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Elisio Contini — Brazil's Food Security and Climate Change

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security …

The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.


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  • 1. Climate Change and Food Security: Brazil Elisio Contini & Geraldo B. Martha, Jr. International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, 6-8 Nov 2011, CAAS/IFPRI, Beijing, China
  • 2. Outline• Recent agricultural development;• Potential impact of climate change on agricultural production;• Some policies alternatives to mitigate carbon emissions;
  • 3. Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil RECENT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
  • 4. Overview Brazilian Ag before the 1970’s Low Ag production and low yields; Production concentrated in South/Southeast;MAPA (2010). Food supply crisis; Rural poverty; Lack of specific knowledge on Tropical Agriculture; Institutional void (ag research, education, markets, media governmental agencies, etc.).M.Lopes (2011). The task: to move from trad. ag to one based on science & technology
  • 5. TFP in Brazilian Agriculture, 1970 - 2006 Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224Land 100 135 162 196 230 324productivityLabor 100 129 158 185 241 348productivitySource: Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).
  • 6. Production (million tons) and area (million ha) 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 0.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00Source: after Conab. 1976/77 1977/78 1,258 37.32 1978/79 1979/80 Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 + 240% 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 Production (million tons) 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 + 32% 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 Area (million ha) 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 + 157% 2005/06 2006/07 Yield (kg/ha) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 49.25 3,239 159.51 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Yield (kg/ha) Grains and Oilseed Production, Area and Yield (1976 – 2011)
  • 7. Factors of Growth in Beef Production (1950 – 2006) Beef Production 3.36% Pasture Area X Animal Productivity ~ 21% ~ 79% Animal  performance X Stocking rates Land‐saving effect:  525 M ha ~ 38% ~ 62%G.B. Martha Jr., E.Alves, E.Contini (2011).
  • 8. Area with Human Activities (Probio, 2007) 90% of the Amazon Biome and  61 % of the Cerrado Biome is  still covered by the original  vegetation ! Natural Cerrado Water body Crops Cultivated  pastures Urban areas Reforestation Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008
  • 9. Brazilian Agriculture: Some Projections (2010/2019) 42% 37.5% 35% Growth in agricultural production (%) 27.5% 28% 26.6% 23.0% 21.4% 21% 14% 10.7% 11.0% 9.5% 7% 4.2% 0% UE27 Canadá EUA Austrália Índia China Rússia Ucrânia BrasilOECD/FAO (2010).
  • 10. Evolution of Agriculture in BrazilPOTENCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
  • 11. Projected TemperaturesPinto & Assad (2008).
  • 12. Variation (%) in Potential CroplandPinto & Assad (2008).
  • 13. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Area Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
  • 14. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean ProductionSource: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
  • 15. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Yield Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
  • 16. Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Net Trade Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.
  • 17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Economy A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario Agriculture Industry Services GDPSource: Haddad et al. (2010).
  • 18. Evolution of Agriculture in BrazilSOME POLICIES ALTERNATIVES TO MITIGATE CARBON EMISSIONS
  • 19. Brazilian Climate Change Law
  • 20. Projected GHG Emissions in Brazil in 2020 3.500 Energy Agriculture Land-use Industry+Residues 3.000 1515 2187 92 2704 1728 1652 2.500 114 36% 39% 2.000 1.084M t CO2-e 84 82 86 1.500 415 1.329 415 627 1.000 883 494 461 500 416 901 329 735 694 217 329 0 1994 2005 2020 2020(I) 2020(II) Data from MCT (2011), G.B. Martha elaboration.
  • 21. Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies Mitigation• potential to mitigate emissions;• associated benefits that increase agricultural yield and resilience; Adaptation • high‐priority to mitigate actions that have strong  adaptation benefits;
  • 22. ABC Program Action Total area Projected GHG emission Total cost (M ha) reduction (M t CO2‐e/yr.) (R$ billion) No‐till planting 8 16 a 20 2,40 Biological N fixation 5,5 16 a 20 0,30 Recovery of degraded pastures 15 83 a 104 19,65 Integrated crop‐livestock systems 4 18 a 22 34,20Agricultural and Livestock Plan 2011/2012 (ABC Program)• Available resources R$ 3.15 billion;• Limit: up to R$ 1 million per farmer;• Threshold for a period up to 8 years; deadline for paying for a period up to 15 years;• Interest rate 5.5% per year; Source: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA).
  • 23. Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems AlternativesMay Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
  • 24. Adaptation of Crop Varieties 2005 19751960 Evolution and expansion of soybean in Brazil
  • 25. Concluding Remarks• The experience of Brazil’s agricultural transformation is proof that itis possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in thetropics;• The development of Brazilian agricultural was predominantly basedon productivity gains;• There are clear opportunities to expand food, biofuels and fiberproduction in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoralsystems will be of central importance;• Projected effects of climate change in Brazil are still uncertain.