Welcome  Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now and Then
AgendaDashboardSpeakersQ&AFollow‐Up
Ray Bollman, PhD•   Previous Chief of the Rural Research Group     in Statistics Canada•   Rural and Small Town Canada Ana...
Saskatchewan    rural demographic update                     to 2011          Webinar presented to theSaskatchewan Economi...
Saskatchewan rural demographic                   update to 2011An update of:Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson. (200...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography   ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateTake home messages:1. Rural Canada is growing     not everywhere              e.g. ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateTake home messages:Rural Canada is growingRecall the first ``Rural and Small Town Can...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography   ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateCensus rural areas and population centresCensus rural areas have with fewer than 1,00...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update    Within census rural areas, population densities and living conditions can vary gr...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography   ...
Larger urban centres (LUCs) are Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and CensusAgglomerations (CAs):       Census Metropolitan...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateOECD Regional Typology is designed to classify Territorial Level 3 (TL3) geographic u...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                          The population, 15 years of age and over, r...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in                                               rural and small town a...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                       In 2011, the total population in              ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                  Canadas predominantly rural population grew        ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                            In 2011, 28% of Canadas population was residing          ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                              In predominantly rural regions,        ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                       Rural minority in Canada after 192130        P...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                           Population trends: Rural minority in      ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                      The census rural population has grown in all   ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                        The census rural population grew in the      ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 First growth in census rural population             ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 19...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                   Nunavut and Prince Edward Island have more than 50...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateDistribution of census rural population by province, 2006                            ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                 In 2011, Canadas rural and small town population was 6 million      ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                In 2011, 6 million individuals were l...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                               Rural and Small Town P...
Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) in Rural and Small Town Saskatchewan, 2006                                            ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                            In 2011, Saskatchewans rural and small to...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                          CMAs grew more than CAs -- ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                 The CMAs (Saskatoon ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                 The CMAs (Saskatoon ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                  The CMAs (Saskatoon...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                   The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) gr...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                           The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew more ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                       Growth in RST & CA population for the first ti...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                        In 2011, 18 p...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                         Share of population in rural and small town ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                  In 2011, 39 percent...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                  The share of Canadas population residing in RST are...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                 Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography  ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                       Growing population in predominantly rural regi...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                       Predominantly rural population remains in the ...
54
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                       In 2011, the share of populati...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                          Declining share of total population in pred...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                         Percent of population residing in           ...
Saskatchewan rural demographic updateThe next set of charts show the annual data foreach census division in Saskatchewan.T...
Saskatchewan rural demographic update                                                                                     ...
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then

1,652

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology, Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,652
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then

  1. 1. Welcome Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now and Then
  2. 2. AgendaDashboardSpeakersQ&AFollow‐Up
  3. 3. Ray Bollman, PhD• Previous Chief of the Rural Research Group  in Statistics Canada• Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin
  4. 4. Saskatchewan rural demographic update to 2011 Webinar presented to theSaskatchewan Economic Development Association Wednesday, April 18, 2012 Ray D. Bollman Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 613-297-58261
  5. 5. Saskatchewan rural demographic update to 2011An update of:Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) “Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography: AnUpdate to 2006.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 7, No. 7 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada,Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)Bollman, Ray D et Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) « Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada: Mise à jour jusquen 2006 » Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 7, no7(Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=fra)Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson (2008) Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography:An Update to 2006 with Provincial Detail (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Agriculture and Rural Working PaperNo. 90, Catalogue no. 21-601-MIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpub/listpub.cgi?catno=21-601-MIE).Bollman, Ray D. Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada: Mise à jour jusqu’en 2006 incluant les données détaillées par province (Ottawa: Statistique Canada,Documents de travail sur l’agriculture et le milieu rural No 90, No 21-601-MIF au catalogue). (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpub/listpub_f.cgi?catno=21-601-MIF) 2
  6. 6. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 3
  7. 7. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateTake home messages:1. Rural Canada is growing  not everywhere  e.g. rural Saskatchewan declined in every inter-censal period from 1951 to 2006 but grew from 2006 to 2011  For Canada as a whole, the rural population is growing  The rural share of total population is declining because  Urban is growing faster; and due to  Successful rural development • At each census, some rural areas have grown and are re- classified as urban. • Sometimes the re-classification is greater than the growth and thus we sometimes see fewer rural people at the end of the period, compared to the number at the beginning of the period.2. Rural Canada is:• growing near cities• growing less or declining away from cities• some remote areas are growing due to higher Aboriginal birth rates 4and / or resource development.
  8. 8. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateTake home messages:Rural Canada is growingRecall the first ``Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin``:Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Rural and Small Town Population is Growing in the 1990s.”Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 1, No. 1 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) .(www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Croissance démographique observée dans les régions rurales etles petites villes dans les années 90.” Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 1, no4 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm).Also see:Beshiri, Roland and Ray D. Bollman. (2001) “Population Structure and Change in Predominantly Rural Regions.” Rural and Small Town CanadaAnalysis Bulletin Vol. 2, No. 2 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE). (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).Beshiri, Roland and Ray D. Bollman. (2001) “Structure démographique et variation de la population dans les régions essentiellement rurales.” Bulletind’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 2, no 2 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue)(www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm).Mwansa, Pius and Ray D. Bollman. (2005) “Community demographic trends within their regional context.” Rural and Small Town Canada AnalysisBulletin Vol. 6, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).Mwansa, Pius and Ray D. Bollman. (2005) “Les tendances démographiques des communautés dans leur contexte régional.” Bulletin d’analyse:Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 1, no 5 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue)(www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm). 5
  9. 9. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 6
  10. 10. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateCensus rural areas and population centresCensus rural areas have with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people persquare kilometre. The terminology for all other areas has changed starting with the 2011 census.Statistics Canada has defined census urban areas using the same methodology based on population sizeand density since the 1971 Census. An census urban area was defined as having a population of at least1,000 and a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre.Starting with the 2011 Census, the term population centre replaces the term ‘census urban area.Population centres are classified into one of three population size groups: • small population centres, with a population of between 1,000 and 29,999 • medium population centres, with a population of between 30,000 and 99,999 • large urban population centres, consisting of a population of 100,000 and over.A population centre is defined as an area with a population of at least 1,000 and a density of 400 or morepeople per square kilometre. All areas outside population centres continue to be defined as census ruralareas. Taken together, population centres and census rural areas cover all of Canada.Users of the former census urban area concept will be able to continue with their longitudinal analysis usingpopulation centres.For more information, please see the note titled From urban areas to population centres, available on theStatistics Canada website, which explains the new terminology and classification of population centres. 7
  11. 11. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Within census rural areas, population densities and living conditions can vary greatly. Included in census rural areas are: . . . small towns, villages and other populated places with less than 1,000 population according to the current census; . . . rural fringes of census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations that may contain estate lots, as well as agricultural, undeveloped and non-developable lands ; . . . agricultural lands; . . . remote and wilderness areas. Note that both population centres and census rural areas may exist within each of the “higher” geographical groups. Thus, population centres and census rural areas may be used as variables to cross-classify census data within any standard geographic areas such as census subdivisions, census divisions, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations or census Metropolitan area and census agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ).8
  12. 12. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 9
  13. 13. Larger urban centres (LUCs) are Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and CensusAgglomerations (CAs): Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a built-up core population of 50,000 or more with a total population of 100,000 or more (prior to 2006, the built-up core threshold was 100,000). Census Agglomerations (CAs) have a built-up core population of 10,000 or more with a total population of less than 100,000 (prior to 2006, a few CAs had a total population over 100,000 if they had less than 100,000 in the built-up core – due to the different definition of a CMA prior to 2006).Both CMAs and CAs include the total population of neighbouring census subdivisions (CSDs) (i.e., incorporated towns andmunicipalities) where more than 50% of the employed residents commute (i.e. a measure of social-economic integration) to the built-upcore of a specific CMA or CA. More details of the delineation are available from Statistics Canada (2007). {Statistics Canada. (2007)2006 Census Dictionary (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 92-566)}(http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/reference/dictionary/index.cfm)}Rural and small town (RST) areas refer to non-CMA/CA areas. RST areas are dividedinto five types of zones based on the degree of influence (i.e., commuting) to any LUC.These zones are Census Metropolitan and Census Agglomerated Influenced Zones (MIZs) (Statistics Canada,2007). They are defined as follows:… Strong MIZ includes CSDs where at least 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA;... Moderate MIZ includes CSDs where 5% to less than 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA orCA;… Weak MIZ includes CSDs where more than zero but less than 5% of the employed residents commute to anyCMA or CA;… No MIZ includes CSDs where none of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA (or the number ofemployed residents is less than 40); and… RST Territories refers to the non-CMA/CA parts of the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut (i.e. theareas outside the CAs of Whitehorse and Yellowknife).{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada AnalysisBulletin Vol. 3, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)} 10
  14. 14. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 11
  15. 15. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateOECD Regional Typology is designed to classify Territorial Level 3 (TL3) geographic unitsaccording their degree of rurality. In each country, TL1 refers to the national level, TL2 refers to the provincelevel (in Canada or, for example, the state level in Australia or the United States) and TL3 refers to a subprovincialgeographic grid. In Canada, TL3 units are census divisions.Predominantly urban regions are census divisions where less than 15% of the population livesin an OECD rural community.Intermediate regions are census divisions where between 15% and 50% of the population livesin an OECD rural community.Predominantly rural regions are census divisions where more than 50% of the population livesin an OECD rural community. Predominantly rural regions are further classified to recognize diversityamong the rural regions. Rural metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are adjacent to metropolitan centres. Rural non-metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are not adjacent to metropolitan centres. Rural northern regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are classified as “northern” when Beale Codes were assigned to Canadian census divisions. For details, see du Plessis et al. (2001). The 10 Beale Codes were designed for use in the USA. However, they did not include anything like Canada’s north so an eleventh code was added. This extra code includes census divisions that are found entirely, or a majority, above the following lines of parallel in each province: Newfoundland, 50th; Quebec and Ontario, 49th; Manitoba, 53rd; and Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia, 54th. As well, rural northern regions include all of the Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories. A map is available as Map B3 in Appendix B of the working paper by du Plessis et al. (2001). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/21-601-m/21-601-m2002061- eng.htm OECD rural communities: are census consolidated subdivisions (CCSs) with a population density less than 150persons per km2.{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 3, No. 3(Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)} 12
  16. 16. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 13
  17. 17. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in census rural areas increased 4.2% from 4.7 million in May, 2006 to 4.9 million in May, 2011, Canada5.1 Population 15 years of age and over residing in census rural areas (million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)5.04.94.84.74.6 Jun2011 Oct2011 Feb2010 Jun2010 Oct2010 Feb2011 Feb2009 Jun2009 Oct2009 Feb2008 Jun2008 Oct2008 Feb2007 Jun2007 Oct2007 Feb2006 Jun2006 Oct2006 Dec2011 Dec2010 Dec2009 Apr2011 Aug2011 Dec2008 Apr2010 Aug2010 Dec2007 Apr2009 Aug2009 Dec2006 Apr2008 Aug2008 Apr2007 Aug2007 Apr2006 Aug2006 Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118. 14
  18. 18. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 15
  19. 19. The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in rural and small town areas increased 4.4% from 4.63 million in May, 2006 to 4.84 million in May, 2011, Canada4.9 Population 15 years of age and over residing in rural and small town areas (million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)4.84.74.64.5 Feb2006 Jun2006 Oct2006 Feb2007 Jun2007 Oct2007 Feb2008 Jun2008 Oct2008 Feb2009 Jun2009 Oct2009 Feb2010 Jun2010 Oct2010 Feb2011 Jun2011 Oct2011 Apr2006 Apr2007 Apr2008 Apr2009 Apr2010 Apr2011 Aug2006 Aug2007 Aug2008 Aug2009 Aug2010 Aug2011 Dec2006 Dec2007 Dec2008 Dec2009 Dec2010 Dec2011 Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118. 16
  20. 20. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 17
  21. 21. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, the total population in predominantly rural regions was 9.6 million20,000,000 Total population Predominantly18,000,000 urban regions16,000,000 Intermediate regions14,000,000 Predominantly12,000,000 Up 2.1% from 2006 rural regions (subtotal)10,000,000 Rural metro- 8,000,000 adjacent regions 6,000,000 Rural non- metro-adjacent 4,000,000 regions Rural northern 2,000,000 regions 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052. 18
  22. 22. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Canadas predominantly rural population grew in each year from 1996 to 2011 Percent change in2.0 total population1.8 Predominantly1.6 urban regions1.41.2 Intermediate1.0 regions0.80.60.4 Predominantly rural regions0.20.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052. 19
  23. 23. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, 28% of Canadas population was residing in predominantly rural regions Percent distribution of total population 100% 90% Predominantly 80% urban regions 70% 60% 50% Intermediate regions 40% 30% 20% Predominantly rural regions 10% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052. 21
  24. 24. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In predominantly rural regions, the number of immigrant arrivals per 100 inhabitants has constantly increased from 2002-03 to 2010-111.6 Immigrant arrivals per 100 inhabitants1.4 Predominantly urban regions1.21.00.8 Intermediate regions0.60.4 Predominantly0.2 rural regions0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0053. 22
  25. 25. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 24
  26. 26. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Rural minority in Canada after 192130 Population (millions) Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)25 Census rural areas (outside population centres)20151050 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Note: Census rural areas have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people per square kilometre.Population centres have a population of 1,000 or more and a population density of 400 or more inhabitants per square kilomeetre.Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 to 2011. 25
  27. 27. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Population trends: Rural minority in Saskatchewan in 1971800,000 Population700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000 Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants)100,000 Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants) 0 1901 1911 1921 1931Source: Statiatics Canada. Census of Population, 1901 - 2011. 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 26
  28. 28. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The census rural population has grown in all but two decades since 1851, Canada Census rural areas Population centres (1,000+ residents)40 10-year percent change in total population302010 0-10-20 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 - 2011. 27
  29. 29. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The census rural population grew in the 1950s, 1970s, 1980s and 2001 to 2011 40 Five-year percent change in total population 30 Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants) Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants) 20 10 0-10-20 1951 to 1956 to 1961 to 1966 to 1971 to 1976 to 1981 to 1986 to 1991 to 1996 to 2001 to 2006 to 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Note: Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. Thus, the reported change is due to population growth or decline plus the net impact of the re-classification of population between population centres and census rural aeras.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 to 2011. 28
  30. 30. Saskatchewan rural demographic update First growth in census rural population since 1951: Saskatchewan40 Five-year percent change in total population Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants)30 Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)2010 0-10-20 1951 to 1956 to 1961 to 1966 to 1971 to 1976 to 1981 to 1986 to 1991 to 1996 to 2001 to 2006 to 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 - 2011. 29
  31. 31. Saskatchewan rural demographic update 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 to to to to to to to to to to to to 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 5-year percent change in population in census rural areasNewfoundland and Labrador 11 -2 0 -2 3 2 -0 13 -10 -9 -2 -2Prince Edward Island -7 3 -3 0 8 5 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -0Nova Scotia -1 14 -6 8 7 4 6 4 -2 -3 1 -2New Brunswick -0 7 -5 -10 18 6 5 5 -0 -4 -1 -0Quebec 2 -3 -7 -7 12 11 -0 7 -0 -8 5 3Ontario -3 8 -3 -1 14 1 3 12 -2 -3 4 -0Manitoba 1 -2 -5 -5 2 -4 0 3 3 0 4 2Saskatchewan -4 -6 -8 -11 -6 -1 -4 -6 -1 -4 -3 1Alberta -1 0 -7 -5 6 11 -4 5 8 3 4 4British Columbia 0 20 4 14 7 6 -1 7 4 -10 1 1Yukon 48 -0 -21 -5 19 -2 -0 38 7 -4 4 9Northwest Territories & Nunavut 11 -5 22 5 19 11 18 30 1 -9 1 -1Canada -0 3 -5 -2 9 5 1 7 -0 -4 3 1Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 to 2011. 30
  32. 32. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Nunavut and Prince Edward Island have more than 50% of their population living in census rural areas Prince Edward Island Nunavut New Brunswick Nova Scotia Northwest TerritoriesNewfoundland and Labrador Yukon Saskatchewan Manitoba CANADA Quebec Alberta Ontario British Columbia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent of total population living in census rural areas, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2011. (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants) 31
  33. 33. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateDistribution of census rural population by province, 2006 Percent of Provincial census Population in population rural population Year when census Total census rural residing in as a percent of rural population population areas in census Canadas census became a minority in 2011 2011 rural areas rural population in in 2011 2011Newfoundland and Labrador 1961 514,536 208,970 41 3.3Prince Edward Island still a majority 140,204 74,661 53 1.2Nova Scotia 1951 921,727 400,389 43 6.3New Brunswick 1966 to 1981 & 2006 751,171 356,692 47 5.6Quebec 1911 7,903,001 1,534,731 19 24.2Ontario 1911 12,851,821 1,806,036 14 28.5Manitoba 1951 1,208,268 333,554 28 5.3Saskatchewan 1971 1,033,381 343,398 33 5.4Alberta 1956 3,645,257 614,855 17 9.7British Columbia 1931 4,400,057 609,363 14 9.6Yukon 1971 33,897 13,335 39 0.2Northwest Territories 2006 41,462 16,901 41 0.3Nunavut still a majority 31,906 16,529 52 0.3Canada 1931 33,476,688 6,329,414 19 100.0Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 2011. 32
  34. 34. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 33
  35. 35. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, Canadas rural and small town population was 6 million population (millions)3025 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011201510 5 0 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST areas Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ RST Territories Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce thatcommutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011. 34
  36. 36. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, 6 million individuals were living in rural and small town areas26 Population (millions)242220 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)1816141210 8 Rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas 6 4 2 Census Agglomerations (CAs) 0 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Note: In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have 50,000 or more inhabitants in the built- core with a total population of 100,000 or more and Census Agglomerations (CAs)have 10,000 or more in the built-up core. Both CMAs and CAs include surrounding towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to thebuilt-up core. Rural andsmall town (RST) refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs). The two data points for each year show the adjustedpopulation count (due to reclassification) in order to make comparisons over time within constant boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1966 to 2011. 35
  37. 37. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Rural and Small Town Population, Canada, 1966 to 2011 Population (millions)8.0 At each census, some rural areas have grown and then are re-classified as urban.7.5 Thus, the starting point for the RST population for each inter-censal period is lower than the end point for the7.0 previous inter-censal period.6.56.05.55.0 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1966 to 2011.Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs). 36
  38. 38. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) in Rural and Small Town Saskatchewan, 2006 using the Statistical Area Classification Rural and Small Town areas (showing Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ)) Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ Territories Larger Urban Centres Census Metropolitan Areas (urban core of 50,000 or more with a total population of 100,000 or more) Census Agglomerations (urban core of 10,000 to 49,999)Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2006. Map produced by the Remote Sensing and Geomatics Applications section (RSGA), Agriculture Division, Statistics Canada, 2008
  39. 39. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, Saskatchewans rural and small town population was 404 thousand population700600 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011500400300200100 0 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST areas Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ RST Territories Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce thatcommutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011. 38
  40. 40. Saskatchewan rural demographic update CMAs grew more than CAs -- rural areas with stronger metropolitan influence grew more (except for the influence of Aboriginal population growth in the RST territories) Percent change in total10 population, 2006 to 2011 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories Larger urban centres Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes allneighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in thebuilt-up core and includes all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones(MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderatemetropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011. 39
  41. 41. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew and all other types of areas declined Saskatchewan, 1986 to 1991 Percent change in total10 population, 1986 to 1991 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories LargerLarger urban centres urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1986 to 1991. 40
  42. 42. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew and all other types of areas declined Saskatchewan, 1991 to 1996 Percent change in total10 population, 1991 to 1996 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories LargerLarger urban centres urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 1996. 41
  43. 43. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew and rural areas with Strong MIZ grew a bit Percent change in total Saskatchewan, 1996 to 200110 population, 1996 to 2001 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories LargerLarger urban centres urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1996 to 2001. 42
  44. 44. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew and rural areas with Strong MIZ grew a bit Saskatchewan, 2001 to 2006 Percent change in total10 population, 2001 to 2006 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories LargerLarger urban centres urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2001 to 2006. 43
  45. 45. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew more than the CAs, which grew more than the RST areas Percent change in total population, 2006 to 2011 Saskatchewan, 2006 to 201110 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories LargerLarger urban centres urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 2006 to 2011. 44
  46. 46. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Growth in RST & CA population for the first time since 1986, Saskatchewan Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) Census Agglomerations (CAs) Rural and Small Town (RST) areas 26 Percent change in population within constant boundaries1 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10-12 1966 to 1971 1971 to 1976 1976 to 1981 1981 to 1986 1986 to 1991 1991 to 1996 1996 to 2001 2001 to 2006 2006 to 20111 Each 5-year change is tabulated within the boundaries applicable to the census at the end of the 5-year period.Note: In 2006 and 2011, CMAs have a total population of 100,000 or more (with a built-up core of 50,000 or more) and they include neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% ormore of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. CAs have an urban core of 10,000 or more persons plus neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforcecommutes to the built-up core. RST areas are outside the commuting zones of CMAs and CAs.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011. 45
  47. 47. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, 18 percent of Canadas population lived in rural and small town areas100 Percent of total population90 1991 1996 2001 2006 20118070605040302010 0 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011. 46
  48. 48. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Share of population in rural and small town areas declined to 18% in 201140 Percent of Canadas population living in rural and small town areas353025201510 5 0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Note: Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs).Data are tabulated within the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011. 47
  49. 49. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, 39 percent of Saskatchewans population lived in rural and small town areas100 Percent of total population 90 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST areas MIZ Territories Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areasNote: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns andmunicipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouringtowns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforcethat commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; Nometropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011. 48
  50. 50. Saskatchewan rural demographic update The share of Canadas population residing in RST areas declined from 36% in 1971 to 19% in 2011 NunavutNorthwest Territories NewfoundlandPrince Edward Island 1971 Saskatchewan 1976 New Brunswick 1981 Nova Scotia 1986 Manitoba Yukon 1991 Quebec 1996 Alberta 2001 CANADA 2006 British Columbia 2011 Ontario 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of total population residing in rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areasSource: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1971 to 2011. 49
  51. 51. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Outline1. Three ways of following rural demography a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)2. What has the annual data been telling us? a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of Population a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas) b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas) c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)4. Summary 50
  52. 52. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Growing population in predominantly rural regions, Canada18 Total population (millions) Non-institutional population16 1981 1986 1991 1996 200114 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population12 1996 2001 2006 201110 8 6 4 2 0 Predominantly Intermediate All predominantly Rural metro- Rural non-metro- Rural northern urban regions regions rural regions adjacent regions adjacent regions regionsNote: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions 51
  53. 53. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Predominantly rural population remains in the majority, Saskatchewan, 1981 to 2011900,000 Total population Non-institutional population800,000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001700,000 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population 1996 2001 2006 2011600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000 0 Predominantly Intermediate All predominantly Rural metro- Rural non-metro- Rural northern urban regions regions rural regions adjacent regions adjacent regions regionsSource: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions 52
  54. 54. 54
  55. 55. Saskatchewan rural demographic update In 2011, the share of population in predominantly rural regions was 29%, Canada100 Percent distribution of total population Non-institutional population 90 80 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 70 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population 1996 2001 2006 2011 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Predominantly Intermediate All predominantly Rural metro- Rural non-metro- Rural northern urban regions regions rural regions adjacent regions adjacent regions regionsNote: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions 57
  56. 56. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Declining share of total population in predominantly rural regions, Saskatchewan, 1981 to 2011100 Percent distribution of total population Non-institutional population 90 80 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population 70 1996 2001 2006 2011 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Predominantly Intermediate All predominantly Rural metro- Rural non-metro- Rural northern urban regions regions rural regions adjacent regions adjacent regions regionsSource: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions 58
  57. 57. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Percent of population residing in predominantly rural regions 1996 2001 2006 2011Newfoundland and Labrador 54 53 51 49Prince Edward Island 100 100 100 100Nova Scotia 62 60 59 58New Brunswick 78 78 77 77Quebec 24 24 23 23Ontario 20 19 19 18Manitoba 44 44 45 45Saskatchewan 54 53 52 51Alberta 34 33 32 31British Columbia 42 41 40 39Yukon 100 100 100 100Northwest Territories 100 100 100 100Nunavut 100 100 100 100CANADA 31 30 30 29Source: Statistic Canada. Census of Population. 1996 to 2011. 59
  58. 58. Saskatchewan rural demographic updateThe next set of charts show the annual data foreach census division in Saskatchewan.The list of census divisions, on the right-handside, is ranked by the population size of thecensus division in 2011.60
  59. 59. Saskatchewan rural demographic update Div. 11 (incl. In 2011, Census Division No. 11 (includes Saskatoon) Saskatoon) Div. 6 (incl. Regina) reached 282,000 residents300,000 Div. 15 (incl. Prince Total population Albert & Humboldt) Div. 7 (incl. Moose Jaw) Div.17 (incl. Lloyd. &250,000 Meadow Lake) Div. 16 (incl. North Battleford) Div. 18 (Northern200,000 Saskatchewan) Div. 14 (incl. Melfort & Nipawin) Div. 9 (incl. Yorkton)150,000 Div. 1 (incl. Estevan) Div. 5 (incl. Melville) Div. 8 (incl. Swift100,000 Current) Div. 12 (incl. Rosetown, Biggar, Battleford) Div. 13 (incl. Kindersley) 50,000 Div. 2 (incl. Weyburn) Div. 10 (incl. Wadena & Wynyard) 0 Div. 3 (incl. Assiniboia) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Div. 4 (incl. MapleSource: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052. Creek) 61

×