Hervé Mignon the RTE Economic Prospective and Transparency Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)
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Hervé Mignon the RTE Economic Prospective and Transparency Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)

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The RTE Economic, Prospective and Transparency Director, Hervé MIGNON, explained what the Generation Adequacy Report is, from its medium-term supply-demand balance forecasts to the analysis of......

The RTE Economic, Prospective and Transparency Director, Hervé MIGNON, explained what the Generation Adequacy Report is, from its medium-term supply-demand balance forecasts to the analysis of long-term issues.

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  • 1. SFEN : Atoms for the future
  • 2. The “Generation Adequacy Report” ■ A mission entrusted to RTE ■ A forecast analysis of supply-demand balance over a 5 years time-frame ■ An analysis of long-term issues (2030 horizon) ■ An issue of security of supply in physical terms ■ A contribution to the debate on energy transition 2
  • 3. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST ANALYSIS (2014-2017)
  • 4. A structural slowdown in energy demand growth 4
  • 5. Peak demand has increased 2 to 3 times faster than annual energy demand over the past decade A steady growth of peak demand (more than 2 GW per year on average)... … essentially driven by a sharp increase of temperature sensitivity of demand since 2000 5
  • 6. The cold spell of February 2012 has resulted in a peak demand over 100 GW 6
  • 7. A continuous improvement of energy efficiency boosted by regulations 7
  • 8. A slowdown in the market share of electric space heating Investors have anticipated the new thermal regulation in residential housing Thermal regulation should lead to a lower growth of temperature-sensitive end-uses Trend in demand relating to electric heating (residential and tertiary) 8
  • 9. A depressed economic environment and lower GDP growth assumptions Source: Consensus Forecasts 9
  • 10. Trends of demand should be driven by economic conditions and demand-side management 10
  • 11. Regional disparities in demand growth remain important 11
  • 12. A slowdown in the rate of development of new wind capacity but a stronger than anticipated growth of photovoltaic capacity 12
  • 13. A decrease in thermal installed capacity according to the statements of producers and of public authorities 13
  • 14. Different load management means are available according to electricity end-uses 14
  • 15. Security of supply will be tighter starting in 2016 . . . . . . . (*) Capacity shortfall corresponds to the additional supply that is necessary to meet the adequacy criterion (loss of load expectation < 3 hours) 15
  • 16. PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERM SCENARIOS
  • 17. Long-term prospective analysis Scenarios are developed that: ■ are highly differentiated in order to cover the field of uncertainties Macroeconomics, energy policy, technological progress, etc. ■ are based on available data supplied by the market participants ■ meet the adequacy criterion Capacity shortfall is specified according to operating hours ■ will feed into network studies A need to anticipate the adaptation of the transmission network to trends in supply 17
  • 18. Four highly differentiated scenarios in order to cover the field of uncertainties Median High Demand New mix Low Growth 18
  • 19. The underlying trend should continue 19
  • 20. Coherent and differentiated visions of the supply mix through to 2030 Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 Generation Adequacy Report – Supply mix through to 2030 interconnections: 15 GW 21 GW 27 GW 27 GW 21 GW 20
  • 21. Focus on “Median” and “New Mix” scenarios Main assumptions Median New mix 82 TWh 116 TWh Nuclear capacity 56 GW 40 GW Wind power capacity 30 GW 40 GW Photovoltaic capacity 20 GW 30 GW Mid-merit & peak load capacity 29 GW 30 GW 21 GW 28 GW Energy efficiency (2011-2030 estimate) (including demand response) Interconnections A specific analysis of the impact on the supply-demand balance of nuclear capacity of 40 GW in 2025 has be carried out (cf. chapter 6.3.5 of the Generation Adequacy Report) 21
  • 22. Generation fleet trends necessarily require an significant adaptation of the transmission network ■ Development of interconnections (27 GW in 2030 in “New Mix” scenario, compared to 14 GW today) ■ Strengthening of the French network, in connection with regional plans for energy (SRCAE, S3REnR) ■ Development of new network technologies as for instance the subsea interconnections necessary to connect marine facilities to the grid 22
  • 23. Important investments are planned between now and 2020 in ten-year development plan ■ between 800 and 1,000 km of new DC underground and subsea lines ■ strengthening of between 1,000 and 2,000 km of existing 400 kV-AC transmission lines ■ about 400 km of underground AC lines (400 kV and 225 kV) ■ between 15 and 20 new 400 kV substations ■ 8 GW of new interconnection lines ■ A strong timeline issue: permitting procedures for grid expansion projects often exceed ten years nowadays. Therefore, they must be streamlined and shortened to match the time required to bring new generation infrastructure on line in order to improve the implementation of energy policy decisions. 23
  • 24. GENERATION FLEET TRENDS NECESSARILY REQUIRE AN SIGNIFICANT ADAPTATION OF THE TRANSMISSION NETWORK Source : RTE- Schéma décennal
  • 25. Economics, Forecast & Transparency Department 25