World Energy Outlook: The role of nuclear & renewables

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Intervenant: Fatih birol Chief Economist - Director, Global Energy Economics …

Intervenant: Fatih birol Chief Economist - Director, Global Energy Economics
International Energy Agency
thèmes: shifts in the global energy system shifting, oil & gas, nuclear & renewables, world economy
Présentation lors de la convention SFEN du 4 avril 2013. Retrouvez la vidéo de la conférence à la fin de la présentation ou sur youtube.

http://youtu.be/Mbmp49ISwrA

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  • 1. The role ofnuclear & renewables Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Paris, 3 April 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013
  • 2. The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency Changing global energy map likely to have significant implications for competiveness & geopolitics All-time high oil prices acting as brake on EU economic recovery Economy & energy: a delicate balancing act in the context of need for decisive & effective global climate change policy© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 3. Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe 100% Rest of non-OECD Non-OECD Middle East 80% India China 60% OECD 40% 20% 1975 2010 2035 Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 4. A United States oil & gas transformation US oil & gas production mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 10 Conventional gas Unconventional oil 5 Conventional oil 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 5. Different trends in oil & gas import dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Japan Gas Imports 100% 2010 2035 80% European Union 60% 40% 20% China India United States 0% Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 6. Unconventional gas: implications for both energy security & economy 8 Dollars per MBtu (2012) 16 Million tonnes US steam coal exports to EU 14 7 (right axis) 12 6 US gas price 10 5 (Henry Hub) 8 4 Europe gas price 6 3 (German import) 4 2 2 1 0 0 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 4Q2012At its highest level in 2012, EU gas prices traded about 5 times higher than in the US;a price decoupling stemming from oil indexation & the unconventional gas revolution© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 7. EU gas imports: prospects for improved pricing 156 bcm per year of EU gas import contracts expiring before 2025 by source Other: LNG Qatar: LNG Russia: pipe Egypt: LNG Nigeria: LNG Algeria: LNG Algeria: pipe Gas contracts equal to two-thirds of EU imports from external sources are expiring before 2025, at time when LNG & unconventional gas is expected to grow strongly© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 8. Economics of power generation & CO2 prices European Union, January 2013 $/MWh 100 CO2 cost 80 Fuel cost 60 40 20 0 Coal plant Gas plant Current CO2 price Break-even CO2 price 67$/tonne 8 $/tonne Each $1 per MBtu of additional gas-coal spread requires a further $15 per tonne of CO2 price to achieve cost parity© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 9. A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, 2010-2035 Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 TWh TWh Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 10. Asia leading the rise in nuclear capacity Nuclear installed gross capacity in selected regions GW 150 2011 2035 120 90 60 30 0 China European United Japan Russia India Union States & Korea Majority of nuclear additions come from just four countries – China, Korea, India & Russia – with half of world net incremental capacity from China alone© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 11. Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, 2035cents/kWh 25 20 2011 15 OECD average 10 2011 Non-OECD 5 average China United States European Union Japan Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 12. EU moving towards cleaner forms of electricity generation EU electricity generation by selected low carbon technology & share of generation by scenario TWh 1 200 100% Share of electricity generation 2010 1 000 80% Change to 2035 over 2010: 800 450 60% 600 NPS 40% 400 20% 200 0 0% Nuclear Hydro Wind Bio- Solar Other CCS Low energy PV renew. carbon Wind & solar push up the share of renewables, with low-carbon reaching two-thirds of total generation in the NPS & around 90% in the 450 Scenario© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 13. Staying within a 2°C world 2° CO2 equivalent of today’s fossil fuel reserves Gas 15% 2°C carbon Potential emissions from budget Oil fossil fuels reserves Coal 22% 2 860 Gt CO2 63% In a 2°C world, more than two-thirds of current fossil fuel reserves cannot be consumed before 2050 unless CCS is widely deployed© OECD/IEA 2013
  • 14. Conclusions Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine energy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances Shifting away from nuclear can have significant implications for a country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives Other key policies to improve European energy cost competitiveness: leverage prospect of many long-term gas contracts expiring; bolster domestic gas supply & energy efficiency; effective renewables policy© OECD/IEA 2013