India - Where the gap lies - Jadavpur University presentation


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India - Where the gap lies - Jadavpur University presentation

  1. 1. Disaster Management & Climate Change Adaptation: Where the Gap Lies? Research Team Global Change Programme Jadavpur University, Kolkata Presented by Shyamasree Dasgupta In National workshop on Climate Smart disaster Risk Management New Delhi, April 7, 2010
  2. 2. Projected Impacts of Climate Change 0 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Possible rising yields in Falling yields in many some high latitude regions developed regions Water Significant fall in water Small mountain glaciers Sea level rise availability e.g. Mediterranean disappear – melt-water and Southern Africa threatens major cities supplies threatened in several areas Ecosystems Extensive Damage Rising number of species face extinction to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves Events Risk of Abrupt and Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and Major Irreversible abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Changes Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
  3. 3. Vulnerability: Operational Definition Vulnerability = f (Potential Impact -Adaptive Capacity) •Exposure –direct Adaptive Capacity – danger due to Climate potential to cope Variability with impacts •Sensitivity - Human and Environmental Conditions that trigger impact
  4. 4. Disaster management Adaptation Perception Perception:  Disasters are Irregular  Disasters will be increasing  Highly Random Events  Randomness remains: but  Mostly Unpredictable some predictions possible Philosophy : Low probability Philosophy: reduction in of Disaster randomness of disaster Disaster Management emerged as Ad hoc, Adaptation gives scope for pro- Reactive Financial active strategy Support policy aimed development to generate at Impact Damage safeguard against climate Repair vulnerability
  5. 5. Case Studies:
  6. 6. Coastal Inundation in Sagar Block of Indian Sundarban
  7. 7. Damage Cost Asset Lost Physical Damage Damage Cost (Rs) Land 1355 acres 328540000 Livestock 3826 nos. 4304800 Food (paddy) stock 129775 kgs 1946625 Fishing Nets 703 nos. 1054500 Boats 46 nos. 920000 Solar Lighting Systems 1 no. 15000 Savings in liquid cash Rs 163200 163200 Total 336944125
  8. 8. Disaster Management Support Institution Type of Support Government Land, Single Room Brick Houses, Dry Food, Canvas, Embankment Building/Repair NGO Dry Food, Canvas, Information on Natural Calamities Relatives Cash, Manpower  Maximum support received from Government  Maximum compensation for Land Loss (16.8%)  Government Support compensated for only 17% of the Damage Cost
  9. 9. Proposed Adaptation Framework Capital Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure (Cyclone resistant houses, embankment) Maintenance Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure Long term Adaptive Capacity Creation in lieu of Recurring Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure
  10. 10. Disaster Management vs. Adaptation Compensation per household (in Rs Lakhs) 1.9 Investment required per household (in Rs Lakhs) for : a) Cyclone resistant houses & saline embankment 0.83 (44%) b) Cyclone resistant houses & concrete embankment 3.2 (167%) •Mainstreaming of Adaptation Strategy as against Recurring & Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure •Initial investment – High •Long term benefits – Financial, Resilience Capacity Generation and Sustainable Development
  11. 11. Drought Prone River Basins: Sabarmati, Mahanadi & Alakananda
  12. 12. Vulnerability Assessment of Hotspots Category Sabarmati Mahanadi % of hhlds. showing a more than 10% fall in monthly expenditure 84 100 during extreme events % of hhlds showing a more than 10% fall in monthly food budget 28 84 during extreme events % rise in the price of staple food 10 to 50 85 to 150 during extreme events
  13. 13. % of house holds 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Dissav e Borrow money Mortgage property Sell property Lease out property Sell liv estock Sell log Migration Work in Gov t project Sav e f odder Buy f odder Coping Strategies – Sabarmati Hotspot
  14. 14. % of households 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Store dry f ood,medicines Labour w ork Protect livestock Flood resistant houses Contingency f unds Buy polythene Pray Coping Strategies – Mahanadi Hotspot
  15. 15. No. of hhlds. 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 Safe drinking water House damage compensation Easy loans Crop damage compensation Health Facilities Need Curve - Mahanadi Hotspot Reactive Adaptation Need Adaptation S ervice Demanded Fig. 71 Need Curve – Mahanadi Hotspot Food aid Communication links PDS
  16. 16. Possible Policies  Agricultural Insurance  Infrastructure Development by Stakeholders  R&D into Alternative Farming Technology - Inter-Cropping - Crop substitution
  17. 17. Derived Conceptual Framework
  18. 18. Proactive/ Planned Adaptation Strategy Asset Creation Investment in Increase in Resources Adaptive Capacity Increase in Decline in Productivity & Vulnerability Surplus Increase in Resilience
  19. 19. THANK YOU