Nono Rusono — Indonesian Food Security and Climate Change

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS INDONESIAN FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE : LOOKING INTO THE FUTURES NONO RUSONO & SETYAWATI Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security 6-8 November 2011, Beijing China 1

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS OUTLINE 1. Indonesian Development 2. Agriculture Overview 3. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture 4. Indonesia’s Policies on Climate Change 2

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT BAPPENAS o Land area : 1.9 million km2 , Marine area : 5.8 million km2 o Population : 239 millions in 2010, with growth rate +1% o 58 percent people live in rural areas o Population density was 125 per people per km2 in 2007

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT BAPPENAS Realized 2010 Realized 2011 Projection 2012 Projection 2013 Projection 2014 Economic growth 6,1% 6,4 % 6,5%-6,9% 6,7%-7,4% 7,0%-7,7% Unemployment 7,1% 7,0 % 6,4%-6,6% 6,0%-6,6% 5%-6% Poverty (National 13,3% 12,5% 10,5%-11.5% 9,5%-10,5% 8%-10% Poverty Line) Source: Medium Term Development Plan Poverty (percent below US$2 per day)

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW  Agriculture sector has a vital role in Indonesia’s development in economic, social and environmental aspects  In 2010, agriculture (including forestry and fisheries) contributed 13.2 percent of  GDP contribution of agriculture to GDP tends to decline  Agriculture sector also has contributed to national exports, primarily through the export of palm oil, cocoa, coffee, and coconuts  43 million people employed in agricultural sector  Agricultural land-use has a function in maintaining our life-support system

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP from agriculture Agriculture sector’s GDP, 2004-2010 (%) Fisheries, 15.8 Forestry, 6.2 Food crop, Livestock, 49.7 12,6 Tree crop, 15.7 Food crop contributes almost 50 percent to agricultural GDP. Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2009) Source: BPS 6

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ CONDITION AND CHALLENGES BAPPENAS CHALLENGES 1. Increasing number of population 2. World price  fluctuation 2010 TARGET 2011 3. Climate change  decreased food COMPONENT REALIZATI TARGET production ON 4. Land conversion/Land use Main Food Production change, degradation, condition of • Paddy (million ton) 66,9 66,4 70,6 agricultural infrastructure • Maize (million ton) 19,8 18,40 22,00 5. Import (maize, soybean, meat, • Soybean (million ton) 1.300 908,1 1.600 sugar, wheat, milk) • Sugar (million ton) 3,0 2,7 3,9 • Beef (thousand ton) 412 435,2 439 • Fisheries (million ton) 10,83 12,26 • FOOD SECURITY AS ONE OF GDP growth (%) 3,6-3,7 2,9 3,7 NATIONAL PRIORITIES Source: Annual Government Work Plan • INCREASING FOOD PRODUCTION TO MEET DEMAND 7

Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010) KEMENTERIAN PPN/ AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES BAPPENAS Harvest area of leading agricultural commodities, average of 2006-2008 Area Ran Crop % of total harvested k (000 hectares) 1 Rice, paddy 34.50% 12,081 2 Oil palm fruit 13.00% 4,550 3 Maize 10.50% 3,660 Consumption of leading food commodities, 4 Coconuts 8.10% 2,833 average of 2003-2006 5 Natural rubber 8.00% 2,800 Food 6 Cassava 3.40% 1,207 Rank Crop % of total consumption 7 Coffee, green 2.80% 976 (000 mt) 8 Cocoa beans 2.70% 940 1 Rice (Milled Eq.) 30.70% 27,889 9 Groundnuts, with shell 1.90% 668 2 Cassava 10.00% 9,056 10 Soybeans 1.60% 544 3 Vegetables, Other 7.10% 6,469 Total 100.00% 35,021 4 Fruits, Other 6.90% 6,255 5 Maize 6.60% 6,044 Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010) 6 Coconuts - Incl Copra 6.00% 5,466 7 Wheat 4.80% 4,340 8 Bananas 4.70% 4,233 9 Sugar (Raw Eq) 3.70% 3,355 8 Total 100.00% 90,893

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS 3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 9

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS SCENARIOS The IMPACT model Category Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic GDP, constant Lowest of the four GDP growth Based on rates from World Highest of the four GDP 2000 US$ rate scenarios from the Bank EACC study (Margulis growth rates from the Millennium Ecosystem 2010), updated for Sub- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment GDP scenarios Saharan Africa and South Assessment GDP (Millennium Ecosystem Asian countries scenarios and the rate Assessment 2005)and the rate used in the baseline used in the baseline (next (previous column) column) Population UN High variant, 2008 revision UN medium variant, 2008 UN low variant, 2008 revision revision Climate model the CSIRO and the MIROC GCMs with the A1B and the B1 scenarios 10

Changes in Precipitation under Climate Model

Changes in Annual Maximum Temperature under Climate Model 12

Production Yield Area Net export PriceIFPRI’S calculation

SCENARIO OUTCOMES FOR MAIZE Production Yield Area Net export PriceIFPRI’S calculation

Production Yield Area Net export PriceIFPRI’S calculation

Production Yield AreaNet export Price IFPRI’s calculation

SCENARIO OUTCOMES ON HUMAN BEINGKEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS INDICATORS Average daily kilocalories availability Number of malnourished children (kilocalories per person per day) under 5 years of age Source: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011 19

IFPRI’s calculation 20

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS 4. INDONESIA’S POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE 21http:// www.triplepundit.com

Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011) KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS GHG Emission in Indonesia  Climate change is give impacts on agriculture, agricultural sector also contributes to the increase of GHG emission  The current GHG emissions are dominated by land-use change emissions, including forest degradation and peat fires  Contribute to Emission from Land Use Change : Forest fires/deforestation, Agriculture (Especially estate crops), Ex: Oil Palm and sugar; Livestock Source : WRI, 2011 22

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ National Policies on Climate Change BAPPENAS THERE IS A NEED TO FILL THE GAP AND TO CALL FOR SECTORAL POLICY INTEGRATION Mainstreaming Climate Change into Medium Term Development Planning Formulate Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR) Formulate NAP GHG emission reduction (RAN GRK). Established ICCTF to coordinate international support on Indonesia’s climate change policy and program. Adaptation Policies (on progress) 23

The Overall FrameworkKEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS 1. Indonesia Climate Change Nine Sectors of Climate Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR) will support the GOI’s Change Roadmap : development vision related to climate change for the next 20 years Mitigation Adaptation • Energy • Agriculture • Forestry • Marine and Fishery • Industry • Water Resources • Transportation • Health 2. The implementation of • Waste Management the Roadmap will be through National Development Plan: period 2010 – 2014. Process : 3. RAN GRK elaborates Indonesia’s commitment to reduce carbon Sectoral Local (RAD emission by 26 percent RAN GRK from business as usual by Plan GRK) 2020 24

The National Action Plan ofKEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS GHG emission reduction (RAN GRK) GRK) 1. Allocate reduction of emission in 5 main sectors by 2020 Reduction Target (Gton CO2e) Sector 26% 41% Forestry and Peatland 0.672 1.039 Agriculture 0.008 0.011 Energy and Transportation 0.036 0.056 Industry 0.001 0.005 Waste 0.048 0.078 Total 0.767 1.189 2. Identification of sectoral program and estimation of government budget 25

Mitigation and Adaptation Actions forKEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS Emission Reduction MITIGATION o Introducing new crop varieties with low emission. This includes increasing research and technology to develop the varieties. o Prevent land burning o Improving fertilizer application techniques to reduce emission, such as utilizing organic fertilizer o Improving crop land management to increase soil carbon storage ADAPTATION o Increasing the production and productivity of main food and promoting diversification on commodity consumption. o Developing new varieties that resist to a range of environment such as drought and heat o Developing adaptive agriculture technology, including developing soil management technology o Improving water management including irrigation system to reduce water usage and water leakage, Improving management of crop residue o Building farmers and authorities capacity o Developing crop weather insurance for farmers to increase farmer’s resilience from climate change effects 26

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS CONCLUSION o Based on the analysis, climate change puts stresses on agricultural state and effect food security. The results show that Indonesia’s crop yield, production and prices will be affected. o Adaptation and mitigation policy recommendation: o Promote integration and coordination among stakeholders to consistently implement the national climate change policies. o Build synergies of mitigation and adaptation measures into sustainable development plans. o Increase research, technology, infrastructure investment on agriculture to meet the future demand and maintain food security. o Build human resources capacity to deal with climate change. 27

KEMENTERIAN PPN/ BAPPENAS THANK YOU 28

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Nono Rusono — Indonesian Food Security and Climate Change

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