Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Ren Xiaona — The impact of climate change on china’s grain trade
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Ren Xiaona — The impact of climate change on china’s grain trade

254

Published on

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security …

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
254
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Ren Xiaona & Sun DongSheng Presented by:Ren Xiaona Zhaorenxiaona@126.com秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 2. ☞ Outline of the Presentation 1 Introduction 2 The basic condition of China’s grain trade 3 The Gravity Model of Grain Trade 4 Results and Analysis 5 Conclusion 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 3. Introduction DefinitionClimate change-------The Article 1 of "Framework Conventionon Climate Change” The composition of Earths atmosphere altered because of directly or indirectly human activity, other than natural climate variability observed in similar period.Carbon dioxide emissions "Carbon hood" 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 4. Introduction DefinitionThe grain------ definition by FAO Mainly refers to wheat, coarse food grain and rice threecategories.Grain, wheat, rice and maize production account for more thantwo-thirds of total grain output.Grain mentioned in this article mainly refers to wheat, rice and maize. 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 5. Introduction Background Climate change and its impacts and research lead to more and more countries and peoples attention. Less study on social economy and trade grain trade has played an important role at different times.So, it is necessary and meaningful to study the climate change impact on China’s grain trade. 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 6. The basic condition of China’s grain trade Grain trade scale Mainly import- oriented.1961-2008 Chinas grain imports and exports 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 7. The basic condition of China’s grain trade Grain trade structure China’s grain imports were wheat and maize, rice self-sufficiency. Before 2010, China is a net exporter of maize. In 2010, China became a net importer of maize at the first time,import and maize deficit reached 1.445 million tons. 60.00% 53.89% 50.00% 46.58% Grain imports 43.05% 40.00% account for the total 30.00% import volume from 20.00% the United States, 10.00% Argentina and Brazil. 0.00% 2006 1 2007 2 2008 3 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 8. The basic condition of China’s grain trade Grain trade structure Chinas exports are mainly wheat and maize, a small amount of rice. mainly export to South Korea, Indonesia and Japan. Maize was Chinas main grain export variety beforeexport 2010. From 2003 to 2009, maize total export accounts for 99.3% of maize trade volume. But in 2010, maize imports reached 1,572,100 tons, exports only 127,200 tons, and Imports up to 92.5%. 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 9. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade model construction β Model : Tij = β 0 (GDPi GDPj ) / Dij μ 0 National National Correlation Error访谈结果与析 Economic Trade The distance parameter of Two Volume al Scale Countries’ CapitalTij GDP Dij β0 μ0 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 10. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade Modified Gravity ModelModel of lnTi = α0 +α1 lnGDP+α2 lnGDP +α3 ln POP +α4 lnGY +α5 lnTEMj + i j j iImport : lnCO2 +α lnCO2 +α lnGY +α ln DIS +α POLICY μ α + 6 j 7 i 8 j 9 ij 10 i Equation(2)Model of lnTe = β0 + β1 lnGDP + β2 lnGDP + β3 ln POP + β4 lnGY + β5 lnTEMj + e j j e访谈结果与析lnCO2 + β lnCO2 + β lnGY + β ln DIS + β POLICY+ δExport : β 6 j 7 e 8 j 9 ej 10 e Equation(3) 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 11. The Gravity Model of Grain TradeVariablesMeaning访谈结果与析 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 12. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade Data sources China’s grain import countries : United States, Argentina, Canada, Australia, and France. Chinas grain export countries: Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries grain trade with China accounted for more than 85%. So it had more fully convincing. 访谈结果与析 grain output and grain trade volumes FAOData from 1986 to 2008 carbon dioxide emission WB-D Madison GDP and population website 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 13. Result and Analysis 4 STATA11 software Data processing by panel data analysis. , R2 = 0.6084 , model fitness better ln GYi removed further analysis POLICY ln GY j访谈结果与析 ln POPj 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 14. Result and Analysis4 China grain import analysis The variables pass the t-test. Model fitness better 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 15. Result and Analysis 4 China grain export analysis , R2 = 0.3064 Model fitness better ln CO2 e Removed further analysis POLICY访谈结果与析 ln DIS ej 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 16. Result and Analysis4 China grain export analysis The variables pass the t-test. Model fitness better 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 17. Result and Analysis4 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 18. Result and Analysis4 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 19. conclusion5 1 2 秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正
  • 20. THANKS!秋记与你分享 静思笃行 持中秉正

×