclear 7% renewable energy 19% petroleum 35% coal 22% natural gas 17% 5
  • Denuclearization scenario in 2030■Ratio of power sources: nuclear 0% renewable energy 35% thermal power 50% co-generation 15%□Ratio of primary energy nuclear 0% renewable energy 22% petroleum 35% coal 23% natural gas 21% 6