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Wang Jing — Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry
 

Wang Jing — Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security ...

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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    Wang Jing — Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry Wang Jing — Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry Presentation Transcript

    • ICCCFS, 2011 Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry Xuebiao Pan, Jing Wang China Agricultural University Dec 8, 2011, Beijing
    • Outline♣ Grassland and husbandry in China♣ Past and future climate change trend♣ Change trend of extreme weather events g♣ Impact of climate change and extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry♣ Adaptation of grassland and husbandry to climate change and extreme weather events
    • 1. Grassland and husbandry in y China 3
    • Grassland and husbandry in China 草地占国土面积百分比 Its total area amounts to Grassland area ratio(%)about 400 million hectares, Naccounting for 41% of total W Eland area in China. S Grassland area of sixpprovinces and autonomousregions in western China,reaches 270 million hectares,accounting for 70% of totalgrassland area in China. Chinab.shp County93.shp 0 Grassland area in North 0.1 - 1% 1 - 5%China (Inner Mongolia, 5 - 10% 10 - 20% 20 - 40%Xinxiang, Qinghai) accounts 40 - 60% 60 - 80% >80%for 45% of total grassland County93.shparea in China. 4
    • Main grassland type in ChinaGrassland Type Grassland area (million ha)Alpine Meadow 64Temperate Steppe 47Lowland Meadow 35Alpine Steppe 30Mountain Meadow 22Temperate Desert p 20Tropical Tussock 19Temperate Meadow Steppe 18Tropical Shrub Tussock 17Temperate Desert Steppe p pp 16Warm Temperate Shrub 12TussockWarm Temperate Tussock 11Temperate 7Alpine Desert Steppe 6Alpine Meadow Steppe 5Alpine Desert 5Swamp 2Dry Tropical Shrub Tussock 1with Savanna 5
    • Grassland and husbandry in North China Grassland and husbandry occupies key position in North China China. 300 y = 0 231 2 - 916 9 + 90683 0.231x 916.9x 250 R² = 0.983 Mea output /10kt 200 Inner Mongolia 150 at 100 y = 0.757x - 1492. 50 Qinghai Q g R² = 0.968 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year 6
    • Meat output (10kt) in China in 2007 Ratio of pork Ratio of beef and mutton Ratio of mutton Total Pork Beef Mutton to total to total to totalQH 31.4 7.6 14.5 8.7 0.242 0.739 0.277XJ 125.7 17.5 31.4 60.5 0.139 0.731 0.481IM 205.0 60.3 39.4 80.8 0.294 0.586 0.394NX 22.8 8.3 6.5 5.7 0.364 0.535 0.250GS 76.9 41.8 14.5 14.6 0.544 0.378 0.190HB 396.2 225.5 57.7 24.3 0.569 0.207 0.061HN 542.9 42 9 339 82.1 82 1 25.3 2 3 0.624 0 624 0.198 0 198 0.047 0 04SD 618.7 300.1 69.2 33 0.485 0.165 0.053BJ 47.9 22.4 2.8 1.9 0.468 0.098 0.040SCH 564.2 408.5 28.6 23.8 0.724 0.093 0.042GZH 150.6 125.6 9.5 2.8 0.834 0.082 0.019GX 329.0 329 0 206.2 11.7 206 2 11 7 2.7 27 0.627 0 627 0.044 0 044 0.008 0 008 7
    • Grassland and husbandry in North China In 2007, beef and mutton productivity of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Qinhai reached 2.35 million tons, accounting for 65% of regional total meat productivity. It was much larger than national averaged ratio of 14.5% . Grassland and husbandry in North China is very important to the supply of beef and mutton for the demands of people in China. 8
    • 2. Past and future climate change trend 9
    • Change trend of annual maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall from 1961 to 2010 in Inner MongoliaMaximum temperature Minimum temperature Rainfall increased inincreased significantly at a increased significantly at a western Inner Mongoliarate of 0.19 to 0.43 rate of 0.13 to 1.03 °C/10y, y, and decreased in eastern°C/10y, especially in especially in the central Inner Mongolia, but notnortheastern Inner Inner Mongolia. significant at 90% level.Mongolia. 10
    • Change trend of annual maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall under 2041 to 2070 compared with p p baseline in Inner MongoliaMaximum temperature Minimum temperature Rainfall increased by 60increased by 0 °C to 4 °C increased by 0 °C to 5 °C mm to 120 mm in easternin most areas of Inner os e s o e in most areas of Inner Inner Mongolia g andMongolia compared with Mongolia compared with decreased by 0 to 60 mm inbaseline climate. baseline climate. western Inner Mongolia compared with baseline climate. 11
    • 3. Change trend of extreme weather events th t 12
    • Change trend of the high (>30 ℃) and low (<0 ℃) temperature days in Inner MongoliaHighHi h temperature d days showed a significant i h d i ifi increasetrend, and low temperature days showed a significantdecrease trend especially in western Inner Mongolia trend, Mongolia. 13
    • Change trend of the snow days in Winter (Dec.-Feb.) in Inner Mongolia The Th snow d days i winter showed a significant i in i h d i ifi increase trend in most area of Inner Mongolia. 14
    • 4. Impact of climate change and4 I t f li t h d extreme weather events on g grassland and husbandryy 15
    • Correlation of the period of turning green date and temperature inspring (a); correlation of the period of flowering and precipitation (b) of Wheatgrass at Xianghuang Qi 180 250 y = -17.62x + 212.60 17 62 212 60 (b) 2 R = 0.52 P<0.01 期(d) 225 期(d) 150 冰草开花期冰草返青期 120 200 冰冰 90 175 y = 0.32x + 172.05 (a) 2 R = 0.39 P<0.05 60 150 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 160.0 1995-2007年春季平均温度(℃) 1995-2007年7月降水量(mm) Spring Temperature S i T t Precipitation in July 16
    • AbovegroundField Survey over 3 biomassyears: (g/m2) 300 XilinhotThere is larger 200difference betweenthe spatial and Sonid Zuoqi 100temporal di t ib tit l distribution 0of grass biomass. Darhan 2006年 2007年 2008年 Muminggan Year q qi Aboveground boveg ou d biomass (g/m2) Year/Site 2006 2007 2008 Ave Var CV Xilinhot 189.1 82.7 210.4 160.7 68.42 0.43 Sonid Zuoqi 14.7 66.4 54.1 45.0 26.99 0.60 17 Darhan Muminggan qi 85.4 87.9 181.6 118.3 54.82 0.46
    • Correlation of biomass production and annual p p precipitation p in typical sites in Inner Mongolia 18
    • Main disasters in grassland and husbandryHeavy snow • Influencing the forage intake of cattle and sheep h • Leading to death of cattle and sheep due to starvation and cold. • Influencing the transportation of forage to pasturing area • Leading to spring flood due to snow melting From December 2009 to March 2010, there was serious snowstorm happened in Altay city in Xinjiang autonomous region. The affected population reached 580 thousand and the affected animal reached 2273 thousand. Direct economic losses caused by snowstorm reached nearly 0.2 billion Yuan.
    • Main disasters in grassland livestock grassland-livestockDrought • Decreasing grass biomass • Leading to death of cattle and sheep due to black disaster
    • Drought in 2009 Grassland in Siziwangqi, Inner Mongolia Grassland in Hulun Beier , Inner MongoliaGrassland in Zaohe, Inner Mongolia
    • Drought disaster classification in pasture area Whole Turning Tillering - Heading- Flowering- Maturing-Classification growth green- Heading Flowering Maturing Wilting period TilleringNon-drought Wd<0.7 Wd<0.6 Wd<0.5 Wd<0.5 Wd<0.6 Wd<0.7 g Light 0.7=<Wd<1.0 0.6=<Wd<0.9 0.5=<Wd<0.8 0.5=<Wd<0.8 0.6=<Wd<0.9 0.7=<Wd<1.0 Medium 1.0=<Wd<1.3 0.9=<Wd<1.2 0.8=<Wd<1.1 0.8=<Wd<1.1 0.9=<Wd<1.2 1.0=<Wd<1.3 Heavy 1.3=<Wd<1.6 1.2=<Wd<1.5 1.1=<Wd<1.4 1.1=<Wd<1.4 1.2=<Wd<1.5 1.3=<Wd<1.6 Severe 1.6=<Wd 1.5=<Wd 1.4=<Wd 1.4=<Wd 1.5=<Wd 1.6=<Wd
    • Snow disaster classification in pasture area Snow indicator : snow depth(SDR), snow area p ( ), Grass yield y LivestockClassification ratio(SAR), days of snow(SDAY) indicator (%) death (%)Light SDR< 50% ,SAR< 50% ,SDAY 3-7 d. < 25% < 10%Medium SDR 50-70% ,SAR 50-70% ,SDAY 8-14 d. 25-65% 10-20%Heavy SDR 70-90% ,SAR 70-90% ,SDAY 15-21 d. 65 -100% 20-30%Severe SDR> 90% ,SAR> 90% ,SDAY> 21 d SAR> SDAY> d. > 100% > 30%
    • 5. Adaptation of grassland andhusbandry to climate change and extreme weather events 24
    • (1) Implementation of grassland ecological constructionproject under the support of government. • returning cropping land to forage land • Beijing-Tianjin Sand Storm Source 25
    • (2) Moderate grazing based on the balance of livestockand grass to prevent grassland degradation. • Rotational grazing and seasonal grazing • Fencing and delay grazing • prohibiting grazing 26
    • (3) Enhancing pastoral production capacity and improving the ability of disaster prevention. • grass storing in winter • building shed to prevent snowstorm 27
    • (4) Combination of faming and grazing to ensure the supply of f l f forage. • forage breeding g g • cereal-forage rotation 28
    • (5) Adjusting the industrial structure , improving herd structure and i t t d improving th ability of li t k i the bilit f livestock groups adapting to climate change • developing tourism and processing industry • animal breeding 29
    • (6) Enhancing training and pastoral management under the direction of government policies and improving the awareness of farmers and herders to adapt to climate change 30
    • Summary• In the last 50 years, Significant climate change has been detected in Inner Mongolia. Mongolia Future climate change scenarios show the maximum and minimum temperature would increase by 0 °C to 6 °C.• Climate h Cli t change and extreme weather events h d t th t have significant i fl i ifi t influence on grassland and husbandry. Climate warming and drying will lead to the degradation of grassland ecosystem and the reduction of grass biomass. Extreme weather events would exert serious impact on grass biomass, the supply of feeds and grazing capacity.• Detailed studies on how grassland and husbandry respond to extreme weather events across climatic regions would provide useful insight for the development future de elopment of f t re adaptation strategies strategies. 31
    • Acknowledgements g• This work was supported by the Adapting to Climate Change in China i Chi (ACCC) project, f d d b th UK D j t funded by the Department f t t for International Development (DFID), the Swiss Agency for Development & Co-operation (SDC), and the UK Department for Energy and Cli t Ch f E d Climate Change (DECC) (DECC).• We sincerely thank Prof Yinlong Xu (CAAS) for his helpful Prof. comments on the project. 32
    • Thank you for your attention ! 33