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Disconfirming Evidence<br />CONFIDENTIAL<br />
The people want to know<br />“I want to be an entrepreneur. How do I know I’ve come up with a great idea?”<br />2<br />Ryp...
Short answer is…<br />You don’t.<br />3<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
From the “Not Yet” dept.<br />Don’t write a business plan.<br />Your idea will shift a lot during the customer discovery p...
Business plans…<br />…are exercises in convincing other people that you have a great idea. <br />5<br />Rypple Lessons fro...
Better use of your time<br /> Look for <br />disconfirming evidence<br />that the choice to start this business is a good ...
Prove you might be right…<br />…by proving that you’re probably not wrong.<br />There are no guarantees, but you’ll save a...
The Process<br />How to disprove your brilliant business idea in five easy steps<br />8<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenc...
1• Create a general filter<br />What’s your passion? <br />What kind of business do you want?<br />We knew we wanted SaaS,...
2• Do general research<br />Spend a few days talking to real people who know about your problem<br />We’ll revisit this id...
3• Agree on required truths<br />What must be true for your idea to be awesome?<br />This is the important part. Don’t lis...
Personal jet packs!<br />12<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Things that must be true to attain awesome:<br />Pe...
4• Arrange from easiest to hardest<br />13<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how<br />Regulatory a...
5• Disprove truths in order<br />14<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approva...
5• Disprove truths in order<br />15<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approva...
5• Disprove truths in order<br />16<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approva...
But wait!<br />Idea fail is not real fail. <br />You still learned stuff (hopefully by talking to people!) Tweak  and iter...
Most importantly!<br />Don’t give up.<br />If it’s not this one, it might be the next one. <br />Stick to the process and ...
Suggested reading material<br />19<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />See http://bit.ly/roger-martin for links<br />
Lessons from the trenches<br />Check out our blog for more lessons: http://bit.ly/rypple-lessons<br />20<br />Rypple Lesso...
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Lessons from the trenches: Disconfirming Evidence

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Since we’ve been involved with a successful startup before (Workbrain), people often call us for advice and insight on starting a new company. One of the most common questions we hear is: “I want to be an entrepreneur. How do I know I’ve come up with a great idea?” Here's a lesson from the trenches on how to find out.

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  • Transcript of "Lessons from the trenches: Disconfirming Evidence"

    1. 1. Disconfirming Evidence<br />CONFIDENTIAL<br />
    2. 2. The people want to know<br />“I want to be an entrepreneur. How do I know I’ve come up with a great idea?”<br />2<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    3. 3. Short answer is…<br />You don’t.<br />3<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    4. 4. From the “Not Yet” dept.<br />Don’t write a business plan.<br />Your idea will shift a lot during the customer discovery process to find product/market fit.<br />4<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    5. 5. Business plans…<br />…are exercises in convincing other people that you have a great idea. <br />5<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    6. 6. Better use of your time<br /> Look for <br />disconfirming evidence<br />that the choice to start this business is a good one<br />6<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    7. 7. Prove you might be right…<br />…by proving that you’re probably not wrong.<br />There are no guarantees, but you’ll save a lot of time and resource and get to customer development much sooner.<br />7<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    8. 8. The Process<br />How to disprove your brilliant business idea in five easy steps<br />8<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    9. 9. 1• Create a general filter<br />What’s your passion? <br />What kind of business do you want?<br />We knew we wanted SaaS, low professional services, <br />consumer-ized, freemium, focused on a large demographic shift<br />9<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    10. 10. 2• Do general research<br />Spend a few days talking to real people who know about your problem<br />We’ll revisit this idea in an upcoming lesson.<br />10<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    11. 11. 3• Agree on required truths<br />What must be true for your idea to be awesome?<br />This is the important part. Don’t list more than 5.<br />11<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    12. 12. Personal jet packs!<br />12<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Things that must be true to attain awesome:<br />People will want them (duh!)<br />You can get regulatory approval<br />You have access to technical know-how to design/build them<br />You can manufacture them at a price point a large market will bear<br />Illustration by Jonathan Wolfe. Licensed under Creative Commons.<br />
    13. 13. 4• Arrange from easiest to hardest<br />13<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how<br />Regulatory approval<br />Demand<br />Price point<br />Cake by Patent and the Pantry. Monster by Don Solo. Licensed under Creative Commons.<br />
    14. 14. 5• Disprove truths in order<br />14<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approval?<br />Demand?<br />Price point?<br />
    15. 15. 5• Disprove truths in order<br />15<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approval?<br />Demand?<br />Price point?<br />Damn! I don’t know how to build a jetpack.<br />
    16. 16. 5• Disprove truths in order<br />16<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Technical know-how?<br />Regulatory approval?<br />Demand?<br />Price point?<br />IDEA FAIL<br />Damn! I don’t know how to build a jetpack.<br />
    17. 17. But wait!<br />Idea fail is not real fail. <br />You still learned stuff (hopefully by talking to people!) Tweak and iterate on your idea or move on.<br />17<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />Customer Development diagram from Steve Blank.<br />
    18. 18. Most importantly!<br />Don’t give up.<br />If it’s not this one, it might be the next one. <br />Stick to the process and you’ll find one that doesn’t fail.<br />18<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
    19. 19. Suggested reading material<br />19<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />See http://bit.ly/roger-martin for links<br />
    20. 20. Lessons from the trenches<br />Check out our blog for more lessons: http://bit.ly/rypple-lessons<br />20<br />Rypple Lessons from the Trenches<br />
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