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Final Presidential Report: November 3 - 9, 2012
 

Final Presidential Report: November 3 - 9, 2012

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This is the final report covering our social media analysis of the presidential election.

This is the final report covering our social media analysis of the presidential election.

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    Final Presidential Report: November 3 - 9, 2012 Final Presidential Report: November 3 - 9, 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • USA Presidential Race2012By Battleground StatesDate Range: November 3 – November 9, 2012 SDL Proprietary and Confidential
    • All Eight States Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekOverall, there was not any major change in 6% 7% 6%share of voice for all issues. “Jobs/Economy” Abortion/Choice 6.0% 6.1% 0.1% 15%was still the most popular issue to discuss. 19% Medicare/Social 14.8% 14.5% 0.3%“Foreign Policy” continued to lose people’s 10%Securityattention. 37% Protecting the 9.7% 6.9% 2.8% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume in all states. Jobs/Economy 37.3% 39.5% 2.2% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS He also led in sentiment, and his Sentiment Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 19.7% 17.2% 2.5% Score was positive in all states. His total Budget/Deficit Obamacare Sentiment Score in all eight states increased Foreign Policy Obamacare 5.8% 5.0% 0.8% by 1.1 this week. Foreign Policy 6.7% 10.8% 4.1%• Romney: Romney’s total Sentiment Score decreased by 1.3, and his Sentiment Score was negative in all states. After the election, Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) the volume of conversations about him dropped significantly. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change Obama 1.7 0.6 1.1 Romney -8.1 -6.8 1.3 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%2
    • Wisconsin Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekIn Wisconsin, the issues “Abortion/Choice”, 6% 6% 10%“Medicare/Social Security”, and “Protecting the 16% Abortion/Choice 10.3% 5.1% 5.2%middle class” attracted more attention this 17% Medicare/Social 16.4% 12.9% 3.5%week, by increasing by 5.2%, 3.5%, and 6.4%, Securityrespectively. “Jobs/Economy” was still the most 32% 13% Protecting the 13.0% 6.6% 6.4% middle classdiscussed issue. Jobs/Economy 32.0% 37.6% 5.6% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 16.5% 20.7% 4.2% with over 7,500 mentions. He also led in Budget/Deficit Obamacare sentiment with a positive score of 2.0. He Obamacare 5.8% 6.3% 0.5% Foreign Policy was praised for winning the election and passing the health care reforms. However, Foreign Policy 6.0% 10.8% 4.8% some people mentioned that he still faced many problems in his second term. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney had about 4,000 mentions this week in Wisconsin. His Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change Sentiment Score decreased further by 4.7 to a score of -9.5. Many people stated that he Obama 2.0 3.7 1.7 did not win the election in Wisconsin because of his plans for the middle class. Romney -9.5 -4.8 4.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%3
    • Virginia Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous ChangeIn Virginia this week, there was not any Week Week 5% 7% 6%significant change in share of voice. 12% Abortion/Choice 5.6% 3.7% 1.9%“Medicare/Social Security” dropped by 5.2%, 25% 10%Medicare/Socialwhile “Protecting the middle class” increased by Security 11.8% 17.0% 5.2%3.3%. Protecting the 35% 10.3% 7.0% 3.3% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 35.5% 35.3% 0.2% with over 14,000 mentions. He also led in Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS sentiment with a positive score of 2.3. many Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 24.8% 22.8% 2.0% Virginians praised Obama’s win in the Budget/Deficit Obamacare Obamacare 5.1% 6.0% 0.9% election and expressed their hopes for the Foreign Policy success of Obamacare. Foreign Policy 6.9% 8.2% 1.3%• Romney: The volume of conversations about Romney was around 6,000. His Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Sentiment Score improved by 4.6 to a score of -6.7. Romney was said to lose the Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change election because he did not offer any useful economic plans. Obama 2.3 1.9 0.4 Romney -6.7 -11.3 4.6 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%4
    • North Carolina Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekNorth Carolinians still mostly discussed the 9% 5% 5% 12%issue “Jobs/Economy”, though it dropped by 8% Abortion/Choice 5.1% 4.3% 0.8%6.7% in share of voice this week. They talked 23% Medicare/Social 11.6% 15.4% 3.8%more about “Budget deficit”, which increased by Security9.0% in share of voice and became the second 38% Protecting the 7.9% 6.5% 1.4% middle classmost discussed issue. Jobs/Economy 37.6% 44.3% 6.7% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 23.5% 14.5% 9.0% with over 15,500 mentions. He also led in Budget/Deficit Obamacare sentiment with a positive score of 1.7 (up Obamacare 4.8% 5.0% 0.2% Foreign Policy 1.3). Besides congratulating Obama for his win on the election, many North Carolinians Foreign Policy 9.5% 10.0% 0.5% praised him for being passionate about restoring the economy. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)• Romney: Romney had about 9,000 mentions in North Carolina this week. His Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change Sentiment Score was at -6.8 (down 1.2). Many North Carolinians said that he lost the Obama 1.7 0.4 1.3 election because his plans only benefited the rich, and the middle class did not support him. Romney -6.8 -5.6 1.2 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%5
    • Florida Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekIn Florida this week, there was not any major 6% 6% 6%change, except “Foreign Policy” dropping 5.5% 16% Abortion/Choice 6.3% 6.6% 0.3%in share of voice. “Jobs/Economy” continued to 17% Medicare/Social 16.1% 13.0% 3.1%be the most discussed issue with 40.5% share 8% Securityof voice. 41% Protecting the 8.0% 6.6% 1.4% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 40.5% 37.2% 3.3% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with over 35,000 mentions. He led in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 16.8% 19.2% 2.4% sentiment with a positive score of 0.8. Budget/Deficit Obamacare Floridians cheered for Obama and for the Obamacare 5.9% 5.5% 0.4% Foreign Policy fact that Obamacare would be successfully implemented. Foreign Policy 6.4% 11.9% 5.5%• Romney: The amount of conversations about Romney was around 20,000. His Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) Sentiment Score decreased by 2.9 from last week. Many Floridians were happy that Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change Romney did not win so that he would not have the chance to mess with the economy Obama 0.8 0.1 0.7 to benefit himself and the rich. Romney -6.7 -3.8 2.9 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%6
    • Ohio Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekOhioans were much more interested in the 7% 5% 5%issue “Budget deficit”, which boosted by 11.4% Abortion/Choice 4.9% 7.7% 2.8% 17%in share of voice this week. “Jobs/Economy” 23% Medicare/Social 17.5% 15.3% 2.2%dropped by 11.4% in share of voice, yet was still 12% Securitythe most discussed issue. 31% Protecting the 11.7% 7.4% 4.3% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 31.0% 42.4% 11.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with over 15,000 mentions. He also led in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 22.9% 12.5% 10.4% sentiment with a positive score of 1.4. He Budget/Deficit Obamacare was praised for supporting the middle class Obamacare 6.8% 3.8% 3.0% Foreign Policy and winning the election. Foreign Policy 5.2% 10.9% 5.7%• Romney: Romney received about 7,000 mentions in Ohio this week. His Sentiment Score did not decrease much and was still Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) negative (-5.8). Many Ohioans shared their happy feelings because Romney did not win. Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change They said the economy and budget deficit would only get worse had Romney been Obama 1.4 -1.4 2.8 elected. Romney -5.8 -5.1 0.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%7
    • Colorado Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekColoradoans talked much more about “Jobs 6% 5% 4% 15%Economy”, which increased by 10.4% in share 13% Abortion/Choice 4.1% 6.4% 2.3%of voice and was the most discussed issue. 10%Medicare/Social 15.3% 18.7% 3.4%They talked much less about “Foreign Policy”, Securitywhich dropped by 8.1% in share of voice. 47% Protecting the 10.3% 7.9% 2.4% middle class• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 46.5% 36.1% 10.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with about 8,000 mentions. He also led in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 12.6% 14.5% 1.9% sentiment with a positive score of 3.5 (up Budget/Deficit Obamacare 3.0). Coloradoans showed their hopes for Obamacare 5.8% 2.9% 2.9% Foreign Policy green jobs as Obama was re-elected. Foreign Policy 5.4% 13.5% 8.1%• Romney: The volume of conversations about Romney was around 3,000. His Sentiment Score decreased by 1.7 to a Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) score of -6.2. He was criticized for not caring for the middle class, and the result Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change was his loss on the election. Obama 3.5 0.5 3.0 Romney -6.2 -4.5 1.7 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%8
    • New Hampshire Share of Voice – Key IssuesKEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week WeekPeople in New Hampshire were more 4% 5% 6% 10%concerned about the issues “Protecting the Abortion/Choice 6.3% 7.9% 1.6%middle class” and “Budget deficit”, which 24% Medicare/Social 24% 9.9% 9.5% 0.4%increased by 17.6% and 12.4% in share of Securityvoice, respectively. The issue “Jobs/Economy” 27% Protecting the 23.9% 6.3% 17.6% middle classdropped by 26.3%, but was still the mostdiscussed issue this week. Jobs/Economy 26.9% 53.2% 26.3% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 23.8% 11.4% 12.4%• Obama: Obama led in volume this week Budget/Deficit Obamacare with over 1,800 mentions. He also led in Obamacare 4.1% 2.6% 1.5% Foreign Policy volume with a positive score of 4.3 (up 2.6). Obama was praised for the fact that the Foreign Policy 5.1% 9.1% 4.0% economy in the last few months improved.• Romney: Romney had about 600 mentions Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) this week in New Hampshire. His Sentiment Score improved significantly by 8.1, but was Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change still a negative score of -6.3. Many people in New Hampshire were glad that Romney was Obama 4.3 1.7 2.6 not elected, otherwise they would have had a worse economy like under Bush. Romney -6.3 -14.4 8.1 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%9
    • Nevada Share of Voice – Key Issues KEY FINDINGS: Current Previous Change Week Week “Jobs/Economy” took up most of the share of 9% 9% 7% Abortion/Choice 8.9% 9.0% 0.1% voice with 37.4% in Nevada this week (dropped by 13.4% from last week). All of the other 14% 18% Medicare/Social 13.9% 8.1% 5.8% issues increased in share of voice, except for 6% Security “Abortion/Choice”. 37% Protecting the 6.2% 5.8% 0.4% middle class • Obama: Obama led in volume this week Jobs/Economy 37.4% 50.8% 13.4% Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS with over 4,000 mentions. He led in Middle Class Jobs/Economy Budget deficit 17.7% 12.8% 4.9% sentiment as well, after having his Sentiment Budget/Deficit Obamacare Score increase by 6.4 to a positive score of Obamacare 7.1% 5.6% 1.5% Foreign Policy 5.6. Nevadans were also pleased with the result of the election and praised Obama for Foreign Policy 8.8% 7.9% 0.9% killing Osama Bin Laden and reviving General Motors. Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) • Romney: Romney received about 2,000 mentions this week. His Sentiment Score Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change decreased further by 7.5 to a score of -14.3. He was still blamed by Nevadans for Obama 5.6 -0.8 6.4 sending jobs to China. Romney -14.3 -6.8 7.5 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%10
    • Candidate Sentiment Score* by State State Obama Romney Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change Wisconsin 2.0 3.7 1.7 -9.5 -4.8 4.7 Virginia 2.3 1.9 0.4 -6.7 -11.3 4.6 North Carolina 1.7 0.4 1.3 -6.8 -5.6 1.2 Florida 0.8 0.1 0.7 -6.7 -3.8 2.9 Ohio 1.4 -1.4 2.8 -5.8 -5.1 0.7 Colorado 3.5 0.5 3.0 -6.2 -4.5 1.7 New Hampshire 4.3 1.7 2.6 -6.3 -14.4 8.1 Nevada 5.6 -0.8 6.4 -14.3 -6.8 7.5• Obama’s Sentiment Score was positive in all states. He only saw his score decrease in Wisconsin.• Romney’s Sentiment Score was negative in all states. Virginia and New Hampshire were the only two states where his score increased.11 *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%
    • Share of Voice for Key Issues by State Medicare/ Protecting Abortion/ Jobs/ Budget ForeignState Social the middle Obamacare Choice Economy deficit Policy Security classWisconsin 10.3% 16.4% 13.0% 32.0% 16.5% 5.8% 6.0%Virginia 5.6% 11.8% 10.3% 35.5% 24.8% 5.1% 6.9%North 5.1% 11.6% 7.9% 37.6% 23.5% 4.8% 9.5%CarolinaFlorida 6.3% 16.1% 8.0% 40.5% 16.8% 5.9% 6.4%Ohio 4.9% 17.5% 11.7% 31.0% 22.9% 6.8% 5.2%Colorado 4.1% 15.3% 10.3% 46.5% 12.6% 5.8% 5.4%New 6.3% 9.9% 23.9% 26.9% 23.8% 4.1% 5.1%HampshireNevada 8.9% 13.9% 6.2% 37.4% 17.7% 7.1% 8.8%• This week, “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most popular issue in all eight states. “Budget deficit” continued to be most popular in Virginia, and “Protecting the middle class” was most popular in New Hampshire.12
    • Copyright © 2008-2012 SDL plc. All rights reserved.. All company names, brand names, trademarks,service marks, images and logos are the property of their respective owners.This presentation and its content are SDL confidential unless otherwise specified, and may not becopied, used or distributed except as authorised by SDL.