How to Use Agile to Move the Earth

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Agile Australia Keynote - 2013

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How to Use Agile to Move the Earth

  1. 1. @RallyOn    #AgileAus  #RallyforImpact  Slides:  bit.ly/AgileCTFW    How to use Agile tomove the Earth
  2. 2. Ryan@rallydev.com@RallyOn#RallyforImpact
  3. 3. DaveDouglasDavidSnowdenKembelBrothersMaryPoppendieckBernardAmadeiDonReinertsenSteveBlankEricRiesShoulders of whom I am standing on
  4. 4.  Flikr  by    ListensVision     hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw  
  5. 5. Two Failures of Agile – RoySignham, Agile Aus 20121. Failed at Small end –innovating with less2. Failed with bigger socialproblems
  6. 6. Beyond Agile 1.0 – RoySignham, Agile Aus 20121. Democratize of software forall – open source2. Democratize developmentof software globally3. You need to Contribute
  7. 7. You are the densestAgile CommunityWhat did you chooseto do?
  8. 8. After my ownThoughtworks talksI Choose
  9. 9. SocialMISSIONCreate andMobilizeCitizenEngineers
  10. 10. Responsible Engineering•  Technically•  Environmentally•  Socially
  11. 11. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/krisN_decourcy/7625148158/  
  12. 12. 400 PPM
  13. 13. Glacial - 168 ppmPre- Industrial – 285 ppmToday – 384 ppm (100 ppm in 100 years)400600800BillionTons Carbon
  14. 14. NaNonal  Snow  and  Ice  Data  Center  –  University  of  Colorado,  Boulder  hFp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html  20052007
  15. 15. source: Stroeve et al, 2007 GRL!and NSIDC 2007 Sea Ice website!Trends of September sea ice extent - MODELS and OBSERVATIONS"17
  16. 16. This is not anEnvironmentalProblem!
  17. 17. Only one forceon the planetlarge enough tostop this
  18. 18. Business
  19. 19. Move Beyond the Sprint
  20. 20. Beyond the ReleaseTeam Sprint/Flow1-3 weeksProgram ReleaseQuarterlyPortfolio SteeringQuarterly
  21. 21. Options ThinkingThe  expected  payoff  occurs  because  the  le3  side  has  less  area  than  the  right  side  Reinertsen,  Don.  Principles  of  Product  Development  Flow  
  22. 22. http://jchyip.blogspot.com/2010/05/lean-software-and-systems-conference.html(Probability  of  Failure)  Through Experiments
  23. 23. Faster CyclesBuild  Measure  Learn  
  24. 24. Effec%veness  Feasibility  Sustainability  Social  Jus%ce  Increased Empathy
  25. 25. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/elestedeloeste/1265202136/  
  26. 26. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  27. 27. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  28. 28. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  29. 29. hFp://hbr.org/2013/03/big-­‐bang-­‐disrupNon/  
  30. 30. Need to be adisciplined &ethicalexplorerNeed abilityto applyappropriatetechnologiesSupplements to create CitizenEngineers  EngineersSocialEntrepreneurshFp://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/  
  31. 31. Frame &EmpathizeBuild & ShipTest &MeasureLearn &ShareEmpathize – Explore - Execute
  32. 32. hFp://www.rallydev.com/rallyforimpact/content/engineering-­‐soluNons-­‐fly  
  33. 33. @RallyforImpact
  34. 34. Move the EarthBy Engineeringwithin Complexityand Empathy
  35. 35. Engineering Assumes
  36. 36. What we are taughtand how we createdthis situation
  37. 37. Civil Engineer – 1200 to 2000Eng Physics – 3000 to 5000In a four yearbachelors of sciencedegree:
  38. 38. What we assume
  39. 39. GaussiandistributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  40. 40. hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004   hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095  Gaussiandistributions
  41. 41. What surprises us?
  42. 42. Probabilities
  43. 43. 80 / 20
  44. 44. Power laws and Pareto distributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  45. 45. Other Pareto distributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  46. 46. Low probabilityevents have higherimpact
  47. 47. Plausible
  48. 48. An example
  49. 49. hFp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howabouFhat/6988398/The-­‐worlds-­‐tallest-­‐man-­‐Sultan-­‐Kosen-­‐and-­‐the-­‐shortest-­‐man-­‐in-­‐the-­‐world-­‐He-­‐Pingping-­‐meet.html  8’1’’2’5’’3.3 x
  50. 50. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308  
  51. 51. Bill GatesTheEntireRoom650 x
  52. 52. 99.8 / 1
  53. 53. How do we makesense of this?
  54. 54. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexUncertainty
  55. 55. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexUncertainty
  56. 56. Natural/SocialSystemsMechanicalSystemsUncertainty
  57. 57. Where doesuncertainty live?
  58. 58. Brown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  59. 59. Brown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    Level of uncertainty
  60. 60. Type of innovationSustainingBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  61. 61. When toexplore vs execute?
  62. 62. What to doBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    Execute
  63. 63. What to doBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  64. 64. Engineering withinComplexity
  65. 65.  Flikr  by  _DJ_  Neurons    Synapses    Transistors  Links      Flikr  by  Jurvtson  
  66. 66. .
  67. 67. We are changingthe Context!
  68. 68.  Flikr  by  _DJ_  7  Billion  Energy  &  TransportaNon  Technologies      InformaNon  Technology    Flikr  by  Jurvtson  
  69. 69. Jim  White,  Director  instaar.colorado.edu    
  70. 70. Think like aScientist!
  71. 71. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexDoAnythingFollowRecipeAnalyzeGuess &Learn
  72. 72. DoAnything!FollowRecipe !Analyze!Guess &Learn!Chaotic! Simple!Complex! Complicated!Bureaucrat!Engineer!Firefighter! Entrepreneur!Uncertainty
  73. 73. PreparePlanUncertainty
  74. 74. EmergeAnalyzeUncertainty
  75. 75. ExploreExecuteUncertainty
  76. 76. CustomerDevelopment(FROM LEAN STARTUP)
  77. 77. Agile = Build it RightAgile = Mindset ofChange
  78. 78. Alpha   Beta   Ship   Oh  Crap!  
  79. 79. CustomerDevelopment = Buildthe Right Thing
  80. 80. hFp://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-­‐startup-­‐owners-­‐manual-­‐sxsw-­‐11954724  Explore Execute
  81. 81. Turn GuessesFrameTest & MeasureBuild&ShipLearnInto Knowledge
  82. 82. First big Guess:We understand theproblem a customerwants solved
  83. 83. Customers don’t careabout your solution.They care about theirproblems.“Dave McClure
  84. 84. Engineering withEmpathy
  85. 85. hFp://youtu.be/_vBYjx6ID4g  
  86. 86. hFp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGiHU-­‐agsGY    
  87. 87. 2000 – 5000GIVEN problemsdriven to a SINGLENUMERICALanswer
  88. 88. Problem Space DefinedProblem SpaceSolution SpaceOp%on   Feasible   Effec%ve  1  2  3  
  89. 89. hFps://vimeo.com/5485269  
  90. 90.  Some  rights  reserved  by  Marek  Mahut  
  91. 91. How about anexample?
  92. 92. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/skillerphotos/7875656716  
  93. 93. Design Thinking
  94. 94. Design Thinking =Frame the RightProblem
  95. 95. o Design Thinking
  96. 96. ?
  97. 97. Maybe abetterway?
  98. 98. Disciplined way toturn all this uncertaintyinto knowledge
  99. 99. TAKE EACH MAJOR GUESS
  100. 100. RUN AN EXPERIMENT
  101. 101. Background: What do you want to learn and why?Frame the Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?Write the Problem Statement from the Define worksheet here. What pain or problem is being experienced?[Customer Segment] needs a way to [describe job to be done], (because|but|surprisingly) [describe insight].Hypothesis to Test[Specific repeatable action] will create [expected result].Is this hypothesis falsifiable?Experiment DetailsDescribe the experiment you plan to run and how you are going to attempt to falsify your hypothesis.Safety: How is the experiment safe to run and how will you recover?Describe how the experiment is safe to run.Describe how you will recover from running the experiment upon completion or if you discover it isn’t safe to run.MeasuresWhat will you measure to invalidate your hypothesis?What will you measure to indicate the experiment is safe to run?What will you measure to indicate you should amplify the experiment?Measures can be Qualitative and Quantitative.Experiment BacklogStack ranked list of actions needed to run the experiment.Next Steps: Given what you learned, what’s next?Experiment Results and LearningsDescribe what you learned from the experiment? Did you invalidate your hypothesis or does it live on?Experiment Name:Owner:Mentor: Date:I-2
  102. 102. Next guess:Our product solvesthe customer’sproblem
  103. 103. Chaotic! Simple!Complicated!Complex!Product lifecycle!
  104. 104. What happened tothis company?
  105. 105. AGILE
  106. 106. CUSTOMERDEVELOPMENT
  107. 107. 1  Began  Using  Lean  Startup  1  2  $50M  in  New  Product  Revenue  2  3  1800  Concurrent  Experiments      3  
  108. 108. SocialEntrepreneuringEXAMPLE
  109. 109. Effec%veness  Feasibility  Sustainability  Desirability  
  110. 110.  Flikr  by    ListensVision     hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw  
  111. 111. Weneedmoreworkhere
  112. 112. I wantYOUtochoose
  113. 113. Share a Citizen Engineering Story
  114. 114. http://www.sparkminute.com/2010/08/05/wireds-kevin-kelly-on-what-technology-wants/
  115. 115. Thank You@RallyOn    #rallyforimpact  Slides:  bit.ly/AgileCTFW      

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