0
SFEN : Atoms for the future
The “Generation Adequacy Report”
■ A mission entrusted to RTE
■ A forecast analysis of supply-demand balance over a 5 year...
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
ANALYSIS (2014-2017)
A structural slowdown
in energy demand growth

4
Peak demand has increased 2 to 3 times
faster than annual energy demand
over the past decade
A steady growth of peak
deman...
The cold spell of February 2012
has resulted in a peak demand over 100 GW

6
A continuous improvement
of energy efficiency boosted by regulations

7
A slowdown in the market share
of electric space heating
Investors have anticipated the
new thermal regulation in
resident...
A depressed economic environment
and lower GDP growth assumptions

Source: Consensus Forecasts

9
Trends of demand should be driven
by economic conditions and demand-side
management

10
Regional disparities in demand growth
remain important

11
A slowdown in the rate of development
of new wind capacity but a stronger
than anticipated growth of photovoltaic capacity...
A decrease in thermal installed capacity
according to the statements
of producers and of public authorities

13
Different load management means
are available according to electricity end-uses

14
Security of supply will be tighter
starting in 2016

.

.

.

.

.

.

.
(*) Capacity shortfall corresponds to the additio...
PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERM
SCENARIOS
Long-term prospective analysis
Scenarios are developed that:
■ are highly differentiated in order to cover the field of un...
Four highly differentiated scenarios
in order to cover the field of uncertainties
Median

High Demand

New mix

Low Growth...
The underlying trend should continue

19
Coherent and differentiated visions
of the supply mix through to 2030
Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 Ge...
Focus on “Median” and “New Mix”
scenarios
Main assumptions

Median

New mix

82 TWh

116 TWh

Nuclear capacity

56 GW

40 ...
Generation fleet trends
necessarily require an significant
adaptation of the transmission network
■ Development of interco...
Important investments are planned between
now and 2020 in ten-year development plan
■ between 800 and 1,000 km of new DC u...
GENERATION FLEET TRENDS
NECESSARILY REQUIRE AN SIGNIFICANT
ADAPTATION OF THE TRANSMISSION
NETWORK

Source : RTE- Schéma dé...
Economics, Forecast & Transparency
Department
25
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Hervé Mignon the RTE Economic Prospective and Transparency Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)

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The RTE Economic, Prospective and Transparency Director, Hervé MIGNON, explained what the Generation Adequacy Report is, from its medium-term supply-demand balance forecasts to the analysis of long-term issues.

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Transcript of "Hervé Mignon the RTE Economic Prospective and Transparency Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)"

  1. 1. SFEN : Atoms for the future
  2. 2. The “Generation Adequacy Report” ■ A mission entrusted to RTE ■ A forecast analysis of supply-demand balance over a 5 years time-frame ■ An analysis of long-term issues (2030 horizon) ■ An issue of security of supply in physical terms ■ A contribution to the debate on energy transition 2
  3. 3. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST ANALYSIS (2014-2017)
  4. 4. A structural slowdown in energy demand growth 4
  5. 5. Peak demand has increased 2 to 3 times faster than annual energy demand over the past decade A steady growth of peak demand (more than 2 GW per year on average)... … essentially driven by a sharp increase of temperature sensitivity of demand since 2000 5
  6. 6. The cold spell of February 2012 has resulted in a peak demand over 100 GW 6
  7. 7. A continuous improvement of energy efficiency boosted by regulations 7
  8. 8. A slowdown in the market share of electric space heating Investors have anticipated the new thermal regulation in residential housing Thermal regulation should lead to a lower growth of temperature-sensitive end-uses Trend in demand relating to electric heating (residential and tertiary) 8
  9. 9. A depressed economic environment and lower GDP growth assumptions Source: Consensus Forecasts 9
  10. 10. Trends of demand should be driven by economic conditions and demand-side management 10
  11. 11. Regional disparities in demand growth remain important 11
  12. 12. A slowdown in the rate of development of new wind capacity but a stronger than anticipated growth of photovoltaic capacity 12
  13. 13. A decrease in thermal installed capacity according to the statements of producers and of public authorities 13
  14. 14. Different load management means are available according to electricity end-uses 14
  15. 15. Security of supply will be tighter starting in 2016 . . . . . . . (*) Capacity shortfall corresponds to the additional supply that is necessary to meet the adequacy criterion (loss of load expectation < 3 hours) 15
  16. 16. PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERM SCENARIOS
  17. 17. Long-term prospective analysis Scenarios are developed that: ■ are highly differentiated in order to cover the field of uncertainties Macroeconomics, energy policy, technological progress, etc. ■ are based on available data supplied by the market participants ■ meet the adequacy criterion Capacity shortfall is specified according to operating hours ■ will feed into network studies A need to anticipate the adaptation of the transmission network to trends in supply 17
  18. 18. Four highly differentiated scenarios in order to cover the field of uncertainties Median High Demand New mix Low Growth 18
  19. 19. The underlying trend should continue 19
  20. 20. Coherent and differentiated visions of the supply mix through to 2030 Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 Generation Adequacy Report – Supply mix through to 2030 interconnections: 15 GW 21 GW 27 GW 27 GW 21 GW 20
  21. 21. Focus on “Median” and “New Mix” scenarios Main assumptions Median New mix 82 TWh 116 TWh Nuclear capacity 56 GW 40 GW Wind power capacity 30 GW 40 GW Photovoltaic capacity 20 GW 30 GW Mid-merit & peak load capacity 29 GW 30 GW 21 GW 28 GW Energy efficiency (2011-2030 estimate) (including demand response) Interconnections A specific analysis of the impact on the supply-demand balance of nuclear capacity of 40 GW in 2025 has be carried out (cf. chapter 6.3.5 of the Generation Adequacy Report) 21
  22. 22. Generation fleet trends necessarily require an significant adaptation of the transmission network ■ Development of interconnections (27 GW in 2030 in “New Mix” scenario, compared to 14 GW today) ■ Strengthening of the French network, in connection with regional plans for energy (SRCAE, S3REnR) ■ Development of new network technologies as for instance the subsea interconnections necessary to connect marine facilities to the grid 22
  23. 23. Important investments are planned between now and 2020 in ten-year development plan ■ between 800 and 1,000 km of new DC underground and subsea lines ■ strengthening of between 1,000 and 2,000 km of existing 400 kV-AC transmission lines ■ about 400 km of underground AC lines (400 kV and 225 kV) ■ between 15 and 20 new 400 kV substations ■ 8 GW of new interconnection lines ■ A strong timeline issue: permitting procedures for grid expansion projects often exceed ten years nowadays. Therefore, they must be streamlined and shortened to match the time required to bring new generation infrastructure on line in order to improve the implementation of energy policy decisions. 23
  24. 24. GENERATION FLEET TRENDS NECESSARILY REQUIRE AN SIGNIFICANT ADAPTATION OF THE TRANSMISSION NETWORK Source : RTE- Schéma décennal
  25. 25. Economics, Forecast & Transparency Department 25
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