Sikhalazo Dube — South African Food Security and Climate Change

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Sikhalazo Dube — South African Food Security and Climate Change

  1. 1. Country Authors:Sikhalazo Dube  (Agriculture Research Council‐API)&Robert J Scholes (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research‐NRE)Modeling team:Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason‐D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo, International Food Policy Research Institute 6‐8 November 2011International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security –Beijing, CHINA
  2. 2. IntroductionFood security for South Africa’s inhabitants is enshrined in the constitution (section 27 of constitution …“the state must by legislation and other measures, within its available resources, avail to progressive realization of the right to sufficient food’’….) large portion of South Africa’s population under‐ or mal‐nourished both in urban (a consequence of rural urban migration and depressed job markets) and rural areas 
  3. 3. Population Trends: Total Population, Rural Population, and Percent Urban, 1960‐2008
  4. 4. IntroductionFood insecurity is further increased by the negative impacts of HIV‐AIDS on the ability of the active population to produce foodThe projected decline in precipitation and increase in temperature (>1°C) will bring about stress in the food production sector
  5. 5. Role of Agriculture in the South African Economy Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP from agriculture
  6. 6. GCM Projected Climate Changes
  7. 7. Changes in annual maximum temperature between 2000 and 2050 (°C)
  8. 8. Changes in mean annual precipitation between 2000 and 2050 (mm per year).
  9. 9. Scenarios to Adaptation (Biophysical)
  10. 10. Consumption of leading food commodities, average of 2003-2006 (Source: FAOSTAT (FAO, 2010)Rank  Crop  % of total  Food consumption  (000 mt) 1 Maize 21.80% 4,9522 Wheat 11.50% 2,6153 Beer 11.00% 2,5084 Sugar (Raw Equivalent) 6.60% 1,5105 Potatoes 5.80% 1,3186 Vegetables, Other 5.50% 1,2587 Poultry Meat 4.70% 1,0748 Rice (Milled Equivalent) 3.30% 7479 Beverages, Fermented 3.30% 747 Total 100.00% 22,748
  11. 11. Yield change under climate change scenario for rainfed  maize MIROC3.2 medium resolution ECHAM5 GCM GCM
  12. 12. Yield change under climate change scenario for irrigated  maize
  13. 13. Yield change under climate change scenario for wheat
  14. 14. Scenarios to Adaptation(Income and demographics)
  15. 15. GDP Per Capita ScenariosSource: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011, computed from WorldBank and United Nations population estimates (2008 revision)
  16. 16. Scenarios to Adaptation(Crop specific vulnerabilities)
  17. 17. Scenario outcomes for maizeYield Price Net Export
  18. 18. Scenario outcomes for wheat PriceYield Net Export
  19. 19. Scenario outcomes for sugarcane PriceYield Net Export
  20. 20. Human Vulnerability Scenarios Outcomes
  21. 21. NutritionAverage daily kilocalories availability under Number of malnourished children under 5 yearsmultiple income and climate scenarios of age under multiple income and climate(kilocalories per person per day) scenarios
  22. 22. Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
  23. 23. GHG Emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs,  HFCs, SF6) in South Africa by Sector
  24. 24. SummaryThere is a strong warming throughout South Africa t0 2050. Net drying over the country as a whole, but spatial variation between the south western regions and the north eastern regions, which have different implications for different crops. Per‐hectare yields of the staple carbohydrate crop, maize, are predicted to rise moderately and linearly until 2050, despite the warming and national drying. Predictions  suggests that the climate within the main maize‐growing areas remains tolerable for maize, but may also conceal unjustified assumptions regarding the availability of irrigation water. Projected increase the net imports of maize five‐fold, and the price of maize two‐fold is a serious food security concern.
  25. 25. SummaryProjections of wheat yield per hectare increases are unlikely, given the geographical distribution of wheat in South Africa, largely in the south westThe net import of wheat increases and the price of wheat is projected to increase 2.5 times; a concern particularly for the urban poor.Calorie production per capacity remains at close to the adequate baseline of 3000 kilocalories/day for the base socioeconomic scenario ;  this would lead to child malnutrition outcomes much larger than those projected by the model.
  26. 26. SummaryCrops used for animal feed – maize, sorghum and soybean – all show trends that would make feedlot animal production substantially more expensive.Large increases in sugar cane production are projected, based on both yield and area planted increases that we consider unlikely considering limits on the suitable land, water and markets.The analysis indicates substantive reasons for concern regarding agricultural and food security futures in South Africa. Autonomous adaptation, using market responses only, are unlikely to be able to adjust to the local food deficits. Global mitigation steps and local adaptation interventions are called for.
  27. 27. THE END ?

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