• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies - The use of demand profiling within sales & operations planning
 

Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies - The use of demand profiling within sales & operations planning

on

  • 367 views

Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies spoke at the SCL Event UK 2013

Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies spoke at the SCL Event UK 2013

Statistics

Views

Total Views
367
Views on SlideShare
367
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies - The use of demand profiling within sales & operations planning Donald Walker, Global Supply Planning Director at Life Technologies - The use of demand profiling within sales & operations planning Presentation Transcript

    • Donald WalkerSupply Chain DirectorDemand Profiling
    • Agenda AgendaIntroductions IntroductionsPlanning in Life Technologies Planning in Life TechnologiesDemand profiling ––principles, process & practice Demand profiling principles, process & practiceQ&AQ&A
    • The first point to consider: The first point to consider:ALWAYS aagood thing to do first. ALWAYS good thing to do first.Even planning professionals Even planning professionalsneed aareminder sometimes…. need reminder sometimes….
    • Donald WalkerDonald WalkerBiologist & Biomaterials Scientist Biologist & Biomaterials ScientistWorked for ––Vascutek, Johnson & Johnson Medical, Allied Distillers, Amazon & Worked for Vascutek, Johnson & Johnson Medical, Allied Distillers, Amazon &Invitrogen (Life Technologies) Invitrogen (Life Technologies)Worked in --R&D, Technical & Process Development, Manufacturing, Project Worked in R&D, Technical & Process Development, Manufacturing, ProjectManagement, Quality, Continuous Improvement, Supply Chain (Demand Planning, Management, Quality, Continuous Improvement, Supply Chain (Demand Planning,Supply Planning and Procurement) Supply Planning and Procurement)April 2006 ––“Why don’t you give materials management aago?” April 2006 “Why don’t you give materials management go?”
    • Life Technologies Life TechnologiesHeadquartered in Carlsbad, California Headquartered in Carlsbad, CaliforniaRecent merger between Invitrogen and Applied BioSystems Recent merger between Invitrogen and Applied BioSystemsLife Sciences company Life Sciences company --Biotech Tools Biotech Tools --Diagnostics Diagnostics --Laboratory instrumentation including Genetic Sequencing Laboratory instrumentation including Genetic Sequencing --Moving into applied markets ––Food Safety, Animal Health and others Moving into applied markets Food Safety, Animal Health and othersLife Technologies by the numbers.. Life Technologies by the numbers..10,000 employees 10,000 employees~$4B Revenue ~$4B Revenue23 Manufacturing sites 23 Manufacturing sites50,000 products 50,000 products
    • A complex supply chain A complex supply chain-Products shipped in nanogram vials to standard pallets -Products shipped in nanogram vials to standard pallets-Temperature sensitivity -Temperature sensitivity-Hazardous products & permit requirements aagrowing feature -Hazardous products & permit requirements growing feature-Cross branch planning and inventory cascading -Cross branch planning and inventory cascading--50,000 products 50,000 products-Varied customer base; large Pharma, Universities, Govt Agencies -Varied customer base; large Pharma, Universities, Govt Agencies--22ERP systems & Demand Solutions ERP systems & Demand Solutions-Statistical forecasting and ReOrder Point management -Statistical forecasting and ReOrder Point management--Matrix Management ––Division, Region, Function & Network Matrix Management Division, Region, Function & Network
    • Product Examples Product ExamplesCell Culture Media Cell Culture Media Nucleic Acid Purification Nucleic Acid Purification Genetic Analysis Genetic Analysis
    • Upstream Control Downstream Forgiveness Demand planning Supply Plan Capacity management Order management Inventory policies Forecast phasing Hedging ordersRevenue Forecast Short Term PlanRegional StockingStrategy Supply Production Schedule Plan PlanStandardised order ofproduction Long Term Plan ManufactureUtilisation PlanInventory Policy DRP DistributeScrap LiabilitySVOP Plan
    • Demand Profiling Demand ProfilingCustomer or demand segmentation Customer or demand segmentation Runners, Repeaters and Strangers characterisation Runners, Repeaters and Strangers characterisation --based on frequency & predictability of ordering or volume based on frequency & predictability of ordering or volumeDemand profiling is based on purchasing pattern Demand profiling is based on purchasing pattern --Frequency of orders Frequency of orders --Order, Line and Unit comparisons Order, Line and Unit comparisons --Customer location & lead time Customer location & lead time --Analysed in time series Analysed in time series --Group and manage products based on their demand behaviour Group and manage products based on their demand behaviourSupported by basic statistics and basic, internally-developed tools Supported by basic statistics and basic, internally-developed tools
    • All progress comes from aa All progress comes fromwillingness to change… willingness to change…Data can change “a view” Data can change “a view”into aareal conversation. into real conversation.Demand profiling supports aa Demand profiling supportshealthy conversation. healthy conversation.“Pay me now…. Or “Pay me now…. OrPay me later. Pay me later.
    • Two populations of SKUs Two populations of SKUsSignificant change in buying Significant change in buyingbehaviour from November behaviour from NovemberChange in unit demand, not Change in unit demand, notnecessarily order or line counts necessarily order or line counts
    • Two populations of SKUs Two populations of SKUsOne population exhibits One population exhibitssignificant spike in June and significant spike in June andSeptember (quarter end) September (quarter end)Change in unit demand, not Change in unit demand, notnecessarily order or line counts necessarily order or line countsSpecific to one customer? Specific to one customer?Self inflicted? Self inflicted?
    • Sample Data ––understanding buying behaviour… Sample Data understanding buying behaviour… Avg. Avg. StDev Weekly % Change in Weekly Weekly Avg. Weekly Avg. Sales Sales Avg. Sales Weekly Sales Unique Unique Unique Units Units Relative Sales Orders Order Units Orders (52- Order Units Orders (26 Wks Customers Customers Customers SKU Region Total (26 Wks) (26 Wks) StDev (26 Wks) (26 Wks) 27 Wks) (52-27 Wks) vs. Prev. 26 Wks) (26 Wks) (52 Wks) (52-27 Wks)4389758 All 484 1.08 2.77 257% 0.46 2.33 0.69 1.56 -33.33% 11 21 154389760 All 550 1.50 2.86 191% 0.65 2.29 1.27 1.18 -48.48% 14 30 234389762 All 158 0.69 2.00 288% 0.27 2.57 0.12 6.00 133.33% 7 10 34389764 All 441 5.38 4.49 83% 2.85 1.89 2.69 2.00 5.71% 64 111 61Basic statistics: Basic statistics:Mean, SD, RSD, Mean : :Median ratio, Modal qty, Correlation Mean, SD, RSD, Mean Median ratio, Modal qty, CorrelationNot an exact science (non normal data) but useful for filtering Not an exact science (non normal data) but useful for filtering
    • First and last purchase ––New customers and lost customers First and last purchase New customers and lost customersOne off purchases and stable buying One off purchases and stable buyingIrregular buying but consistent qty: Irregular buying but consistent qty:Modal qty is very useful in avoiding problems with arithmetic ROP values. Modal qty is very useful in avoiding problems with arithmetic ROP values.
    • This is a one off order for the SKU from this Ship To This is the first time* that this Ship To ordered this SKU KEYShip to: 111659 This Ship To has and will order this SKU w/Demand* This is the last time* that this Ship To ordered this SKURegion: (Leave Blank for Global) This Ship To has and will order this SKU no Demand* * within the data set Total Units 201050 201051 201053 201103 201105 201107 201109 201110 201112 201114 201116 201118 201120 201122 201126 201128 201129 201130 201135 201137 201139 201141 201143 201049 201052 201102 201104 201106 201108 201111 201113 201115 201117 201119 201121 201123 201124 201125 201127 201131 201132 201133 201134 201136 201138 201140 201142 SKU Sold To 4415129 2 2 4463027 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4464531 31 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 4453237 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4459193 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4463012 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Detailed data ––provides aacustomer-based view of purchase history Detailed data provides customer-based view of purchase history
    • Diverging behaviour driven change in buying behaviour Diverging behaviour driven change in buying behaviourAnalysis led to change in stocking strategy and revised forecast Analysis led to change in stocking strategy and revised forecastphasing for production planning from Q1 2011. Monitored phasing for production planning from Q1 2011. Monitoredweekly. weekly.
    • Turning data into information Turning data into information --Identify customer & Account Manager Identify customer & Account Manager--Discuss factors in demand behaviour Discuss factors in demand behaviour--Determine whether we can influence buying pattern Determine whether we can influence buying pattern--Can we plan around it? Can we plan around it? --Change regional inventory Change regional inventory --Hedge inventory “just in time” Hedge inventory “just in time” --Rely on cross branch cascade Rely on cross branch cascade --Change forecast phasing Change forecast phasing --Capacity management Capacity management
    • Results ––Example of improved availability from one EU manufacturing site Results Example of improved availability from one EU manufacturing siteDemand profiling was critical in understanding what & how to improve Demand profiling was critical in understanding what & how to improve
    • Results ––Example of product group from one European manufacturing site Results Example of product group from one European manufacturing siteGreat progress in EMEA where most issues are related to abnormal demand orders. Great progress in EMEA where most issues are related to abnormal demand orders.Room for improvement in APAC ––high growth area for these products in Q4 Room for improvement in APAC high growth area for these products in Q4Low order count (misses have aahigh % impact) Low order count (misses have high % impact)
    • Final thought…. Final thought….Customer Experience Customer ExperienceReally? Really?Demand profiling Demand profilingestablishes information establishes informationabout buying behaviour about buying behaviourWe can ask “why” and, We can ask “why” and,sometimes, change the sometimes, change thebehaviour. behaviour.
    • Thank you Thank youQuestions and comments?Questions and comments?