Sergey Kiselev — Russia’s Food Security and Climate Change

S. Kiselev, R. Romashkin – Lomonosov Moscow State University

Climate changesPopulationIncome changesVulnerabilityThe dynamics of agriculture

Year + 0,65Winter - 2,09Spring + 0,74Summer + 1,83Autumn +1,86

Year + 0,44Winter + 0,28Spring + 0,53Summer + 0,42Autumn +0,54

Average speed of changes (trend) of temperature for January (º С/10 year) 1976 по 2010

Average speed of changes (trend) of precipitation in Spring - (mm/10 years) 1976 - 2010

expansion of cultivated increase of dangerousarea and increasing events (severe droughts,lands suitable for forest fires, etc.)agriculture increase of anomaliesincreasing favorable increase of aridity for aridperiod for vegetation areas (south of Russia, south of Siberia)increase of warm supply lack of water resourcesimproving of wintering degradation of soil fertilityfor crops 9

Decade Total Population Rural Population Urban Population Growth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate1960-1969 0.87 -0.95 2.451970-1979 0.58 -1.38 1.771980-1989 0.64 -0.71 1.241990-1999 -0.01 0.14 -0.062000-2009 -0.34 -0.32 -0.35

2008 2009 2010For all socio-demographic groups 185.1 162.7 187.4For specific socio-demographic groups - working-age population 200.4 175.9 202.2 - pensioners 146.9 129.4 148.9 - children 176.9 155.6 180.8Ratio of per capita incomes to minimum cost of living,percent 325.3 326.8 326.2

80007000600050004000300020001000 0 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Vegetable oils Sunflower Soybean Rape

120 106,9 108,2 100 99,1 97,1 89,1 88,6 85,2 86,6 77,8 81,3 78,1 78,2 81,5 80 63,4 69,3 65,5 67,2 60,9 60 54,7 47,9 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All GCMs demonstrate the increase intemperature for all parts of Russia (realistic!)

All models demonstrate the increase inprecipitation for most parts of Russia (realistic!)

Period of scenario implementation, years Region 30-40 60-70 90-100 30-40 60-70 90-100 Feed Crops Grain CropsNorth 22 32 31 26 24 13North-West 21 24 30 22 12 22Kaliningrad 22 22 20 34 25 29Central 19 24 17 27 25 13Volgo-Vyatka 21 30 19 20 26 11Black Soil Center 20 24 7 15 15 -7Volga River, North 24 30 8 16 19 -10Volga River, South 5 14 1 7 30 20Northern Caucasus 2 3 -7 -6 -7 -13Urals 14 28 17 11 16 -7Siberia, West 6 19 1 -7 -1 -23Siberia, East 0 0 -4 -12 -18 -24Far east 6 13 7 10 12 5Russia 13 21 11 11 14 -1Changes of yield in percentage of current level

GDP Per Capita Scenarios

Production YieldArea Net Exports

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 1994 1995 1996 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1998 2000 1999 1993 1990 1991 1992-1000 Energy Industrial and Manufacturing Use of solvents and other products Agriculture Land use change and forestry Wastes

Resource saving technologiesNew varieties of cropsWinter cropsForestationIrrigationSpecial government policy (insurance programs,safety net programs, support ag. research,etc.) 25

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Sergey Kiselev — Russia’s Food Security and Climate Change

by Climate Change @ The International Food Policy Research Institute on Jan 06, 2012

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