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Week 5: Presidential Race Report
 

Week 5: Presidential Race Report

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Week 5: "Foreign Policy" and "Abortion/Choice" Become Increasingly Important Issues Following the VP Debates

Week 5: "Foreign Policy" and "Abortion/Choice" Become Increasingly Important Issues Following the VP Debates

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    Week 5: Presidential Race Report Week 5: Presidential Race Report Presentation Transcript

    • USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: October 6 – October 12, 2012 SDL Proprietary and Confidential
    • All Eight States Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThe vice presidential debate made the issues 9%“Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” boost in 5% 16% 13% Abortion/Choice 9.0% 3.1% 5.9%share of voice by 5.9% and 8.4% respectively. 8% Medicare/Social 18% 13.3% 17.9% 4.6%However, “Jobs/Economy” remained the most Securitydiscussed issue with 31.1% in share of voice. 31% Protecting the 8.3% 11.8% 3.5% middle class• Obama: This week, Obama led in volume in Jobs/Economy 31.1% 34.2% 3.1% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS all of the eight states. His overall Sentiment Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.3% 18.6% 1.3% Score decreased by 5.4. While he had a Budget/Deficit Obamacare positive score in New Hampshire, he led in Foreign Policy Obamacare 4.9% 6.7% 1.8% sentiment in Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada, but with negative Foreign Policy 16.1% 7.7% 8.4% scores.• Romney: Romney’s Overall Sentiment Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Score, which stayed at -6.2, was slightly better than Obama’s. He had, however, no Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change positive scores in any states this week. Obama -7.2 -1.8 5.4 Romney -6.2 -0.3 5.9 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%2
    • Wisconsin Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week“Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most 7%discussed issue in Wisconsin this week 2% Abortion/Choice 6.7% 5.4% 1.3% 9% 15% 11%(40.8%). After having a boost of 10.8% in share Medicare/Social 15% 11.2% 14.1% 2.9%of voice, “Foreign Policy” became the second Securitymost discussed issue. Meanwhile, “Budget 41% Protecting the 14.8% 13.4% 1.4%deficit” dropped by 15.8% in share of voice. middle class Jobs/Economy 40.8% 33.8% 7.0% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 8.8% 24.6% 15.8% with over 5,000 mentions. His Sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare Score, however, decreased by 3.7. He Obamacare 2.3% 4.1% 1.8% Foreign Policy continued to be blamed for the increase in the budget deficit and heavily criticized for Foreign Policy 15.4% 4.6% 10.8% his weak foreign policies.• Romney: The number of conversations Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) about Romney was about 3,500. He led in sentiment this week with a slightly higher Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change score (-5.7) than Obama’s. Wisconsinites were negative about his Medicare and Obama -6.8 -3.1 3.7 Social Security plans. Romney -5.7 -2.6 3.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%3
    • Virginia Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous ChangeVirginians mostly talked about “Jobs/Economy” 8% Week Weekthis week. One of the main issues in the vice 2% 9% Abortion/Choice 7.8% 2.8% 5.0%presidential debate, “Foreign Policy”, generated 17% 6% Medicare/Socialmany discussions this week in Virginia, making 18% Security 8.7% 18.9% 10.2%it increase by 8.5% in share of voice. However, 40% Protecting thethe other issue, “Medicare/Social Security”, middle class 6.2% 12.1% 5.9%dropped by 10.2%. Jobs/Economy 39.8% 35.1% 4.7% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama led in volume with over Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.7% 17.7% 0% 8,000 mentions. He also led in sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare Obamacare 2.7% 4.8% 2.1% with a score of -7.6. There were many Foreign Policy negative comments saying that his new jobs Foreign Policy 17.1% 8.6% 8.5% report was a lie. Others complained about Obama putting the country further in debt. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney had about 7,000 mentions this week. His score, which stayed Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change at -9.4, was worse than Obama’s. Most of the Virginians criticized Romney on his “cruel” health care plans. Obama -7.6 -1.2 6.4 Romney -9.4 -0.3 9.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%4
    • North Carolina Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week“Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” were the 10%only two issues that saw a boost in their share Abortion/Choice 10.0% 3.0% 7.0% 5% 18%of voice, 7.0% and 10.3% respectively. 15% Medicare/Social 14% 15.5% 18.6% 3.1%“Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most 9% Securitydiscussed issue, while “Foreign Policy” became 29% Protecting the 8.6% 11.7% 3.1% middle classthe second most discussed. Jobs/Economy 28.7% 35.1% 6.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama continued to lead in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 13.9% 16.1% 2.2% volume this week with over 10,000 Budget/Deficit Obamacare mentions. His Sentiment Score improved to Obamacare 5.3% 7.8% 2.5% Foreign Policy a score of -0.6, making him lead in sentiment as well. North Carolinians still Foreign Policy 18.0% 7.7% 10.3% criticized him for the high unemployment rate and the budget deficit, but they believed in Obama’s intent to support all Americans, Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) rather than just a few like what they believed Romney truly intended. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change• Romney: Romney had about 8,000 Obama -0.6 -2.8 2.2 mentions this week. His Sentiment Score dropped by 4.4, as North Carolinians believed Romney’s tax plan only benefited the rich. They also said that he did not truly Romney -5.3 -0.9 4.4 care about the middle class like he said he did. *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%5
    • Florida Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekLike in North Carolina, “Abortion/Choice” and 8% 12%“Foreign Policy” had significant increases this 6% 16% 7% Abortion/Choice 7.7% 2.7% 5.0%week, by 5.0% and 8.7% respectively. This was Medicare/Social 12.2% 18.7% 6.5%mainly because they were talked about in the 19% Securityvice presidential debate. “Jobs/Economy” 32% Protecting the 7.0% 11.9% 4.9% middle classremained the most discussed issue with 32% inshare of voice. Jobs/Economy 32.0% 35.4% 3.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 18.8% 17.2% 1.6%• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Budget/Deficit Obamacare with over 17,000 mentions. However, he did Obamacare 6.3% 6.8% 0.5% Foreign Policy not perform well in sentiment, as his score it dropped by 7.6 (the vice presidential debate Foreign Policy 16.0% 7.3% 8.7% did not help to improve his sentiment score. Instead, Floridians criticized Biden and the Obama Administration on the fact that they Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) did not explain how the budget deficit increased by trillions over three and a half Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change years. Obama -8.3 -0.7 7.6• Romney: The number of conversations about Romney was about 15,000. His Sentiment Score also dropped by 7.3, due to North Carolinians criticizing him for his pro Romney -4.7 2.6 7.3 life stance and for his health care plans. *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%6
    • Ohio Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThis week, Ohioans talked less about 13%“Jobs/Economy” and more about 10% Abortion/Choice 12.6% 3.7% 8.9% 6% 17%“Abortion/Choice”, “Budget deficit”, and “Foreign Medicare/Social 10.2% 16.7% 6.5%Policy”. “Budget deficit” became the most 24% Securitydiscussed issue with 23.4% (+4.8%). 20% Protecting the 9.9% 8.2% 1.7% 10% middle class• Obama: Obama remained in the lead in Jobs/Economy 20.2% 34.9% 14.7% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS volume this week with over 8,000 mentions. Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 23.4% 18.6% 4.8% However, his Sentiment Score dropped by Budget/Deficit Obamacare 8.5. The main topics of criticisms towards Obamacare 6.3% 8.4% 2.1% Foreign Policy Obama in Ohio this week were focused on how bad the economy was under Obama Foreign Policy 17.4% 9.5% 7.9% and how the budget deficit had gotten worse. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney had about 7,000 mentions this week in Ohio and led in Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change sentiment with a score of -7.5. Romney received many negative comments on his Obama -10.4 -1.9 8.5 health care plan, as people stressed that he would cut the Medicaid budget by a third if he was elected. Romney -7.5 -1.7 5.8 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%7
    • Colorado Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekColoradoans discussed much more about 11% 9% 4%“Medicare/Social Security” this week, making 11% Abortion/Choice 8.6% 3.0% 5.6%the issue increase by 9.7% in share of voice. 27% Medicare/Social 27.1% 17.4% 9.7%“Jobs/Economy” remained the most discussed Security 30%issue with 29.5% in share of voice. Protecting the 8.2% 10.9% 2.7% 8% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume with over Jobs/Economy 29.5% 31.2% 1.7% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS 5,000 mentions. However, he lost in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 11.5% 24.2% 12.7% sentiment as his Sentiment Score dropped Budget/Deficit Obamacare by 5.8. Coloradoans criticized him for the Obamacare 4.2% 6.3% 2.1% Foreign Policy high unemployment rate, and some stated that he took ten million dollars’ worth of Foreign Policy 10.9% 7.0% 3.9% taxpayer funded vacations.• Romney: Romney had over 4,000 mentions Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) this week. His Sentiment Score increased slightly by 0.7 but he did not win any favors Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change with Coloradoans for his health care plans. Obama -9.9 -4.1 5.8 Romney -2.8 -3.5 0.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%8
    • New Hampshire Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekThis week, people in New Hampshire shifted 3% 8% 7%their attention from “Protecting the middle class” Abortion/Choice 7.0% 1.4% 5.6%to “Jobs/Economy”. As a result, the issue 18% 20% Medicare/Social 19.9% 14.5% 5.4%“Protecting the middle class” plummeted by Security30.2% in share of voice, and the issue 38% 6% Protecting the 5.8% 36.0% 30.2%“Jobs/Economy” boosted by 13.5% in share of middle classvoice, making it the most discussed issue. Jobs/Economy 38.4% 24.9% 13.5% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.8% 13.0% 5.8%• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Budget/Deficit Obamacare with over 1,000 mentions. He also led in Obamacare 3.1% 5.4% 2.3% Foreign Policy sentiment, after seeing an increase of 4.0 in his Sentiment Score. People in New Foreign Policy 8.0% 4.8% 3.2% Hampshire believed in the jobs and budget deficit reports from the Obama Administration, therefore giving him positive Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) comments. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change• Romney: The volume of mentions about Romney was about 600. His Sentiment Obama 6.5 2.5 4.0 Score increased by 3.7, but still stayed negative at -7.9. People in New Hampshire criticized Romney for his aggressive foreign policies and his health care plans. Romney -7.9 -11.6 3.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%9
    • Nevada Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week “Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” received 12% much more attention this week by Nevadans, Abortion/Choice 12.1% 2.4% 9.7% 4% 17% and they increased by 9.7% and 9.4% in share 13% Medicare/Social 12.6% 20.1% 7.5% of voice respectively. “Budget deficit” also saw 28% Security an increase of 4.4% and became the most 18% 8% Protecting the 7.8% 15.5% 7.7% middle class discussed issue. Jobs/Economy 18.5% 25.1% 6.6% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS • Obama: Obama led in volume with over Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 27.7% 23.3% 4.4% 2,500 mentions. He also led in sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare with a score of -6.7, which dropped by 4.5 Obamacare 3.9% 5.6% 1.7% Foreign Policy from last week. There were some opinions saying that Obama was only making money Foreign Policy 17.4% 8.0% 9.4% for himself through Obamacare. Nevadans also criticized him for the increase in the budget deficit. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) • Romney: Romney had about 2,000 Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change mentions this week. His Sentiment Score dropped by 5.7 to a score of -11.0, as a Obama -6.7 -2.2 4.5 result of negative comments on his plans for the middle class and his foreign policies. Romney -11.0 -5.3 5.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%10
    • Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State Obama Romney Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change Wisconsin -6.8 -3.1 3.7 -5.7 -2.6 3.1 Virginia -7.6 -1.2 6.4 -9.4 -0.3 9.1 North Carolina -0.6 -2.8 2.2 -5.3 -0.9 4.4 Florida -8.3 -0.7 7.6 -4.7 2.6 7.3 Ohio -10.4 -1.9 8.5 -7.5 -1.7 5.8 Colorado -9.9 -4.1 5.8 -2.8 -3.5 0.7 New Hampshire 6.5 2.5 4.0 -7.9 -11.6 3.7 Nevada -6.7 -2.2 4.5 -11.0 -5.3 5.7• Obama only had a positive score in New Hampshire, while his Sentiment Scores in North Carolina and New Hampshire were the only scores that increased this week. He led in sentiment in Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada.• Romney had no positive scores this week. His score only increased slightly in Colorado and New Hampshire.11 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%
    • Share of Voice for Key Issues by State Medicare/ Protecting Abortion/ Jobs/ Budget ForeignState Social the middle Obamacare Choice Economy deficit Policy Security classWisconsin 6.7% 11.2% 14.8% 40.8% 8.8% 2.3% 15.4%Virginia 7.8% 8.7% 6.2% 39.8% 17.7% 2.7% 17.1%North 10.0% 15.5% 8.6% 28.7% 13.9% 5.3% 18.0%CarolinaFlorida 7.7% 12.2% 7.0% 32.0% 18.8% 6.3% 16.0%Ohio 12.6% 10.2% 9.9% 20.2% 23.4% 6.3% 17.4%Colorado 8.6% 27.1% 8.2% 29.5% 11.5% 4.2% 10.9%New 7.0% 19.9% 5.8% 38.4% 17.8% 3.1% 8.0%HampshireNevada 12.1% 12.6% 7.8% 18.5% 27.7% 3.9% 17.4%• “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most popular issue in all states, except for in Ohio and Nevada where “Budget deficit” had the lead. Meanwhile, “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in Colorado, and “Protecting the middle class” was most popular in Wisconsin.12
    • Copyright © 2008-2012 SDL plc. All rights reserved.. All company names, brand names, trademarks,service marks, images and logos are the property of their respective owners.This presentation and its content are SDL confidential unless otherwise specified, and may not becopied, used or distributed except as authorised by SDL.