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SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008
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SEB Facts And Figures January December 2008

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  • 1. www.sebgroup.com Facts & Figures January – December 2008 1
  • 2. Contents Page SEB Group 3 – 30 Asset quality 32 – 49 Bond portfolios 50 – 59 Divisional level 60 – 66 Merchant Banking 67 – 76 Retail Banking 77 – 102 Wealth Management 103 – 114 Life 115 – 130 Macro update 131 – 140 2
  • 3. SEB – the key to North-European markets SEB has… an attractive platform high customer satisfaction resilient income generation several leading positions ...a strong customer base 2,500 large companies and financial institutions customers 400,000 SME customers 5 million private customers 3
  • 4. Organisation President & CEO Annika Falkengren Group Credits & CFO Group IT Group Risk Control Jan Erik Back Ulf Thorstensson Johan Andersson Business Support & Compliance HR & Org. Dev. Group Operations Group Staff Gent Jansson Ingrid Engström Pia Warnerman Bo Magnusson, Deputy CEO Internal Audit Group Strategy & Group Staff Business Planning Agneta Brevenhag* Bo Magnusson Hans Larsson Merchant Retail Banking Wealth Life Banking Management Magnus Carlsson Mats Torstendahl Fredrik Boheman Anders Mossberg * Reports directly to the Board 4
  • 5. Share of operating profit Jan – Dec 2008 Merchant Lithuania Germany Life Banking Latvia Wealth 6% 6% Estonia Management 7% 3% Finland 3% 13% Denmark 4% 4% 53% Norway 27% 9% 65% Sweden Retail Banking Geography – Adjusted for Other Divisions – Adjusted for Other Sweden – adjusted for centralisation of CPM portfolio 5
  • 6. Ratings of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Rating target set by SEB's board of directors at AA Moody’s S&P Fitch DBRS Bank Senior Rating Short Term P-1 A-1 F-1 R-1 (middle) Long Term A1 A A+ AA (low) Outlook Negative Negative Stable Stable Last Action Rating action Outlook change Outlook change Unaffected rating Date April-09 Mar-09 Jul-08 Jul-08 6
  • 7. Key figures SEB Group Change Q4 Jan-Dec Q3 Q4 Jan-Dec SEK m 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Operating income 12,714 41,140 38% 27% 2% Operating expenses -6,965 -25,407 17% 17% 10% Operating profit 4,028 12,471 59% -12% -27% Net profit 3,507 10,050 86% -7% -26% Return on Equity, % 17.6 13.1 7.6 -2.6 -6.2 Cost / income ratio 0.55 0.62 -0.10 -0.04 0.05 Credit loss level, % 0.63 0.30 0.36 0.50 0.19 Basel II - fully implemented Tier I capital ratio, % 10.1 10.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Risk-weighted assets, SEK bn 818 818 48 81 81 7
  • 8. Profit and loss account Q4 2008 vs. Q4 2007 SEK m Q4 Q4 Change Excluding 2008 2007 % portfolios Net interest income 5,513 4,375 26 Net fee and commissions 3,790 4,129 -8 Net financial income 1,723 420 Net life insurance income 516 766 -33 Net other income 1,172 345 Total operating income 12,714 10,035 27 17% Staff costs -4,597 -3,787 21 Other expenses -1,968 -1,782 10 Depreciation of assets -400 -359 11 Total operating expenses -6,965 -5,928 17 Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 2 787 -100 Net credit losses etc -1,723 -313 Operating profit 4,028 4,581 -12 -24% Net profit 3,507 3,757 -7 -19% 8
  • 9. Profit and loss account Q4 2008 vs. Q3 2008 SEK m Q4 Q3 Change Excluding 2008 2008 % portfolios Net interest income 5,513 4,553 21 Net fee and commissions 3,790 3,754 1 Net financial income 1,723 247 Net life insurance income 516 504 2 Net other income 1,172 163 Total operating income 12,714 9,221 38 41% Staff costs -4,597 -3,752 23 Other expenses -1,968 -1,820 8 Depreciation of assets -400 -398 1 Total operating expenses -6,965 -5,970 17 Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 2 Net credit losses etc -1,723 -725 138 Operating profit 4,028 2,526 59 71% Net profit 3,507 1,886 86 97% 9
  • 10. Profit and loss account Jan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007 SEK m Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change Excluding 2008 2007 % portfolios Net interest income 18,710 15,998 17 Net fee and commissions 15,254 17,051 -11 Net financial income 2,970 3,239 -8 Net life insurance income 2,375 2,933 -19 Net other income 1,831 1,219 50 Total operating income 41,140 40,440 2 0% Staff costs -16,241 - 14,921 9 Other expenses -7,642 - 6,919 10 Depreciations/amortisations -1,524 - 1,354 13 Total operating expenses -25,407 - 23,194 10 Gain/loss tangible/intangible assets 6 788 -99 Net credit losses etc -3,268 - 1,016 Operating profit 12,471 17,018 -27 -28% Net Profit 10,050 13,642 -26 -27% 10
  • 11. SEB Group Income, Expenses and Operating profit, SEK m Excluding portfolios Income Expenses 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 * 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 Operating profit 6 000 ** 4 000 * 2 000 0 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- -2 000 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 * One-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005 ** Including sales of Baltic properties in Q4 2007 of SEK 785m 11
  • 12. Net interest income analysis SEB Group Jan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007 SEK m 796 481 823 1,218 -606 18,710 15,998 Jan-Dec Lending Lending Deposit Deposit Funding & Jan-Dec 2007 margin volume margin volume other 2008 12
  • 13. Net interest income analysis SEB Group Q4 2008 vs. Q4 2007 SEK m 457 180 143 343 15 5,513 4,375 Q4 2007 Lending Lending Deposit Deposit Funding & Q4 2008 margin volume margin volume other 13
  • 14. Net interest income analysis SEB Group Q4 2008 vs. Q3 2008 SEK m 811 147 253 80 -331 5,513 4,553 Q3 2008 Lending Lending Deposit Deposit Funding & Q4 2008 margin volume margin volume other 14
  • 15. Net interest and Net fee and commission income SEB Group, SEK m 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 Net interest income Net fee and commissions 15
  • 16. Fee and commission income Gross quarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008 SEB Group, SEK m Capital market driven Value driven – 2,500 performance Non-capital driven market driven 2,000 Securities transaction driven * 1,500 1,000 Deal driven 500 0 New issues & Secondary Custody & Payment, cards, Other advisory market & mutual funds structured derivatives lending, deposits, * Q2 2006 adjusted for gross commission on security lending, guarantees SEK 200m 16
  • 17. Net financial, Life insurance and Other income Quarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008 SEB Group, SEK m 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Net financial income Net life insurance income Net other income -500 17
  • 18. Cost development per quarter Quarterly development Q1 2004 – Q4 2008* SEB Group, SEK m 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 ** 500 0 Staff costs Other expenses Restructuring costs * Include capitalisation of acquisition cost in Life from Q1 2005 – onwards ** One-off charges of SEK 890m in Q4 2005 and 600m in Q4 2008 18
  • 19. Cost management Total expenses, Jan-Dec 2008 vs. Jan-Dec 2007 SEK 1,029m from the start of 2007 170 1,691 768 1,004 -937 -483 25,407 25,122 23,194 Jan-Dec Inflation Organic Depreciation Variable Cost before Efficiency Redundancy Jan-Dec 2007 growth + salaries efficiency gains cost 2008 Acq gains 19
  • 20. Return on equity SEB Group, per cent Excluding portfolios Return on Equity 21.1 20.8 19.3 15.8 14.7 14.2 13.1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20
  • 21. Cost/income ratio SEB Group C/I ratio Excluding portfolio losses 0.65 0.65 0.62 0.58 0.57 0.60 0.55 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 21
  • 22. Basic earnings per share SEB Group, SEK Excluding portfolios Earnings per share 21,83 18,72 19,97 15,78 12,58 14,66 10,83 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 22
  • 23. Operating profit, 12 months rolling SEB Group*, SEK m 45,000 40,000 Income 35,000 30,000 25,000 Expenses 20,000 15,000 Operating 10,000 profit 5,000 0 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 * Excluding one-off charges 23
  • 24. Impact from exchange rate fluctuations SEB Group EUR period end USD period end 12.00 8.50 11.50 8.00 11.00 7.50 10.50 10.00 7.00 9.50 6.50 9.00 6.00 8.50 8.00 5.50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 SEK m F-y 2008 H2/H1-08 Q4/Q3-08 Income 509 380 305 Expenses -293 -250 -210 Operating profit 150 45 10 SEK bn Loans to the public 78 59 Deposits to the public 64 48 RWA- Basel I 80 60 Balance sheet 209 156 24
  • 25. Assets under management SEB Group, SEK bn Assets under management year-end 2007 1,370 Inflow 295 (14%) Outflow -261 (29%) Acquisition/disposal net 17 Change in value -220 (-523%) Assets under management year-end 2008 1,201 * * Of which: Retail Banking 74 Wealth Management 1,142 Life 346 25
  • 26. SEB Group net inflow AuM Jan – Dec 2008, SEK bn 2.3 1.3 -0.7 -11.6 43.0 34.3 Sweden Other Nordic Germany Baltic countries Other & Elim Group & Poland 26
  • 27. Balance sheet Dec 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2007 Cash and balances with central banks 44,852 18,733 96,871 Loans to credit institutions 266,363 300,591 263,012 Loans to the public 1,296,777 1,226,633 1,067,341 Financial assets at fair value 635,454 620,099 661,223 Available-for-sale financial assets 163,115 171,464 170,137 Held-to-maturity investments 1,997 2,067 1,798 Investment in associates 1,129 1,387 1,257 Tangible and intangible assets 29,511 27,163 24,697 Other assets 71,504 50,154 58,126 Total assets 2,510,702 2,418,291 2,344,462 Deposits by credit institutions 429,425 399,940 421,348 Deposits and borrowings from the public 841,034 794,266 750,481 Liabilities to policyholders 211,070 206,473 225,916 Debt securities 525,219 554,257 510,564 Financial liabilities at fair value 295,533 248,142 216,390 Other liabilities 71,565 90,500 97,519 Provisions 1,897 1,378 1,536 Subordinated liabilities 51,230 45,736 43,989 Total equity 83,729 77,599 76,719 Total liabilities and equity 2,510,702 2,418,291 2,344,462 27
  • 28. Relationship Deposits from and Lending to the public 2001 – 2008 Deposits to loans ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 28
  • 29. Funding structure SEB Group, Dec 2008 SEK 1,787bn Deposits – Financial Mortgage covered institutions 15% bonds Sweden 10% Commercial paper/ Certificates of Deposits – General deposit 8% public 42% Deposits – Central banks 7% Public covered bonds Germany 7% Senior debt 2% Schuldscheins and Subordinated debt Mortgage covered Registered bonds 3% bonds Germany 3% 3% * Over collateral within cover pools SEK 48bn, which may be used for further covered bond issuance or pledged for central bank borrowing. 29
  • 30. Net liquidity position across maturities 31 Dec, SEK bn SEK bn 140 SEB is match- Year-end 2008 120 funded approx. 6-8 months 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 week 2 weeks 4 weeks 2 months 3 months 4 months 5 months 6 months 6-7m 7-8m 9 months 9-10m 10-11m 12 months -20 -40 6-8 months matched funding, i.e. based on no access to capital markets, no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of business activities. 30
  • 31. Capital adequacy SEB Group Basel II Total capital ratio, % (without transition rules) Tier I capital ratio, % 14.6 * Basel I 12.6 12.8 9,3% 11.5 10.8 10.5 10.3 10.2 12.1 Basel I 10.1 9.9 8.2 7,3% 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec SEK bn 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 Basel I Capital base 52.7 54.7 58.7 76.2 85.8 93.0 100.3 121.0 1,127 Risk-w. Assets 503 535 570 704 741 737 818 818 * Proforma after capital measures 31
  • 32. Asset quality 32
  • 33. Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK 1,934bn By sector Banks Public Corporates 15% Administration 6% 40% 25% 14% Households Property Management 33
  • 34. Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn Dec 2008 (Dec 2007) Swedish Other German Baltic Total Nordic* Corporates 391 (293) 175 (123) 120 (72) 95 (83) 782 (571) Property Management 105 (82) 22 (18) 104 (87) 32 (26) 262 (212) Households 269 (248) 45 (45) 104 (87) 68 (55) 486 (434) Public Administration 32 (16) 2 (3) 79 (66) 6 (3) 119 (88) Total non-banks 797 (637) 244 (189) 407 (312) 200 (166) 1,649 (1,304) Banks 175 (152) 41 (35) 68 (58) 2 (3) 286 (248) Total 972 (790) 285 (223) 475 (369) 202 (169) 1,934 (1,552) Currency effect, SEK bn +41 +61 +27 +129 * Incl. other 34
  • 35. Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn Dec -05 Dec -06 Dec -07 Sep -08 Dec -08 Corporates 494 484 571 720 782 Property Management 192 192 212 245 262 Households 319 374 434 469 486 Public Administration 125 97 88 113 119 Total non-banks 1,130 1,146 1,304 1,547 1,649 Banks 198 169 248 258 286 Total 1,328 1,315 1,552 1,805 1,934 35
  • 36. Credit exposure – households SEK bn Mortgage Other 486 434 374 319 115 104 105 79 371 330 269 240 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 36
  • 37. Households credit portfolio SEK bn Mortgage Other 79 78 78 76 73 68 235 235 236 219 227 186 25 22 21 20 20 27 12 11 11 11 10 79 72 70 67 68 10 55 55 50 47 45 44 28 Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec '06 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '06 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '06 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 Nordic Germany Baltics 37
  • 38. Corporate credit exposure – by industry SEB Group, SEK bn 782 12% 16% 571 11% 494 484 10% 29% 19% 3% Finance and insurance Wholesale and retail Transportation Other service sectors Dec Dec Dec Dec Construction Manufacturing 2005 2006 2007 2008 Other 38
  • 39. Property management – by geography* SEB Group, SEK bn Commercial Multi-family 3.3% 1.2% 262 8.1% 6.4% 212 93 192 192 2.8% 40.3% 75 3.4% 81 90 169 137 111 101 34.5% Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Sweden Germany Estonia Latvia Lithuania Other Nordic Other European Other * By obligor’s domicile 39
  • 40. Impaired loan volumes* % of Credit Exposure** SEB Group Germany Nordic Baltic 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec '03 '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 * Impaired loans gross * *Excluding Banks 40
  • 41. Impaired loans and reserves SEB Group, SEK m Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Impaired loans Non-performing, gross (60 days) 7,957 7,123 7,619 12,963 Performing, gross 1,144 1,403 772 948 Impaired loans, gross 9,101 8,526 8,391 13,911 Specific reserves 4,787 4,234 3,787 5,022 Collective reserves 2,283 2,170 2,602 4,197 Off-balance sheet reserves 268 215 209 251 Total reserves 7,338 6,619 6,598 9,470 Reserve ratio 77.7% 75.1% 76.1% 66,3% 41
  • 42. Level of net credit losses, % Estonia 1.17 Latvia 1.43 Lithuania 1.26. Baltics 1.28 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Germany Baltics Nordics SEB Group 42
  • 43. Credit losses and build up of reserves SEB Group, SEK m Sum Average/ Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change 8 quarters quarter 2007 2008 Net credit losses, quarterly 2007 – 2008 Provisions Net collective provisions -1,693 -212 -390 -1,303 -913 Specific provisions 2,371 -296 - 653 -1,718 -1,065 Reversals of specific provisions no longer required 741 93 405 336 -69 Net provisions for contingent liabilities -48 -6 8 -56 -64 Net provisions (build-up of reserve) -3,371 -421 - 630 -2,741 -2,111 Write-offs Total write-offs -2,823 -353 - 1,395 -1,428 -33 Reversal of specific provisions utilized for write-offs 1,410 176 711 699 -12 Write-offs not previously provided for -1,413 -177 - 684 -729 -45 Recovered from previous write-offs 532 67 293 239 -54 Net write-offs -881 -110 - 391 -490 -99 Net credit losses -4,252 -532 - 1,021 -3,231 -2,210 Change in value of seized assets -32 -4 5 -37 -42 Net credit losses incl change in value -4,284 -536 -1,016 -3,268 -2,252 43
  • 44. Credit losses and build up of reserves quarterly development SEB Group, SEK m Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Net credit losses, quarterly 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 Provisions Net collective provisions -89 212 -114 -220 -71 15 -112 11 -318 -884 Specific provisions -124 -455 -245 -77 -100 -231 -190 -409 -331 -787 Reversals of specific provisions no longer required 133 173 75 87 80 163 44 79 71 142 Net provisions for contingent liabilities 1 10 31 -7 8 -24 1 2 -23 -36 Net provisions (build-up of reserve) -80 -60 -253 -217 -83 -77 -257 -317 -601 -1,566 Write-offs Total write-offs -334 -444 -243 -240 -350 -562 -332 -367 -265 -464 Reversal of specific provisions utilized for write-offs 196 221 124 131 214 242 201 217 71 210 Write-offs not previously provided for -138 -223 -119 -109 -136 -320 -131 -150 -194 -254 Recovered from previous write-offs 81 62 135 43 30 85 24 19 79 117 Net write-offs -57 -161 16 -66 -106 -235 -107 -131 -115 -137 Net credit losses -137 -221 -237 -283 -189 -312 -364 -448 -716 -1,703 Change in value of seized assets 1 -1 3 3 - -1 -4 -4 -9 -20 Net credit losses incl change in value -136 -222 -234 -280 -189 -313 -368 -452 -725 -1,723 44
  • 45. Baltic countries – credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania 95.2 Banks 76.4 29 Public 56.6 22 56.3 49.8 Administration 50.0 16 13 40.7 41.4 13 Households 23 16 19 33.6 8 14 14 7 10 9 8 46 5 8 Property 4 39 34 25 23 22 21 Management 18 17 Corporate Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec '06 '07 '08 '06 '07 '08 '06 '07 '08 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2006 2007 2008 YTD +5% +40% +18% +47% +30% +8% +38% +17% -2% Growth rates in local currency 45
  • 46. Baltic countries – credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania 89.3 95.2 82.9 76.4 78.6 Banks 29 56.6 26 Public 24 50.0 49.5 51.0 52.3 23 22 41.4 41.1 42.3 44.0 49.8 Administration 16 15 13 13 13 23 Households 20 16 19 20 19 14 14 14 14 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 5 46 5 5 45 42 39 40 Property 25 22 23 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 Management Corporates Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 +18% 0% +3% +1% +1% +30% +4% +4% +4% -5% +17% 0% +2% -1% -3% Growth rates in local currency 46
  • 47. Baltic countries - asset quality Net credit losses Impaired Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 loans, % 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 Q1 2007 – Q4 2008, SEK m 600 Estonia 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 500 Corporate 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 Private 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.1 400 Latvia 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.8 300 Corporate 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2 Private 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.9 200 Lithuania 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 3.0 100 Corporate 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 3.8 0 Private 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Corporate including Property Management Impaired loans gross 47
  • 48. Baltic countries Impaired loans and reserves December 2008, SEK m SEB SEB SEB Total Estonia Latvia Lithuania Baltic Impaired loans, 1,287 1,346 2,867 5,499 gross Specific reserves 380 173 791 1,344 Collective 546 603 612 1,761 Off balance 0 0 0 0 reserves Impaired loans Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SEK m 07 08 08 08 08 Total reserves 926 776 1,404 3,105 Estonia 186 334 819 1,019 1,287 Reserve ratio 71.9% 57.7% 49.0% 56.5% Corporate 47 132 570 657 799 Private 138 202 249 362 488 Latvia 218 301 444 694 1,346 Corporate 84 86 152 285 722 Private 134 216 292 410 624 Lithuania 573 682 819 1,037 2,867 Corporate 398 416 492 633 2,377 Private 176 266 327 404 490 48
  • 49. Baltic countries – net credit losses Jan – Dec 2008, SEK m Estonia Latvia Lithuania Total % Net write-offs & actual losses 0 -13 -1 -15 0.8 Net new specific provisions -323 -142 -357 -822 46.3 Net new collective provisions -184 -352 -376 -912 51.4 Change in value of seized assets -4 -4 -18 -26 1.5 Net credit losses -512 -512 -752 -1,775 49
  • 50. Bond portfolios 50
  • 51. SEB bond portfolio* 31 December 2008 Acc 2007- Mark-to-market losses over Fixed-income securities portfolio – income of SEK 2,838m SEK 355bn – equity of SEK 3,605m 8 – Loans & Receivables (MTM not recorded) of SEK 6,875m 24 The losses are expected to be 222 133 101 recovered over time Further volatility from the mark-to- market is expected; however with limited impact on income since Trading and Treasury etc investment portfolio classification is: Investments (MB Credit & Portfolio – 76 per cent Loans & Receivables, Management) Held for trading (MTM over income) – 18 per cent Available-for-sale and Available for sale (MTM over equity) – 6 per cent Held-for Trading Loans & Receivables (MTM not recorded) *Net of short and fully matched positions; excluding holdings in the insurance business 51
  • 52. SEB bond portfolio* 31 December, 2008, SEK bn ABS 19% Cover pool 27% Merchant Banking 190 Group Treasury 156 Other divisions 9 Financials 20% Total 355 Corp, Gov't etc 15% Covered bonds 19% *Net of short and fully matched positions; excluding holdings in the insurance business 52
  • 53. Merchant Banking bond portfolios 31 December, 2008 Trading Investments Capital Markets and other Credit & Portfolio Management 15% 4% 51% 39% 21% 60% 10% Structured credits Financial institutions Corporate bonds Financial institutions Covered bonds Gov't Covered bonds Volume SEK 59bn Volume SEK 133bn 53
  • 54. Bond investment portfolio – status 31 December, 2008 (31 December, 2007) Structured credits Financial institutions Volume: SEK 68bn (71) Volume: SEK 52bn (55) AAA-rating: 93.0% (99.3) No level 3 assets No level 3 assets No impaired assets Still amortising, no impaired assets Covered bonds etc. SEK 13bn (5) 2007 2008 Acc Q3 08 Q4 08 P/L -1,769 -1,069 -2,838 56 -187 Equity -698 -2,907 -3,605 -635 -585 MTM (SEK m) -2,467 -3,976 -6,443 -579 -772 The unrealised valuation loss on the fixed-income securities reclassified during 2008 amounted to SEK 6,875m at year-end 2008. 54
  • 55. Bond investment portfolio – financial effects 31 December, 2008, SEK m Structured credits Financial institutions 2007 2008 Acc Q3 08 Q4 08 2007 2008 Acc Q3 08 Q4 08 P/L -1,056 -1,070 -2,126 27 -262 P/L -563 -9 -572 84 11 Equity -626 -1,460 -2,086 -187 -271 Equity -72 -667 -739 -113 -64 -1,682 -2,530 -4,212 -160 -533 -635 -676 -1,311 -29 -53 + Covered bonds etc accumulated -920 2007 2008 Acc Q3 08 Q4 08 P/L -1,769 -1,069 -2,838 56 -187 Equity -585 -698 -2,907 -3,605 -635 MTM (SEKm) -772 -2,467 -3,976 -6,443 -579 55
  • 56. Bond investment portfolio – strategy 1. Limit P/L volatility by increasing AFS portfolios and reducing HFT portfolios. 2. Use IAS 39 possibility to reclassify holdings to further limit volatility. Held for trading Available for sale Loans and Receivables SEKbn (MTM over income) (MTM over equity) (MTM not recorded) Q4 08 Q4 07 56 45 41 30 29 26 13 57 5 34 0 0 0 ABS Financial Covered ABS Financial Covered institutions bonds etc. institutions bonds etc. 56
  • 57. Distribution of bond investment portfolio 31 December, 2008 Financial institutions Structured credits SEK 52bn SEK 68bn DK IT 6% SE 4% FI 2% Other 5% DE 2% 15% NL US IT 6% 7% 35% Other NL 7% 2% FR 8% Pan Europé US 26% 22% ES 17% UK ES 16% UK 13% 7% 57
  • 58. Main characteristics of structured credits portfolio 31 December, 2008 Structured credits SEK 68bn A high quality investment portfolio initiated 1998 with fixed-income RMBS securities eligible as central bank prime collateral 33% RMBS 655 positions, well diversified across Non products, asset classes and geographies prime 5% 93.0% of the portfolio is rated Aaa/AAA, only 1.8% below investment grade – Since the summer 2007, 60 of 655 ABS positions have been downgraded 16% CMO Mark-to-market prices applied to all 13% positions - no level 3 assets Current average expected maturity ~3,5 CDO 7% years CMBS 7% Current annual amortisation rate is SEK CLO ~10bn 19% 58
  • 59. Bond investment portfolio Structured credits – rating composition (S&P, Moody’s and Fitch) Outstanding volumes, 31 December, 2008 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 93.0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0% AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC/CC 59
  • 60. Please note: A restatement of the divisional financial reporting has been carried out in conjunction with the Q1 2008 report as previously announced. Please consult www.sebgroup.com for more information. Divisional level 60
  • 61. Operating profit per division Jan – Dec 2008 vs. Jan – Dec 2007 SEK m Excl. portfolio losses Change ROE vs. Jan-Dec 2007 Jan-Dec 2008 Merchant Banking 22.3% (25.0%) 22% (9%) Retail Banking -29% 12.7% Income Op.profit Sweden: +5% -1% Wealth Germany: -3% -50% -24% 21.9% Estonia: +7% -49% Management Latvia: -5% -77% Lithuania: +5% -53% Kort: +8% -15% Jan-Dec 2008 -41% 12.5% Life Jan-Dec 2007 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 61
  • 62. Volumes Affected by restated volumes Public lending SEK bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 MB 465 492 459 483 526 531 606 645 Retail Banking 468 483 493 513 518 545 561 586 RB Sweden 256 264 271 279 286 303 307 309 RB Estonia 37 39 40 42 42 43 44 48 RB Latvia 31 35 34 36 35 36 37 41 RB Lithuania 46 50 54 59 60 64 69 76 RB Germany 85 81 80 81 81 82 87 95 RB Cards 13 14 14 14 14 17 17 17 Wealth Management 30 31 33 32 31 29 28 28 Life - - - - - - - - Other/Elim 54 42 36 39 24 27 31 38 SEB Group 1,017 1,048 1,021 1,067 1,099 1,132 1,226 1,297 62
  • 63. Volumes Public deposit SEK bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 MB 371 384 364 389 409 392 426 433 Retail Banking 231 249 249 262 257 264 269 287 RB Sweden 130 139 139 145 145 149 151 153 RB Estonia 18 20 20 22 20 22 22 25 RB Latvia 16 17 17 18 17 18 17 19 RB Lithuania 25 26 26 30 28 28 30 32 RB Germany 43 46 46 48 47 47 49 58 RB Cards - - - - - - - - Wealth Management 47 54 51 53 54 56 52 48 Life - - - - - - - - Other/Elim 20 28 43 46 45 46 47 73 SEB Group 670 715 707 750 765 758 794 841 63
  • 64. FTEs, end of quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 MB 2,540 2,568 2,550 2,672 2,742 2,760 2,719 2,698 Retail Banking 8,655 8,912 8,807 8,925 8,995 9,325 9,139 8,951 RB Sweden 2,742 2,812 2,660 2,736 2,733 2,875 2,738 2,720 RB Estonia 1,011 1,095 1,061 1,061 1,048 1,084 1,046 1,036 RB Latvia 1,052 1,089 1,117 1,118 1,108 1,122 1,093 1,006 RB Lithuania 1,333 1,387 1,428 1,492 1,520 1,579 1,652 1,624 RB Germany 1,668 1,699 1,728 1,733 1,802 1,830 1,794 1,746 RB Cards 849 830 813 785 784 835 816 819 Wealth Management 1,099 1,050 1,064 1,073 1,160 1,143 1,123 1,088 Life 1,194 1,203 1,199 1,218 1,222 1,235 1,250 1,226 Other/Elim 5,842 5,886 5,820 5,906 7,091 7,182 7,197 7,170 SEB Group 19,330 19,619 19,440 19,794 21,210* 21,645 21,428 21,131 * Whereof 1,039 encompasses the consolidated acquisitions of Factorial bank in Ukraine and Key Asset Management. 64
  • 65. Summary per division Jan – Dec 2008 Merchant Retail Wealth Banking Banking Management Life Other Group Operating profit, SEK m 8,350 4,262 2,011 1,063 -3,215 12,471 Business equity, SEK bn 27 25.3 ** 6.6 7.5 76.4 * Return on equity, % 22.3 12.7 21.9 12.5 13.1 Cost / income ratio 0.45 0.61 0.57 0.67 0.62 RWA, SEK bn, Basel II 538 390 44 14 986 RWA, SEK bn, Basel I 613 439 24 51 1,127 28%*** 28%*** Tax Rate 24% 12% * Average shareholders' equity ** Where of Sweden 7.4bn Estonia 3.3bn, Latvia 3.1bn, Lithuania 4.4bn, Germany 4.5bn and Cards 2.6bn. *** As from Jan 2009, the tax rate is 26.3%. 65
  • 66. Summary per division Jan – Dec 2008 Without floor Merchant Retail Wealth Banking Banking Management Life Other Group Operating profit, SEK m 8,350 4,262 2,011 1,063 -3,215 12,471 Business equity, SEK bn 27 25.3 ** 6.6 7.5 76.4 * Return on equity, % 22.3 12.7 21.9 12.5 13.1 Cost / income ratio 0.45 0.61 0.57 0.67 0.62 RWA, SEK bn, Basel II 463 268 44 43 818 RWA, SEK bn, Basel I 613 439 24 51 1,127 28%*** 28%*** Tax Rate 24% 12% * Average shareholders' equity ** Where of Sweden 7.4bn Estonia 3.3bn, Latvia 3.1bn, Lithuania 4.4bn, Germany 4.5bn and Cards 2.6bn. *** As from Jan 2009, the tax rate is 26.3%. 66
  • 67. RoE and cost/income ratio per division Return on Equity per division, per cent 50 40 30 20 10 0 Merchant Retail Banking Wealth Life* Group Banking Management Jan - Dec 2007 Jan - Dec 2008 Cost/income ratio per division 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Merchant Retail Banking Wealth Life Group Banking Management Jan - Dec 2007 Jan - Dec 2008 * Based on operating profit 67
  • 68. Merchant Banking Highlights Magnus Carlsson Head of Income and operating profit the Merchant Banking highest to date Strong business volumes and Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007 customer demand SEK m Lower investment banking revenues Total income 16,828 12% offset by increases in commercial Interest, net 7,414 32% banking Commission, net 5,248 -12% Credit loss provisions increase from Financial, net 3,625 39% a low level – in general asset quality remains Total expenses -7,579 -3% stable Credit losses, net -904 177% – continued conservative approach Operating profit 8,350 22% to provisioning RoE, % 22.3 18.7 C/I 0.45 0.52 68
  • 69. Merchant Banking SEK m Excluding portfolios Income Expenses 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit Excluding portfolios 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 69
  • 70. Share of income and result by area Jan – Dec 2008, per cent of total Income Operating profit Global Transaction Trading and Global Transaction Trading and Services Capital Markets Services Capital Markets 19% 17% 47% 32% 51% 34% Corporate Corporate Banking Banking 70
  • 71. Trading and Capital Markets SEK m Excluding portfolios Income Expenses 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit Excluding portfolios 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 71
  • 72. Trading and Capital Markets – focus on client driven activities Trading and Capital Markets income by main product cluster, excl. investment portfolios Focus on customer flows ensures continued strong -3% revenues 21% 11% Continued strong results in FX 8% 7% 19% 6% 5% 8% -2% 11% 15% 8% 22% 3% Lower volumes but increased 12% 6% market shares in Equities 44% 50% 59% 46% 46% 45% 44% 63% Normalisation of results in fixed income units 38% 36% 44% 41% 26% 28% 33% Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 07 08 Equities FX Capital Markets Structured Derivatives and other TCM 72
  • 73. Corporate Banking SEK m Income Expenses 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 73
  • 74. Global Transaction Services SEK m Income Expenses 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 400 300 200 100 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 74
  • 75. Custody volume development Assets under custody, SEK bn No of transactions/day 180,000 7,000 160,000 6,000 140,000 5,000 120,000 4,000 100,000 80,000 3,000 60,000 2,000 40,000 1,000 20,000 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 75
  • 76. Merchant Banking Investment banking rankings Market Shares Nordic Stock Exchanges * Nordic M&A** Jan – Dec 2008 Jan – Dec 2008 (EUR m) SEB 9.2% 18,987 16 Deals JP Morgan Deutsche SHB 5.4% 14 Deals 16,574 Bank Morgan Morgan 5.2% 13,327 15 Deals Stanley Stanley Carnegie 4.3% 12,978 UBS 19 Deals Danske Bank 3.9% 37 Deals 9,762 SEB *Source: The Nordic Stock exchanges **Rank based on announced deals. All Nordic involvement. Source: Thomson Reuters 76
  • 77. Merchant Banking – Recent rankings Best Trade Finance bank, Nordic Region, Sweden, Latvia and Lithuania Best Overall Bank for Cash Management, Nordic Region January 2009 Best Bank for Liquidity Management, Nordic Region Best Bank for Risk Management, Nordic Region January 2009 Top rated in Central and Eastern Europe February 2009 Best Arranger Nordic Loans 2008 January 2009 Best Equity House in the Nordic region Best Cash Management Bank, Nordic Region January 2009 Best Financial Supply Chain Bank, Nordic Region and Eastern Europe No. 1 Globally for Overall Customer Satisfaction regarding Cash Management October 2008 Best for Real Estate Commercial Banking in the Nordic and Baltic region Thomson Rueters September 2008 Best Trade Bank in Northern Europe & Scandinavia Extel July 2008 Best M&A House in the Nordic & Baltic region July 2008 Best derivatives dealer in Sweden June 2008 Best research house in the Nordic countries World’s Best Developed Market Banks 2008, no. 1 in Sweden April 2008 World’s Best Emerging Market Banks 2008 Central and Eastern Europe, no. 1 in Latvia and Lithuania February 2008 Best Arranger Structured Products, Sweden January 2008 Best Corporate Finance House in the Nordic Region* * Survey executed every 2nd year 77
  • 78. Retail Banking Highlights Mats Torstendahl Head of Retail Banking Stable income, despite turbulent year – NII +11% vs. 2007 offsets low security related fees Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007 SEK m Cost growth affected by currency effects, Baltic real estate sale and Total income 17,032 3% higher pension cost Interest, net 10,750 11% Profit before credit losses stable Commission, net 5,641 -9% (-1% vs 2007) Total expenses -10,392 6% Decrease in operating profit driven by increased provisions, mainly in the Credit losses, net -2,380 233% Baltic countries and Cards Operating profit 4,262 -29% Risk management and cost key focus RoE, % 12.7 18.8 areas across all business areas C/I 0.61 0.59 78
  • 79. Retail Banking SEK m Income Expenses 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 79
  • 80. Share of income and result by area Jan – Dec 2008, per cent of total Income Operating profit Cards Cards Sweden Sweden 17% Lithuania 15% 38% 13% Lithuania 13% 56% Latvia 7% 4% Latvia 7% 8% 19% 3% Estonia Estonia Germany Germany 80
  • 81. Business volume development by area SEK bn Q4 2008 change vs. Q4 2007 (local currency) Other lending Deposits Mortgages 68 152 5% Sweden 241 8% 8% 23 58 Germany 4% 71 0% 0% 31 25 Estonia -2% 17 4% -3% 29 19 Latvia 12 -10% 5% 2% 58 32 Lithuania 18 -6% 28% 5% Note: Figures for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania include SEB:s large corporate business volumes Swedish Other lending growth adjusted for transfered leasing volumes 81
  • 82. Deposit breakdown Transaction account private Percent of total deposits, Dec 2008 Transaction account corporate & public 13% 25% 41%21% Savings account private Savings account corporate & public Retail Total Sweden Germany 2% 10% 9% 16% 24% 48% 47% 23% 45% 21% 52% 3% Estonia Latvia Lithuania 11% 17% 18% 21% 24% 26% 24% 38% 35% 22% 27% 37% 82
  • 83. Development of lending market SEB Swedbank shares – Baltics DnB Nord Parex Banka Per cent, Jan 2005 – Dec 2008 Sampo/Danske bank Nordea Estonia* Latvia Lithuania 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 06 07 08 06 07 08 06 07 08 * Sampo as per Q1 2008 Swedbank as per Q2 2008 83
  • 84. Retail Sweden Δ 2007 SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Highlights Total income 6.484 5% SEB #1 market position for Swedish Interest, net 4.726 15% household savings (SEB Commission, net 1.490 -15% Sparbarometer) Best SME bank 2008 according to Total expenses -3.916 5% Privata Affärer Credit losses, net -191 197% Continued growth in mortgages and Operating profit 2.377 -1% deposits, +8% and +5% respectively RoE, % 23.1 24.1 Stable mortgage margin development during 2008 C/I 0.60 0.60 Growth in attractive client segments, Total lending* 308.700 7% e.g. more than 10 000 new SME clients Total deposits 152.400 5% * Adjusted for moved leasing volumes, lending increased with 10% 84
  • 85. Business volume development Retail Sweden, SEK bn Corporate Private Other lending* Mortgages Deposits 250 250 250 200 200 200 150 150 150 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 * Excluding leasing 85
  • 86. Market share development Sweden, per cent Corporate Private Other lending Mortgages* Deposits 20 30 20 25 15 15 20 10 15 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Note: Other lending and deposits=SEB Parent Bank Sweden, i.e. not only Retail Sweden * New measurement method from Q4 2007. Lowers the volume market share with approximately 0.2 percentage points 86
  • 87. Mortgages private market Retail Sweden, market share, per cent Sales Volume 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 05 06 07 08 * New measurement method from Q4 2007. Lowers the volume market share with approximately 0.2 percentage points 87
  • 88. Mortgages private market Total Sweden, volumes and margins Outstanding volume, SEK bn Average margin 250 1.25% 200 1.00% 150 0.75% 100 0.50% 50 0.25% 0 0.00% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 88
  • 89. Mortgages private market Sweden, customers’ choice of fixed / floating interest rates 100% 80% 60% Fixed Floating 40% 20% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 89
  • 90. Retail Germany Δ 2007 Highlights SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Total income 3,250 -3% Increased deposit volumes (+4% local Interest, net 1,963 3% currency) combined with stable lending Commission, net 1,230 -12% volumes Total expenses -3,060 1% Increased net interest income did not fully compensate for market effect on Credit losses, net -58 -13% securities-related commissions Operating profit 134 -50% Costs and credit losses, measured in RoE, % 2.4 5.0 local currency, lower than in 2007 C/I 0.94 0.90 Profitability remained at an unsatisfactory level Total lending 94,300 16% Total deposits 58,100 22% 90
  • 91. Business volume development Retail Germany, EUR bn Other lending Mortgages* Deposits 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Figures above present Mortgage, lending and deposits from private individuals and SME * Effected by amortizations on large historical sales volumes, partly sold through external sales organizations 91
  • 92. Sales development Retail Germany Customer Insurance EUR m New mortgage* EUR m appointments* 140 50,000 450 45,000 400 120 40,000 350 100 35,000 300 30,000 80 250 25,000 60 200 20,000 150 15,000 40 100 10,000 20 50 5,000 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 * by Call centre * incl. prolongation 92
  • 93. Retail Estonia Δ 2007 SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Highlights Total income 1,399 7% Best bank in Estonia 2008 according to The Banker Interest, net 939 8% Commission, net 331 -6% Lending market shares continued to decrease during 2008, in particular for corporate lending Total expenses -577 21% Credit losses, net -509 138% Mortgage volumes remained stable, Operating profit 313 -49% while “other lending” decreased slightly during second half of 2008 RoE, % 8.1 15.0 Strong market shares for long term C/I 0.41 0.36 savings: life insurance 29%, asset management 40% Total lending 48,200 +14% Stable deposit volumes during 2008 Total deposits 25,000 +13% Increased credit provisions 93
  • 94. Business volume development Retail Estonia, EUR bn Corporate Private Other lending Mortgages Deposits 3.5 3.5 3.5 3 3 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgages defined as home loans to private individuals Note: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes 94
  • 95. Market share development Retail Estonia, per cent Corporate Private Mortgages Deposits 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals 95
  • 96. Retail Latvia Δ 2007 SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Highlights Total income 1,274 -5% Decreased lending market shares during 2008, stable lending volume Interest, net 1,023 3% development Commission, net 201 -41% Strong market shares for long term Total expenses -624 15% savings, life insurance 41%, investment funds 49% Credit losses, net -496 345% Operating profit 155 -77% Campaign activity focused on investments and savings RoE, % 4.2 18.2 Reduction in commission income C/I 0.49 0.41 affected by accounting changes Increased credit provisions Total lending 41.300 16% Total deposits 18,900 4% 96
  • 97. Business volume development Corporate Retail Latvia, EUR bn Private Other lending Mortgages Deposits 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgages defined as home loans to private individuals Note: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes 97
  • 98. Market share development Retail Latvia, per cent Corporate Private Mortgages Deposits 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals 98
  • 99. Retail Lithuania Δ 2007 Highlights SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Total income 2,132 5% Best bank in Lithuania 2008 Interest, net 1,592 5% according to The Banker Commission, net 418 0% Decreased lending market shares during 2008, mainly driven by Total expenses -857 15% reduced corporate lending share Credit losses, net -725 479% Strong market positions for long-term Operating profit 549 -53% savings, e.g. asset management 46%, life insurance 25% RoE, % 10.6 21.9 Stable deposit volume development C/I 0.40 0.37 during 2008 C/I remained at a low level, but Total lending 76,200 28% credit provisions increased Total deposits 32,300 9% 99
  • 100. Business volume development Retail Lithuania, EUR bn Corporate Private Mortgages Deposits Other lending 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgages defined as home loans to private individuals Note: Figures include SEB:s large corporate business volumes 100
  • 101. Market share development Retail Lithuania, per cent Corporate Private Mortgages Deposits 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 Mortgage market share for home loans to private individuals 101
  • 102. Cards Highlights Δ 2007 SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Total income 2.498 8% Strong growth in underlying business Interest, net 505 60% – result before losses +14% Commission, net 1,955 1% despite higher funding costs / interest rates 2008 Total expenses -1,363 3% Several new customer offers Credit losses, net -401 201% launched, e.g. Eurocard Platinum Operating profit 734 -15% Eurocard launched in Finland Increased provisions for credit losses RoE, % 20.3 29.7 and fraud* C/I 0.55 0.57 * Credit loss comparison significantly affected by accounting changes (DEL now included in Retail) 102
  • 103. Cards SEK bn Turnover cards 70 60 50 40 30 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Millions Number of cards 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 103
  • 104. Wealth Management Fredrik Boheman Highlights Head of Revenues stable despite stock market Wealth Management depreciation, down -8% since 2007 Strong net sales 33bn, especially Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007 SEK m compared to peers driven by Private Banking, Large Institutions and Total income 4,687 -8% Alternatives Interest, net 891 6% Assets under management. Commission, net 3,681 -10% SEK 1,142bn, -11% since year end Total expenses -2,659* 9% The number of FTE:s fell to 1,088 compared to 1,123 in Q3 and 1,073 in Operating profit 2,011 -24% 2007 RoE, % 21,9 34,5 C/I 0.57 0.48 *6% of the 9% are disturbing items in a comparison and consists of KAM. Adjusted for this the costs increased with 3%. 104
  • 105. Share of income and result by area Jan – Dec 2008; percent of total Income Operating result Institutional Private Institutional Private Clients Banking Clients Banking 21% 31% 69% 79% 2007: 69% vs. 31% 2007: 76% vs. 24% 105
  • 106. Wealth Management SEK m Income Expenses 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 106
  • 107. Institutional Clients SEK m Income Expenses 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 107
  • 108. Private Banking SEK m Income Expenses 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 108
  • 109. Assets under management per product type Wealth Management, SEK bn 1,320 1,300 1,266 1,285 1,256 1,217 1,192 1,181 1,142 1,147 15% 1,107 15% 15% 1,079 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 13% 13% 14% 40% 40% 39% 40% 40% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 40% 40% 39% 40% 41% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 39% 38% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 46% 48% 48% 48% Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Institutional portf incl Stiftelser & Ftg (excl MF) Mutual Funds Private Clients 109
  • 110. Assets under management SEK bn Wealth down -11,1% since Y-E. Up 4,2% since November 33 1,285 73 1,142 -250 Dec 2007 Value Fx Net sales Dec 2008 110
  • 111. Total net sales per quarter SEK bn 2007 2008 IC 45,8 17,2 PB 13,1 19,0 25 20 2.9 2.6 15 5.3 4.9 10 4.1 16.4 3.5 15.5 5 5.8 9.0 8.2 7.6 6.3 3.0 2.0 0 -2.9 -5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 IC PB Note: The figures are not eliminated. Restated transfer of Foundations & Companies from PB to IC. 111
  • 112. Mutual funds per product type Wealth Management, Dec 2008 (Dec 2007) Total amount SEK 444 bn (SEK 514 bn) 27% 28% Equity funds 27% (43%) Fixed income funds 28% (24%) Balanced funds 14% (12%) Alternative funds 31% (21%) 14% 31% Note: Key Asset Mgmt is included from Q1-08 but not restated 2007 112
  • 113. Swedish mutual funds market Net sales and SEB market share SEB SEK +6,5bn % N/A 70 110 60 90 50 70 SEK -17,5bn 40 50 30 30 20 10 10 -10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 -30 Total Net Sales, SEK bn SEB share, % Source: Svensk Fondstatistik 113
  • 114. Activity level – Wealth Mutual Funds Net Sales Sweden Distribution per type of fund Jan – Dec 2008 Cumulative Jan 2005 – Dec 2008, including PPM 80% SEK m 60% 60,000 40% 50,000 SEB 20% 40,000 SHB 0% Robur 30,000 -20% Nordea -40% 20,000 -60% 10,000 -80% 0 SEB Total Jan- Maj Sep Jan- May Sep Jan- May Sep Jan- May Sep -10,000 05 06 07 08 Equity funds Mixed funds Short bond funds Long bond funds -20,000 Fund in fund Alternative funds -30,000 Source: Svensk Fondstatistik 114
  • 115. Performance vs. benchmark 2008 No. of portfolios AuM exceeding benchmark exceeding benchmark 100 100 79 80 80 61 54 60 60 49 34 33 40 40 20 20 0 0 2006 2007 2008 115
  • 116. Life Anders Mossberg Highlights Head of Positive sales development – up Life 10%, despite increasingly competitive markets and financial unrest Jan – Dec 2008 Δ 2007 SEK m Total income 3,260 -17% Lower operating profit mainly due to Total expenses -2,197 3% adverse equity and interest rate development and lower income from Operating profit 1,063 -41% the unit-linked business Change in surplus values, net 989 -22% Business result 2,052 33% ROE, %* 24.1 36.1 C/I ratio 0.67 0.54 * Based on business result 116
  • 117. Life SEK m Income Expenses 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Operating profit 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 117
  • 118. Share of income and profit by area Life, Jan – Dec 2008, per cent of total Income Operating profit International International 6% 9% Denmark Denmark 48% 33% 58% 46% Sweden Sweden Sweden including central functions etc 118
  • 119. Results – Life SEK m Jan – Dec Jan – Dec Change 2008 2007 % Income unit-linked 1,903 2,142 -11 Income other insurance 788 1,208 -35 Other income 569 580 -2 Total income 3,260 3,930 -17 Operating expenses -2,461 -2,306 7 Other expenses -24 -12 100 Change in deferred acquisition costs 288 190 -52 Total expenses -2,197 -2,128 3 Operating profit 1,063 1,802 -41 Change in surplus values, net 989 1,273 -22 Business result 2,052 3,075 -33 Financial effects due to market fluctuations -3,826 -62 - Change in assumptions -139 53 - Total result -1,913 3,066 -162 119
  • 120. Operating profit development Life, SEK m 1,802 1,520 1,063 968 570 181 73 16 -47 -121 -177 -263 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 120
  • 121. Strong market position in all markets Market shares, gross premium income, unit-linked insurance (%, 2008) SEB Main SEB Market share Competitors Rank competitor Sweden* 24 1 Skandia (15) Denmark** 10 2 Danica (41) 2 Hansa (37) Estonia 33 3 Sampo (35) 18 Latvia Hansa (30) Lithuania 27 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% * Sweden new sales ** Denmark full year 2007 121
  • 122. Market shares, Sweden Unit-linked new business,12 months to September 2008 (2007) Other 0,2% (0,2) SPP 4,5% (3,7%) Nordea 7,7% (4,8%) SEB Trygg Liv 23,8% (23,6%) Moderna 9,9% (13,5%) AMF 3,0% (3,1%) Folksam 8,0% (8,0%) Skandia 13,9% (13,6%) Danica 3,3% (4,1%) SHB 4,5% (4,7%) LF 10,4% (10,1%) Swedbank 10,7% (10,5%) 122
  • 123. Sales (SPE) Life, SEK m Jan – Dec 2008 Jan – Dec 2007 Change Unit linked 36,638 35,416 3% Traditional and Sickness/health 12,185 8,923 37% 48,823 44,339 10% Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten 123
  • 124. Sales SPE – traditional vs. unit-linked Life including SEB Pension from 2005 and the Baltics from 2006 100% 80% Traditional and sickness/health 60% Unit Linked 40% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten 124
  • 125. Sales SPE – individual vs. corporate Life including SEB Pension from 2005 and the Baltics from 2006 100% Individual 80% 60% Corporate 40% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten 125
  • 126. Unit-linked insurance sales Sweden* sales volumes weighted, SEK bn 34.9 31.6 30.4 27.1 26.7 Market 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Share Sweden, % 34.6 32.4 29.1 22.1 23.8** *Including Swedish customers of the Irish subsidiary. ** 12 months to Q3 2008. 126
  • 127. New business profit Life (2005-2006 only Swedish market), SEK m Full year Full year Full year Full year 2008 2007 2006 2005 New sales (single/10+regular) 3,858 3,689 3,345 3,678 Net present value 1,598 1,775 1,788 1,924 Acquisition cost -879 -901 -970 -1,116 New business profit 719 874 818 808 Margin, % 18.6 23.7 24.5 22.0 Swedish market 20.8 22.9 127
  • 128. Embedded value Life Holding group, SEK m Dec Dec Dec Dec 2008 2007 2006 2005 Equity * 8,827 8,836 8,450 7,696 Surplus value ** 11,549 14,496 12,872 10,765 * Dividend paid; 2008 SEK -1,275 2007: SEK -1,150 2006: SEK -400m. ** Value of in-force business; Net of DAC, including SEB Link (Denmark) from 2005 128
  • 129. Life, assets under management (net assets) SEK bn Traditional and Risk Unit-linked 500 408 395 368 400 354 311 300 215 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 129
  • 130. Life, premium income gross SEK bn Traditional and Risk Unit-linked 35 31 31 29 30 26 25 20 17 13 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 130
  • 131. Profits generated over time Example: Occupational pension – regular premium* Total duration of 20 years and premium duration of 15 years Net present value after sales costs is Income/Costs & CF, SEK 11,000 SEK 8,000 4,000 0 -4,000 -8,000 -12,000 Cost Income Accum cash flow -16,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Year Acc op result -592 -540 977 * SEK 35,000 131
  • 132. Macro Update 132
  • 133. Overall assessment Financial stress remains – global recession in both 2009 and 2010 Deflation threats – possibly even in the form of substantial wage moderation – will force new key rate cuts Fiscal policy must become more proactive to support growth Major budget deficits on the way 133
  • 134. Sweden: Deepest slump since the 1990s crisis Year-on-year percentage change Index Exports continuing to lose momentum GDP and Economic tendency indicator 140 7 Falling asset prices will 6 120 squeeze consumption 5 100 Falling GDP in 2009 – 4 80 and weak in 2010 too 3 60 Unemployment 2 40 headed towards 10% 1 20 0 Inflation will decline 0 -1 rapidly – repo rate cuts 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 to 0.50% in April 2009 GDP (LHS) Economic tendency indicator (RHS) Expansive fiscal policy and budget deficits Sources: Statistics Sweden, SEB 134
  • 135. Norway: Rapid deceleration Year-on-year percentage change Broad-based slowdown Mainland GDP and employment 8 Rapid upturn in unemployment 6 Inflation pressure will 4 gradually ease 2 Sight deposit rate cut to 0 2.00% in March 2009 -2 -4 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Employment GDP Source: Statistics Norway 135
  • 136. Finland: Gathering clouds Index Continued slide in Leading indicators leading indicators – 80 export sector especially 60 hard hit 40 Private consumption will 20 slow down 0 Unemployment will rise -20 as inflation decelerates -40 Budget surplus will shift -60 to deficit in 2010 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Manufacturing sector Service sector Construction industry Source: Reuters EcoWin 136
  • 137. Denmark: The recession is back Year-on-year percentage change Index Broad decline in GDP and Economic sentiment indicator confidence indicators Continued weak private 140 5 consumption – exports 120 4 squeezed from several 100 3 directions 80 2 60 1 Credit crisis and higher 40 0 unemployment will push home prices down 20 -1 further 0 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 A decline in the repo rate GDP (LHS) Economic sentiment indicator (RHS) spread Sources: DG ECFIN, Statistics Denmark 137
  • 138. Euro zone: Crisis hitting with full impact Index Euro zone GDP will fall GDP and Economic sentiment indicator by at least 2.2% in 2009 5 150 No private consumption upturn in sight 4 120 Rising unemployment, no 3 90 inflation threat 2 60 Public finances deteriorating on broad 1 30 front 0 0 ECB will slash refi rate to 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0.50% in May 2009 GDP (LHS) Economic sentiment indicator (RHS) Sources: Eurostat, SEB 138
  • 139. Baltics: Hard landing Recessions in 2009, deep in Year-on-year percentage Latvia and Estonia change Unemployment will climb Baltic Retail sales substantially 35 30 Sharp decline in wage growth 25 and much lower inflation 20 15 Budgets will weaken in spite of 10 fiscal austerity measures 5 0 Anemic domestic demand will -5 improve current accounts further -10 -15 Exchange rate risks have -20 decreased after the IMF led 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Latvian package Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Reuters EcoWin 139
  • 140. Regional GDP forecasts 2007 2008 2009 2010 United States 2.0 1.1 -2.1 1.3 Euro zone 2.6 1.0 -2.2 0.3 United Kingdom 3.0 0.8 -2.0 0.5 Nordic countries 3.1 1.3 -1.3 0.7 OECD 2.6 1.0 -1.2 0.6 World 5.0 3.4 0.9 2.3 140
  • 141. Macro forecasts per country SEB Forecasts GDP (%) Inflation (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Denmark* 1.8 0.2 -1.5 0.0 1.7 3.6 1.8 1.8 Finland* 4.4 1.8 -1.8 0.3 1.6 3.9 1.2 1.4 Norway 3.7 1.9 0.1 1.8 0.8 3.8 1.7 2.1 Sweden 2.9 0.8 -1.3 0.6 2.2 3.4 -0.2 0.6 Germany* 2.5 1.3 -2.6 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.4 0.8 Euro zone* 2.6 0.9 -2.2 0.3 2.1 3.3 0.6 1.0 Estonia* 7.1 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 6.6 10.6 3.9 1.9 Latvia* 10.3 -1.8 -7.0 -1.0 10.1 15.3 5.0 3.0 Lithuania* 8.8 3.2 -2.0 -2.0 5.8 11.1 8.0 7.0 Russia 8.1 6.5 -1.0 3.0 9.0 14.0 9.8 8.5 Ukraine 7.3 5.0 -5.0 2.0 12.8 24.5 15.0 10.0 Sources: National statistical agencies, SEB Economic Research * Harmonised consumer price index 141

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