myForesight - Malaysia's Shipbuilding Industry


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myForesight - Malaysia's Shipbuilding Industry

  1. 1. Private Sector R&D Foresight in Spearheading 2nd Frontier Does PRT Have a PlaceVital To Boost Determining Priority of Sustainability in in the Greater KLGrowth Research Directions Malaysian Rubber Transportation Industry Infrastructure p13JANUARY 20121/2012ISSN NO: 2229-9637 MALAYSIA’S SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY Shifting Towards Sustainability
  2. 2. inside January 2012 features EDITOR’S NOTE p02 Initial Thoughts p04 LEADER’S INSIGHTS Private Sector R&D Vital To Boost Growth 21 EXPERTS’ INSIGHTS p06 Application of Foresight Methods for the Determination of Priority Research Directions of the Future INDUSTRY INSIGHTS p13 Spearheading Second Frontier of Sustainability in Malaysian Rubber Industry p21 Innovating Innovation: Innovation In the Age of Disruption And Black Swans p24 Towards A High Income Society - The Offset Programs p20 YOUTH INSIGHTS Creative Multimedia 28 p48 Foresight Outreach: What Say Youth COVER STORY p28 Malaysia’s Shipbuilding Industry - Shifting Towards Sustainability TRENDS & ISSUES p33 Driving Technological Catch Up In The IC Industry In Malaysia p38 Does PRT Have a Place in the Greater KL Transportation Infrastructure p40 Megatrends in Railways p43 VIEWPOINTS Future of Halal: From Niche to Mainstream 38 p52 THE WORLD MOVING FORWARD FORESIGHT INTERCONNECT™ p54 myForesight™ Bookclub p19 Letter From The FutureEDITORIAL BOARD 43EDITOR-IN-CHIEF PUBLISHED BYRushdi Abdul Rahim Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High TechnologyWRITERS Prime Ministers DepartmentProf. Emeritus Dato’ Dr. Zakri Abdul Hamid 3517, Jalan Teknokrat 5Datuk Dr. Salmiah Ahmad 63000 Cyberjaya Selangor Darul EhsanBeata Poteralska Rajah RasiahIr. Dr. Aziz Hassan FOR INQUIRIESMajor (R) Zailani Safari myForesight™Azim PawanchikDr. Suraya Sulaiman Phone : +603 8315 7888Mohd Afzanizam Mohd Badrin Fax : +603 8312 0300Natrah Mohd Emran E-mail : Abu Bakar Website : www.myforesight.myFatin NuramaninaMuhammad Ridhwan Naim Suhaime DISCLAIMERHazim Adly Harun Any article included in this publication and/ or opinions expressed therein do not necessarilyCONTRIBUTORS reflect the views of the myForesight™Mohd Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri but remain solely those of the author(s).Amallia Ahmad ZainiAni Suzila Anas The Publisher is not to be held responsible forAhmad Nazri Abudin any copyright violation of articles, which have been provided by contributing writers.Mohd Kamaruzaman AbdullahMuhammad Hasif Hasan PP17630/12/2012(031478)
  3. 3. January 2012 editor’s note Initial Thoughts BY RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM Director myForesight™ “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future” - Yoda However, given the complexity of the external environment, the thinking that goes into strategy Dr. Rajah Rasiah talks about the Malaysian IC “Everybody The previous quote underlines the difficulty development needs to be divergent and expansive. industry and how it’s knows that of trying to look beyond the present. If the all- Foresight approach facilitates, in fact encourages playing technological every decision powerful Jedi Master with fictional powers like this line of thinking, and then bringing this back to catch up to the rest of Yoda from the Star Wars Hexalogy would not be the present and now, to the strategic decisions that the world, raising the that we make2 able to see what the future lays ahead, where does need to be made today. The aim is to strengthen questions of policy today, either this leave mere mortal like us. So called experts and futurist have all tried to predict something those strategic decisions - to make them wiser and more robust, and able to withstand the change and implications and what’s the best strategy to as individuals about the future with mixed results. Nowadays, uncertainties that the future will bring. move forward. You or as the use of foresight tools and methodology has could read all about organisations provided some means towards looking ahead with The articles that were, is and will be published this edition’s trends and confidence. in myForesightTM reflects this line of thoughts; issues. will have an exploring the possibilities and how the future impact on However through my interactions I am still greeted by the question, why foresight? oriented thinking are embedded into the formulation of strategy and recommendations to Previously we’ve talked about the technology the future” be taken now. strategy of the nation. This includes either to Everybody knows that every decision that we make develop the technology on our own, do it in today, either as individuals or as organisations Beata Poteralska’s piece on how Poland uses partnership collaboratively or outright acquiring will have an impact on the future. Therefore it foresight methodology and approach in defining the technology required. In this edition we’re makes sense to explore the potential impact of their defining national research priority areas is providing a viewpoint on technology acquisition such decisions before they are made, and to make a prime example of future oriented analysis and and how to maximize its benefits through a the best decisions that we can today. There are, recommendations. You could read all about it on national offset program. however no future facts, and in a world obsessed page 06. by data driven decision making, the challenge We are glad to say that we have garnered positive for advocates of foresight is to demonstrate how On the home front the Malaysian ship building reviews so far on the magazine and hope to exploring the future today will add value to the ship repairs industry is also undertaking a continually do so in making the magazine planning processes. revolution of sorts; developing a roadmap to ensure beneficial and thought provoking. future sustainability, whereas Datuk Dr. Salmiah’s What foresight attempts to do is to create a better piece provide us with insights of what it takes to After reading the magazine, we expect you to have understanding of the drivers of change and the spearhead the rubber industry into the future. your opinion on certain matters. You might agree or megatrends as well as its impact that will enable disagree. Whichever it goes, we want to hear them. us to have a new understanding about the future. With the growing concern of energy security, the We welcome your feedback and contributions. The future will be nothing like the past. If you were focus on public transport especially in Malaysia to go back only five or ten years and think about has grown considerably; Dr Aziz’s take on the whether you could have imagined the details of the future of KL public transport infrastructure and future that is now, what would you have thought the possibility of PRT being introduced provides was possible? interesting food for thought.
  4. 4. January 2012 leaders insights Private Sector R&D Vital To Boost Growth BY PROF EMERITUS DATO’ DR. ZAKRI ABDUL HAMID Science Advisor to the Prime Minister of Malaysia / Joint Chairman - Government, MIGHT Because the private sector is closer to the market, it is better positioned to create wealth through R&D — transforming knowledge into products and services that Malaysians and4 others in today’s global marketplace need, want and will pay for. M ALAYSIA has successfully Across the world, the private sector carries out two- Various mechanisms were introduced globally transformed its economy from thirds to three-quarters of R&D activities. to promote private sector R&D. Widely used its original agricultural base financial instruments include subsidies/grants to one characterised by strong Private sector involvement in research-driven and tax incentives. For example: A generation ago manufacturing and service sectors. activities, therefore, is key to Malaysia’s economic the United States was one of the first nations to growth and competitiveness. encourage private sector R&D through tax credits. This ongoing transition moves Malaysia ever closer Since then, a range of economists have agreed that to its official Vision 2020: a high income economy Because the private sector is closer to the market, every tax credit dollar stimulates from US$1 (RM3) based on innovation and knowledge generation. it is better positioned to create wealth through to US$3 in additional private investment by US R&D — transforming knowledge into products and companies. Underpinning a high income economy are science, services that Malaysians and others in today’s global technology and innovation, which together form marketplace need, want and will pay for. Private In the case of Malaysia, the main R&D incentives an important contributor to economic growth and sector R&D will also strengthen the firms involved are granted in the form of “pioneer status”, help determine the competitiveness of firms in the in innovation, which in turn allow them to improve investment tax allowance and double deduction marketplace, nationally and internationally. productivity, succeed in competitive markets, and or tax exemption. However, an innovative, bolder meet environmental and regulatory standards. approach is needed to enhance private sector R&D A prerequisite for technological advancement activities, attract foreign investment and stimulate is research and development (R&D). The level Although the private sector traditionally develops domestic investment to achieve Vision 2020. of R&D expenditure is a reliable indicator of research capabilities in-house, they also establish innovative capacity and the 10th Malaysia Plan aims collaborative links with other organisations, such Toward this end, the Malaysian Industry- to achieve R&D investment of at least one per cent as universities, and acquire the results of innovation Government Group for High Technology of GDP by 2015. Reaching that goal will require from other enterprises through licensing or (MIGHT), under the Prime Minister’s a bold commitment, including large injections of takeovers. Finally, private sector R&D creates highly Department, was instrumental in nurturing funds from the government and, more importantly, skilled human capital. and encouraging private sector R&D in the the private sector. past. MIGHT has come a long way since its
  5. 5. January 2012 leaders insights MIGHT is working closely with ministries and industry players to ensure that the offset programs are developed and structured to address issues related to the development of strategic industry in the country, leveraging major acquisitions by the government and government linked companies. Launching of Aerospace Malaysia Innovation Centre (AMIC) By YAB Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak on 6th December 2011 during LIMA 2011. 5establishment in 1993 as a not for- profit, industry- MIGHT is working closely with ministries and in- Centre (AMRC) in Sheffield, United Kingdom.government partnership with a mission to promote dustry players to ensure that the offset programmes It is founded on the shared scientific excellence,high technology development in Malaysia. are developed and structured to address issues expertise and technological innovation of the related to the development of strategic industry in world’s leading aerospace companies, and world-MIGHT’s agenda remains focused on two major the country, leveraging major acquisitions by the class research within the University of Sheffield’schallenges. government and government-linked companies. Faculty of Engineering.First: provide measured opinions on cross- These efforts respond to the prime minister’s call It develops innovative and advanced technologysectoral issues or cross-cutting technologies, to create more revenue-based projects, and for solutions for materials forming, metal working andand, second: take actions needed to harness the the private sector to lead in creating wealth for castings.commercial applications of technology to foster a Malaysia.better economic future for the nation. It also has internationally acknowledged research An innovative approach championed by MIGHT in the field of composite materials, an area crucialMIGHT believes the nation’s future rests on its to encourage private sector R&D is the recent to the development of Boeing’s next generationability to continuously harness technology for founding of the Aerospace Manufacturing In- and create new industries. What is needed novation Centre (AMIC). Jointly funded by theis a continuous, systematic effort to prospect government and industry, the centre’s participants Achieving the right balance between the publicfor strategic technologies in both the traditional include the European Aeronautic Defence and sector and private industry is a complicatedfields like manufacturing and new fields, such as Space Company, Rolls-Royce and Composite economic endeavour for a country like Malaysia —biotechnology and nanotechnology. Technology Research Malaysia. a small country with relatively limited resources. But neither the private sector’s invisible handOne interesting initiative to boost private sector A significant feature of AMIC is that the R&D, nor governmental heavy-handedness can be theR&D was the offset management activities through conducted by a university consortium, will en- solution.MIGHT’s Technology Depository Agency for courage local industry to participate and base itsthe Finance Ministry. The service plays a strategic research pursuits on industry needs. It is true that the private sector cannot spur angovernment role undertaken for the purpose of innovation agenda without the government, but itensuring that national procurement programmes AMIC will also train local talent with courses at is equally true that the government cannot replacesupport the country’s development objectives Master’s and PhD levels in the field of aerospace private-sector market forces. It is imperative thatthrough acquisitions of technology, industrial technology. the public and private sectors work together well.participation and market access. The AMIC R&D centre of excellence is modelled This article was published in The News Straits Times, 20 August on the Advanced Manufacturing Research 2011
  6. 6. January 2012 experts insights APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT Methods for the Determination of Priority Research Directions of the Future BY BEATA POTERALSKA Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, ul. K. Pulaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom Beata.Poteralska@itee.radom.pl6 Summary The article presents methodology of forecasting research directions crucial for the development of the competitiveness and innovativeness of the Polish enterprises and technological institutes. The application of the methodology is presented on the basis of environmental technologies, one of the key areas of technical support for the economy’s sustainable development. With the use of the developed methodology, future research directions have been identified together with key incremental and emerging technologies within them, for whom technology characteristics cards have been created. Following that, R&D directions have been roadmapped and scenarios of technological and educational (qualifications and competences) development have been designed. The priority research directions identified in the scenarios, and the incremental and emerging technologies within them, should be the core theme for the realisation of research projects, such as national strategic programmes, for instance. The proof of the successful implementation of the methodology developed, is “Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of the Economy” strategic project launched in the thematic area generated with the use of the methodology designed, co-financed from the European structural funds, prepared and co-ordinated by the Institute represented by the author of the paper. knowledge-based economy. The actions taken to solutions including, among others, the elimination Introduction design and implement environmental solutions of inefficient, energy consuming and high-waste Innovativeness and competitiveness of advanced are one of the key areas of technical support for industrial technologies as well as the limit on raw product and process technologies are the deciding the sustainable economic development. As far materials and resources wasteful management is factors in the selection of development directions as this particular area is concerned, the design really necessary. and the development pace of a contemporary of future short- and long term environmental
  7. 7. January 2012 experts insightsIntroduction of the EU and national regulations a. The application potential of research results directions was thus possible. The description ofand documents stimulating the development of and their implementation in the process of the state-of-the-art included both the cognitiveenvironmental technologies and the inclusion innovative technologies development on the performance of Polish, European or internationalof ecological priorities in strategic research 5-15 year horizon; scientific institutions leading in a given domainprogrammes confirm the importance of research and the technological achievements resulting inactivities for the development of ecological b. The interdisciplinarity of solutions and their innovations complying with worldwide standardssolutions. An example of the document of the key potential influence on economy’s sustainable and ready to be commercially deployed. The resultsimportance are the directives of the European Union development; obtained embrace general research directionsdirected at the creation of system requirements for on the national and global level and integratedthe development of eco-friendly technological c. The scientific and technological level of groups of these directions in a selected area ofprocesses and the undertaking of activities solutions complying with the highest global strategic importance comprising environmentalminimising and managing the amount of waste standards. technologies.created through pure ecological utilisation, forinstance. Strategic research directions are identified The analyses of research projects realised at R&D The aim of the expert analyses was to support thein governmental documents and long term plans institutions dealing with the subject matter of analysis of the state-of-the-art. External expertsfor the organisation of the scope of activity of the environmental technologies were the starting point representing the science, industry and publicEuropean and national technology platforms. The for conducted research. They were the basis for the administration sectors, who had not participated inproblem of environmental technologies ranks high formulation of general, leading research directions the initial identification of future research directions,on the priority list of national and international realised by scientific institutes. assessed the priority research directions in the scaleresearch programmes as well. of the country and the sector. The consideration of Among the key mechanisms of generating future the experts’ remarks enabled the modification and research directions were the analysis of the state- extension of the proposed research directions, andDetermining priority research of-the-art and the expert analyses. in consequence the selection of new future researchdirections and key technologies directions.In order to use the existing resources effectively and The convergence of identified research directionsimprove the level of competitiveness of national with directions of research conducted by national Within realised tasks, future research directionseconomy, it is necessary to indicate strategic and international R&D institutes played an for the strategic research institute – Institute forresearch directions that would comply with the important role. For this purpose the analyses of the Sustainable Technologies – National Research 7European and national priorities and take the state-of-the-art were conducted on the basis of the Institute (ITeE-PIB) in Radom, Poland wereexisting scientific and infrastructure potential in the following: determined and on that basis, leading researchundertaken thematic area into consideration. directions were generated for the sector conducting a. Strategic Documents For The Creation environmental research with the attention paidTo determine priority future research directions, Of Country’s Industrial Policy And Eu to the needs of the country and incorporatingthe methodology of their identification in the Documents; integrated leading directions of research conductedareas of strategic importance was designed.1 in that domain globally.The article presents procedures for conducting b. Subject And Results Of National Andresearch and the effects of the application of the International Foresight Project; The analysis of the key development trends anddesigned methodology in relation to the area of the research results in the domain of industrialenvironmental technologies.2 c. Selected Publications (I.E. In Journals By technologies influencing the improvement of the Elsevier And Springer); environment condition enabled the identificationIt was assumed that priority research directions of priority research areas that would allow forwould be determined with consideration of the d. Conference Materials From Selected the development of innovative technologicalexisting scientific and technological potential and Significant International And National solutions with high implementation potential. In aits growth forecast for the next 5-10 years, which Conferences; presented thematic area, the priority directions ofis the time brackets for the realisation of generated environmental technologies include:research tasks and directions. e. Reports On The Research Activity Of Leading Technological Institutes And Catalogues a. technologies of producing maintenanceBoth the micro scale – understood as the generation Of Innovative Products In The Area Of materials with increased maintenance values,of research directions realised at scientific Environmental Technologies;institutions, and the macro scale – understood as b. technologies for the rationalisation of the usethe consideration of research directions strategic f. Patent Databases. of raw materials and resources,for the country’s development and inspired by theresults of sectoral foresights, and the consideration The analysis of the state-of-the-art was done 1 Tasks realised within the framework of the sectoral foresight projectof the strategic documents and directives of the in the iterative system and formed the basis “Advanced Industrial and Ecological Technologies for the SustainableEuropean Union were applied. for the identification of priority research Development of Poland” in the 2008-2010 period, coordinated by the directions, within which the literature analysis institute represented by the author of this paper. 2 Within the framework of the foresight project, the designed methodologyIt was assumed that the determined research of the current state-of-the-art allowing to has been applied in the process of the identification of the future researchdirections should comply with the following determine the most important, and previously directions in such thematic areas, besides environmental technologies, ascriteria: not incorporated research directions was material technologies and nanotechnologies; machatronic technologies and control systems; specialised test and research apparatus; and conducted. The verification of the priority research technologies of technical and environmental safety.
  8. 8. January 2012 experts insights technologies was created5. Within that database it is possible to modify and add information about the INTERNAL EXPERTS EXTERNAL EXPERTS technologies. SUBSTANTIAL METHODOLOGICAL WORK WORK CONSULTATIONS Development scenario building Design of Technology Characteristics Forms Lists of priority research directions of the future and incremental and emerging technologies in priority List of Incremental Technologies Incremental Technologies (Supplement, modification, directions within environmental technologies Characteristics Form suggestions, etc. ) were the basis for the creation of scenarios of technological development. List of Emerging Technologies Emerging Technologies Characteristics Form In an original methodology developed, it was assumed that the first stage of works conducted would include the creation of scenarios with the application of the analysis of the results of the influence of key factors identified for a given DATABASE thematic area on technologies and research Set of Incremental and Emerging Technologies directions selected in this area. Within the domain of environmental technologies, Fig. 1. Procedure of the realisation of works concerning the development of technology the following key factors were identified after characteristics. Source: Author consultations with external experts: • The research and technological potential c. technologies of waste recycling and through the systematic implementation of product (laboratory base, technical infrastructure – utilisation, and process innovations. Emerging technologies4, r&d institutions and innovative enterprises);8 on the other hand, are technologies characterised d. low-waste technologies of manufacturing and by a dynamic development in a given area of • The levels of innovativeness and regenerating machines and devices, knowledge and research practice, that facilitates implementation readiness of research increased competitiveness level. results; e. pro-ecological technologies of producing energy, The initial technologies proposal was elaborated by • The dynamics and effectiveness of industrial field experts that participated in the project, and was deployment of obtained solutions; f. logistics systems for waste and energy then consulted with external experts specialising in management. the domain of environmental technologies. • The national R&D priorities. Detailed key research directions were identified in Simultaneously to works concerning the Following that, the impact the key factors have on aforementioned priority areas. identification of priority technologies, internal individual technologies and groups of technologies experts in the field of methodology participated in the area of environmental technologies was The next stage of the undertaken research concerned in tasks concerning the design of technology analysed. The experts evaluated two elements:6 the generation of lists of priority technologies and the characteristics forms, which were consulted with design of characteristics of identified technologies. external experts experienced in the realisation of • The influence of one of the three identified key Works focused on the development of priority foresight projects. Due to their specificity, separate factor development tendencies (increasing, technologies and the creation of forms for the design forms for emerging and incremental technologies decreasing, constant) on the development of characteristics were conducted simultaneously by were created. of individual technologies and groups of the internal experts – representatives of the project technologies; coordinator and the external experts. The outline of The characteristics include such elements as: the realised activities is presented in (Fig. 1). phase of technological development, the objective • The probability of the occurrence of a given of the application of technologies, the description of tendency. Generated priority technologies were then technological process, areas of current and potential assigned to two groups: incremental and emerging applications, capital and employment requirements The development scenarios in the field of technologies. The first of them influences a short and and potential effects of the implementation of environmental technologies were then built on the long term subject area of R&D activity in Poland technologies (i.e. ecological, economic, social). 3 A. Mazurkiewicz, Mechanisms of knowledge transformation in the area and it concerns the 5-year planning period, whereas of advanced technologies of surface engineering. Proceedings of the the latter enables the development of guidelines Technology characteristics cards were then created 15th IFHTSE & SMT 20 International Federation for Heat Treatment and for a long term strategy of R&D institutes research in the form of an on-line questionnaire filled Surface Engineering Congress, Vienna 2006, pp. 270–277. 4 O. D. Soares, oth., Innovation and technology: Strategies and policies, activity, and it deals with the 10-15-year prognosis. in with data necessary for the identification of Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht 1997 Incremental technologies3 are technologies directed characteristics of individual technologies. As a result, 5 at a gradual improvement of existing solutions an on-line database of incremental and emerging 6 G. Gierszewska, M. Romanowska, Analiza strategiczna przedsiębiorstwa, PWE Warsaw 2009, pp. 199-212
  9. 9. January 2012 experts insights basis of the results of expert analyses. The creation of three scenarios: dynamic development scenario, Dynamic Stabilisation Scenario Decline scenario stabilisation scenario and decline scenario (Fig. 2) Development • Constant tendency • Decreasing was proposed with consideration of development Scenario of factors at the tendency of factors tendencies of individual factors and the probability • Increasing tendency high probability • High probability of the occurrence of these tendencies. of factors of the occurrence of the occurrence • High probability of this tendency of this tendency It was assumed that at the next stage of scenario of the occurrence • Increasing and building, the ranking of priority technologies and of that tendency decreasing tendencies the results of technology implementation readiness of factors at the assessment would be used. The list of priority low probability of technologies assessed according to the following the occurrence of criteria: sustainable development (embracing the these tendencies sub-criteria of ecological, economic and social effects) and the critical nature of technologies including the level of the interdisciplinarity of the solutions were applied.7 (Fig. 3)Fig. 2. Types of scenarios of technological development – key factors’ development tendencies andthe probability of the occurrence of this tendencies taken into account. Technologies with ascribed level of priority wereSource: Author then compared with the results of the assessment of technological readiness of detailed research directions, within which incremental and emerging technologies had been identified (Fig. Technologies Prioritisation 4). Technological readiness level concerned the Criterion: Criterion: Critical possibility of undertaking or continuing the activity Sustainable Nature of List of Priority in the selected research direction, which should result Development Technology Technologies in a design of advanced incremental and emerging technologies. It was assumed that technologies at EXPERT Economic Interdisciplinarity Level of the commercialisation and diffusion level, crucial 9 PANELS Effects Technology List of for the development of competitiveness, and the Incremental Technologies incremental technological progress, together with Ecological Effects the generic technologies of basic importance for the creation of technological competitiveness List of guaranteeing technological progress were the Social Effects Emerging technologies of high technological readiness. Technologies In order to simultaneously consider the level of priority and technological readiness of priority technologies, a matrix, was designed whichFig. 3. Outline of technologies prioritisation hypothetically allowed to identify the followingSource: Author lists of technologies: • High-priority technologies with a high level of technological readiness, Assessment of List of Technologies Technological with High Level • High-priority technologies with a low level of Readiness of Technological technological readiness, Readiness • Low-priority technologies with a high level of technological readiness, EXPERT Assessment of technological • Low-priority technologies with a low level of PANELS readiness of particular technological readiness. research directions for commercial The matrix for the area of environmental application technologies is presented in (Fig. 5). The individual quarters of the matrix hold the technologies 7 Mazurkiewicz A., Sacio-Szymańska B., Poteralska B. Symela K.: „MapyFig. 4. Outline of technology readiness assessment technologii w obszarze zrównoważonego rozwoju” report from theSource: Author realisation of the „Advanced Industrial and Ecological Technologies for the Sustainable Development of Poland”, Radom 2010.
  10. 10. January 2012 experts insights (research directions) complying with the priority Fig. 5. Juxtaposition of priority level and technological readiness of selected technologies and technological readiness levels. (T1I, T2I… - incremental technologies; T1E, T2E, …- emerging technologies) Source: Author Within the framework of this stage of the research 100 in the domain of environmental technologies, the Stabilisation Scenario-High Priority Dynamic Development Scenario following results were confronted: 90 Technologies • list of technologies of high priority and high 80 level of technological readiness and 70 PRIORITY LEVEL technologies and research directions identified T3E in the dynamic development scenario built with 60 T T 2E the consideration of development tendencies 4E T 141 T 50 1E of key factors together with the probability of T 10I the occurrence of these tendencies; 40 T T T 13I T 12I 8I 3I T T 1I 11P T • list of technologies of low priority with 30 T 6I T T 21 7I 9I high level of technological readiness and T 5I T 4I T 20 Proecological 21 technologies and research directions identified Technologies in the stabilisation scenario built with the 10 Stabilisation scenario - technologies with consideration of development tendencies of Decline Scenario high level of technological readiness 0 key factors together with the probability of the 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 occurrence of these tendencies TECHNOLOGICAL READINESS LEVEL The results obtained, formed the basis for the creation of technological progress scenarios Dynamic Development Scenario of sustainable development and the difficulty to identifying priority research directions For Environmental Technologies estimate ecological advantages the implementation and technologies, for which there are great The research carried out in the domain of of these technologies would bring. In many cases,10 development possibilities in Poland and whose environmental technologies is mainly determined this attitude leads to growing ignorance and development is determined by the changes by the research directions in other scientific areas, sometimes even the lack of society’s approval of tendencies of key factors influencing the including: material technologies, nanotechnologies, towards spending public funds on the development dynamics of the R&D work in the area of mechatronic technologies, test and research and implementation of these technologies. environmental technologies. At the time of their apparatus and technical and environmental safety Usually that happens in the case of technologies building, it was assumed that scenarios should technologies, as well as the necessity to comply whose development and implementation result take into consideration the research directions with legal regulations concerning environmental from the necessity to adjust national economy to and within their framework the technologies protection. international requirements and legislation whose development and implementation would concerning protection of the environment result in a higher technological level and the Environmental technologies are characterised and the climate. The development of advanced growth in competitiveness of businesses in by a high level of interdisciplinarity, technical environmental technologies has one extremely which innovative environmental solutions are advancement and flexibility as well as high crucial effect, though – it leads to the rationalisation applied. Additionally, the identification and complexity and multiscale. Emerging technologies of the use of raw materials and resources, which is the forecasting of needs concerning knowledge, skills that are currently being developed in this scientific requisite of a permanent sustainable development and competences necessary for the creation and domain are innovations creating the possibility to of the economy. application of new technologies, as well as the rank high on competitiveness. The examples of development of recommendations for future such technologies include: technologies of biomass Stabilisation Scenario For occupations, qualifications and modular system liquidation and gasification, production of energy Environmental Technologies solutions are also of great importance, as they from waste, recycling of resources and materials and The development of environmental technologies is result in an effective organisation and realisation of technologies of co-combustion of scrap biomass characterised by low dynamics and the continuation educational processes and the retraining of with conventional fuels. The development of of research activity in existing directions leading personnel to meet the requirements of advanced highly effective technologies of gaining energy from to the improvement of already known solutions. industrial technologies. reusable sources is characterised by its growing The technologies analysed are of average priority importance among emerging environmental for sustainable development and have either high On the basis of the confrontation of technologies technologies. or average level of technological readiness. Many assessed according to the priority and technological solutions are designed and implemented to meet readiness criteria with technologies and research As far as environmental technologies are concerned, the norms and standards concerning environmental directions indicated by the scenarios considering the ratio of costs to immediate financial benefits is protection and their character is rather temporary the development tendencies of key factors and the higher when taking short term perspective into probability of the occurrence of these tendencies consideration. This apparent dominance of costs 8 Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A., Łabędzka J. Zintegrowane scenariusze rozwoju technologicznego. In: Mazurkiewicz in the area of environmental technologies, the over the effects mainly stems from the public’s A., Poteralska B. (red.) Zaawansowane technologie przemysłowe i dynamic development and the stabilisation scenario habit to concentrate on short term objectives, ekologiczne dla zrównoważonego rozwoju kraju. Wybrane zagadnienia. were built8 . lack of consideration towards greater time scale Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, Radom 2011.
  11. 11. January 2012 experts insightsand incidental. Long term ecological actions physics, material engineering, ecology, Proposed detailed research directions in thefor the protection of the environment for future biotechnology and nanotechnology for instance, strategic programme “Innovative Systems forgenerations are of secondary importance and the are needed for the development of environmental the Technical Support of the Developmentemphasis is put on the development of technologies technologies. The existing educational system of Economy” correspond with the directionsthat enable the removal and repair of already focuses on formal education, which results in identified as priority directions in the sectoralexisting environmental damage. the lack of legal and institutional regulations and foresight project. Some examples of the correlation procedures that would acknowledge the process of of research directions is presented in (Tab. 1).The most intensive is the development of informal and non-formal education of the employee The thematic area of environmental technologiesincremental solutions directed at the improvement within or outside their work place. Promotion of ranks high on importance within the frameworkof existing solutions exercised through the continuing environmental education needs to be of the strategic research programme. The growinggradual implementation of novel ideas based on accompanied by its development consisting of importance of this particular thematic area withinnew knowledge. Incremental research concerns the creation and reorganisation of the continuing the strategic programme is also confirmed by thethe advancement of current technologies or education centres offering educational programmes increasing role of the aspects of energy saving andtheir implementation in new application areas. suitable for the needs and capabilities of various new, ecological sources of its acquisition and theTechnologies developed include technologies for specialists. Moreover, it is important to extend question of environment protection and technicalthe rationalisation of the use of materials and the educational field of activity of technology safety to maintain economic growth according toresources, with greatest attention paid to waste transfer offices (i.e. technology parks, technology the principles of sustainable development, whichrecycling and utilisation technologies, technologies transfer offices, entrepreneurship incubators) has been emphasised in the new developmentof textile and thermoplastic polymer composites and incorporate into their curricula professional strategy of the European Union – “Europe 2020.”recycling, technical systems for the support of training courses for the needs of development andenvironmental maintenance of operating fluids, implementation of innovative technologies. Furthermore, as a result of conducted research,application of membrane systems in recycling and a thematic scope for the strategic programmeutilisation technologies for aqueous operating “Advanced Technologies of the Future forfluids and sewage, technologies of production and Implementation of the scenarios in Sustainable Development” encompassing theregeneration of elements of machines and devices the form of strategic programmes subjects directed at the development of research inwith the application of polymer nanocomposites. The priority research directions and incremental priority directions in the long (10-15 years) run wasBesides, technologies of co-combustion of and emerging technologies identified in the identified. Within the framework of the programme,flammable waste with conventional fuels and scenarios form the scope for future thematic areas emerging technologies, indicated in the scenario 11methods of stabilisation and improvement that should be considered for realisation within of the dynamic development within the sectoralof operational properties of biofuels. This is the framework of research projects, especially in foresight project, will be mainly considered.accompanied by the development of logistics the form of national strategic programmes. It issystems for waste and energy management including: assumed, that there will be two kinds of research It has been assumed that the proposed structure ofsystems for on-line measurement of volatile and projects conducted in the future: highly specialist the strategic programme will only encompass thosesolid products of combustion and devices for programmes limited to the selected thematic area, thematic areas which are of key importance fromtheir realisation. Parallel is the development of characterised by a very high level of minuteness the perspective of the current strategic documentsproduction technologies for maintenance materials of details and a close participation of scientific of the European Union, including “Europe 2020”with increased ecological qualities, among which organisations specialising in that particular field, Strategy, complying with the priorities concerningthere are specialised ecological operating fluids on and interdisciplinary programmes covering vast the support for power engineering industry,the basis of non-toxic, biodegradable natural and thematic areas penetrating one another. The success technical and environmental protection andsynthetic components. of research and scientific institutions will depend on safety. Among the thematic areas proposed in the their participation in both of those types of projects strategic9 programme, there are groups particularlyQualifications and Competences as well as on the development and implementation connected with ecology: innovative energy systemsDevelopment Scenarios of effective procedures of research results transfer and the rationalisation of the usage of resources;Environmental technologies, rationalisation of the and industrial deployment in the form of advanced environmental protection and technical safetyuse of raw materials and resources and reusable process and product technologies. sources are an important element ofknowledge transfer to education, which facilitates Selected priority research directions andcountry’s sustainable development. Constant technologies have been included in the “Innovative Conclusionsprogress characterises the process of gaining Systems for the Technical Support of Sustainable Due to great significance of the effectiveknowledge, skills and competences in the domain Development of Economy” approved for realisation development and implementation of environmentalof environmental technologies. Technical faculties in the 2010-1014 period within European Structural technologies, as well as the necessity to createshould offer complex, interdisciplinary vocational Funds co-financing the Innovative Economy technological solutions in this area, there is a needtraining mingled with knowledge of specialised Operational Programme, within which the research for the identification of priority research areas andinnovative environmental technologies, as well realised focuses on incremental technologies their correlation in accordance to the researchas knowledge of the environment itself and its development in a short (3-5 years) run. The potential of the entire country, region and theprotection complying with the principles of technologies considered for realisation within strategic research institute. For that, methodologysustainable development. this programme are the incremental technologies of identifying and selecting priority research identified in the stabilisation scenario.Specialised and interdisciplinary knowledge 9 EUROPE 2020. A European strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, Communication from the Commission, Brussels, 3.3.2010,together with the latest knowledge of chemistry, KOM(2010).
  12. 12. January 2012 experts insights underlying assumption in the creation of the Tab.1. Examples of the correlation of the scope of the research activity of the sectoral foresight computer system. Moreover, it has been assumed project and the strategic programme in the area of environmental technologies that the computer system will enable the integration Source: Author of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods with expert knowledge. SECTORAL FORESIGHT PROJECT STRATEGIC PROGRAMME “INNOVATIVE The computer system will be equipped with “ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS FOR THE TECHNICAL SUPPORT ECOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR a medium- and long-term forecasting module OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY” THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF that will allow for the automation of the process POLAND” of generating multidimensional spheres of key change factors, ranking technologies according Research Technology Research Technology to their innovativeness and competitiveness, and Direction Group Direction Group identifying the sets of the most probable hypotheses. The expertise of both internal and external experts will be fed into the computer system. Production • Production technologies Development of • Ecological technologies of of specialised, ecological ecological technologies operating fluids maintenance operating fluids based of production, based on natural The designed system will comprise a useful tool materials with higher on natural and synthetic maintenance, recycling and synthetic for the support of generation of future research ecological value components and utilisation of components operating materials directions and technologies and the creation of scenarios of their development. It will assist in • Methods of the the creation and implementation of strategies for utilisation of waste fluids Development of • Methods of the from the processes methods and technical a research organisation in the area of generating utilisation of waste of surface treatment systems increasing fluids from the the directions of the research both in the short and material removal environmental safety processes of surface and the long term. It will also assist in the planned Technologies of the processes in metals treatment and and realised development of its infrastructure rationalisation of the Development of use of raw materials material removal • Application of ecological technologies processes in metals according to the priority research areas selected for and resources of production, membrane systems for the institution. aqueous technological maintenance, recycling • Membrane12 fluids recycling and and utilisation of processes in utilisation, operating materials maintenance, REFERENCES recycling and • Technical systems utilisation of Albright R., Nelson B. Product and Technology Mapping Tools for for the support operating fluids Planning and Portfolio Decision Making. In: Belliveau P., Griffin A., of environmental Somermeyer S. (eds.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2004. maintenance of EUROPE 2020. A European strategy for smart, sustainable and technological fluids inclusive growth, Communication from the Commission, Brussels, 3.3.2010, KOM(2010). Technologies of • Technologies for the Systems and methods • Technologies of recycling Foresight Methodologies, Technology Foresight Initiative, Training waste recycling and recycling of textile and of scrap operating of textile and polymer Module 2, UNIDO, Vienna, Austria, 2004 utilization thermoplastic polymer materials management composite waste composites Gierszewska G., Romanowska M., Analiza strategiczna Application of przedsiębiorstwa, PWE Warsaw 2009. • Catalytic fillings • Biotechnological means biotechnological for bioreactors for Mazurkiewicz A., Mechanisms of knowledge transformation in the of industrial waste processes in industrial technologies of industrial area of advanced technologies of surface engineering. Proceedings purification waste management sewage purification of the 15th IFHTSE & SMT 20 International Federation for Heat Treatment and Surface Engineering Congress, Vienna 2006. Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A., Łabędzka J. Zintegrowane scenariusze rozwoju technologicznego. In: Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B. (ed.) Zaawansowane technologie przemysłowe i ekologiczne dla zrównoważonego rozwoju kraju. Wybrane zagadnienia. Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji – directions has been designed. Its application is On the basis of the state-of-the-art and expert Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, Radom 2011. an effective tool enabling the generation of future analyses, selected research directions and Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Technological innovations research directions with the consideration of their technologies should be continuously updated supporting sustainable development of the economy. Selected problems., w: Memorias de 15 Convencion Scientifica de development and implementation capability, for to incorporate latest trends in technological Ingenieria y Arquitectura, Ministerio de Educacion Superior, 2010, instance through strategic research programmes development, and then introduced for realisation ISBN: 978-959-261-317-1, Cuba realised within European and national funds. An in scientific organisations. The computer system, Mazurkiewicz A., Sacio-Szymańska B., Poteralska B. Symela K.: example of the strategic programme whose subject which is planned to assist the forecasting of „Mapy technologii w obszarze zrównoważonego rozwoju” report from the realisation of the „Advanced Industrial and Ecological matter has been generated with the use of the research directions crucial for the development Technologies for the Sustainable Development of Poland”, Radom methodology developed, is the “Innovative Systems of competitiveness and innovativeness of Polish 2010. of Technical Support for Sustainable Development enterprises and technological institutes, will Phaal R., Farrukh C. J. P., Probert D. R., Fast-start technology of Economy” project coordinated by the Institute support this area of research activity. The roadmapping, Management of Technology, the Key to Prosperity in the Third Millennium, Proceedings of the IAMOT 9th International for Sustainable Technologies-National Research adaptation of technological foresight methods for Conference, Pergamon, 2000. Institute in Radom, Poland, co-financed by the the application in research institutions in order Soares O. D., oth., Innovation and technology: Strategies and European Structural Funds. to identify the probable development tendencies policies, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht 1997. of research directions and technologies was the
  13. 13. January 2012 industry insightsSPEARHEADINGSECOND FRONTIERof Sustainability in Malaysian Rubber Industry BY DATUK DR. SALMIAH AHMAD Director General, Malaysian Rubber Board 13