USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: September 22 – September 28, 2012                              ...
All Eight States                                                       Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:           ...
Wisconsin                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                      ...
Virginia                                                     Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                     ...
North Carolina                                                    Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                ...
Florida                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                        ...
Ohio                                                      Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                        ...
Colorado                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                       ...
New Hampshire                                                     Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                ...
Nevada                                                   Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS:                        ...
Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State                                               Obama                             ...
Share of Voice for Key Issues by State                             Medicare/     Protecting               Abortion/       ...
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SDL Social Intelligence, US Presidential Election Social Data Reports. Week 3: September 22 - September 28, 2012

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Virginia's Focus On Foreign Policy - An Opportunity for Romney?

This week's report demonstrates how each state has their own story. The hot issue this week continued to be about jobs and the Economy, however some states were more interested in other issues.

The buzz in Virginia showed an increase in sentiment around foreign policy, which might not come as a surprise with the Pentagon and number of military personnel. This week also marked an increase in sentiment score for Romney in Virginia.

By listening to social, these candidates could identify more unique areas of opportunity.

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SDL Social Intelligence, US Presidential Election Social Data Reports. Week 3: September 22 - September 28, 2012

  1. 1. USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: September 22 – September 28, 2012 SDL Proprietary and Confidential
  2. 2. All Eight States Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekOverall, there was very little significant change 5%in share of voice in all eight states this week. All 5% Abortion/Choice 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 15% 16%of the issues increased in share of voice slightly, Medicare/Social 14% 15.8% 14.1% 1.7%except for “Foreign Policy” which decreased by 12% Security5.4%. “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the 33% Protecting the 11.8% 10.3% 1.5% middle classmain issue discussed (33.3%). Jobs/Economy 33.3% 33.1% 0.2% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: This week, Obama’s overall Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 14.5% 14.1% 0.4% Sentiment Score improved slightly by 0.9, Budget/Deficit Obamacare only dropping in sentiment in Virginia and Obamacare 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% Foreign Policy Nevada. With the exception of Virginia and New Hampshire, he led in sentiment in all Foreign Policy 15.0% 20.4% 5.4% other six states.• Romney: Romney had a rough week as his Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Sentiment Score dropped significantly by 7.2. The main reason was that he received Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change many negative comments on his health care plan for the uninsured, dropping in sentiment Obama -3.5 -4.6 0.9 across all states except Virginia and New Hampshire where he saw small lifts. Romney -10.4 -3.2 7.2 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%2
  3. 3. Wisconsin Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThe most discussed issue in Wisconsin this 4%week continued to be “Jobs/Economy”, even 7% 15% Abortion/Choice 4.3% 1.7% 2.6% 18%though it saw a huge drop in share of voice Medicare/Social 16% 17.9% 22.9% 5.0%(-16%). The issues “Protecting the middle 13% Securityclass” and “Budget deficit” received more 27% Protecting the 13.4% 6.2% 7.2% middle classattention this week, as they increased in shareof voice by 7.2% and 7.7%, respectively. Jobs/Economy 27.2% 43.2% 16.0% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 15.4% 7.7% 7.7%• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Budget/Deficit Obamacare with over 3,000 mentions. He also led in Obamacare 6.5% 4.4% 2.1% Foreign Policy sentiment with a score of 4.3, which dropped by 0.9 from last week. He got supported Foreign Policy 15.3% 13.9% 1.4% with his Foreign Policies and plan for the unemployment, but received negative comments saying that he killed the jobs for Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) the middle class and the economy. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change• Romney: Romney’s Sentiment Score was plummeted this week to a score of -19, Obama 4.3 5.2 0.9 which dropped by 18.1 from last week. The main reason was that Romney’s health care plan for the uninsured received many negative comments by Wisconsinites. Romney -19 -0.9 18.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%3
  4. 4. Virginia Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week“Jobs/Economy” was no longer the most 7%discussed issue this week after seeing a huge Abortion/Choice 7.1% 3.4% 3.7% 28% 15%drop in share of voice (-15%). “Foreign Policy” 9% Medicare/Social 14.7% 17.4% 2.7%became the most discussed issue with an Security 13% 21%increase of 5.2% in share of voice. Protecting the 8.7% 6.9% 1.8% 7% middle class• Obama: Obama continued to lead in Jobs/Economy 20.9% 35.9% 15.0% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS volume this week with about 8,000 Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 13.6% 11.7% 1.9% mentions. However, he lost in sentiment as Budget/Deficit Obamacare his Sentiment Score was at -7.9, which Obamacare 7.3% 2.2% 5.1% Foreign Policy dropped by 9.5 from last week. This week, Virginians attacked Obama on many issues, Foreign Policy 27.7% 22.5% 5.2% especially on his foreign policies, the downgrade of the US economy, and the huge budget deficit. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney led in sentiment this Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change week with a score of 0 (+5.0 from last week). As Virginians lost trust in their president on Obama -7.9 1.6 9.5 the big issues such as “Jobs/Economy” and “Foreign Policy”, they now believed that Romney would be able to fix them. However, Romney received negative Romney 0 -5.0 5.0 comments on his Medicare plan. *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%4
  5. 5. North Carolina Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekNorth Carolinians spoke more about the issue 2% 10%“Budget deficit” this week, making it the second 4% 17% 13% Abortion/Choice 2.3% 2.4% 0.1%most discussed issue with a boost of 8.2% in Medicare/Social 10.3% 14.2% 3.9%share of voice. “Jobs/Economy” continued to 23% Security 31%be the most discussed issue. Protecting the 12.7% 12.8% 0.1% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 30.5% 30.3% 0.2% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with over 7,000 mentions. His Sentiment Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 23.3% 15.1% 8.2% Score increased slightly by 2.3 to a score of Budget/Deficit Obamacare -1.5. Many North Carolinians heavily Obamacare 4.2% 4.3% 0.1% Foreign Policy criticized Obama for the bad economy, the high unemployment rate, and the huge Foreign Policy 16.7% 20.9% 4.2% budget deficit.• Romney: Romney lost in sentiment this Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) week after seeing a drop of 17.5 in his Sentiment Score. One of the main reasons Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change was Romney’s health care plan for the uninsured, which was to just “go to the Obama -1.5 -3.8 2.3 Emergency Room”. The other reason was the news that revealed Romney’s connection with a Chinese oil company, which made people question his patriotism. Romney -19.6 -2.1 17.5 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%5
  6. 6. Florida Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekFloridians shifted their attention even further 10% 4% 4%from “Foreign Policy” to “Jobs/Economy”. As a 11% Abortion/Choice 4.2% 5.1% 0.9% 20%result, “Foreign Policy” decreased by 10.2% and Medicare/Social 19.3% 14.2% 5.1%“Jobs/Economy” increased by 6% in share of Security 38% 13% Protecting thevoice. 12.8% 10.8% 2.0% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 38.1% 32.1% 6.0% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with over 15,000 mentions. His Sentiment Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 11.2% 13.4% 2.2% Score increased slightly by 2.0, but it was Budget/Deficit Obamacare still a negative score of -3.7. Some Obamacare 4.3% 4.1% 0.2% Foreign Policy Floridians showed their frustration with Obama on the “Jobs/Economy” issue, as Foreign Policy 10.1% 20.3% 10.2% they saw poorer results after his 4-year presidency. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney’s Sentiment Score in Florida this week was worse than his Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change opponent’s, after seeing a drop of 9.7. This was also due to his “proposed” health care Obama -3.7 -5.7 2.0 plan for the uninsured. Some others raised concerns that if Romney was to be the next president he would be like George Bush, putting the USA into a recession. Romney -9.7 0 9.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%6
  7. 7. Ohio Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThe issue “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the 8%most popular with 35.1% in share of voice 4% Abortion/Choice 7.8% 7.8% 0% 15% 15%(+3.1%). The second most popular issue was 13% Medicare/Social 14.7% 11.6% 3.1%still “Foreign Policy”, even after seeing a drop of Security5.1% in share of voice. 35% 10%Protecting the 10.4% 11.3% 0.9% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume with over Jobs/Economy 35.1% 32.0% 3.1% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS 7,000 mentions. His Sentiment Score Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 13.0% 14.1% 1.1% increased by 7.3 this week, but was still at a negative score of -4.6, lower than Romney’s. Budget/Deficit Obamacare Obamacare 3.6% 2.7% 0.9% Most of Obama’s negative comments Foreign Policy stemmed from Ohioans who believed that he Foreign Policy 15.4% 20.5% 5.1% worsened the economy and the budget deficit. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney lost in sentiment in Ohio this week with a score of -12.9. He was Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change heavily criticized for his blunt “emergency room” health care plan for the uninsured and Obama -4.6 -11.9 7.3 his aggressive foreign policies in the Middle East. Romney -12.9 -12.0 0.9 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%7
  8. 8. Colorado Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThere was not any significant change in share 13% 3% 10%of voice this week. Coloradoans still spoke 5% 12% Abortion/Choice 2.8% 1.7% 1.1%about “Jobs/Economy” the most with 35.3% in Medicare/Social 22% 10.4% 6.3% 4.1%share of voice (+3.3%). Second was the issue Security 35%“Budget deficit” with 22.2% in share of voice, Protecting the 12.0% 10.4% 1.6% middle classwhich dropped by 4.6% from last week. Jobs/Economy 35.3% 32.0% 3.3% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama led in volume with over Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 22.2% 26.8% 4.6% 4,000 mentions. He also led in sentiment, Budget/Deficit Obamacare after his Sentiment Score saw a boost of 6.1 Obamacare 4.5% 5.7% 1.2% Foreign Policy this week. But he still got more negative comments on his poor performance on Foreign Policy 12.8% 17.1% 4.3% saving the economy and the budget deficit, leaving his Sentiment Score at a negative -1.9. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney also had a rough week Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change in Colorado, as his Sentiment Score dropped by 16.1 to -17.1. He received Obama -1.9 -8.0 6.1 negative comments on his “emergency room” health care plan and his foreign policies in the Middle East. Romney -17.1 -1.0 16.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%8
  9. 9. New Hampshire Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekIn New Hampshire, “Jobs/Economy” was still 6%the most popular issue with 31.2% in share of 4% Abortion/Choice 5.9% 4.4% 1.5% 15%voice. However, “Medicare/Social Security” saw 21% 14% Medicare/Social 21.3% 12.2% 9.1%a boost in share of voice of 9.1% and became 9% Securitythe second most discussed issue. 31% Protecting the 9.3% 9.3% 0% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume with over Jobs/Economy 31.2% 34.6% 3.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS 800 mentions. His Sentiment Score was at - Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 14.1% 15.6% 1.5% 5.3, as he received negative comments on Budget/Deficit Obamacare his broken promises about restoring the Obamacare 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% Foreign Policy economy and the budget. Foreign Policy 14.8% 20.6% 5.8%• Romney: Romney’s Sentiment Score was relatively the same as his opponent’s. He did not get votes from New Hampshire’s Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) middle class because of his different definition of middle income, claiming it to be Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change $200,000 to $250,000 a year. Obama -5.3 -5.7 0.4 Romney -5.0 -8.6 3.6 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%9
  10. 10. Nevada Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week Nevadans spoke mostly about the issue 6% 13% “Jobs/Economy” (39.5% in share of voice). 3% 16% Abortion/Choice 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% “Foreign Policy” was the second most popular 11% 12% Medicare/Social 12.6% 10.4% 2.2% issue this week (16%), even though it dropped Security by 7.9% from last week. 39% Protecting the 12.0% 9.1% 2.9% middle class • Obama: Obama led in volume with over Jobs/Economy 39.5% 34.7% 4.8% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS 1,500 mentions. However, he did not Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 10.6% 14.9% 4.3% perform well in sentiment, as his Sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare Score dropped by 6.3 from last week to a Obamacare 3.6% 3.9% 0.3% Foreign Policy score of -8.1. Nevadans mostly blamed him for the high unemployment rate. Foreign Policy 16.0% 23.9% 7.9% • Romney: Romney performed even worse than Obama in Nevada, as his Sentiment Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Score dropped significantly by 19.6 to a negative score of -19.6. He was heavily Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change criticized for his health care plan for the uninsured. Some noted that Romney’s Obama -8.1 -1.8 6.3 budget plan would actually destroy jobs. Romney -19.6 0 19.6 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%10
  11. 11. Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State Obama Romney Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change Wisconsin 4.3 5.2 0.9 -19 -0.9 18.1 Virginia -7.9 1.6 9.5 0 -5.0 5.0 North Carolina -1.5 -3.8 2.3 -19.6 -2.1 17.5 Florida -3.7 -5.7 2.0 -9.7 0 9.7 Ohio -4.6 -11.9 7.3 -12.9 -12.0 0.9 Colorado -1.9 -8.0 6.1 -17.1 -1.0 16.1 New Hampshire -5.3 -5.7 0.4 -5.0 -8.6 3.6 Nevada -8.1 -1.8 6.3 -19.6 0 19.6• Romney has a negative Sentiment Score in seven states, the highest score being 0 in Virginia.• Obama has a positive Sentiment Score in Wisconsin and a negative Sentiment Score in all other seven states. However, he led in sentiment in six states, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, and gained in six.11 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%
  12. 12. Share of Voice for Key Issues by State Medicare/ Protecting Abortion/ Jobs/ Budget ForeignState Social the middle Obamacare Choice Economy deficit Policy Security classWisconsin 4.3% 17.9% 13.4% 27.2% 15.4% 6.5% 15.3%Virginia 7.1% 14.7% 8.7% 20.9% 13.6% 7.3% 27.7%North 2.3% 10.3% 12.7% 30.5% 23.3% 4.2% 16.7%CarolinaFlorida 4.2% 19.3% 12.8% 38.1% 11.2% 4.3% 10.1%Ohio 7.8% 14.7% 10.4% 35.1% 13.0% 3.6% 15.4%Colorado 2.8% 10.4% 12.0% 35.3% 22.2% 4.5% 12.8%New 5.9% 21.3% 9.3% 31.2% 14.1% 3.4% 14.8%HampshireNevada 5.7% 12.6% 12.0% 39.5% 10.6% 3.6% 16.0%• “Jobs/Economy” continued to lead in all states, except for Virginia where “Foreign Policy” had the most mentions. Meanwhile, “Budget deficit” was most popular in North Carolina, while “Foreign Policy” was most popular in Virginia.12
  13. 13. Copyright © 2008-2012 SDL plc. All rights reserved.. All company names, brand names, trademarks,service marks, images and logos are the property of their respective owners.This presentation and its content are SDL confidential unless otherwise specified, and may not becopied, used or distributed except as authorised by SDL.

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