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    Ib demo russia - acrylic sanitary ware market_july 2012 Ib demo russia - acrylic sanitary ware market_july 2012 Document Transcript

    • Demo-VersionRussia: Market ofAcrylic Sanitary WareAnalysis and Forecast to 2017July 2012Marketing ResearchBarykovskiy lane 4, building 2, office 201 e-mail: info@indexbox.ru www.indexbox.ruMoscow, 119034Phone number: +7 495 988 96 06
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Brief OverviewThe report on acrylic sanitary ware market contains:  Analysis and forecast of market dynamics  The structure of consumption by region  Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main participants  Analysis of exports and imports  Assessment and forecast of market developmentMethodology:  Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players  Analysis of submissions from market participants  Analysis of statistical information, Rosstat, FEA.The report will allow you to: 1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts on the basis of market 2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the marketKey figures presented in the report of market research acrylic sanitary ware  The volume of production, exports and imports  Indicators of market  ConsumptionThe report contains the consensus market forecast based on the averaged value of forecastsof market participants. Market experts are: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributionlink, high volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications.The experts participating in the survey are provided special conditions on the acquisition ofreports. Page 2 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Why People Choose Us • We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis. • We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts verify all secondary information used in the report. • We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a complete picture of market interest. • Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work. • We offer unique and individualized customer service  Personal account on the website with a personal manager  Monitoring of the status of your order online  Pre-sale specialist advice and answers to questions post-purchase. • We offer special conditions for the actualization of our research reports. If interested, find out about these conditions from our specialists now! Page 3 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Study DesignThe purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian acrylic sanitary ware marketand build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.Geography Research: RussiaMethodology1. Analysis of secondary market informationSecondary information refers to data found online (industry portals, sites of competitors,shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, publicand private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, as well asprevious research uncovered by IndexBox.2. Analysis of materials from the market participants (price lists, brochures, etc.)Collecting data from market participants needed to analyze the specifics of the marketparticipants, their pricing and assortment policy. This data then goes through the analysis ofsecondary information, as well as by sending a request for price lists and other promotionalmaterials.3. Expert survey of market participantsThe analysis of secondary data is supplemented by expert interviews with representatives ofthe companies, participants of the market, producers and trading companies.Our approach to the estimationThe consensus forecast is the average value of forecasts overseen by market experts.ExpertsMarket experts are: Manufacturers, importers, wholesale distribution link, high volumeconsumers, professional associations and unions and trade publications. Expert opinions arecollected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular basis (thestandard is every six months, but can be more often based on a special request or underconditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive database ofexperts within key industries. The experts participating in the survey are provided specialconditions on the acquisition of reports.Accuracy of forecastsThe accuracy of forecasts are verified by experts in a given industry based on the historicalperiod (3 years), and in accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecaststo create the overall average forecast Page 4 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Indicators1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).2. Internal production: Is based on the projected volume of consumption and production capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of domestic production.3. Import and Export: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports. Page 5 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Table of ContentsAbout IndexBox1. Summary2. Study Design3. Product Description 3.1. The classification of acrylic sanitary ware4. Characterization of raw materials5. Characteristics of the Russian market of sanitary acrylic 5.1. Characteristics of the Russian market of acrylic sanitary ware from 2008-2011 and forecast to 2017 5.2. The structure of the Russian market of acrylic sanitary ware: production, imports, exports6. Characteristics of imports of plastic plumbing on the Russian market 6.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of plastic plumbing 6.2. Producing countries, leading suppliers of plastic plumbing into the territory of the Russian Federation 6.2.1. Producing countries, leading suppliers of plastic plumbing into the territory of the Russian Federation for 2009 6.2.2. Producing countries, leading suppliers of plastic plumbing into the territory of the Russian Federation for 2010 6.2.3. Producing countries, leading suppliers of plastic plumbing into the territory of the Russian Federation for 2011 6.2.4. Producing countries, leading suppliers of plastic plumbing to Russia in January-May 2012 6.3. Foreign manufacturers of plastic sanitary ware, imported to Russia 6.4. Russian companies, recipients of imported plastic plumbing 6.4.1. Russian companies, recipients of imported plastic plumbing in 2009 6.4.2. Russian companies, recipients of imported plastic plumbing in 2010 6.4.3. Russian companies, recipients of imported plastic plumbing in 2011 6.4.4. Russian companies, recipients of imported plastic plumbing in January- May 20127. Characteristics of Russian exports of plastic plumbing 7.1. The volume and dynamics of exports of plastic plumbing 7.2.1. Countries - recipients of Russian exports of plastic plumbing in 2009 7.2.2. Countries - recipients of Russian exports of plastic plumbing in 2010 7.2.3. Countries - recipients of Russian exports of plastic plumbing in 2011 7.2.4. Countries - recipients of Russian exports of plastic plumbing in January- May 2012 7.3. Russian manufacturers of plastic sanitary wares, exported from Russia8. Factors affecting the development of the market of plastic plumbing 8.1. Socio-economic situation in Russia from 2009 - I quarter 2012 Page 6 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version) 8.2. The level of welfare and consumer spending 8.3. The situation in the construction industry 8.4. Status of construction firms9. Market forecast of acrylic sanitary ware in the medium term 9.1. Background of the Russian economy 9.2. Scenarios for the world economy 9.3. Scenarios of acrylic sanitary ware market10. Description and forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary ware 10.1. Characteristics of the consumption of plastic plumbing 10.2. The balance of production and consumption of acrylic sanitary ware Page 7 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)List of TablesTable 1. The classification of acrylic sanitary wareTable 2. Production volumes and market shares of leading Russian manufacturers of acrylicsanitary wareTable 3. Volumes of production of the Russian manufacturers of plastic plumbing, thousandpiecesTable 4. Volume, dynamics and structure of acrylic sanitary ware market from 2008-2011and forecast up to 2017, thousand piecesTable 5. Imports of plastic plumbing in 2009Table 6. Imports of plastic plumbing countries in 2010Table 7. Imports of plastic plumbing countries in 2011Table 8. Imports of plastic plumbing countries from January-May 2012Table 9. Imports of plastic plumbing to producers for 2011Table 10. Imports of plastic plumbing by producers from January-May 2012Table 11. The volume of imports by the recipients for 2009Table 12. The volume of imports by the recipients for 2010Table 13. The volume of imports by the recipients for 2011Table 14. The volume of imports of recipients from January-May 2012Table 15. The volume of Russian exports by country for 2009Table 16. The volume of exports by country for 2010Table 17. The volume of exports by country for 2011Table 18. The volume of exports by country from January-May 2012Table 19. The volume of Russian exports by producers in 2011Table 20. The volume of Russian exports by producers from January-May 2012Table 21. The profitability of production and the dynamics of net financial results oforganizations by kinds of economic activity in 2008 and January 2012Table 22. Forecast production and consumption balance in the market of acrylic sanitaryware for 2009-2015, thousand pieces Page 8 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)List of FiguresFigure 1. The structure of the Russian market of sanitary ware in 2011 in real termsFigure 2. The market volume of acrylic sanitary ware from 2008-2011 and forecast for2012-2017 years, in kindFigure 3. The structure of the Russian market of plastic plumbing in 2011 in real termsFigure 4. Structure of Russian baths market in 2011 in real termsFigure 5. The market structure of acrylic sanitary ware from 2008-2011 and forecast for2012-2017 years, thousand piecesFigure 6. The market volume of acrylic sanitary ware from 2009-2012, in terms of valueFigure 7. The volume of imports of plastic plumbing products in 2009 - January-May 2012,millions of U.S. dollarsFigure 8. Dynamics of imports of plastic plumbing products from January-December 2011 invalue termsFigure 9. Dynamics of imports of plastic plumbing products from January-May 2012 in valuetermsFigure 10. Structure of imports by producing countries for 2009 in terms of valueFigure 11. Structure of imports by producers in 2010 in value termsFigure 12. Structure of imports by producers in 2011 in value termsFigure 13. Structure of imports by producers from January-May 2012 in value termsFigure 14. Structure of imports by producers in 2011 in value termsFigure 15. Structure of imports by producers from January-May 2012 in value termsFigure 16. Structure of imports by the recipients for 2009 in terms of valueFigure 17. Structure of imports by the recipients for 2010 in terms of valueFigure 18. Structure of imports by the recipients for 2011 in terms of valueFigure 19. Structure of imports by the recipients from January-May 2012 in value termsFigure 20. Dynamics of export of plastic plumbing in 2009 - January-May 2012 in valuetermsFigure 21. Dynamics of export of plastic plumbing from January-December 2011 in valuetermsFigure 22. Dynamics of export of plastic plumbing from January-May 2012 in value termsFigure 23. The structure of Russian exports by country recipients for 2009 in terms of valueFigure 24. The structure of Russian exports to countries - recipients for 2010 in value termsFigure 25. The structure of Russian exports to countries - recipients for 2011 in value termsFigure 26. The structure of Russian exports to countries - recipients from January to May2012 in value termsFigure 27. The structure of Russian exports of companies - producers for 2011 in valuetermsFigure 28. The structure of Russian exports of companies - producers from January-May2012 in value termsFigure 29. Quarterly changes in Russias GDP from 2007-2011 in the prices of 2008, trillionrubles, with the exception of the seasonal factorFigure 30. Dynamics of Russias GDP in 2005-2011 years, in 2008 prices, billion rublesFigure 31. Dynamics of real incomes, real wages, real pensions in 2005-2013 years. In% Page 9 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Figure 32. Quarterly changes in real disposable incomes of the Russian Federation,percentage of corresponding period of previous yearFigure 33. The structure of real spending from 2009-2011, in percentageFigure 34. The dynamics of the debt on loans to individuals from January 2009 to November2011, growth rate percentageFigure 35. The total volume of construction of buildings introduced in Russia from 2005-2011 years, million cubic metersFigure 36. The structure imposed by buildings in the 2005-2011 years, million cubic metersFigure 37. The total volume of construction of residential buildings in Russia from 2005-2011 years, million cubic metersFigure 38. The total construction volume of non-residential buildings introduced in Russiafrom 2005-2011 years, million cubic metersFigure 39. The volume of multi-family housing in the 2005-2011 years, thousand metersFigure 40. Volume I of individual houses in the 2005-2011 years, thousand metersFigure 41. Number of months that should be allotted for buying housing, the primarymarketFigure 42. Dynamics of production in certain sectors of the economy from 2008-2011Figure 43. The dynamics of investment in fixed capital at constant prices (volume index)from 2005-2011, percentage of previous yearFigure 44. Investments in fixed capital by sources of financing in the Russian Federationfrom 2007-2011Figure 45. Forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary ware market for 2012-2017, baselinescenarioFigure 46. Forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary ware market for 2012-2017,conservative scenarioFigure 47. Forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary ware market for 2012-2017,pessimistic scenarioFigure 48. The medium-term forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary wareFigure49. Forecast of the balance of production of acrylic sanitary ware from 2008-2017 Page 10 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Summary Key figures and conclusions about the market…In 2011, the market volume of acrylic sanitary ware was at ... million units, totaling ...million U.S. dollars. The increase amounted to about 10% in volume and 13% in value. Theyear 2012 was marked by continued growth in this market segment and by year-end isexpected to increase by 6% in volume and 26% in value, which is associated with anincrease in prices and the transition of customers to a more expensive price range ofsanitary products. If the current trends continues, ... million units will be sold by the end of2012, which can be attributed to the external factors affecting the industry, such as housingconstruction, the frequency of repairs and renovations of apartments and private homes, aswell as the gradual public acceptance of sanitary acrylic as a worthwhile product.The volume of imports into Russia of plastic plumbing in 2011 was approximately ... millionunits, which was 10% more than in 2010. From January-May 2012 there was an increase ofimports in value terms by 20%. Over the last two years (2011-2012), domestic producershave accounted for only about 40% of products in physical terms. In the time slice from2009-2012, the volume of exports has shown an increase in value and reached ... millionU.S. dollars by the end of 2011.While there has been a slight decrease in the construction industry these last few years,there has been, as noted above, moderate increases in the plastic plumbing market, largelyattributable to the growing public acceptance of acrylic sanitary ware. In fact, in the firsthalf of 2012 there was a reverse trend with people buying more expensive, high-qualityacrylic sanitary ware and its more complex products.… Page 11 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)3. Product Description... 3.1. The classification of acrylic sanitary ware Multiple classifiers - The types of economic activity (for Russian-made) - The Commodity Code (for exports... and imports) - The consumer properties (for the description of use) - In terms of composition (for a description of the resource base)The market of sanitary products is very diverse, but it can be classified by major commoditygroups, such as sanitary ware, bath tubs, faucets, fittings and more. Currently, theproduction of household plumbing are most commonly produced in: cast iron, steel, variousplastics and ceramics. Baths Shower Enclosures Other Source: Experts Opinion, Analysis: IndexBox Fig. 1. The structure of the Russian market of sanitary ware in 2011 in real terms... Page 12 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)4. Characteristics of the rawmaterials’ base…The advantages of acrylic baths were made apparent more than 30 years ago in theEuropean HVAC market. Only recently, within the last ten years, has this product typeentered the Russian market, but it is now prevalent and readily available.Acrylic (acrylic glass, PMMA, polymethylmethacrylate) is one of the many types of plastic,under the category of thermoplastic, which are materials capable of heating to a certaintemperature to soften and take the form given to them, and upon cooling maintain thisform (based on the technology used in the manufacture of plastic plumbing).Plumbing fixtures are made of different types of acrylic. The main raw materials areplumbing acrylic (PMMA) and sanitary ABS-acrylic (two-layer plastic).The two-layer plastic is used to produce assorted fittings and in the manufacture of acrylicbaths. A thinner version of this is used in the production of shower units, side panels anddecorative tubs and trays. The thickness of the two-layer plastic ranges from 5 to 11 mm,depending on its purpose and models of plumbing products. Plumbing plastic ABS-acrylicsare also called "Acrylic", a well-established term; the phrase "two-layer ABS / acrylic" is notvery commonly used (this interpretation is given usually in the documentation).Another use for dual-layer ABS-acrylic plastic is in the repair of cast iron bathtubs. Whenthe bathtub shows signs of wear (cracks in the enamel, rust, etc.), a molded acrylic (ABS /acrylic) liner is inserted to bring it back to life. Simple sanitary acrylic, in this case, is lessreliable due to its fragility during assembly.… Page 13 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)5. Characteristics of the RussianMarket of Sanitary Acrylic 5.1. Characteristics of the Russian Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware in 2008-2011 and Forecast to 2017… We consider the annual and monthly dynamics in retrospect, the monthly dynamics of the current year тыс.шт. в % к предыдущему году2500 160% 140%2000 110% 120% 107% 117% 105% 106% 109% 108% 100%1500 105% 107% 80%1000 60% 40% 500 20% 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Source: Data (“Rosstat, “FTS”, And Expert Opinion), Analysis: IndexBoxFig. 2. The market volume of acrylic sanitary ware in 2008-2011. and forecast for 2012-2017 years. in kindDespite a slight decrease in the construction industry these last few years, there has beenmoderate increases in the plastic plumbing market, largely attributable to the growingpublic acceptance of acrylic sanitary ware. In fact, in the first half of 2012 there was areverse trend with people buying more expensive, high-quality acrylic sanitary ware. Page 14 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version) 5.2. The structure of the Russian market of acrylic sanitary ware: production, imports, exports A complete picture of the market… retrospective and forecast up to 2017In the medium term, the market ... by ...% compared to 2011 year, and the volume ofRussian-made by ...% ... at ...% of the total market. Производство Потребление 2500 Экспорт Импорт 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert Opinion), Analysis: IndexBox Fig. 3. The market structure of acrylic sanitary ware in 2008-2011. and forecast for 2012-2017 years., thousand pieces.… Page 15 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)6. Characteristics of Imports of PlasticPlumbing on the Russian Market 6.1. The volume and dynamics of imports of plastic plumbing A detailed analysis of… imports on the basis of the FCSDuring January-May 2012, imports amounted to ... million U.S. dollars. In the RussianFederation, from 2009-2012, the following types of sanitary ware products were made ofplastic ... and combination showers in the form of ... ... for showers, kitchen sinks, etc. cost millions of U.S. dollars % of prev. year 200 200% 180 180% 160 160% 140 140% 120 120% 100 100% 80 80% 60 60% 40 40% 20 20% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 January-May 2012 Source: Data (“FTS”, Expert Opinion), Analysis: IndexBox Fig. 4. The volume of imports of plastic plumbing products in 2009 - January-May 2012., millions of U.S. dollars… Page 16 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)7. Characteristics of Russian Exportsof Plastic Plumbing 7.1. The volume and dynamics of exports of plastic plumbing A detailed… analysis of exports on the basis of the FCS cost millions of U.S. dollars % of prev. year 800 350% 700 300% 600 250% 500 200% 400 150% 300 100% 200 100 50% 0 0% January February March April May Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis: IndexBoxFig. 5. Dynamics of export of plastic plumbing in January-May 2012 in value terms… Page 17 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)10. Description and Forecast ofConsumption of Acrylic Sanitary Ware 10.1. Characteristics of the consumption of plastic plumbing…It has become more common in Russia that when repairing or renovating an apartmentmore expensive plumbing products are chosen. These higher quality products are attractivein appearance, occasionally even brand driven, which is very important for the modernconsumer, especially in larger cities. It is also worth noting that in most new high and lowrise private investment building projects, the plumbing installed by the builder is more oftenthan not higher end and foreign-made.… thousands of pieces % of prev. year 2500 118% 116% 2000 114% 112% 1500 110% 108% 1000 106% 104% 500 102% 100% 0 98% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Source: Data (“FTS”), Expert Opinio, Analysis: IndexBox Fig. 6. The medium-term forecast of consumption of acrylic sanitary ware… Page 18 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)About IndexBox"IndexBox" is one of the leading companies in the sphere of marketing consulting. We carryout pieces of marketing research and consult on questions about strategic marketing. • The "IndexBox" team has been working together for more than 7 years. • The average experience of "IndexBox" specialists in the marketing sphere is 10 years. • “IndexBox" employs 15 specialists in its research analytical department. • The gathering of the researched information is controlled by 8 employees, all with vast experience in field work. And who oversee more than 150 experienced interviewers. • Over 10 years, we have completed more than sixteen hundred projects, most of which are focused on the consumer and industrial markets. The geography of the research includes not only the territory of Russia, but also foreign markets. • In total, more than 80,000 respondents have taken part in our research studies. • Not only does "IndexBox" have a wide partner network in the regions of the Russian Federation, the CIS, and the Baltic countries, but also has countless foreign partners, including the largest research companies in the USA, the UK, France, India, and China.Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies: Page 19 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru
    • Market Research Russia: Market of Acrylic Sanitary Ware. July 2012 (Demo-version)Marketing researchOur specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C andB2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products andservices. Our competitive advantage is the formation of special research techniques to thetasks of each project. System planning and operational monitoring of the industry, created acompany that allows professionals to operate in IndexBox their work relevant and accurateinformation.Business PlanningWe are professionally engaged in developing business plans, feasibility studies, investmentmemoranda, conduct financial analysis of enterprises and prepare analysis for transactionsM & A. Business plans developed by IndexBox, contain a complete financial model for thefurther implementation of the project, all calculations are based on marketing information,which is permanently collected and analyzed for over 7 years. Documents comply with thestandards of Russian and foreign banks, the projects have market feasibility and realisticprojections, and we provide assistance in finding an investor and financing, legal support.Strategic MarketingWe develop strategic development for brands, products, separate business units andindustry. Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communicationstrategy. Projects in the field of strategic marketing are relevant to large enterprises,financial and investment companies that are planning to expand its interests as well assmall companies that are thinking about business development.DevelopmentConsulting in development - is to develop the best options for use of the area. To do this,our marketing agency, conducts research real estate market, analyzes the possibleconstruction, and estimates the market feasibility and economic benefits of investing in realestate. Marketing agency IndexBox offers a range of professional services for the study ofthe real estate market and the development of individual marketing concept of the facility. Page 20 from 20 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru