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How to Use Agile to Move the Earth

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Agile Australia Keynote - 2013

Agile Australia Keynote - 2013

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  • 1. @RallyOn    #AgileAus  #RallyforImpact  Slides:  bit.ly/AgileCTFW    How to use Agile tomove the Earth
  • 2. Ryan@rallydev.com@RallyOn#RallyforImpact
  • 3. DaveDouglasDavidSnowdenKembelBrothersMaryPoppendieckBernardAmadeiDonReinertsenSteveBlankEricRiesShoulders of whom I am standing on
  • 4.  Flikr  by    ListensVision     hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw  
  • 5. Two Failures of Agile – RoySignham, Agile Aus 20121. Failed at Small end –innovating with less2. Failed with bigger socialproblems
  • 6. Beyond Agile 1.0 – RoySignham, Agile Aus 20121. Democratize of software forall – open source2. Democratize developmentof software globally3. You need to Contribute
  • 7. You are the densestAgile CommunityWhat did you chooseto do?
  • 8. After my ownThoughtworks talksI Choose
  • 9. SocialMISSIONCreate andMobilizeCitizenEngineers
  • 10. Responsible Engineering•  Technically•  Environmentally•  Socially
  • 11. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/krisN_decourcy/7625148158/  
  • 12. 400 PPM
  • 13. Glacial - 168 ppmPre- Industrial – 285 ppmToday – 384 ppm (100 ppm in 100 years)400600800BillionTons Carbon
  • 14. NaNonal  Snow  and  Ice  Data  Center  –  University  of  Colorado,  Boulder  hFp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html  20052007
  • 15. source: Stroeve et al, 2007 GRL!and NSIDC 2007 Sea Ice website!Trends of September sea ice extent - MODELS and OBSERVATIONS"17
  • 16. This is not anEnvironmentalProblem!
  • 17. Only one forceon the planetlarge enough tostop this
  • 18. Business
  • 19. Move Beyond the Sprint
  • 20. Beyond the ReleaseTeam Sprint/Flow1-3 weeksProgram ReleaseQuarterlyPortfolio SteeringQuarterly
  • 21. Options ThinkingThe  expected  payoff  occurs  because  the  le3  side  has  less  area  than  the  right  side  Reinertsen,  Don.  Principles  of  Product  Development  Flow  
  • 22. http://jchyip.blogspot.com/2010/05/lean-software-and-systems-conference.html(Probability  of  Failure)  Through Experiments
  • 23. Faster CyclesBuild  Measure  Learn  
  • 24. Effec%veness  Feasibility  Sustainability  Social  Jus%ce  Increased Empathy
  • 25. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/elestedeloeste/1265202136/  
  • 26. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  • 27. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  • 28. hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png  
  • 29. hFp://hbr.org/2013/03/big-­‐bang-­‐disrupNon/  
  • 30. Need to be adisciplined &ethicalexplorerNeed abilityto applyappropriatetechnologiesSupplements to create CitizenEngineers  EngineersSocialEntrepreneurshFp://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/  
  • 31. Frame &EmpathizeBuild & ShipTest &MeasureLearn &ShareEmpathize – Explore - Execute
  • 32. hFp://www.rallydev.com/rallyforimpact/content/engineering-­‐soluNons-­‐fly  
  • 33. @RallyforImpact
  • 34. Move the EarthBy Engineeringwithin Complexityand Empathy
  • 35. Engineering Assumes
  • 36. What we are taughtand how we createdthis situation
  • 37. Civil Engineer – 1200 to 2000Eng Physics – 3000 to 5000In a four yearbachelors of sciencedegree:
  • 38. What we assume
  • 39. GaussiandistributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  • 40. hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004   hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095  Gaussiandistributions
  • 41. What surprises us?
  • 42. Probabilities
  • 43. 80 / 20
  • 44. Power laws and Pareto distributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  • 45. Other Pareto distributionshFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-­‐mat/0412004  
  • 46. Low probabilityevents have higherimpact
  • 47. Plausible
  • 48. An example
  • 49. hFp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howabouFhat/6988398/The-­‐worlds-­‐tallest-­‐man-­‐Sultan-­‐Kosen-­‐and-­‐the-­‐shortest-­‐man-­‐in-­‐the-­‐world-­‐He-­‐Pingping-­‐meet.html  8’1’’2’5’’3.3 x
  • 50. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308  
  • 51. Bill GatesTheEntireRoom650 x
  • 52. 99.8 / 1
  • 53. How do we makesense of this?
  • 54. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexUncertainty
  • 55. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexUncertainty
  • 56. Natural/SocialSystemsMechanicalSystemsUncertainty
  • 57. Where doesuncertainty live?
  • 58. Brown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  • 59. Brown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    Level of uncertainty
  • 60. Type of innovationSustainingBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  • 61. When toexplore vs execute?
  • 62. What to doBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    Execute
  • 63. What to doBrown,  Tim  (2009-­‐09-­‐16).  Change  by  Design  (Kindle  LocaNon  1984).  Harper  Collins,  Inc..  Kindle  EdiNon.    
  • 64. Engineering withinComplexity
  • 65.  Flikr  by  _DJ_  Neurons    Synapses    Transistors  Links      Flikr  by  Jurvtson  
  • 66. .
  • 67. We are changingthe Context!
  • 68.  Flikr  by  _DJ_  7  Billion  Energy  &  TransportaNon  Technologies      InformaNon  Technology    Flikr  by  Jurvtson  
  • 69. Jim  White,  Director  instaar.colorado.edu    
  • 70. Think like aScientist!
  • 71. Chaotic SimpleComplicatedComplexDoAnythingFollowRecipeAnalyzeGuess &Learn
  • 72. DoAnything!FollowRecipe !Analyze!Guess &Learn!Chaotic! Simple!Complex! Complicated!Bureaucrat!Engineer!Firefighter! Entrepreneur!Uncertainty
  • 73. PreparePlanUncertainty
  • 74. EmergeAnalyzeUncertainty
  • 75. ExploreExecuteUncertainty
  • 76. CustomerDevelopment(FROM LEAN STARTUP)
  • 77. Agile = Build it RightAgile = Mindset ofChange
  • 78. Alpha   Beta   Ship   Oh  Crap!  
  • 79. CustomerDevelopment = Buildthe Right Thing
  • 80. hFp://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-­‐startup-­‐owners-­‐manual-­‐sxsw-­‐11954724  Explore Execute
  • 81. Turn GuessesFrameTest & MeasureBuild&ShipLearnInto Knowledge
  • 82. First big Guess:We understand theproblem a customerwants solved
  • 83. Customers don’t careabout your solution.They care about theirproblems.“Dave McClure
  • 84. Engineering withEmpathy
  • 85. hFp://youtu.be/_vBYjx6ID4g  
  • 86. hFp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGiHU-­‐agsGY    
  • 87. 2000 – 5000GIVEN problemsdriven to a SINGLENUMERICALanswer
  • 88. Problem Space DefinedProblem SpaceSolution SpaceOp%on   Feasible   Effec%ve  1  2  3  
  • 89. hFps://vimeo.com/5485269  
  • 90.  Some  rights  reserved  by  Marek  Mahut  
  • 91. How about anexample?
  • 92. hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/skillerphotos/7875656716  
  • 93. Design Thinking
  • 94. Design Thinking =Frame the RightProblem
  • 95. o Design Thinking
  • 96. ?
  • 97. Maybe abetterway?
  • 98. Disciplined way toturn all this uncertaintyinto knowledge
  • 99. TAKE EACH MAJOR GUESS
  • 100. RUN AN EXPERIMENT
  • 101. Background: What do you want to learn and why?Frame the Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?Write the Problem Statement from the Define worksheet here. What pain or problem is being experienced?[Customer Segment] needs a way to [describe job to be done], (because|but|surprisingly) [describe insight].Hypothesis to Test[Specific repeatable action] will create [expected result].Is this hypothesis falsifiable?Experiment DetailsDescribe the experiment you plan to run and how you are going to attempt to falsify your hypothesis.Safety: How is the experiment safe to run and how will you recover?Describe how the experiment is safe to run.Describe how you will recover from running the experiment upon completion or if you discover it isn’t safe to run.MeasuresWhat will you measure to invalidate your hypothesis?What will you measure to indicate the experiment is safe to run?What will you measure to indicate you should amplify the experiment?Measures can be Qualitative and Quantitative.Experiment BacklogStack ranked list of actions needed to run the experiment.Next Steps: Given what you learned, what’s next?Experiment Results and LearningsDescribe what you learned from the experiment? Did you invalidate your hypothesis or does it live on?Experiment Name:Owner:Mentor: Date:I-2
  • 102. Next guess:Our product solvesthe customer’sproblem
  • 103. Chaotic! Simple!Complicated!Complex!Product lifecycle!
  • 104. What happened tothis company?
  • 105. AGILE
  • 106. CUSTOMERDEVELOPMENT
  • 107. 1  Began  Using  Lean  Startup  1  2  $50M  in  New  Product  Revenue  2  3  1800  Concurrent  Experiments      3  
  • 108. SocialEntrepreneuringEXAMPLE
  • 109. Effec%veness  Feasibility  Sustainability  Desirability  
  • 110.  Flikr  by    ListensVision     hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw  
  • 111. Weneedmoreworkhere
  • 112. I wantYOUtochoose
  • 113. Share a Citizen Engineering Story
  • 114. http://www.sparkminute.com/2010/08/05/wireds-kevin-kelly-on-what-technology-wants/
  • 115. Thank You@RallyOn    #rallyforimpact  Slides:  bit.ly/AgileCTFW      

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