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USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: September 29 – October 5, 2012                                 ...
All Eight States                                                     Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:             ...
Wisconsin                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                      ...
Virginia                                                  Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                        ...
North Carolina                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                 ...
Florida                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                        ...
Ohio                                                     Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                         ...
Colorado                                                     Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                     ...
New Hampshire                                                   Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS:                  ...
Nevada                                                      Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS:                     ...
Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State                                                Obama                            ...
Share of Voice for Key Issues by State                             Medicare/     Protecting               Abortion/       ...
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Week 4: Presidential Race Report

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In this week's Presidential Campaign Report, the results demonstrated a significant increase in sentiment towards Romney across several of the key swing states. This could validate the buzz that Romney won the first presidential debate.

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Transcript of "Week 4: Presidential Race Report"

  1. 1. USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: September 29 – October 5, 2012 SDL Proprietary and Confidential
  2. 2. All Eight States Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThis week, due to the presidential debate on 7% 8% 3%Wednesday, October 3, people in the eight Abortion/Choice 3.1% 4.9% 1.8% 18%states talked mostly about “Jobs/Economy” 18% Medicare/Social 12% 17.9% 15.8% 2.1%(34.2%). The second most popular issue was Security“Budget deficit” (18.6%). The issue “Foreign 34% Protecting the 11.8% 11.8% 0%Policy” decreased further in share of voice by middle class7.3%. Jobs/Economy 34.2% 33.3% 0.9% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy• Obama: Obama’s Sentiment Score Budget deficit 18.6% 14.5% 4.1% Budget/Deficit Obamacare improved slightly by 1.7 this week. He only Foreign Policy Obamacare 6.7% 4.7% 2.0% led in sentiment in New Hampshire and Nevada. Foreign Policy 7.7% 15.0% 7.3%• Romney: By arguably winning the first debate on Wednesday, October 3 (according Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) to many), Romney’s Sentiment Score saw a boost of 10.1 this week. However, his Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change overall score was still at a negative score of -0.3. Obama -1.8 -3.5 1.7 Romney -0.3 -10.4 10.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1002
  3. 3. Wisconsin Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekWisconsinites mostly discussed 4% 5% 5%“Jobs/Economy” (33.8%) and “Budget deficit” 14% Abortion/Choice 5.4% 4.3% 1.1%(24.6%). They did not talk much about “Foreign 25% Medicare/Social 13% 14.1% 17.9% 3.8%Policy”, which dropped by 10.7% in share of Securityvoice. 34% Protecting the 13.4% 13.4% 0% middle class• Obama: The volume of conversations about Jobs/Economy 33.8% 27.2% 6.6% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Obama was roughly 4,000. His Sentiment Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 24.6% 15.4% 9.2% Score dropped by 7.4 to a negative score of Budget/Deficit Obamacare -3.1. This was due to the fact that Obamacare 4.1% 6.5% 2.4% Foreign Policy Wisconsinites displayed displeasure in their comments with Obama’s performance in the Foreign Policy 4.6% 15.3% 10.7% debate. They gave negative comments on his plan for the economy and unemployment. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney led in volume this week Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change with over 5,000 mentions. He also led in sentiment with a score of -2.6, which Obama -3.1 4.3 7.4 increased by 16.4 from last week. He received negative comments on his plan for the middle class. However, many said that he would be the one to restore the economy. Romney -2.6 -19 16.4 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1003
  4. 4. Virginia Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous ChangeThe two issues that had significant changes in Week Week 8% 3%share of voice this week in Virginia were 5% Abortion/Choice 2.8% 7.1% 4.3%“Jobs/Economy” and “Foreign Policy”. The 18% 19% Medicare/Socialmain issue in the debate, “Jobs/Economy”, 12% Security 18.9% 14.7% 4.2%increased by 14.2% in share of voice, and 35% Protecting the“Foreign Policy” decreased by 19.1% in share of middle class 12.1% 8.7% 3.4%voice. Jobs/Economy 35.1% 20.9% 14.2% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: The number of conversations Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.7% 13.6% 4.1% about Obama was around 10,000. His Budget/Deficit Obamacare Obamacare 4.8% 7.3% 2.5% Sentiment Score improved by 6.7 over the Foreign Policy last week. He was criticized for his pro- Foreign Policy 8.6% 27.7% 19.1% choice stance and military spending.• Romney: Romney not only led in volume Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) this week with over 12,000 mentions, but he also led in sentiment with a score of -0.3. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change He received compliments on his performance in Wednesday’s debate. However, some Virginians were still not Obama -1.2 -7.9 6.7 happy with his plan for the middle class. Romney -0.3 0 0.3 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1004
  5. 5. North Carolina Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week“Jobs/Economy” was also the most popular 8% 3% 8% Abortion/Choice 3.0% 2.3% 0.7%issue this week in North Carolina. In addition, 18%North Carolinians spoke more about 16% Medicare/Social 12% 18.6% 10.3% 8.3%“Medicare/Social Security”, which increased by Security8.3% in share of voice, and less about “Foreign 35% Protecting the 11.7% 12.7% 1.0%Policy”, which decreased by 9.0% in share of middle classvoice. Jobs/Economy 35.1% 30.5% 4.6% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 16.1% 23.3% 7.2%• Obama: Obama continued to lead in Budget/Deficit Obamacare volume in North Carolina this week with Obamacare 7.8% 4.2% 3.6% Foreign Policy roughly 12,000 mentions. However, he lost in sentiment with a negative score of -2.8. Foreign Policy 7.7% 16.7% 9.0% There were more people commenting negatively on the president, as they said they did not see any improvements since Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Obama took office. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change• Romney: The volume of conversations about Romney was around 11,000. His Obama -2.8 -1.5 1.3 Sentiment Score saw a boost of 18.7 from last week, making him lead in sentiment this week. Many North Carolinians did not think that Romney’s health care would be better, Romney -0.9 -19.6 18.7 and that his tax break plan would not work well. However, many believed that he would *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100 be able to resolve the high unemployment rate.5
  6. 6. Florida Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThe only issue that had a significant change in 7% 7% 3%share of voice in Florida was “Budget deficit”, Abortion/Choice 2.7% 4.2% 1.5% 19%which increased by 6.0%. “Jobs/Economy”, 17% Medicare/Social 12% 18.7% 19.3% 0.6%however, remained the most popular issue with Security35.4% in share of voice. 35% Protecting the 11.9% 12.8% 0.9% middle class• Obama: The number of mentions about Jobs/Economy 35.4% 38.1% 2.7% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Obama in Florida was around 20,000, and Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.2% 11.2% 6.0% his Sentiment Score increased slightly by Budget/Deficit Obamacare 3.0. However, he still received more Obamacare 6.8% 4.3% 2.5% Foreign Policy negative comments, leaving him with a negative score of -0.7. He was criticized by Foreign Policy 7.3% 10.1% 2.8% Floridians mostly on the high unemployment rate and the poor economy. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney led in volume with over 25,000 mentions, and in sentiment with a Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change positive score of 2.6 (+12.3). He mostly received positive comments from the debate Obama -0.7 -3.7 3.0 on Wednesday, especially on his plan for the middle class. Romney 2.6 -9.7 12.3 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1006
  7. 7. Ohio Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThis week, Ohioans talked mostly about the 3 9% 4% 8%main issues in the debate: “Jobs/Economy” Abortion/Choice 3.7% 7.8% 4.1% 17%(34.9%), “Budget deficit” (18.6%), and 19% 8% Medicare/Social 16.7% 14.7% 2.0%“Medicare/Social Security” (16.7%). Security 35% Protecting the 8.2% 10.4% 2.2%• Obama: With 12,000 mentions and a middle class Sentiment Score of -1.9, Obama lost in Jobs/Economy 34.9% 35.1% 0.2% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS volume as well as sentiment in Ohio this Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 18.6% 13.0% 5.6% week. He was heavily criticized on the issue “Budget deficit”, as many Ohioans were Budget/Deficit Obamacare Obamacare 8.4% 3.6% 4.8% Foreign Policy unhappy that Obama broke his promise of reducing the deficit, by instead increasing it Foreign Policy 9.5% 15.4% 5.9% further.• Romney: Romney led in volume with over Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) 14,000 mentions. His Sentiment Score, which was -1.7, was a bit better than Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change Obama’s. Many Ohioans were not convinced of his health care plan and his tax Obama -1.9 -4.6 2.7 break plan. Romney -1.7 -12.9 11.2 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1007
  8. 8. Colorado Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekColoradoans shifted their attention this week 6% 7% 3%from “Foreign Policy” to “Medicare/Social Abortion/Choice 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 18%Security”. As a result, share of voice for 24% 11% Medicare/Social 17.4% 10.4% 7.0%“Medicare/Social Security” increased by 7.0%, Securityand “Foreign Policy” decreased by 5.8%. 31% Protecting the 10.9% 12.0% 1.1%“Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular middle classissue. Jobs/Economy 31.2% 35.3% 4.1% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 24.2% 22.2% 2.0%• Obama: The number of conversations Budget/Deficit Obamacare about Obama was around 5,000. His Obamacare 6.3% 4.5% 1.8% Foreign Policy Sentiment Score dropped further by 2.2 over last week, as he received negative Foreign Policy 7.0% 12.8% 5.8% comments on his spending and his plan for the middle class. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney led in volume with over 5,500 mentions. He also led in sentiment Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change slightly with a score of -3.5. Some Coloradoans said that all of his plans for the Obama -4.1 -1.9 2.2 economy and the budget presented in the debate were “all talk and no proof”. Romney -3.5 -17.1 13.6 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1008
  9. 9. New Hampshire Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekPeople in New Hampshire focused most of their 5% 5% 1%attention on the issue “Protecting the middle 13% 15% Abortion/Choice 1.4% 5.9% 4.5%class” this week. It became the most popular Medicare/Social 14.5% 21.3% 6.8%issue this week, after seeing a huge boost of 25% 36% Security26.7% in share of voice. Protecting the 36.0% 9.3% 26.7% middle class• Obama: The volume of conversations about Jobs/Economy 24.9% 31.2% 6.3% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Obama was roughly 800, but he led in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 13.0% 14.1% 1.1% sentiment with a positive score of 2.5. He Budget/Deficit Obamacare received support for Medicare and his pro- Obamacare 5.4% 3.4% 2.0% Foreign Policy choice stance. Foreign Policy 4.8% 14.8% 10.0%• Romney: Romney led in volume with over 1,000 mentions, but his Sentiment Score decreased further by 6.6 to a negative score Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) of -11.6. He was mostly criticized for the fact that his tax cuts and Medicare only Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change benefited the wealthy. Obama 2.5 -5.3 7.8 Romney -11.6 -5.0 6.6 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 1009
  10. 10. Nevada Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week Nevadans talked more about “Budget deficit” 8% 2% 6% this week, and less about “Jobs/Economy”. As Abortion/Choice 2.4% 5.7% 3.3% 20% a result, share of voice for “Budget deficit” 23% Medicare/Social 16% 20.1% 12.6% 7.5% increased by 12.7%, while “Jobs/Economy” Security dropped by 14.4%. However, the latter was still 25% Protecting the 15.5% 12.0% 3.5% middle class the most popular issue in Nevada. Jobs/Economy 25.1% 39.5% 14.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS • Obama: The volume of mentions about Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 23.3% 10.6% 12.7% Obama was around 2,700. His Sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare Score increased by 5.9 from last week, but it Obamacare 5.6% 3.6% 2.0% Foreign Policy still stayed negative at -2.2. Many Nevadans said they did not trust his Foreign Policy 8.0% 16.0% 8.0% Medicare plan, Obamacare. • Romney: Although Romney led in volume Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) with over 3,000 mentions this week, he lost in sentiment with a negative score of -5.3, as Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change he received many negative comments on his health care plan (like Obama). Obama -2.2 -8.1 5.9 Romney -5.3 -19.6 14.3 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 10010
  11. 11. Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State Obama Romney Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change Wisconsin -3.1 4.3 7.4 -2.6 -19 16.4 Virginia -1.2 -7.9 6.7 -0.3 0 0.3 North Carolina -2.8 -1.5 1.3 -0.9 -19.6 18.7 Florida -0.7 -3.7 3.0 2.6 -9.7 12.3 Ohio -1.9 -4.6 2.7 -1.7 -12.9 11.2 Colorado -4.1 -1.9 2.2 -3.5 -17.1 13.6 New Hampshire 2.5 -5.3 7.8 -11.6 -5.0 6.6 Nevada -2.2 -8.1 5.9 -5.3 -19.6 14.3• Romney’s Sentiment Score improved significantly this week in Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. He had one positive score in Florida.• Obama’s only positive score was in New Hampshire. He only led in sentiment in New Hampshire and Nevada.11 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
  12. 12. Share of Voice for Key Issues by State Medicare/ Protecting Abortion/ Jobs/ Budget ForeignState Social the middle Obamacare Choice Economy deficit Policy Security classWisconsin 5.4% 14.1% 13.4% 33.8% 24.6% 4.1% 4.6%Virginia 2.8% 18.9% 12.1% 35.1% 17.7% 4.8% 8.6%North 3.0% 18.6% 11.7% 35.1% 16.1% 7.8% 7.7%CarolinaFlorida 2.7% 18.7% 11.9% 35.4% 17.2% 6.8% 7.3%Ohio 3.7% 16.7% 8.2% 34.9% 18.6% 8.4% 9.5%Colorado 3.0% 17.4% 10.9% 31.2% 24.2% 6.3% 7.0%New 1.4% 14.5% 36.0% 24.9% 13.0% 5.4% 4.8%HampshireNevada 2.4% 20.1% 15.5% 25.1% 23.3% 5.6% 8.0%• “Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular issue in all states, except for New Hampshire where the issue “Protecting the middle class” had the lead. Meanwhile, “Budget deficit” was most popular in Wisconsin, while “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in Nevada.12
  13. 13. Copyright © 2008-2012 SDL plc. All rights reserved.. All company names, brand names, trademarks,service marks, images and logos are the property of their respective owners.This presentation and its content are SDL confidential unless otherwise specified, and may not becopied, used or distributed except as authorised by SDL.
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