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Wu Wenbin — Model based assessment of potential risks of food insecurity at a global scale
 

Wu Wenbin — Model based assessment of potential risks of food insecurity at a global scale

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security ...

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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    Wu Wenbin — Model based assessment of potential risks of food insecurity at a global scale Wu Wenbin — Model based assessment of potential risks of food insecurity at a global scale Presentation Transcript

    • International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security Model-based Assessment of Potential Risks of Food Insecurity at a Global Scale Wenbin WU(吴文斌) Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
    • What is food security? Food security—all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO,1996). “让所有人在任何时候都能在物质上和经济上获得充足的、 安全的和有营养的食物,来满足其积极和健康生活的膳食需 要及食物喜好”
    •  The food security status of any group can be normally considered as the principle outcome of food systems.
    • Four components of food security Food availability: the availability of sufficient food, i.e., to the overall ability of the agricultural system to meet food demand. Food accessibility: the ability of a unit of individuals to obtain access to acquire appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Food utilization: individual or household capacity to consume and benefit from food. More recently, as climate change issues have caught great attention from the world, food stability is also considered one important component of food security.  individuals who are at high risk of temporarily or permanently losing their access to the resources needed to consume adequate food.
    • Understanding food security is of great implications Many countries (in particular developing countries) are fighting against the food crisis in different ways. These are usually based on a better understanding of the dynamics, risks and forces that shape the factors affecting food security . Assessment of food security status is thus high on the policy agenda of most countries. FAO, 2009 IFPRI, 2009
    • What about the future situation? There has been considerable progress in assessing food security at different space and time scales. We have little knowledge about the future food security situation:  How it will evolve over time and what are the major impacts of these future changes? It is not possible to predict future food security status due to uncertainties in future social, political and economic development.
    • What about the future situation? It is possible to explore what might happen given certain assumptions about societal and environmental changes through scenario construction:  Improved foresight of food security can help better inform policy decisions. Scenario-based studies provide an appropriate tool to develop plausible visions of future pathways of food security This research attempts to assess the potential risks of food insecurity under given future scenarios.
    • Methodology in this study Those studies, which focus only on crop production, provide only a partial assessment of food security. A holistic approach for assessment of food security is used in this study to cover the major components of food security as many as possible. A multi-factor, multi-model and spatially explicit assessment method is proposed in this study.
    • A spatially explicit assessment method Traditional method: assessment of food security are normally conducted at a national or regional level. Time1 Time2 Secure or Security grades? These analyses of food security have some limitations: 3  Not reflect the considerable variations in the food security situation within a particular country or region.  Coarse results and lower spatial location description.
    • A a spatially explicit assessment method This study: specific attention is paid to develop a spatially explicit assessment method for food security. Time1 Time2 Secure or Security grades in each pixel 3 Spatial information technologies (Remote sensing, GIS and Spatial models) are used for method development.
    • A multi-factor and multi-model method Biophysical Social factors Economic factors factorsFactors Food production Population Gross Domestic status Product (GDP) Per capita food Per capita GDPIndicators availability Food availability Food accessibility and stability and affordability Crop yields Crop sown areas Crop price and tradeModels GIS-based EPIC Crop choice IFPSIM model model decision model
    • Crop area model—crop choice decision model The crop choice decision model was used to analyze the changes in crop areas by investigating changes in crop choice decisions among a variety of available alternatives. Natural ecosystem Crop choice decision Land user Landscape Socio-economic system
    • Crop yield model—GIS-based EPIC model The GIS-based EPIC was used to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment. Soils Planting date Wheat Harvest date Maize Cropping system Rice Global land use Soybean Topography Irrigation
    • Crop price model—IFPRIM model Crop price was assessed by the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model. Food supply (In collaboration with the University of Tokyo, Japan)
    • Future scenario setting Scenario development Scenario analysis Time period for scenario analysis: 2000-2020
    • Socio-economic scenarios: describes the key elements, such as demography,economic development, technology, and policy interventions, which together providethe description of a possible future state of the world. IPCC SRES: A1 scenario Total population for countries Global total GDP High economic growth rate Growth rate of urban population for countries Global total population Relatively low population growth Growth rate of GM crops for major countries Average growth rate of global urban population
    • Climate change scenarios: Defines the major features of future climate change, which may strongly drivechanges in the crop yield and cropping systems in future; Monthly maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation databetween 2000 and 2020 were obtained from the high resolution projections ofMIROC (developed by the University of Tokyo, Japan). MIROC simulated CRU observation MIROC simulated data for 1901-2000 data for 1901-2000 data for 2000-2020 (1.1 degree) (0.5 degree) (1.1 degree) Downscaling Downscaling Downscaling (0.1 degree) (0.1 degree) (0.1 degree) 100 1800 100 1800 20 1800 year year year 3600 3600 3600 Grid by grid regression Method for climate data calibration Grid by grid bias correction
    • Steps for assessing potential risks of food insecurityStep 1: Based on the simulated crop yields and crop areas, the changes in total food production were assessed by comparing the food production in 2020 with that in 2000. Change ratio of total food production (CR_p) was calculated with the following Equation: 4 ∑ i =1 Yi 2020 * Ai2020 CR- p- 4 ∑ i =1 Yi 2000 * Ai2000 Y is the crop yield for crop type i; A is the crop areas for crop type i; n is the total number of crops.
    • Steps for assessing potential risks of food insecurityStep 2: To understand whether the projected changes in total food production will influence the overall food availability, relative changes in per capita food availability (CR_a) for the same period were calculated: 4 ∑ i =1 Yi 2020 * Ai2020 POP 2020 CR- a- 4 ∑ i =1 Yi 2000 * Ai2000 POP 2000 Y is the crop yield for crop type i; A is the crop areas for crop type i; POP is the total population; n is the total number of crops.
    • 4. Steps for assessing potential risks of food insecurityStep 3: A separate analysis for the changes in per capita GDP were undertaken because it can strongly impact the purchasing power and determine whether a country or region is able to import more food from outside.  First computed the overall increase in per capita GDP between 2000 and 2020.  Then calculated the relative difference between the growth rate of per capita GDP in a grid cell and the average per capita growth rate.
    • Steps for assessing potential risks of food insecurityStep 4: The changes in per capita food availability and the changes in per capita GDP were combined to examine the hotspots of potential risks of food insecurity for the study period through identifying the areas:  With decreased per capita food availability.  With a slower growth rate of per capita GDP than the average growth rate.
    • Simulation results--changes in crop yields Rice Yi 2020 CR- 2000 YiCR: change ratio;Y: crop yield forcrop type i; Maize
    • Simulation results--changes in crop yields Wheat Yi 2020 CR- 2000 YiCR: change ratio;Y: crop yield forcrop type i; Soybean
    • Simulation results--changes in crop areas 2000 2020
    • Simulation results--changes in crop areas Sown Area (in million hectares) 160 2000 2020 120 80 40 0 Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Soybean Rice Maize Rice Maize Rice Maize Rice Maize Rice Maize Rice Maize Africa Asia Europe Latin-America North-America Oceania Sown areas of rice, maize and wheat were predicted to increase in each continent. Soybean areas declined in Africa, Asia and North- America, but slightly increased in other regions.
    • Changes in total food production Changes in total food production 4 ∑Y i =1 i 2020 * Ai2020CR- 4 ∑Y i =1 i 2000 * Ai2000 CR: change ratio; Y: crop yield for crop type i; A: crop areas for crop type i.Climate change will result in a reduction in total food production during 2000–2020 in several regions such as southern China, southern and south-eastern Asia, western and eastern Europe, Northern Great Plains in USA, Brazil and some African countries.Climate change will lead to an increase in total food production in some regions in northern China, northern India, northern Europe, Central USA, Argentina, Australia and some eastern African countries such as Kenya and Zimbabwe.
    • Changes in per capita food availability Change in per capita food availability Total 2020 / POP 2020CR- Total 2000 / POP 2000 CR: change ratio; Total: total food production; POP: Total population.A substantial increase in per capita food availability can be found in Northeast China, eastern and southern Europe, USA and Brazil.Noticeable increase can also be found in southeastern Asia, Argentina, south-eastern Africa and Australia.Decreases in per capita food availability are located in Northern and Southern China, most southern and south-eastern Asian countries, western Europe, USA, Brazil, Argentina, and most African countries.
    • Changes in per capita GDP Change in per capita GDP with respect to the global averageAreas with the highest growth rate of GDP per capita are located in developing countries such as China, south-eastern Asian countries and Latin-American countries, and some south-eastern and northern African countries such as Botswana, Mozambique, Morocco and Egypt.The areas located in southern Asian countries and most African countries are likely to experience a dramatic decrease in the capacity to import food on a per capita basis than currently as the growth rates of GDP in these areas are 35-50% lower than the world average.
    • Potential risks of global food insecurityImprove the food security situation: either an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food.Remain the hotspots of food insecurity: a decrease in both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food.
    • Potential risks of global food insecurityDeveloped countries will still be food-secure: their populations less rely on subsistence agriculture, have higher financial support and purchasing power, the substantial adaptive capacity and proactive food management systems.
    • Recommendations for reducing food insecurity risksProtect the quantity and quality of farmlands and invest more to improve land productivity so as to provide enough food supply (Food Availability).Build efficient agricultural subsidy systems to improve the farming income and strengthen purchase power(Food Affordability).Reform the food circulation and agricultural commodity trade systems to enlarge food supply by linking to outside international and domestic market (Food Accessibility).Actively improve the adaptive capability of agriculture in response to climate change to ensure a stable food production(Food Stability).
    • International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security Thank you very much for your attention!!! wwb@mail.caas.net.cn