1. LEADER’SINSIGHTSIn person withDr. Sonia OrtegaEXPERTS’INSIGHTSExploring The NextFrontiersINDUSTRYINSIGHTSThe Mismatch:Finding The Best FitViewpointsWaste not wasted04 20 320601/2013ENABLINGTHE FUTURE:Re-EnergizingMalaysia Educationfrom Cradleto Career
2. ‘ TRANSFORMINGRAIL MOBILITY IN ASIA ’OR ATTACH YOURBUSINESS CARD HEREPlease send me more information on RAILASIA 2013I would like toFor further information, please complete and fax to:+603-2770 5301Exhibit - Please send us a proposal for_______sqm (min. 9 sqm)VisitName: Title:Company’s Name:Address:Tel: Fax:Email:Hosted by: Supported by:Media Partner:For more informationTel: 603-4041 9889 | Fax: 603-2770 5301 | Email: email@example.com | www.railasia.org
3. 01/2013myForesight®features04 282432ADVISoRMohd Yusoff SulaimanEDIToR-IN-CHIEFRushdi Abdul RahimwRITERSDr. Sonia OrtegaDr. Raslan AhmadJasmin BabaAbd. Rahim Abu Talib, Ph.DDr. Badariah SallehPierre RosselCristiano CodagnoneGianluca MisuracaMohd Nurul AzammiNatrah Mohd EmranRuzanna Abdul RahmanAhmad Razif MohamadCoNTRIBUToRSAni Suzila AnasNorsam Tasli Mohd RazaliAmallia Ahmad ZainiMohd Kamaruzaman AbdullahAhmad Nazri AbudinPUBLISHED BYMalaysian Foresight InstituteMIGHT3517, Jalan Teknokrat 563000 Cyberjaya,Selangor Darul Ehsanwww.myforesight.myFoR INQUIRIESmyForesight®Phone : +603 8315 7888Fax : +603 8312 0300E-mail : firstname.lastname@example.orgWebsite : www.myforesight.myDISCLAIMERAny article included in thispublication and/or opinionsexpressed therein do notnecessarily reflect the views of themyForesight®but remain solelythose of the author(s).The Publisher is not to be heldresponsible for any copyrightviolation of articles, which havebeen provided by contributingwritersPP17630/12/2012(031478)01/2013insideEDIToRIAL BoARDEDIToR’S NoTE02 Initial ThoughtsLEADERS INSIGHTS04 In person withDr. Sonia OrtegaEXPERTS INSIGHTS06 Foresight and Policy Modelling on ICT for Governance:Exploring The Next FrontiersINDUSTRY INSIGHTS20 The Mismatch: Finding The Best Fit24 Science Stream Education: What the Future Holds?CoVER SToRY28 Enabling The Future: Re-Energizing Malaysia EducationFrom Cradle To Career31 FoRESIGHT INTERCoNNECT™myForesight®Book ClubVIEwPoINTS32 Waste Not Wasted35 Nurturing Today’s Talent for Future Leaders42 Infographic - Education & Jobs Opportunity
4. 01/2013 myForesight®2InitialThoughtseditor’s noteBYRUSHDI ABDUL RAHIMDirectormyForesight®email@example.comIam glad to say though myForesight® - MalaysianForesight Institute; have been operational as aninstitute for quite some time under the purviewof MIGHT, we have just ﬁnalized the appointmentof the our Governing Board and we are honouredto have the Science Advisor to Malaysia’s PrimeMinister, Prof. Emeritus Dato Sri Dr. Zakri AbdulHamid as our Chairman.We believe that members of the Governing Board(please see the next page) will bring theirextensive experience and insights intomyForesight®’s work where we hope to initiatefuture oriented subject or topic for discussionsand attention.It is the intent of myForesight® to undertakeprojects that will draw upon a range of disciplinesand deal with key issues where science andtechnology oﬀers valuable insights & solutions.We believe that by looking ahead further thanthe conventional norms would enable us to assistthe Government and the relevant stakeholders tostrike the right balance between long-termthinking & tackling issues that needs immediateattention.OurgoalisthatanyForesightprojectmust:• Looking at least 10 years ahead;• Future-oriented and based upon science &technology;• Trans-disciplinary, and policy issues that cutacross ministries/departmental boundaries;• Can produce results that can inﬂuenceGovernment policy;• Will not duplicate work taking place elsewhere;• Has support in and commitment from keystakeholders.myForesight®willbeundertakingthisinthreeways:• Foresight Projects: Looking at major issues10-20 years into the future, which providefutures and evidence analysis to ﬁll a speciﬁcgap in existing policy understanding;• Horizon & Trend Scanning: Framework incontinuous monitoring of trends to pick upweak signals and emerging issues;• Capacity Building: Training, toolkits andnetworkstostrengthenfuturesthinkingcapacityand share best practice within and acrossgovernment.On the subject of capacity building, one of theelement to address in looking at the future will bethemostimportantofall,us;people,thehumanbeing.That is why a lot of eﬀort is being put forth to lookinto this matter, ensuring the future generationsare given the right skills and knowledge.Therefore,forthisparticularedition,wearededicatingalmostthewholemagazinetothesubjectofcapacitybuilding and human capital development.For the past year, we have been fortunate enoughtomeetupwithprominentpersonalitieswhospeakspassionatelyaboutcapacitybuildingandeducation.One of the highlights would have been anenlightening conversation we had with Dr. SoniaOrtega of US, National Science Foundation whohave abundance of experience in tackling theissues of education especially in the subject ofS.T.E.M (Science, Technical, Engineering &Mathematics). You can read about her thoughtson the subject matter in page 4.We are also presenting the viewpoints andarguments about future mismatch of skills andknowledge and the type of jobs that will beavailable for the next 10 years. One of theinteresting things we found is that currently inthe top 20 companies in Malaysia less than 40%of the top management are of the technicalbackground. This begets the question “whatcareer prospect are there for science students?”since we are pushing for more enrolment in thescience stream.As usual, we hope you ﬁnd the magazinebeneﬁcial and thought provoking.We expect you to have your opinion on certainmatters. We want to hear them. We welcomeyour feedback and contributions.“Greetings & Salutations,It is my pleasure to bring you the latest edition of myForesight® magazine, the first one for 2013.We hope your 2012 has been a good one and in hindsight would enable you to undertakeforesight with gusto.”We believe that bylooking ahead furtherthan the conventionalnorms would enableus to assist theGovernment to strikethe right balancebetween long-termthinking & tacklingissues that needimmediate attention
5. 01/2013myForesight®1‘ ‘A knowledge-interfacinginstitute, that promotes and harnessstrategic national development throughforesight methodology and initiativesVision:To be a renowned foresight center that integratesidea and promotes networking across a broadspectrum of individual futurists, private think tanksand academic establishmentsMission Statement:To be a Referral center for Foresight and future studiestowards a sustainable future for the country by connectingresearchers & decision makers in developing a vision ofthe future for the country and providing brain trust &decision support on future oriented areas and activities.myForesight®3Prof. Emeritus Dato’ Sri DrZakri Abdul HamidScience Advisor toThe Prime Ministerof MalaysiaMohd Yusoff SulaimanPresident & Chief Executive OfficerMIGHTMd Arif MahmoodVice PresidentCorporate Strategic PlanningPETRONASTan Sri Datuk Dr.Ahmad Tajuddin AliChairmanUEM Group BerhadDato’ Sri Dr. Halim ShafieChairmanTM BerhadChairmanBoard MembersMalaysian Foresight Institute
6. 01/2013 myForesight®4leader’s insightsDr. Sonia ortegaIn person withRole of Science in High TechnologyDevelopment in MalaysiaThe role of technology and the developmentof Science go hand-in-hand. We cannot haveone without the other. Science and Technology(S&T) is the future. Their contributions shouldbe monitored and channelled to the right sectors.S&T is an essential component to move a countryforward.Malaysia’s education scenarioMalaysia has its own standard National EducationSystem which should be complimented.Withoutthe national curriculum, the implementation ofS&T education programmes would bedependent on individual states that have theirown curriculum, making it diﬃcult not just to thestudents but teachers and parents too.Malaysia’s S&T education path is on the righttrack, there are a lot of potential in numerousways to move forward in S&T innovation, and Ihave been very pleasantly surprised with someof the things that I have seen in Malaysia.Instilling the interest of S&TThere are several components needed to beincluded in S&T education. One:You need a goodcurriculum. A good national curriculum wouldmake it easier to promote S&T education toeveryone because it is standardized. Two:Teachers need to be well prepared in terms ofknowledge and material to enable them to teachand encourage students. Three: We need to ﬁnda way to evaluate what the children are learningin order to assess the eﬃciency of the teachingskills. These three components have to worktogether.Therehastobewillingness.S&Teducationneeds to be put forward as a national prioritybecauseitisimportantforthecountry’sdevelopment.Another important consideration is how S&T istaught. There has to be an engagement. It is notjust about learning and memorizing facts.Youngpeople, i.e. students, have to be engaged in theeducation, involving them in the process of S&Tand allow them to experience hands-on activities.Malaysia has a lot of programmes that aremoving forward with this approach, and has hadso for many years. It is also pleasing to ﬁnd outthat not only Malaysia but the whole region hasalso been engaging S&T education, and there isa movement towards the hands-on method ofteaching and learning science.Critical Issues in EducationCritical issues in education are subjective. Ingeneral, the beginning is most critical. The basicessence is to engage young people who want tolearn.Then it can be sub-categorised into diﬀerentgroups – Primary Education, Formal Education,Informal Education, College Education, GraduateEducation, and Science Education – with manydiﬀerent aspects depending on how you want touphold the education structure.Who is responsible?Inthe20thcenturythepeoplewhotrainthestudentsare the professors and teachers. However, in the21stcentury,thereisawideaccesstoinformationandthe young people today have more accessibilityto information. Nowadays, there is no excuse forthe young people to be ignorant about sciencecareers because they can simply‘GOOGLE’it. It iseveryone’sresponsibility,thewholesociety–parents,teachers, and the young people – to learn howto look for information because it is so mucheasier than back in the days when looking forinformation means having to go to the library,and even not knowing where to start.OnteachingasasecondarycareerpathIt is unfortunate that teaching is quite commonlythought of as a secondary job.This problem existsin many other places as well. Only a few countriesuphold the teaching profession as a highlyrespected profession, where teachers are verywell respected. This is not the way it ought to be.After all, teachers are responsible in educating thenext generation. Thus, it is very unfortunate tonot be able to raise the teaching profession to ahigher standard with salary. If that is done, theteaching profession would be more attractiveand competitive, and the incentive to be ateacher would be higher.The right time to train individualsfor their careersThe right time to start educating individuals iswhen they are in middle-school: 12-15 years ofage. This is when they start to either gain or loseinterest in science. We notice that a lot of youngchildren are interested in science but, as theygrow to adolescence age, they lose it. However,if the interest in science is retained, the next stepis when they start developing into it. This is thetime to be constantly encouraging children tolook forward to science and communicate withother people in the ﬁeld to know the possibilitiesand options of science. The interested childrenwould be asking lots of related questions like:S&T is an essentialcomponent to movea country forward.
7. 01/2013myForesight®5leader’s insights“What are the opportunities they have when theygraduate?”, “What kind of jobs?”, “How muchmoney will they make?”and so on.We need moreprogrammes that help young science studentssee the opportunities available to them and thecompetition they would face at an early age.Arts Stream over Science Stream?This issue does not concern Malaysia alone butmany other countries as well. People do notknow their career options when they venture intoscience.They think that the only career in scienceis as a professor at the university or a researcher.They do not know that science education canbring about careers in industries and non-proﬁtorganizations as consultants, entrepreneurs andso on. In my view, these people don’t know theoptions available, therefore they do not considergoing into the science stream because they thinkscience stream provides limited career choice.The industries should also be involved along theway. Some companies have vested interest in thiscourse because they also want people to jointhem in the future. It would be good if theindustries support some of the initiatives sincethe return of investment will aﬀect them,especially in the aspects of future developmentof human capital. It is important to have peoplewho are prepared and ready to work. It beneﬁtsindustries to support science, not only for theirown advantages but, to create a better web,partnership with universities, schools and thecommunity.The top 10 jobs in 2010 did not existin 2001: Are we preparing studentson the right education track?Some of the top careers of today did not existbefore, but there are a few basic elements thatcan lead the young people on the right track andprepare them for the future careers. One of themis to be a problem solver: Knowing how to solveproblems is a skill that can be applied to anycareer, whether in business or science. Next skillthat needs to be acquired is critical thinking as itis essential for decision making. Then the skill ofleadership is important for those who are in theleadership roles because it teaches how to lead.Teambuilding skill is also important as it allowsindividuals to adapt and work in teams. The lastelement is communication skill, i. e. to be able toconvey the appropriate message or informationin the right manner.Thesecriticalskills:Problemsolving,criticalthinking,leadership, teambuilding, and communicationare required in any line of career. If students areeducated in critical skills and technical skills,whether in accounting, business, science, orengineering, they are better prepared for thefuture, and even in careers that do not exist yetbecause those critical skills are helpful regardlessof the type of jobs they would be engaged in.To be exam-oriented or not to beThere is the tendency to over test students, notonly in Malaysia but, in several other parts of theworld as well. So much of emphasis is put on thetest that teachers end up teaching for thepurpose of the test. Teachers want their studentsto pass the test as it is used to measure theircapabilities. This could prevent some teachersfrom engaging in more creative ways of teachingas they are afraid that engaging in inquiry-basedor place-based methods might lead to theirstudents to not getting good results or even failthe test, and this would reﬂect poorly on them.In my opinion too much test prevents creativity.Science education challenge:US case studyIn terms of science education, the USA is facingproblems with teachers insuﬃciently trained andchildren learning science merely to pass tests. Onthe other hand, graduates who are training tobecome scientist lack the critical skills. In order tosolve this problem, the former Director of theNational Science Foundation (NSF) decided tocombine these two factors together by havingthe students of science and engineering link withelementary and secondary schools – withchildren and teachers.The basic aim of the link is to beneﬁt the children,teachers and graduate scientists. It would enablethe children to obtain a hands-on approachtowards the process of science – to engage thechildren in science. Second, it would provideteachers with the tools and backgroundnecessary for better teaching application for theinfusion of sciences into the classrooms.Third, thelink allows scientist graduates to learn criticalskills, for instance, translate their own researchinto a simpler medium for the children and bringtheir research into the classrooms. This systemwas designed to be a win-win situation that helpseverybody: Helps teachers acquire moreknowledge in science and enable them toencourage and excite the children by showingthem career opportunities in science; and toprepare graduate scientists for any career path,and to be able to communicate and gain thesupport of the public towards their researches.The engagement between universities andschool system would open up the bridge ofcommunication between them. The schoolsystem will learn that universities have resourcesthey can utilise and experts they can approach toseek advice on preparation of lessons; andexpertise and materials if there is need to set uptheir laboratories, or when taking students oneducational ﬁeld trips. This is a complex systemthat is aimed to beneﬁt all participants, givingvery positive experience to everyone.Final WordsIt has been a great opportunity being in Malaysia.The support has been tremendous and verygood. It has given me the exposure to severalpeople and organizations that will add to apositive experience and learn things that I wasnot aware of previously. I do also seeopportunities for future involvements with thenetwork that has been developed here in mystay. I would like to see on-going cooperationbetween USA and Malaysia among scientists,teachers, schools, and the diﬀerent organizations.This opens the opportunity of having Malaysia-USA collaboration. I hope to se more people fromthe USA coming to Malaysia and from Malaysiato the USA, and working together.S&T education needsto be put forward asa national prioritybecause it is importantfor the country’sdevelopment.Critical skills:Problem solving,critical thinking,leadership,teambuilding, andcommunicationare required in anyline of career.Dr. Sonia OrtegaProgram Director,Division of Graduate Education,U.S. National Science Foundation(NSF)U.S. Science Fellow Dr. Sonia Ortega arrived inMalaysia on September 2, 2012 to begin a two-month working visit with the Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT)in connection with the Global Science andInnovation Advisory Council and Ministry of HigherEducation Cradle to Career initiative.Dr. Ortega specializes in STEM (science, technology,engineering and mathematics) education programsattheU.S.NationalScienceFoundation.Sheisespeciallyinterested in developing strategies to engageyoung students in science and technology studies.
8. 01/2013 myForesight®6experts’ insightsFoRESIGHT AND PoLICYMoDELLING oNICT FoR GoVERNANCE:EXPLoRINGTHE NEXTFRoNTIERSCristiano CodagnoneEuropean Commission,Joint Research Centre, Institute forProspective Technological Studies(IPTS) Seville, Spaincristiano.firstname.lastname@example.orgGianluca MisuracaEuropean Commission,Joint Research Centre, Institute forProspective Technological Studies(IPTS), Seville, Spaingianluca.email@example.comBYPierre RosselCollege of Management ofTechnology, EcolePolytechnique Fédérale deLausanne (EPFL), Lausanne,Switzerlandpierre.firstname.lastname@example.org
9. 01/2013myForesight®71 Introduction1.1 Policy resistance in an age of complexityToday, society and the economy are moreinterconnected, unstable, andunpredictable than ever. Furthermore,developments in Information andCommunication Technologies (ICT) arehappening at a very fast pace. The Internetas we know it today is already a remarkablecatalyst for creativity, collaboration andinnovation, providing possibilities thatwould have been impossible to imaginejust two decades ago. If one had predictedthen that, today, children would freelyaccess satellite images of any place onearth, interact with people fromeverywhere and search trillions of data witha simple click on their PCs, one would havebeen taken for fool [Misuraca et al., 2010].Current policymaking strategies and alsothe ways of procuring supporting evidencefor policy decision making are no longerable to cope with complex,multidimensional and highly dynamicsocietal challenges. For more than 60 years,society has largely failed to eradicate criticalsocial challenges despite investingincreasing resources into state policyactivity [Ormerod, 2010]. It appears thatpolicy resistance is responsible for thesefailures. Policy resistance occurs when anintended policy outcome is defeatedintentionally or unintentionally by complexand dynamic elements, agents, factors, ﬁrstorder and second order feedback loops,and so on. The causes are typicallymultidimensional and found throughouthistory [Sterman, 2006].On the other side, we now have at ourdisposal a radical increase in computingpower along with outstandinglywidespread distribution of networkedcommunities. The possibility of collectingand processing huge amounts of data atmoderate costs was unthinkable only adecade ago. These developments have ledto the emergence of futuristic visions, suchas ‘singularity’ which suggests thatcomputers will exceed human cognitivecapabilities and an ‘intelligence explosion’which could, among other things, prolongand improve quality of life [Kurzweil, 2005].However, current tools and approaches forpolicydesign,implementationandevaluationare ill-suited to capturing this complex andinterconnected future. Moreover, they arebased on an abstract and unrealistic visionof the human being: rational (utilitymaximising), average (not heterogeneous),atomized (not connected), wise (thinkinglong-term), often highly simpliﬁed(complexity denial) and politicallycommitted [Piniewski, Codagnone andOsimo, 2011 forthcoming].In short, the intellectual framework uponwhich policy making rests is no longeradequate. Our claim is therefore that aparadigmatic shift in developing a newpolicy modelling framework is required.However, this is not simply a matter of morecomputing power and more data. Multiplelongstanding challenges may also need tobe addressed.Critics however may wonder if the inherentcomplexity of our free living systemsincreased. Is todays society and economymore unstable and unpredictable thanexperts’ insightsAbstractThis paper is in part based upon the result of the foresightexercise based on scenario design conducted in 2010 by theInformation Society Unit of the JRC IPTS as part of theCROSSROAD Project – A Participative Roadmap for ICT researchon Electronic Governance and Policy Modelling. Overall, theresearch aimed to push the boundaries of traditionaleGovernment research and help resolve the complex societalchallenges Europe is facing by the application of ICT-enabledinnovations and collaborative policy modelling approaches,whichincludetheharnessingofcollectiveintelligence,agent-basedmodelling, visual analytics and simulation, just to mention a few.By looking at the future of ICT-enabled governance through fourthought-provoking visionary scenarios, the research helpspolicymakers to foresee how European society could becometwenty years from now, thanks to advances in ICT for governanceand policy modelling. The scenarios, their formulation andinterpretation,exposethegapstherearetodayinresearchandwhatneeds to be addressed in order to enable better governance andconstruct a more open, innovative and inclusive digital Europetomorrow. The study thus draws a framework for analysis ofcurrent and future challenges in ICT for governance and policymodelling and of what the resulting implications for citizens,business and public services would be.By combining scenarios design with gap analysis and technologyroadmapping, the research identiﬁed a set of Grand Challengesto deﬁne the Roadmap on the future research on ICT forgovernance and policy modelling. Building on the ﬁndings ofthis research activity, which links very diverse researchdisciplines with practitioners views and policy makers’concerns,through a multi-stakeholder and participatory approach, thepaper elaborate further on highlighting some paradoxes ofcurrent ICT-enabled societal modelling eﬀorts, and address theissues of measuring and modelling of the Information Society.In doing so, the paper attempts to link foresight techniques withpolicy modelling approaches and to assess their implications forthe future Digital Europe 2030. Innovation, sustainability,economic recovery and growth will in fact depend more andmore on the ability of policy makers to envision clearly andeﬀectively both the root causes and the possible solutions tocomplex, globalised issues.The paper concludes presenting some policy and researchchallenges that policy makers will be confronted to inimplementing the Digital Agenda for Europe, which aims toincrease growth and competitiveness of the EU in the fastevolving global landscape, and address the grand challenges ourworld is confronted with today. Going further, the paperproposes some suggestions for future research oriented towardscombining foresight techniques with policy modelling in searchof an integrated and distributed policy intelligence paradigm.Keywords: Foresight, Policy Modelling, ICT, GovernanceDisclaimer: The views expressed in this article are purely thoseof the authors and may not in any circumstances be regardedas stating an oﬃcial position of the European Commission.The pace at which theelements of the visionsunfold will, however, beinfluenced by the speed ofchange of the overalltechnological landscapeand societal context.
10. 01/2013 myForesight®8experts’ insightsever? Certainly changes are ubiquitous.Theworld is increasingly interconnected via theInternet and other new media. Most wouldagree that complexity and unpredictabilitywere also robust thirty or forty years ago. Asa matter of fact, since 1957 the neoclassicalhomo oeconomicus approach (thatchoices are made based on fully rationalhuman) (see Herbert Simon, 1957), hasbeen challenged1. In 1985 the Americansociologist Marc Granovetter ,advancing beyond his ﬁrst 1973 classic onthe ‘strength of weak ties’ [Granovetter1973], argued that rationality is sociallyembedded and not exercised in a socialvacuum. In other words, we act accordingto the socially shaped structure ofopportunity we face, using and beinginﬂuenced by the network of socialrelations into which we are embedded2.These important social pressures may gounobserved and not be considered inpolicy design, implementation andevaluation thus enabling a mountingsystemic policy resistance and defeatingthe policies using only the traditional toolsof policy making such as regulation andincentives3. In other words, when changingtastes and preferences are inﬂuenced bysocial interaction, a simple‘stick and carrot’incentive based policy or regulation may beimpotent in eﬀecting desired change. Inaddition, restricting full freedom of choicemay backﬁre and trigger unintentionalsystemic resistance to the policy. However,opportunities for policy-making may beenhanced precisely because we do not actstrictly according to instrumental rationality.Our actions are not always self-interestedyet may still lead to contributions that canbe harnessed to achieve policy goals.Citizens can be unobtrusively andintelligently helped to make optimalchoices supporting both their individualwell-being as well as group well-beingpolicy goals. In addition to this, a numberof technological, economic, societal,political and environmental trends anddevelopments aﬀect all countries as well asmost policy domains. In order to deal withthe challenges associated to thesedevelopments a new culture of future-oriented thinking is needed [Havas et al,2010]. Our claim is thus that combiningforesight and ICT-enabled modellingtechniques in support of governance andpolicy-making may be useful to improvepolicy intelligence. More speciﬁcally,embeddingforesightmethodologiesin policymodelling techniques may lead us to a newgeneration of policy making, so to avoidthe often shortsighted and piecemealapproach of current decision-making thatis usually incremental and step-by-step, anddoes not pay suﬃcient attention tochanges intheenvironmentandcross-policydimensions.1.2 ICTforGovernanceandPolicyModelling:a possible solution?Given the signiﬁcance of globalisation,increasing technological and organizationalchanges as well as the even increasingimportance of learning capabilities andapplications of knowledge, our futurecannot be predicted by any sophisticatedmodel in a suﬃcient and reliable way[Havas et al, 2010]. As for policy-makingitself, there is a widening gap between thespeed, complexity and uncertainty oftechnological and socio-economicchanges, on the one hand, and the abilityto devise appropriate policies, on the other.Even the credibility of science is somewhatfading. Scientiﬁc research no longer standsfor true in itself and the objectiveness ofpolicies based on models is questioned asscientists and modellers themselves areknown to have diﬀerent opinions andmodels often come to diﬀerent conclusionson the same issues.Within this evolving context, the EuropeanCommission launched in 2009 a new areaof research on ICT for governance andpolicy modelling. According to theEuropean Commission’s 7th FrameworkProgramme (Work Programme ICT 2009-2010) [European Commission, DG Research,2009a], ICT for governance and policymodelling joins two complementaryresearch ﬁelds, which have traditionallybeen separate: the governance andparticipation toolbox which includestechnologies such as mass conversationand collaboration tools; and the policymodelling domain which includesforecasting, agent-based modelling,simulation and visualisation.These ICT toolsfor governance and policy modelling aimto improve public decision-making in acomplex age, enable policy-making andgovernance to become more eﬀective andmore intelligent, and accelerate thelearning path embedded in the overallpolicy cycle [European Commission, DGINFSO – 2008a].Within this framework, in 2010 theEuropean Commission funded a SupportAction to design the Future ResearchRoadmap on this domain: CROSSROAD -AParticipative Roadmap for ICT research onElectronic Governance and PolicyModelling, aiming at deﬁning a sharedvision, able to inspire collaborative,interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholdersresearch. CROSSROAD in fact links verydiverse research disciplines withpractitioners views and policy makers’concerns, through a multi-stakeholder andparticipatory approach and provides anuseful tool for the support and orientationof future policy-making.Overall, the CROSSROAD research roadmapaims to push to new outreach options theboundaries of traditional eGovernmentresearch and help resolve the complexsocietal challenges Europe is facing byapplying ICT-enabled innovations andcollaborative policy modelling approaches,which include the harnessing of collectiveintelligence, agent-based modelling, visualanalytics and simulation, just to mention afew [CROSSROAD, 2010a, b]. In this context,CROSSROAD aimed at building aconsensus-driven Research Roadmap toconsolidate and advance research in a new,yet highly fragmented, domain and toprovide strategic directions for the future ofresearch in ICT for governance and policymodelling. The main goal of theCROSSROAD project has been to drive theidentiﬁcation of emerging technologies,new governance models and novelapplication scenarios in the ﬁeld ofgovernance and policy modelling, leadingto the structuring of a beyond the state-of-the-art research agenda, fully embraced byresearch and practice communities. Insummary, CROSSROAD identiﬁed andcharacterized the key research challenges1. Simon introduced the concept of ‘bounded rationality’,arguing that many times we do not search for optimalsolutions but are content with satisfying ones given theboundaries we face. Such a boundary is lack of perfectinformation coupled with the incapacity to fully processthe information we possess (“a wealth of informationproduces a scarcity of attention”).2. More recently these insights have been furtherdeveloped in the brilliant work of behavioural economistsand economic psychologists (see for example, Bardsley,2010;Kaheman,1999and2003;Plous,1993;andSmith,2008)3. Regulation can forbid certain behaviours, such assmoking in public places. Financial incentives can alterthe behaviour of individuals, by making more costly thedysfunctional ones (i.e. through taxes). Financialincentives are used when market price does not reﬂectpositive or negative externalities: for example, high taxeson fuel and cigarettes are designed to reﬂect theirnegative social externalities for health and environment.
11. 01/2013myForesight®9experts’ insightsin the ﬁeld of ICT for governance and policymodellingandultimatelyoutlinedaconcrete,participative roadmap for future research.2 ConceptualandMethodologicalFramework2.1 Conceptual frame and ObjectivesThe reasons for developing forward-looking analysis to support policy decisionsstem primarily from the emergence ofimportant science and technologyapplications and their wider implications forsociety. Science and technology interactwith society in a complex way and theireﬀects are often neither immediate nordirect, but of second or third order andoccur after a substantial time delay [EC, JRC-IPTS, ESTO, 2001]. More speciﬁcally,technological developments in the domainof governance and policy modellinghappen at a fast pace. Policy-makers cannotaﬀord to wait until situations are clariﬁedand until the eﬀects are evident before theytake decisions. Though tomorrowsdevelopments are uncertain they originatein conditions established today. Hence,there is an important need for policy-makers to scope the impacts of science andtechnology and how they may develop [DaCosta et al. 2003].The history of forward-looking analysis andfuture studies spans decades [EC-JRC-IPTS,FOREN, 2001] and three main areas offuture-oriented technology analysis can beidentiﬁed [Cahill and Scapolo, 1999]:technology forecasting analyses theconditions and potential of technologicaldevelopment within a concrete framework;technology assessment supports decision-making by generating technology orproblem-speciﬁc options arising from newdevelopments; and technology foresightaddresses the impacts of technologicaldevelopment on a broader scale. Howeveruseful these methods may be, the growingknowledge-intensity, the pace oftechnological and societal change and theincreasingly distributed and networkedcharacter of the economy and ofgovernance processes cannot be exploredusing only technology-oriented futurestudies [Compano and Pascu, 2005]. Amore comprehensive approach is required.Designing scenarios relies on foresightmethods, which are based on a muchbroader concept than technologyassessment and forecasting. It calls upon awide range of themes and stakeholderperspectives, in order to examine the socialand economic aspects of futuretechnological developments. The processis interactive, open-ended and bottom-upand paves the way to identifying possiblebreakthroughs and exploring implicationsand hypotheses that will support thedeﬁnition of strategic directions and policy-relateddecision-making[EC-JRC-IPTS,2003c].The objective of this paper is therefore topresent and discuss the main ﬁndings ofthe scenarios for Digital Europe 2030designed by IPTS as part of theCROSSROADs project and based on aforesight exercise which included: 1) ananalysis of the key areas of expectedchange in the domain of ICT-enabledgovernance and policy making to beplaced in the context of various diﬀerentfuture scenarios, and 2) envisioning, foreach scenario, the risks and opportunitiesoﬀered by ICT tools for governance andpolicy modelling techniques, as regardstheir contribution to overall EU policy goals.Based on these ﬁndings, aimed to explorepossible alternative futures in governanceand policy making, the paper elaboratesfurther exploring new research frontiersembedding foresight methodologies in thefutureexpectedmainstreamingofparticipatoryICT tools and policy modelling techniques.2.2 Methodological approachThis paper is partly based on the results ofthe research carried out by CROSSROAD, anFP7 Support Action to design the FutureResearch Roadmap in the domain of ICT forgovernance and policy modelling. ThisAction aimed to provide strategic directionsand deﬁne a shared vision, able to inspirecollaborative, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder research. In this context, aparticipatory foresight exercise has beenconducted outlining a set of scenarios onhow governance and policy modelling,supported and enhanced by the use of ICT,could develop by 2030 in order to identifythe research needs and policy challengesto be addressed. To design such scenarios,an analysis of future needs, risks andopportunities under diﬀerent conditionswas conducted based on the current stateoftheartofthedomain[CROSSROAD,2010a].The scenario design exercise resulted infour diﬀerent scenarios which explore howgovernance and policy making coulddevelop by 2030. The scenarios weredeveloped by means of narration(storytelling) of possible future outcomes inselected key domains of European societywhere the development of ICT tools forgovernance and policy modellingtechniques are likely to have a majorimpact. By looking at the future of ICT-enabled governance through four thought-provoking visionary scenarios, the researchhelps policymakers to foresee whatEuropean society could become twentyyears from now, thanks to advances in ICTfor governance and policy modelling. Thescenarios, their formulation andinterpretation, expose the gaps that existtoday in research and what needs to beaddressedinordertoenablebettergovernanceand construct a more open, innovative andinclusive digital Europe tomorrow.Scenarios in fact are systematic visions offuture possibilities. In foresight research, thisusually means plausible possibilities that donot rely on extreme wild cards. [Miles, 2003].They are used as tools for political orstrategic decision making and to explorethe future impact of particular decisions ordevelopments [Janseen et al, 2007]. Morespeciﬁcally, Scenario building aims toidentify uncertain developments in thefuture and include them as elements of thescenario narrative [Janseen et al, 2007].However, this exercise’s time horizon (i.e.2030) and the interrelationships betweendiﬀerent developments aﬀecting it (e.g.rapid developments in speciﬁc domains ofICT) make the future of this research areadynamic, complex and uncertain, with littleavailable evidence that can be used topredict or forecast these futures. Thereforethe method of scenario design has beenused for this exercise and it followed acommon 5-step methodology: 1) a trendanalysis to determine the developmentsthat could be key drivers for the future ofICT tools for governance and policymodelling techniques, 2) the selection ofthe scenarios by determining the mainimpact dimensions and key uncertainties,3) writing of the scenarios, 4), identiﬁcationof the implications of the scenarios byparticipants at the Experts Workshop andby consulting the public and 5) derivingconclusionsforpolicyimplicationsandresearchchallenges [EC, JRC-IPTS, FOR-LEARN,2010].Withregardtothemethodologicalapproachinforming the scenarios design exercise, itmust be underlined that foresight researchcomprises many diﬀerent methods thatcan be categorised in several ways.According to Popper [Popper, 2008], thesemethods can be: expert-based, creativity-It is now recognisedthat onlinecollaborationshave the potential totrigger and shapesignificant changesin the way futuresocieties will function
12. 01/2013 myForesight®10based, interaction-based or evidence-based.The objectives of a foresight exerciseand the degree of uncertainty andcomplexity involved guide the selection ofmethodsforaparticularexercise.The Scenario Design adopted as part of theCROSSROADs foresight exercise is: 1)evidence-based, as it builds on the trendsemerging from a policy review and trendsanalysis and the assessment of the state-of-the-art of research in ICT for governanceand policy modelling; 2) expertise-based,as it includes the views of experts gatheredthrough a call for expert contributions andfurther discussion held during an ExpertWorkshop to validate the scenario designframework; 3) interactive, as it incorporatesthe inputs from the Expert Workshop andfrom online public consultation; and 4)creative, as it is based on the creative-thinking that came out of a series ofbrainstorming activities by members of theIPTS lead team and other experts.In this paper we attempt to go furtherexploring how combining foresight andmodelling techniques in a dynamic andparticipatory manner may enhance policyintelligence capabilities and thus lead to abetter policy making process. Foresight infact can help in picking up weak signals:weak but very important hints that afundamental re-assessment and re-alignment of current policies based ontraditional models are needed. In otherwords, our hypothesis is that embeddingforesight techniques in structuredmodelling platforms may serve as a crucialpart of an early warning system, and it canbe used as an instrument for developingpolicy intelligence mechanisms. Infurtherance to this, participative,transparent, forward-looking methods maybe instrumental to support policy-makersin ﬁnding solutions for complex societalchallenges that cannot be addressed bytraditional policy recipes and models basedon evidence from the past. A dynamiccomponent is needed to be introduced inmodelling policies so to take intoconsideration appropriate changes andtrends developments, as well as inputs fromall interested stakeholders that wouldguarantee eﬀective policy implementation.3 Results and Policy implications3.1 The impact of foresight on ICT forgovernance and policy modellingThe scenario design developed as part ofthe CROSSROADs research aims to providea structured framework for analysis ofcurrent and future challenges related toresearchonICTtoolsforgovernanceandpolicymodellingtechniques[CROSSROAD,2010b].The scenario framework proposed waschosen to stimulate further debate andreﬂection on possible, radical alternativescenarios and is, of course, one of severalpossible alternatives. It takes todays worldand constructs images of possible futureworlds, highlighting ways in which keyuncertainties could develop. The aim is topresent clues and key impact dimensions,thus increasing the ability to foreseepossible development paths for theapplication of ICT tools for governance andpolicy modelling techniques.Thus risks canbe anticipated and better preparation canbe made to take advantage of futureopportunities. In turn, this outlines keyelements to be taken into consideration forthe further roadmapping and impactassessmentoffutureresearchinthisdomain.Instead of attempting to forecast severalfuture ICT-enabled scenarios, it was chosento deﬁne four internally consistent – butradical– views of what the future EuropeanInformation Society might look like in 2030.These give four distinctly diﬀerent views ofwhat Europe’s governance and policymaking system could be and what theimplications of each could be for citizens,business and public services.The pace at which the elements of thevisions unfold will, however, be inﬂuencedby the speed of change of the overalltechnological landscape and societalcontext. Considering the unprecedentedgrowth and speed of ICT uptake in severalresearch themes and the rapid emergenceof technologies which enable applicationsfor ICT for governance and policy making(e.g. social computing, mobile technologies,pervasive computing, etc.), we can arguethat the world in 2030 will be radicallydiﬀerent from the world we live in today.Following the mapping and analysis of thestate of the art in the research themesrelated to ICT for governance and policymodelling and the identiﬁcation ofemerging trends, the main impacts onfuture research in this area were deﬁned.These were further reﬁned through ananalysis of existing scenario exercises andthe current shaping of policies andstrategies for the development of theEuropean Information Society. They werethen used to develop the visionaryscenarios framework to depict possiblestate of the future Digital Europe.The uncertainties underlying the scenariodesign are: 1) the societal value system wewill be living in (more inclusive, open andtransparent or exclusive, fractured andrestrictive), and 2) the response (partial orcomplete, proactive or reactive) to theacquisition and integration of policyintelligence techniques in support of dataprocessing, modelling, visualization andsimulationforevidence-basedpolicymaking.experts’ insights
13. 01/2013myForesight®11Accordingly, the key impact dimensionswere classiﬁed on two axes: Degree ofOpenness and Transparency (Axis Y) andDegree of Integration in Policy Intelligence(Axis X) and they go from the extreme 0(Low Openness andTransparency and LowIntegration in Policy Intelligence to 1 (HighOpenness and Transparency and HighIntegration in Policy Intelligence). The axesrepresent ways in which social and policytrends could develop. Based on thisframework scenarios were then developedin a narrative manner (i.e. storytelling style)as descriptions of possible outcomes inselected key areas, representative of theEuropean context, where emerging trendsrelated to the development of ICT tools forgovernance and policy modellingtechniques could have an impact. Thescenarios for the future of governance andpolicy making of Digital Europe 2030 arepresented in Figure 1.The vertical axis indicates the degree ofopenness and transparency in a society, interms of democratic and collaborativegovernance that could be further enabledby ICTs. The most open and transparentsociety would be one where eventraditional state functions are completelyreplaced by non-state actors, throughopening-up and linking public sectorinformation for re-use. Such a society wouldbe characterized by open standards andprinciplesoftransparencyandaccountabilityin governance and public management[Misuraca, 2009b].The openness paradigm is also expected toapplytotheresearchandbusinesscommunitywhich could beneﬁt from open innovationandsocial/businessnetworksofcollaboration,where users are co-creators of productsand services delivered globally via peer-to-peer social networks based on reputationand trust [EC-JRC-IPTS, 2009a]. Animportant aspect will be the regulatory andtechnological solutions, and also the socio-cultural attitudes to the basic digital rightsunderpinning the future InformationSociety. In fact, the concept of openness isnotstrictlyrelatedtotechnologicalsolutions,butrathertosocio-culturalandorganisationalaspectsthatcanbeenabledandsupportedbytechnologicaladvancement[Misuraca,2009a].The horizontal axis concerns Integration inPolicy Intelligence, i.e. the degree ofintegration of data and knowledge and wayin which collaboration between allstakeholders in policy-design and decision-making mechanisms is enabled. Thisinvolves the possibility (enabled by ICTs) tomash-up data and information availablefrom diﬀerent sources in an intelligent way(meaning eﬃcient, eﬀective and able togenerate public value). It also involves theextent to which users, individually or asmembers of formal and informal socialnetworks, can contribute to the co-designof policies, simulating and visualizing theeﬀects of legal and policy decisions, andengage in real-time monitoring and priorassessment of possible expected impactsat local, regional, national and pan-European scale. This axis is also associatedwith the capacity and willingness of policyactors to share power and change decision-making mechanisms in order to facilitatethe redeﬁnition of basic democraticfreedoms in a collaborative fashion. Thiscould go to the extreme of redesigning thetraditional mission of the State and the roleplayed by governance stakeholders. Again,ICTs are not the driving force; rather changeis driven by changes in social values,attitudes and new paradigm shifts in termsof information management, knowledgesharing (experts vs. non expert networks,for example) and allocation of resources[Rossel, Glassey and Misuraca, 2009].In all the scenarios, the world in 2030 isexpected to be radically diﬀerent fromtodays, due to the unprecedented growthand speed of ICT uptake in several ﬁeldsand the related impact ICT tools whichenable governance and policy modellingtechniques may have. Moreover, theinﬂuences and drivers of innovation andrenewal in the public sector, combinedwith increased ﬁnancial pressure on stateswillresultnotonlyinchange,butwillalsoaﬀectthepaceatwhichthestateadaptstothenewenvironment,toitsnewrolesandtoincreasedengagement with stakeholders and users.However, whichever scenario dominates inthefuture,inthecomingyears,conventionalwisdom and familiar governance modelswill be challenged as ICT-based disruptionsimpinge on democratic, consultative andpolicy-making processes. Evidence alreadygathered anticipates that the scope andscale of transformation will have a majorimpact on society [Broster, 2007]. Since2005 there has been a phenomenalgrowth in mass, on-line collaborativeapplications, which has captured theimagination and creative potential ofmillions of participants - particularly theyounger generations. In addition to newforms of leisure pursuits, community-building activities have also entered thepolitical arena as witnessed in a number ofrecent national elections [EC, JRC-IPTS,2009a, 2009c, 2009d].Onlinecommunitiescanleverageconsiderablehuman knowledge and expertise andrapidly build their capacity. At the sameFigure 1 Scenarios for Digital Europe 2030experts’ insightsPre-treatmentOpenGovernanceSelf-ServiceGovernanceLow Integrated Policy IntelligenceHigh Openness & Transparency: Extreme 1Low Openness & Transparency: Extreme 0High Integrated Policy IntelligenceExtreme 0 Extreme 1LeviathanGovernancePrivatisedGovernance
14. 01/2013 myForesight®12time, it is now recognised that onlinecollaborations have the potential to triggerand shape signiﬁcant changes in the wayfuture societies will function. Extrapolationof the present exponential growth leads toscenarios where a very large percentage ofthe population could, if equipped with theappropriate ICT tools and capacities,simultaneously voice opinions and views onmajor and minor societal challenges[Tapscott andWilliams, 2006]. Hence, thesetools herald the transition to a diﬀerent formofdynamicallyparticipativegovernancemodels.While such scenarios are readily imaginable,we also recognise that we currently do nothave appropriate governance models,process ﬂows, or analytical tools with whichto properly understand, interpret, visualiseand harness the forces that could beunleashed. Present government processes(local, regional, national and EU level)provide laws and regulations, interpret anddeﬁne societal norms and deliver societalsupport services.Their legitimacy is derivedthrough democratic processes combinedwith a requirement for transparency andaccountability. In a world that is increasinglyusing non-physical communication andborderless interaction, the traditional rolesandresponsibilities of public administrationswill be subject to considerable change andclassical boundaries between citizens andtheir governments will become increasinglyblurred [Pew Internet, 2010b]. The balanceof power between governments, societalactors and the population will have toadapt to these challenging new possibilities.A key issue will therefore be to develop andapply advanced ICT tools to provide robustsupport to the change process andfacilitate the transition to a new digitally-derived legitimacy. Inherent in this processis the deﬁnition and realisation of new,carefully crafted governance models. By2030, there will no longer be any barrierswhich prevent citizens and businesses fromparticipating in decision making at all levels,and hence the present democratic deﬁcitwill be overcome.Advanced tools – possibly building ongaming and virtual reality technologies -will enable citizens to track the totality ofdecision making processes and see howtheir contributions have been (or are being)taken into account. Current linguistic andcultural barriers will have been largelyovercome through use of semantic-basedcooperation platforms [Broster, 2007].Opinion mining, visualisation and modellinginto virtual reality-based outcomes andscenarios will help to both shape, guideand form public opinion.These ICT-enabledprocesses and tools will have todemonstrate transparency, earn people’strust and be devoid of manipulation. Theoutcomes of such consultative processesshould be faster and more eﬃcient policyrevision and decision making.By 2030, it is expected that transparencyand trust in governance processes andpolicy making will characterise a changedrelationship between governments,businesses and citizens. Governmentstraditionally collect, process and storesigniﬁcant quantities of data. In the future,the relationships will change andbusinesses and citizens will be in a positionto authorise access by governments todata spaces of their own data which theycontrol and update. Such a scenario wouldresult in a private shared space jointlyaccessed by data users and data providers[Reutter, 2008]. Equivalent data spaces willbe adopted by businesses. These sharedspaces will require extremely robust accessrules and procedures and hence newtechnologies and ICT tools that ensureprivacy and data protection. Trust in suchtechnologies will need to be earned [EC,DG-INFSO, 2009].In most organizations, information travelsalongfamiliarroutes.Proprietaryinformationis lodged in databases and analyzed inreports and then rises up the managementchain. Information also originatesexternally: gathered from public sources,harvested from the Internet, or purchasedfrom information suppliers. But thepredictable pathways of information arechanging: the physical world itself isbecoming a type of information system[EC-JRC-IPTS, 2003b]. In addition to this,more objects are becoming embeddedwith sensors and gaining the ability tocommunicate. The resulting informationnetworks promise to create newopportunities, improve governanceprocesses, and reduce the costs and risks ofpolicy decisions. In what is called theInternet of Things, sensors and actuatorsembedded in physical objects -fromroadways to pacemakers- are linkedthrough wired and wireless networks, oftenusing the same Internet Protocol (IP) thatconnects the Internet. These networkschurn out huge volumes of data that ﬂowto computers for analysis.When objects canboth sense the environment andcommunicate, they become tools forunderstanding complexity and respondingto it swiftly. What is revolutionary in all thisis that these physical information systemsare now beginning to be deployed, andsome of them even work largely withouthuman intervention [EC, 2009e].The widespread adoption of the Internet ofThings will take time, but the time line isadvancing thanks to improvements inunderlying technologies. Advances inwireless networking technology and thegreater standardization of communicationsprotocols make it possible to collect datafrom these sensors almost anywhere, anytime. Ever smaller silicon chips for thispurpose are gaining new capabilities, whilecosts, following the pattern of Moore’s Law,are falling. Massive increases in storage andcomputing power, some of it available viacloud computing, make number crunchingpossible on a very large scale and atdecreasing cost [Chui et al., 2010].Research in the area of the Internet ofThings is now strictly linked to advances inthe ﬁeld of Ubiquitous Networks andpervasive computing. Future applicationsare opening up huge opportunities forprivate and public sector organizationsalike. Despite the fact that many of thetechnologies which underpin the futureInternet infrastructure are not new (e.g.Radio Frequency Identiﬁcation, sensornetworks, GRPRS, UMTS-HSDPA and NearField Communication, to mention a few),the conditions for their application mayresult in innovative and disruptive usageson a daily basis in forthcoming years [PewInternet, 2010a]. This innovation couldsupport several public policies, such aslogistics, security, transport, environmentand energy, education and health, andmanyothers[Medaglia,Chicca,Orlando,2010].3.2 Implications of integrated foresight andmodelling in support of governanceand policy makingThe scenarios developed as part ofCROSSROAD served as an input to becompared with the integrated analysis ofthe state of the art in the domain of ICT forgovernance and policy modelling and,based on this comparison, a gap analysishasbeenconductedtoidentifyanexhaustivelist of speciﬁc gaps, where the on-goingexperts’ insightsAdvances in wirelessnetworking technologyand the greaterstandardization ofcommunicationsprotocols make itpossible tocollect data from thesesensors almostanywhere, any time.
15. 01/2013myForesight®13research activities are not going to meetthe long-term needs outlined by the futurescenarios. This exercise resulted in asubstantial contribution to shaping theroadmapping of future research in thedomain thus proving to be useful andneeded. Through a participatory foresightprocesses it was possible to bring togethernot only experts and interested partiesfrom academia and research, industry andgovernment, but also involve directlypolicy-makers and other interestedstakeholders. The documents produced infact were made available online forcomments and feedback and received ageneral appreciation during discussions atspeciﬁc workshops and conferences.This also demonstrated that with such anopen and participatory approach in mind,itisnowincreasinglybeingrecognisedthatanopening of the political process is requiredto ensure robustness and eﬀectiveness ofits outcomes. In recent years in fact we haveassisted to a shift in policy making practicesfrom shaping framework conditions andstructural settings towards strategicdecision making. However, the growingcomplexity of governance and policymaking processes is also recognised.A shift towards evidence-based / model-based policy making is happening, but thisis sometime not supported by eﬀectiveempirical data and conceptually soundunderstanding of the societal implicationsof modelling techniques per-se. As a matterof fact, this shift in policy-making is alsoreﬂected in the evolving practices andinterest in modelling techniques worldwideand in the EU in particular (see for examplethe Climate Change debate or Energy andTransport policy developments). However,in spite of its apparent success, initialenthusiasm is already given way to asigniﬁcant deal of scepticism, both fromtraditional modellers and non-experts,including policy-makers themselves.More recently, and this is consistent with theresults of the CROSSROAD roadmappingexercise, as well as the policy direction theEU is focusing on, it has been recognisedthat the eﬀectiveness of policy dependsalso on the involvement of a broader rangeof stakeholders than those formally incharge of policy decisions.This concept of distributed policy-makingand intelligence originally set out by[Kuhlman, 2001] is de facto at the core ofthe foresight and roadmapping exerciseunderpinning CROSSROAD, where it isassumed that openness of governancesystems and integration of policyintelligence can harness collectiveintelligence, building on the knowledge,experience, and competence of variousactors. Applying this network perspectiveto a distributed platform based on ICT-enabled policy modelling and integratedforesighttechniques(appropriatelysupportedby participative and user-friendly simulationand visualisation tools), may prove to beinstrumental to further implement policiesand achieve socio-economic impacts,generating a cascade of public and privatedecision-making on societys course ofchange and aﬀecting the interactions thatprecede formal policy-making processes.In addition to this, behavioural change mayalso be stimulated as participating in thegovernance and policy making processmay also enhance eﬀectiveness of policyimplementation from individual usersandstakeholdersotherthanthegovernment.The roleofgovernmentinfactisshiftingfrombeing a central steering entity to that of amoderator of collective decision-makingprocesses.However, in order to perform this roleeﬀectively, all stakeholders should be ableto contribute to the policy directionscommonly agreed, and governments needto be capable of setting up a sharedplatform for policy intelligence, whereforesight and modelling techniques –ifactually supported by ICT- can be crucial forimproving governance and policy makingprocesses.4 Conclusions4.1 Policy challenges and possible solutionsThe scenarios developed aimed to deﬁnehow the advancement of ICT tools forgovernance and the integration of policymodelling techniques could aﬀectgovernance and policy making twentyyears from now, so as to identify whatresearch is needed and which policiesshould be promoted. Indeed, challenges inthe emerging domain of ICT forgovernance and policy modelling are hugeand complex and cannot be dealt with inisolation. In this regard, there is also a strictrelationship with the broader task ofenvisioning and developing the FutureInternet. The Internet was not originallydesigned to serve massive scaleapplications with guaranteed quality ofservice and security [Zittrain, 2008].Emerging technologies like streaming highquality video and running 3D applications,or, in our speciﬁc domain, applications thatenable mass collaboration, data processing,simulation and visualization throughcomplex modelling, face severe constraintsas regards running seamlessly anytime,anywhere, with good quality services.European scientists have proved they are atthe forefront of ICT research since theinvention of the web and throughout therapid technological developments of thelast 20 years [EC ISTAG, 2009]. It is now timeto bring together diﬀerent researchdisciplines that could help us beneﬁt fromthe opportunities of ICT for bettergovernance and policy making, and at thesame time overcome the possible risks tosociety of mainstreaming large scaleapplications in this domain. Additionally,and from a technological infrastructureperspective, we should remember that thecurrent Internet, as a ubiquitous anduniversal means for communication andcomputation, despite being extraordinarilysuccessful so far, has a series of inherentunresolved problems. It is expected that itwill soon reach its limits as regards botharchitectural capability and capacity [EC,2009e]. However, the future developmentof Internet infrastructure will be supportedby complementary advancements intechnological applications that are nowexperts’ insights
16. consolidated trends and expected to groweven faster. The groundwork in place foryears now should yield innovation in thenear future [Pew Internet, 2010a]. Morepowerful devices, even cheaper netbooks,virtualization and cloud computing(including portable solutions), reputationsystems for social networking and masscollaboration tools, as well as theproliferation of sensors, reporting anddecision-support systems, do-it-yourselfembedded systems, robots, sophisticatedalgorithms for processing data andperforming statistical simulation andanalysis, visualization tools to report resultsof these analysis, aﬀective technologies,personalized and location-aware services,facial and voice recognition systems,electronic paper, anomaly-based securitymonitoring, self-heating systems andothers are expected to become reality andmainstream in the next 10-20 years.But far more important than networkrequirementsandtechnologicalapplicationsis the consideration of socio-economicaspects in the development of future ICTtools for governance and policy modellingtechniques. Socio-economics as a multi-disciplinary ﬁeld, which cuts across allresearch areas [EC DG Research, 2009b] oftheICTforgovernanceandpolicymodellingdomain, has manifold research challenges.Suitable governance and policy-makingmechanisms, which provide appropriateincentives for participation, but at the sametime ensure security and avoid risks (ofenlarging digital exclusion, for example),need to be designed.Moreover, legal and regulatory issues suchas digital rights, privacy and dataprotection, also have to be taken intoconsideration, as the demand for theestablishment of trust in governance mayincrease (or shift) as its usage scenarioschange [Hildebrandt, 2009]. For example,an ever-increasing openness of ICT-enabled governance and policy modellingmechanisms, and the criticality and valueof the transactions conducted over theopen platform used for this purpose, maycreate incentives for malicious use of dataand information. While securitytechnologies will be developed to addressthe technological challenges linked to this,additional risks to trust arise, mainly due toits potential pervasiveness, large scale andinvolvement of users. The challengesinclude, for instance, the design of identitymanagement systems capable of dealingwith billions of entities, and their diﬀerentroles in the governance sphere, thetrustworthiness and control of distributedapplications based on services oﬀeredthrough open service delivery platforms,and the secure and trusted interaction withreal-world objects and entities throughsensors and actuator networkinfrastructures [Pew Internet, 2010a]. Morespeciﬁcally, for example, the emergence ofwireless networks could allow softwareapplications and physical objects to beconnected, opening up a wide range ofstimulating new application scenarios ingovernance and policy making [Feijoo et al,2009; Jaokar and Gatti, 2009]. At the sametime, however, the same opennessunderpinning their mass-development andusage will expose sensor networks andrelated information and content to possibleattack and misuse.The opportunities provided by future ICTtools for governance and policy modellingfor individuals, businesses and governmentsare huge but they will only be taken ifappropriate conditions and governancemodels are developed. In fact, it isexpected that ICT tools for governance andpolicy modelling techniques will forcechange in institutions, no matter howresistant they are. And even if it could bepredicted that governments that redeﬁnetheir relationship with their stakeholderswill be the ones to succeed, the market willstill drive that process in the commercialdomain, and tensions may emerge asstakeholders know more and more aboutthe organizations that are trying to servethem [Pew Internet, 2010b].At the same time, it seems that increasingdemand from the scientiﬁc and businesscommunity, and from civil societyorganizations and citizens groups, will drivethe emergence of experimentally-drivenresearch, to address broad governance andpolicy-making challenges, developing andapplyingICTtoolsandapplicationstoexploitthe full value of the mass collaboration andopenandparticipatoryparadigmunderpinningthe future technological developments andgovernance directions in Europe. Thiswould eventually allow the testing of newICT-based solutions and models forcollaborative governance and participatorypolicy modelling, and socio-economicimpact assessment of future societalchanges. This last issue entails building onthe momentum that the domain of ICT forgovernance and policy modelling hasrecently gained, by further developing theresearch community.In order to bridge the gap between variousstakeholders and long-term research andlarge-scale experimentation, enablingcross-fertilization across diﬀerent scientiﬁcdisciplines and integration of resources,special emphasis should be put onfostering common research results.This willcreate value for the EU, avoidingfragmentation of research eﬀorts and itshould also include the experiences gainedat the international level. This requiresdeveloping a joint strategic researchagenda, on ICT for governance and policymaking to support the building of an open,innovativeandinclusiveDigitalEurope2030.The effectivenessof policy depends onthe involvement ofa broader rangeof stakeholders thanthose formally incharge of policydecisions.01/2013 myForesight®14experts’ insights
17. 01/2013myForesight®154.2 FutureResearchandnextfrontiersMost remarkable and perhaps notcomparable with the development of theInternet in its ﬁrst evolution (what can bedeﬁned as the Web1.0) is also theexponential growth of the new generationofWeb2.0 applications, both in terms of thenumber of applications and number ofusers. Remarkable too is the lightningspeed with which the trend spread. It tookbarely three years to social computing togrow from a marginal community andbecome the dominant Internet trendwhich it is today.The fast growth and massive uptake ofWeb2.0 services are at the origin of a deepersocio-economic impact, the signs of whichare however not clear yet. In fact, despitethe rise of Web2.0 applications and its fastgrowth and pervasiveness, it is still quitediﬃcult to capture the phenomenon andmeasureitorevenjustbuildinganempiricallysound case for assessing speciﬁc impactsand its potential policy-relevance. Evidenceof impacts of Web2.0 on our society islargely anecdotal and in most cases notsystematically gathered and analyzed.Existing metrics are not able to make senseof the transformations enabled by theseemerging technologies as the changesthey convey seem to be more behaviouraland cultural than primarily ICT-driven. As amatter of fact, we are already witnessingseveral changes in our daily lives, and inpersonal and professional attitudes,especially if we look at the way the youngpeople integrate their digital and realselves, or at how social networks and user-generated content is used and consumed(ifnotabused)(Misuraca,2011forthcoming).In foresight terms, the momentum that hascharacterised the Web2.0 phenomenon isexpected to continue, to further evolve andto mature. The driving forces and addedvalues of it in fact reside in the practices(the values of social engagement) ratherthan in speciﬁc technologies and theirsheer corresponding numbers. In thecoming decade, Internet access andnetwork bandwidths will continue toincrease, and the Web, either as we know ittoday, or in yet surprising evolutions, willundoubtedly continue contribute to thedevelopment of the Information Society,shaping new form of user participations.In this regard, the measurement/modellingissue becomes crucial, particularly in thecontext of informing evidence-basedpolicy decisions. The most urgent need iscertainly for new metrics to address theemergence of new social media, and ingeneral, for systematic measurements andinternationally comparable data. Thesewould enable better assessment of thelong-term importance of Web 2.0 trends interms of their socio-economic impact, andthe quantitative and qualitative diﬀerencesbetween countries across the world. This isespecially necessary in order to bridge thegap between the wealth of "marketing-type" data and the lack of oﬃcial statistics,which occurs for every new socio-techno-economictrend,especiallyinthefast-evolvingICT landscape (Misuraca 2011 forthcoming).At the same time, despite not yet supportedby consolidated evidence, it seems that themost promising user-enabling ICTapplications are emerging in the area ofmass-collaboration for governance andpolicy-making, where mobilisation ofpolitics and civic engagement is already insome cases producing a shift in the powerbalance between the "crowd" and politicalrepresentatives. Moreover, web2.0applicationsandvaluescansupportgatheringcollective intelligence of citizens andframing public opinion formation onspeciﬁc policy-relevant issues in a structuredmanner so as to harness evidence-basedpolicy-making and improve quality ofregulatory and policy frameworks.However, while ICT-supported modellingtechniques are largely available to supportimpact analysis in speciﬁc policy areas, theyoften remain stand-alone models built inisolation and as black-boxes. They cancontribute to respond to focusedeconomic and techno-economic questions(e.g. impact of regulations on speciﬁcenergy emissions or transport modeshifting) but cannot provide acomprehensive analysis of complex cross-sectoral issues that would aﬀect the overallsociety (CROSSROAD, 2010).In this regard, attempts to develop moresophisticated and integrated ICT-enabledmodels able to capture the variousvariables and consequences aﬀectingsocietal changes are underway4. However,in both the Web2.0 realm and more ingeneral the ICT for governance and policymodelling domain, it should be consideredthat the quality of input that can begathered from users through user-enablingtechnologies (e.g. social computing, mobiletechnologies, sensors, etc.) is highlyvariable, and ﬁltering this content is still verymuch a resource intensive task. One keychallenge is therefore to make sense ofgigantic quantities of qualitative data, suchas entailing mass conversations. In otherwords, the goal is to look at ways toimprove signal-to-noise ratio, through avariety of means, with diﬀerent human-computer balance, through tools such assense-making, reputation managementand collaborative ﬁltering. In addition, visualanalytics and simulations techniques (forexample using virtual worlds or seriousgaming) can help domesticate andgeneralise results of modelling techniquesto the wider public (CROSSROAD, 2010).In conclusion, our assumption is that ascurrent modelling techniques are not reallyadequate to predict, monitor and evaluatepolicy developments and their impacts onsociety, a new policy-measurementparadigm is required [Misuraca and Rossel,2011, forthcoming]. As a consequence ofwhat precedes, and broadly of our ownresearch journey, we need to emphasizethe relative absence of a meta-level ofanalysis, a reﬂexive layer where not only wewould model, but also measure and modelhow we measure and model and with whatimplications. This epistemic concern ismainly about modelling issues. Basically, wecould say that so far, obsessed with theneed to play along the success story-line ofmore ICT the more welfare, we havedownplayed the necessity to model ourobservations and discuss our modellingassumptions so as to improve them andmoregenerallygenerateaknowledgeprocess.experts’ insightsFar moreimportant thannetwork requirementsand technologicalapplications isthe consideration ofsocio-economicaspects in thedevelopment of futureICT tools forgovernance and policymodelling techniques.
18. 01/2013 myForesight®16This broad perspective could for examplebuild on the potential that gatheringcollective intelligence combined withadvanced ICT-enabled policy modellingtechniques. A shift is thus required, not onlyby enabling users to become livingsensors and providing data to be directlyfed into comprehensive models, but alsogiving the possibility to the same users(being they researchers, businesses, civilservants or citizens) to have direct access todata they need, and process them usingICT-enabled simulation and visualizationintelligentsystems (i.e. able to ﬁnd meaningin confusion, independently of human-acquired knowledge). Ultimately this willnot only allow to have a bettermeasurement of policies (thus modellingandassessingtherealimplicationsofpolicies)but will also create new opportunities forpeople to interact with and inﬂuencegovernance and policy-making processesand make progress in solving societalproblems; and therefore start to establishthe target not only in the oﬀer/use andtherefore empowering paradigm as it hasbeen proﬁled so far, but on more ambitiousimpacts and transformational options.While so far this has not been the focus ofresearch in the foresight ﬁeld, we also arguethat it would be required to explore thisforesight-modelling couple so to bettergrasp the potential of ICT dynamics, andespecially user-enabling technologies formodelling and evaluating policy-options.This will also allow changing the perspectiveof the observer, thus gaining insightfulevidence and data directly from the users,and in real time, and more generallyspeaking of usefulness/relevance of theaccomplishments of ICT applications “insituation of use”, towards the great variety ofwaysofaddressingsmallandgrandchallenges.In this regard, as suggested by Piniewski, B.,Codagnone, C, and Osimo, D. (2011,forthcoming), it may also be worthexploring the popular and innovativeapproach to crowd management strategiespresented in the best selling book Nudge[Thaler, 2008]. In this book, the authorscontrast the stylized agents of classicaleconomics called Econs to more human-like agents called Humans.The Econ reliablyreacts using his reﬂective cognitive system,whereas the Human is frequently unreliablein his reaction secondary to an automaticcognitive system5. The fundamental gamechanger presented by Nudge is thattraditional simulation eﬀorts that dependon Econs will under-perform dramaticallytoday as Human behaviours are signiﬁcantcontributors to crowd outcomes. Folks willspend money every year paying for magazinesthat are not read only because they fail to payattentiontoanautomaticrenewalormalignantnudge. The authors claim that left to theirown devices, Humans unlikeEconswilloftencontinuetomakepoordecisionsaﬀectingtheirown wellbeing. Humans are especiallyvulnerable when mapping (view to thefuture) outcomes is delayed or unclear atleast for the moment. In this connection,linking foresight with modelling techniquesmay provide a better understanding of theissues at stake while also provide alternativepolicyoptionstoaddresssocietalchallenges.However, to eﬀectively integrate foresightand policy modelling techniques it wouldbe required to develop a more reﬁned orhigh deﬁnition understanding of sociallyembedded desires, tastes, preferences, andbehavioursofthepolicyrecipientstheywouldlike to aﬀect. In addition, an understandingofhownetworksareborn,growanddevelopover time would be important. The eﬀectsof policies do not occur in a vacuum. Theyoccur within a social network.Thus nudgingalone will not be suﬃcient. Nudging plusnetwork approaches raises challenges butalso creates tremendous opportunities forinnovative policy making [Omerod, 2010].In a system of interconnected agents,changes by a few agents may produce acascade of changes in many agents as theylearn from each other, copy each other, andseek each other’s acceptance. If thenetwork is scale-free (characterised by apower law) then changes enacted by thehubs can even more likely lead to a cascadeeﬀect6. Such cascade eﬀects may drift apolicy into unknown or unexpecteddirections.Thus by understanding the basicstructure and ﬂow of a network, a smallnudge can be applied to relevant hubs toexperts’ insightsTODAYpolicy irreleventscientific practice(ivory tower)TOMORROWParadigm shift:Collaborative,innovative, dataintensivepolicy-makingTODAYUntapped potentialof citizens ofgenerated data andinsightsTODAYReductionistpolicy-makinghitting hardwall of policyresistanceEVIDENCE USAGE IN POLICY MAKINGCOMPREHENSIVELIMITEDNO YESSCOPE/QUALITYOFEVIDENCEBASE4. See for example the FET InitiativeFuturICThttp://www.futurict.ethz.ch/FuturICT and theEU FP7 projects in the domain of ICT for governanceand policy modellinghttp://ec.europa.eu/information_society/activities/egovernment/research/fp7/index_en.htm5. An example of an Econ is Star Trek’s Mr. Spock whotypiﬁes the always-in-control person. The Human maybe typiﬁed by Homer Simpson; who is a typical“yeah-whatever”person.To effectively integrateforesight and policymodelling techniques itwould be required todevelop a more refinedor high definitionunderstanding ofsocially embeddeddesires, tastes,preferences, andbehaviours of thepolicy recipients theywould like to affect.Figure 2 Evidence in policy making: today and tomorrow, Source: Piniewski, B., Codagnone, C,and Osimo, D. (2011, forthcoming)
19. 01/2013myForesight®17trial the cascade eﬀect at a smaller scale.Once conﬁdent that desired policyoutcomes are reliably attained, a largernudge can be applied to the network withthe intention to scale eﬀective policy. Thiscan be repeated in cycles enablingcontinuous improvement co-production ofeﬀective community strategies. Forinstance, integrating information fromclassicalsurveysinto agent-based modellingor other innovative ICT supportingmodelling and simulation tools, policymakers would have access to a reasonableunderstanding of a network structure7.However, for such a paradigmatic shift inpolicy making to happen, it would berequired that a policy intelligence platformenabling meaningful participation ofmultiple stakeholders will be realised.Citizens at large must have an eﬀectivevoice to inform policy, to better understandchoices aﬀecting their futures and to takepersonal ownership of the actions thataﬀect their daily life and futuredevelopments. This will provide anopportunity to vastly improve the evidencebase upon which the policy cycles depend(design, implementation, evaluation).Theoretically, a community of scientists andexperts would produce the mostcomprehensive and robust form ofevidence support for policy-makers.However, this insight may be delayed,diﬃcult to use or not directly useful forspeciﬁc policies. In turn, citizen-generateddata may not be fully comprehensive (self-selected, biased, opinion) or robust (in needof ﬁltering/ validation). Sensitive issues suchas security and privacy must also beaddressed. For these reasons, citizen-generated data are slow to enter the policymaking arena.The paradigm shift in policy modelling willoccur when the top right quadrant of thematrix characterizes the bulk of policyevidence activity. In a cycle of continuousimprovement, collaboration across thethree key groups of stakeholders (policy-makers, expert scientists and non-expertcitizens) will drive evidence-based policy.Together these stakeholders will supportinnovative data intensive policy action,capable of timely reaction and redirectionwithin networked systems.Insummary,ICTalonecannotsolveeverythingand can be even generate new problems.For the desired paradigm shift to occur,both institutional and cultural changes areneeded. Figure 3 is a visual summary of theelements needed for evidence-basedeﬀective policy making. The key elementsneeded for ICT to advance as a powerfulinstrument across the value chain of datacollection, data analysis, and support foraction have been identiﬁed by the FP7project CROSSROAD which reviewed alarge body of literature to generate aroadmap for ICT use in policy modelling8.The ﬁgure provides a synoptic visualisationof how various agents (policy makers,citizens, scientists and expert) share andcollaboratively use data through distributedcomputing. Inside the ICT tool box are toolsfor data analysis, data presentation, and forpersuasive feed-back. Together, allstakeholders are able to obtain answers totheir queries and collectively optimizepolicyto optimize citizen behaviours.Within this framework, it is clear that dataand information are a fundamental buildingblockuponwhichtheparadigm-shiftinpolicymodelling depends. However diﬀerent datamay come in diﬀerent formats and bediﬃcult to link correctly. More importantly,data about the future are not available, andeven the more sophisticated model will notallow to predict exactly what impactsspeciﬁc policies may have, due not only towild cards events, but especially becauseof the not rational neither linear evolutionof policy directions.Therefore, it is important to complementcurrent modelling approaches withparticipatory foresight techniques, allowingfor example the possibility to gather dataand opinions directly from users. In thismanner, strategic and critical informationcan be volunteered by users and thedramatic reduction in cost of consumerelectronics is increasingly making sensor-baseddeviceslessexpensiveandmorepopular.Such sensors enable both participatorysensing (requiring a minimum level ofeﬀorts from users) and opportunisticsensing(nousereﬀortrequired,userstosimplycarryaroundsmartdevicesthatspontaneouslycollect and transmit relevant data). All ofthis can be integrated with the ambientdata collected by Internet of Things (IoT)sensors and other devices capturingimportant information (i.e. satellite images).This will allow developing innovative policyintelligence platforms that based onadvanced participation, new modellingand simulation techniques which will takeadvantage of applications pushing theboundaries of analytics and visualisationtechniques to help bridge the knowledgeasymmetry between the experts, the policymakersandthecitizen.Foresightwillbecomeacrucialcomponentastherealtimedynamicofsuchapolicyintelligenceplatformwillnotrely simply on data about past and presentfacts, but will provide the framework foralternativepolicyoptionsandrelatedimpacts,and thus possibly anticipating the future.Inthiscontext,highlyspecializedknowledgeand analysis will become more accessiblewhile retaining the robustness of rigorousanalysis. Static visual analytics will advanceto interactive visualization with supportinganalytical reasoning and scenario-design tohelp make well-informed dynamicdecisions in changing complex situations.Problems once unknowable due to theirsize and complexity may become quiteknowable. Combining foresight with policymodelling and especially visualisationtechniques will provide a new set of toolsexperts’ insightsCombining foresightwith policy modellingand especiallyvisualisationtechniques will providea new set of toolsextending from thepresentation ofdiscussion argumentsin argumentation mapformats for minimizingthe complexity ofpolicy debates to thecreation of virtualenvironments whichcan simulate thebehaviour of bothpolicy makers andcitizens in a real-lifelike environment.6. The best, more comprehensive and yet accessibleanalysis of network in general and of scale-free networkin particular is that provided by Barabasi. Originally the ideaemerged from a study of epidemiologists who discoveredthat most people have only a few sexual partners in theirlifetime but a few have hundreds and even thousandsand are the catalyser of sexual disease transmission.7. This has been demonstrated in a study of bingedrinking in the UK, (Ormerod P and Wiltshire G, 2009)and in the Framingham Heart Study. In the latter, alongitudinal cardiovascular study following residentssince 1948, suggested that the chances of a personbecoming obese rose by 57 per cent if they had a friendwho became obese (Christakis, and Fowler, 2007 and 2008).8. The ﬁgure and the table have used the monumentalbody of literature reviewed and transformed into themost comprehensive and up to date roadmap on thetopic of ICT for policy modelling produced as part of theFP7 project CROSSROAD [CROSSROAD, 2010].
20. 01/2013 myForesight®18experts’ insightsextending from the presentation ofdiscussion arguments in argumentationmap formats for minimizing the complexityof policy debates to the creation of virtualenvironments which can simulate thebehaviour of both policy makers andcitizens in a real-life like environment. Suchtechniques will be the building blocks ofnewintegratedpolicyintelligenceplatforms.In this regard, the recent call of the FP7 ICTWP 2011-2012 reinforced the focus of theresearch in the area of ICT for governanceand policy modelling and intends to furtheradvance the understanding of howemerging ICT tools for governance andpolicy modelling can provide opportunitiesfor decision-making in a complex world,through the dramatic and combinedgrowth of data available, analysis andsimulationtools,participativeandbehaviouralchange technologies. Integrating foresightmethodologies in this process is requiredand represent in oyr modest view the nextfrontier to be overcome.AcknowledgementsThis paper is in part based on research conductedby the Information Society Unit of the JRC IPTSwithin the CROSSROAD Project - A ParticipativeRoadmaponfutureresearchonICTforgovernanceand policy modelling, an EU FP7 Support Actionconducted by the consortium composed of:National Technical University of Athens, Tech4i2Ltd, University of Koblenz Landau, EPMA and theEuropean Commissions Joint Research CentreIPTS (www.crossroad-eu.net).Figure 3 ICT landscape in support of a policy evaluation paradigm shiftPublishedliteratureSHARED INFRASTRUCTURESemantic based dataand distributedcomputingData collectionData analysisAction• Open govt/ linked data• Participatory sensing• loT sensors• Nanotech• Data validation &filtering tools• Complex modeling• Social simulation• Opinion mining• Visual analytics• Collaborative production• Social networks analysis• Persuasive technologies• Serious gamingRaw andRecombined dataexperiments, simulationsData archivesRaw govt dataOfficiallyrecombined dataPOLICY &BEHAVIOURALCHANGEUser generated/reused dataAmbient/EnvironmentaldataScienceGovernmentCrowdsACTIONACTIONANSWERSScienceGovernmentCrowdsICTSource: Elaboration from CROSSROAD Roadmap (Osimo et al., 2010).
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22. 01/2013 myForesight®20PROBATIONNEWindustry insightsBYMohd Nurul Azammiazammi@might.org.myTHE MISMATCH:FINDING THE BEST FIT
23. 01/2013myForesight®21Based on study conducted by the World Bank onMalaysia, although jobs created in the past werefor skilled professionals (high and medium skills),a large number of jobs available (about 44 percent) is still low-skilled. Although there are a largenumber of vacancies of low-skilled jobs they arenot appealing to Malaysians due to low salariesanduncomfortableworkingconditions.Thisresultedin a huge inﬂow of low-skill foreign workers,estimated at 1.8 million in 2010, to ﬁll the gap.If Malaysia’s competitiveness is still derived fromlow-cost labour instead of innovation orcreativity, it will be trapped in the middle as newinvestments will ﬂow to neighbouring countrieswith relatively cheaper workforce, and highervalue activities remain in developed countries.Toaddress this, The Government initiated theEconomic Transformation Programme (ETP) thatlaid down a comprehensive plan to transformMalaysia to higher income nation (GNI per capitafrom USD 6,700 in 2009 to more than USD 15,000in 2020). The implementation of projects underETP is expected to generate more than 3.3 millionjobsby2020.However,abundancejobopportunitiescreated by the economic activities is notexpected to totally eradicate unemployment, andshortage of skills and talented workforce willcontinue to be the major stumbling block innational development agenda.There are a number of factors aﬀecting theshortage of talent in Malaysia. Based on a studyby the World Bank, the major factors are:a. High brain drain intensity.The number ofskilled Malaysians living abroad has tripledover the last two decades. Two of every 10Malaysianswithtertiaryeducation–almostallofthemyoungadults–leavethecountryforAustralia,the US, the UK and especially Singapore.Q42008IndonesiaPhilippinesMalaysiaThailand2009 2010 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0312RealGDPEmployment840-4-8Q42008IndonesiaPhilippinesMalaysiaThailand2009 2010 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q312840-4-8Against the backdrop of global scene, economicgrowth in Malaysia has been sustained at 4.7 percent from 3rd quarter of 2010 until 1st quarter of2012 (source: Central Bank of Malaysia). Resilienteconomic growth plays an important role inchurning jobs for Malaysian. The total workforceincreased by more than 60 per cent from 7.6million in 1995 to 12.2 million in 2010. Theemployment increased in the fourth quarter of2009, but started to decrease in ﬁrst half of 2011.The unemployment rate in Malaysia is averagedat 3 per cent, gauged by comparing the numberof people actively looking for jobs against thetotal labour force. A matter of serious concern ison the high graduate unemployment rate whichis over 20 per cent for arts/business, and 11 to 17per cent for science, technical and ICT graduates.The number of skilledMalaysians living abroadhas tripled over the last twodecades. Two of every 10Malaysians with tertiaryeducation – almost all ofthem young adults – leavethe country for Australia,the US, the UK andespecially Singapore.Total unemployment Total unemployment-downside scenarioTotal unemployment-additional downside scneraio20022152102052001951901851801751701651601551501451406.56.46.36.26.16.05.95.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Unemployment rate Unemployment rateupside scenarioUnemployment ratedownside scenarioUnemploymentrate - additionaldownside scenarioTotalunemployment(millions)Unemploymentrate(%)Figure 1 Global Unemployment Trends & Projections, 2002-16Global economic downturn especially in developed countries, has further prolongedcurrent jobs recession. According International Labour Oﬃce (ILO), there is a backlogof global unemployment of 200 million – an increase of 27 million since thecommencement of the economic crisis – more than 400 million new jobs will be neededover the next decade to avoid a further increase in unemployment.industry insightsNote: 2011 are preliminary estimates; 2012- 2016 are preliminary projections.Source: ILO Trends econometric models, October 2011 (see Annex 4); World Economic Outlook, September 2011Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2011; ILO LABORSTA; Department of Statistics, Malaysia;National Statistics Oﬃce, Thailand; Stastistics IndonesiaFigure 2 GDP and employment (% change versus same quarter, prior year)
24. 01/2013 myForesight®22industry insightsOxford Economics, through its report on “GlobalTalent 2021”, provides a guideline to addressfuture demand and supply of talent in Malaysia.The report analyses local talents status in 18 localsectors which are divided into three (3)categories: talent deﬁcit, talent surplus andbalanced talent.The requirement for workers with certain skillsand knowledge may change with theevolvement of economic landscape. Malaysia’seconomy has evolved from agriculture based toindustrialisation and today, services sector istaking large portion of overall economic activities.Services sector constitutes more than 67 per cent,followed by manufacturing 29.5 per cent, andprimary sector with 3 per cent of Malaysia’seconomic activities.The planning and production of future humanresources for the country need to take intoaccount opportunities and risks presented by thechange and liberalisation of the market, newindustries growth and employment needs. Theadvancement of technology is dynamic. Itenhances productivity and, in turn, changeshuman job functions. According to McKinsey,advancement of automation technology will freeworkers to focus on more creative tasks andcreate new occupations.Therefore, investment intime and resources to“reskilling”is important foran organisation to stay competitive in futuremarketplace. In addition, high technologyutilisation will enable organisations to tap onunderutilised human potential such as workerswith various disabilities.Mismatch of demand and supply of talents hasbeneﬁted people with special talent as there aredemands worldwide. This minority group hasability to demand higher salary set their ownterms and conditions. However, the vast majoritywho are unable to market their talent are notneglected by the government. Various initiativessuch as education review and graduateemployability blueprint to improve quality ofeducation; new economic model and strategicreform initiatives to ensure availability of talent;labour law reforms for workforce productivity andGovernment Transformation Program (GTP) forimproving the quality of life have beenimplemented.Figure 3 Malaysia Talent 2021 – Demand and Supply of Talentb.Lack of employability among graduates.A study on shortage of talent in Malaysia foundthat ﬁve (5) highest key restraints to hiringare: Lack of skill in information technology,English language, communication, creativity/innovation and technical training.c. Shortagesoftoptalentandhighlyskilledworkers. Migration of skilled workers abroaddue to more attractive remuneration andother incentives, especially in Middle Eastcountries, has aﬀected various sectors. Thepositions they left behind are left vacant foraperiodoftimeduelackofsuitablecandidates,thus hampering industry development.d.Otherfactors. Productivity wage disconnect,insuﬃcientlyleveragedpooloflatenttalent,andcostlyandtimeconsumingemploymentprocess.Malaysia’s economyhas evolved from agriculturebased to industrialisation andtoday, services sector is takinglarge portion of overalleconomic activities.Source: Global Talent 2021, Oxford EconomicsD – Deficit Talent, S – Surplus Talent, B – Balanced TalentOverall Executives & Professionals TechnicalManagersMining D D D BManufacturing S S D SPower Generation S S S SWater S S S SConstruction S S D SWholesale & Retail B B D STransportation D D D BHotels & Catering B D D SICT D D D BFinance B B D SReal Estate D D D DProfessional Services D D D DBPOs D D D DPublic Administration S S D SEducation S S B SHealthcare S S B SEntertainment & Art D D D BMisc. Services D D D B
26. SCIENCE STREAM EDUCATIoN:wHAT THE FUTURE HoLDS?Realising the importance of science andtechnology (S&T)for Malaysia to achieveher target of becoming a fully developednation by 2020, an S&T policy that emphisesS&T education and training is formulated.The teaching of S&T is emphises in theNational Education System.The Choice: Science or Art?Theoretically individuals choose the stream ofeducation with the intention and ambition tobuild a career. Person studies chemistry with thehope to become a chemist. Similarly, thoselearning ﬁnance aim for careers in the ﬁnancialsector. Based on this theory, everyone expects tobe involved and succeed in careers related totheir choice of education.Reality does not seem to support the theory of‘choice of education as choice of career’. Themajority of science students are not involved inscience careers. It is common to see formerscience students pursuing careers in sales andmarketing, administration, and other non-scienceprofessions. On the other hand, art studentscannot build a career in science as science relatedprofessions require in-depth technical knowledgethat is not in any of the art syllabus.The Higher Education Planning Committee aimsfor the education paradigm to be 60% sciencestream, 40% art stream. However until today, thishas not been achieved1. The failure is clearlyreﬂected when only 20% of the 472,541 studentswho sat for the Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM)examinationin2012weresciencestreamstudents2.It is also reported that there is a low workforce ofResearch Scientist and Engineers (RSE), only 29per 10000. The ﬁgure is very low in terms ofglobal competitiveness ranking. The facts arediscouraging for a country that aspires to be adeveloped nation3.In the era of knowledge based economy, innovation is crucial for Malaysia to improve her globalcompetitiveness. Research and development (R&D) and technological innovations are essential forlocal industries to grow and mature. And with Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics(STEM) education, technological development can be further upgraded to global standard.Figure 1 Statistics from the Ministry of Higher Education indicated the inclination of studentsis towards the Social Sciences, Business and Law courses.2401/2013 myForesight®industry insightsAgricultureand Veterinary1%EngineeringManufacturingand Construction15%Healthand Welfare14%Education10%Science Mathematicsand Computer15%Law6%Social Sciences,Business and Law32%Arts andHumanities13%1. Ministry of Education2. Ministry of Education - 20123. S&M Education in Malaysia – Kluster S&M, MPN 2011Ruzanna Abdul Rahmanruzanna@might.org.myBYNatrah Mohd Emrannatrah@might.org.my
27. Science in Tertiary EducationTalent Roadmap 2020 reports that tertiaryeducationhasdoubledsince2000to2011throughthe establishment of more local institutes ofhigher learning; providing for a larger number ofschool leavers and encouraging them to furthertheir studies. However, even though coursesoﬀered by the learning institutes have beendiversiﬁed and aligned to the country’s currentand future talent requirements, students’selectionhovers over the non-science ﬁelds.Statistics from the Ministry of Higher Educationindicated the inclination of students is towardsthe Social Sciences, Business and Law courses4.A study conducted by Kluster Sains danMatematik Majlis Profesor Negara LaporanTahun2011 showed that, despite the implementationof science : arts students’ratio at 60:40, the nationhas not reached that target until today. In factthere has been a signiﬁcant decrease of sciencestream students. The study showed that moststudents were interested in the science ﬁeld butchoose not to study in the science stream due to:• The diﬃculty to achieve outstanding resultsin the science and mathematics subjects;• The opportunities to pursue their studies arelimited;• There is a lack of knowledge and exposure onthe available careers for science graduates orpost-graduates.Contrary to the ﬁndings, a survey conducted bymyForesight® shows that 60% of universitystudents nationwide see themselves working intechnical ﬁeld that includes engineers, scientistsand researchers. This indicates that studentsrealise and believe in the potential of sciencestream and believe that they would be ablecontribute to the economy in the near future.Repulsive FactorsEducation CostScience stream education cost more as it requiresthe purchase scientiﬁc equipment, laboratorymaintenance fees and higher tuition bills. Incomparison, law students are not burdened withcourtroom maintenance fees, and hotelmanagement students do not have to pay feesfor facilities and cutleries.Facilities and EducatorsThe study of science proves and experiments.Therefore, science stream education requires moretoolsandequipmentinclass.Thelackofappropriatefacilitiesinschoolsandhigherlearninginstituteswilldeﬁnitelyreducetheunderstandingofsciencesubjects.The Academy of Sciences Malaysia (ASM),through its 2011 Advisory Report on theTeachingandLearningofScienceandMathematicsinSchools,statedthatmanyfeltthecurriculumforscienceandmathematicsisnotrelevant,cramped,rigidandheavy.Teaching science is another serious issue as mostjob seekers treat teaching as‘the last resort career’.Theybecome‘reluctant’educatorsastheirinspirations,ambitions and interests are elsewhere. Thesituationworsens when some schools, particularly in ruralareas, are not equipped or equipped with poorlymaintained computers and science laboratories. Thisresults in students losing interest, and becomingdiscouraged to explore and experiment. Thesituation leads to the lack of linkage betweentheories learnt and hands on try-outs5.Parental SupportParents are inﬂuential in any child’s development.Parents are responsible to inspire and providesupports–ﬁnancialandmotivational–fortheirchildren.In situations when parents are unable (or do notwish) to provide ﬁnancial or motivational support(or both), the children/students would opt for theeasier and less burdening choice. It has beenrecorded that among factors causing students todrop interest to further study in the sciencestream is due to lack of support from parents6.As more than half of Malaysian households earna monthly income of less than RM3, 0007, only asmall percentage of students can aﬀord to paytheir way to a tertiary education without gettingscholarship or loan.Job OpportunitiesScienceandTechnology(S&T)relatedemploymentis limited as most job opportunities in Malaysiaare directed towards administration, sales andmarketing, and ﬁnance. 50% of the labour forcein Malaysia is employed in the service sector. Theﬁgure indicates that job prospects for a sciencestream students/graduates looks bleaker than itis promoted to be.2501/2013myForesight®industry insightsEstimated Tuition Fees per Course for Degree Programmesat Private Institutes in MalaysiaAreas of Study Estimated Tuition Fee Duration of StudyArts StreamBusiness RM43,000 – RM75,000 3 yearsHospitality & Tourism RM73,000 3 yearsScience StreamEngineering RM46,000 – RM65,000 3 to 4 yearsIT RM45,000 – RM65,000 3 yearsMedicine RM300,000 5 yearsPharmacy RM100,000 4 yearsSource: Study Malaysia Research Team & Study in Malaysia Handbook (7th International Edition)Source : Economic Planning unit and Department of Statistics MalaysiaEmployment Sectors 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Agriculture, Forestry, 12.5% 12.2% 12.0% 12.0% 11.8%livestock and FishingMining & Quarrying 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%Manufacturing 28.9% 28.9% 28.8% 27.6% 27.8%Construction 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5%Services 51.4% 51.9% 52.2% 53.4% 53.5%Table 2 Trend shows that more job vacancies are available in the service sector.4. Statistics of Higher Education of Malaysia, MOHE (2011)5. Science & Technology Human Capital Roadmap:Towards 2020, A roadmap for Malaysia’s S&T workforceto achieve global competitiveness by 20206. The Malaysian Insider Newspaper: Education Ministryforms committee to boost science student numbers(6th November 2012)7. Department of Statistics Malaysia8. The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (IEM)Table 1 Requirement for more advanced learning tools and laboratories set-up and longerstudy period determined the tuition fees
28. 2601/2013 myForesight®industry insightsThe study focussed on the top three positions inmanagement team of the companies – Chairmen,CEOs, and COOs. CFOs and Financial Heads/Presidents of the company were not included.Despite omitting CFOs and Financial Heads of theorganisations, the study showed that 61% of thehigh ranked oﬃcials from the top 20 companiesin Malaysia are of-non technical background.Only 34% studied in the science stream and thereminder 5% have other qualiﬁcations.The study shows that even big industries such asPetroleum and Aviation are led by individualsfrom the arts stream. Only a handful of companiesare led by individuals with science background,such as Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad, CCMDuopharma (M) Sdn Bhd, and Clara InternationalBeauty Group. They are led by individuals witheducation background in Agricultural Science,Pharmacy, and Chemistry respectively. As forengineering- related companies such as TenagaNasional Berhad, YTL Corporation, UEM GroupBerhad,PetronasandPernecCorporation Bhd, mostof the top managements have engineeringeducation background.The study also shows that top positions incompanies with high demand for technology areheld by art stream educated individuals. Most toppositions in organisations like PETRONAS, SimeDarby, and Boustead are held by individualseducated in business or ﬁnance.Back to BasicsEven as the government is struggling to inculcateS&T in education, the targets are yet to beachieved. Public learnt that the science streameducation provides rather poor promotion-prospects. At most, an engineer can be promotedas head of the engineering department andalmost all other high-ranking positions are oﬀlimit to them8. In a science-based company, thecase is often that there is only one such position.Students do not see the importance ofdeveloping their skills in the science streamdespite their interest. The target set by theMinistry of Higher Education Plan 2007-2010 is toachieve 100 RSE per 100,000 workforce and 10,000 PhDs by the year 2020. However, the ﬁguresare still far behind. In 2008, the ratio of researchersper 10, 000 labour force, was 22.7.S&T Education: What is next?Students from art stream have better chances torise to the top management levels. But, does thisprove that science stream graduates are not ﬁt tohold positions in top managements? Or does thissaythat,inwhateverindustryonecanventurein,theﬁnancial and business aspects is superior to havingthe required technological understanding?No one doubts the importance of research anddevelopment, together with a strong foundationof science and technology based human capitalfor a company or organization and even the nationtoadvanceintoahightechnologyera. Buteveryoneseems to ignore the importance of having anindividual with adequate S&T knowledge and R&Dexpertise to lead the appropriate organisations.Top PositionsWho holds the top positions in multi-national andinternational companies? What are theireducationalbackgrounds?Whataretherelationshipsbetween their education backgrounds with theirpositions and the companies they lead?A survey has been conducted to determine theeducation background of individuals in highestmanagementpositionsofthetop20localcompaniesinvolved in oil & gas, telecommunications,constructions, pharmaceuticals and engineering tounderstand the correlation between educationand career. Companies from the ﬁnancial industrywere omitted from the survey as it is well-knownthat ﬁnancial industries are led by professionalswith matching educational background.Figure 2 Scanning the business background of top 20 local companiesUtilitiesOil &GasManufacturingLandICTHealthcareConstructionConglomerateEntertainmentMobility6% 6% 6% 6% 9%3%21%12% 12%18%Technology3%Others5%Finance33%Science10%Law6%Business22%Engineering21%(Source : myForesight)(Source : myForesight)61% of the high rankedofficials from the top 20companies in Malaysiaare of-non technicalbackgroundFigure 3 Observation on leaders of the top companies’education background shows howeducation influences the prospect in employment.
30. 2801/2013 myForesight®Ahmad Razif Mohamadrazif@might.org.myBYDr Raslan Ahmadraslan@might.org.myENABLINGTHE FUTURE:Re-EnergizingMalaysia Education fromCradle to Careercover story
31. 2901/2013myForesight®Education in MalaysiaAn OverviewThe Malaysian education system encompassesstudents from pre-school through university. Pre-tertiary education (pre-school to secondaryeducation) is under the authority of the Ministryof Education (MOE) while the custodian fortertiary education is the Ministry of HigherEducation (MOHE).Primary education (6 years) and secondaryeducation (5 years total—comprised of 3 years oflower secondary and 2 years of upper secondary)make up 11 years of education. In this delicatestage, a total of 4 national exams are placed inspeciﬁc years of schools: Ujian Penilaian SekolahRendah (UPSR) at standard 6, Penilaian MenengahRendah (PMR) at Form 3, Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia(SPM) at Form 5 and Sijil Tertinggi PelajaranMalaysia (STPM) at upper 6. Most of the studentswith good grades are able to apply for pre-U (ormatriculation using SPM results) because ofgrades that show that the students are able tocope with university-level education.At the tertiary education level, institutions ofhigher learning oﬀer courses leading to theawards of certiﬁcate, diploma, ﬁrst degree andhigher degree qualiﬁcations (in academic andprofessional ﬁelds). The duration of study for abasic bachelor degree programme is 3 years andthe courses of study at this level are provided byboth the public and private education sectors,attracting many international students.Looking at the current education landscape inMalaysia,itisimportanttounderstandthatthewholevalue chain must head toward the same vision anddirection in order to reach the national agenda tobecome a developed nation. Every developmentpoint (from primary to secondary or secondary totertiary) must provide continuity and support.The issuesOne of the major issues that Malaysia has beenbattling is meeting the human capital demandthat will be necessary in 2020. Currently, Malaysiais ranked 21st in the Global CompetitivenessReport by the World Economic Forum., whichhighlighted that Malaysia has one of the mosteﬃcient and sound ﬁnancial sectors (just behindSingapore and Hong Kong), highly eﬃcientmarkets (ranked 15th) and shows improvementof the macroeconomic situation (despite a 5%budget deﬁcit of GDP). To further move up thescale and meet the NationalVision 2020, Malaysianeeds to improve performance in education andtechnology readiness, improve access to highereducation and training, and increase enrolmentrates of secondary and tertiary education. Lookingat these issues, it is clear that the value chain ofthe educational system must be in sync to meetthe demand of human capital trained in scienceand technology by the year 2020.Currently, Malaysia is unable to supply the neededamount science candidates for tertiary education(60 RSE by 2020). In reality, the science stream isa minority compared to its other counterpartprograms such as Arts,Vocational, etc. In 1967, theHigher Education Planning Committee proposedthat the science to arts ratio should be 60:40 inorder to fulﬁll the future demand of a developingnation. Ministries and related agencies haveconducted various workshops and policychanges to address the issues. But, despite variouspolicies and action plans put in place, this targethas yet to be achieved.One recommendation to move closer to this goalis to increase the involvement of students in thescience stream at secondary and tertiary levels byintroducing inquiry based science education(IBSE) at both primary and secondary levels. Thebeauty of the IBSE teaching methodology is thatit is designed to be inclusive for both weak andexcellent students. Secondly, we recommendstrengthening the quality and relevance of S&T inschools. It is important to ensure that the scientiﬁcknowledge that is passed along to students is ofthe highest quality & standards. Lastly, werecommend increasing and strengthening R&Drelated to Science and Mathematics Education. Itis important for policy makers to draft policiesusing the right data and also for agencies toimplement policies in the best strategic way withinterest of the Rakyat.Science education is not only an issue in Primaryand Secondary education; tertiary education alsoplays an important role after the science “baton”has been passed to upper-level students.According to Majlis Penyelidikan dan KemajuanSains Negara, Malaysia needs a workforce of493,830 people in RSE by 2020 to support thecurrent government initiatives in ETP, GTP, andNEM. This means that the rate of increase of RSEshould be about 31% per year.There must be continuity and a sustainableapproach between the two primary areas(primary-secondary education and tertiaryeducation) to ensure an adequate supply ofhighly skilled human capital across the board.The goal is clear, but how can we achieve it?The Intervention: Cradle-to-CareerIn the United States, people working in educationtheory have developed various initiatives andprograms to strengthen the educational system.Even industry players and policy makers play arole. One thing missing from many of thesetheories, however, is teamwork and collaboration.This includes bringing in community leaders andexperts, as well as academic institutionsand family support to be a part of children’sroadmap to success. The STRIVE approach(http://strivenetwork.org/) is based on thisholistic view of education.As depicted above, in every juncture of a child’sjourney, it is important to evaluate benchmarksand properly facilitate not only the righteducational exposure, but also guidance fromfamily and other support networks. We believethat the direction and target of our nationaleducational system must possess the same visionand purpose as the STRIVE approach. In line withthat, there is a core belief that working in silos willnever work; instead various support systems mustwork together to have a collective impact on themacro and micro levels. In this particular case, ourfocus needs to be “What works for our kids?”Convening to answer that question is the ﬁrst steptoward a holistic and integrated civic infrastructurewhere everyone in the community works togethertoward a common goal.The diagram below explains the building blocksof Career-to-Cradle (C2C) infrastructure (a keycomponent of the STRIVE approach) with 4 pillars.The ﬁrst pillar is shared community vision. Thespirit of the partnership needs to be set from thestart and it relies on an understanding thateveryone shares accountability, even while thereare diﬀerent responsibilities for outcomes.The second pillar is evidence based decisionmaking. We must not allow perfect to be theenemy of good and get in the way of releasingdata, but instead should use evidence based datato prioritize decisions and work toward betterresults in the years to come.Have you ever thought about what your children actually learn in school?Education is perceived as an essential component of our society, but howdoes the reality of our children’s day-to-day education correlate with thecountry’s key development goals?Looking at the macro level, one of the key elements to be recognized as adevelopednationby2020isthefoundationresourceofhumancapital.Itis,withoutadoubt,acrucialelementforMalaysiatobuildupthenecessarysupplyof human capital to meet the demand for Malaysia’s cross sectorial Science& Technology (S&T) goals, which are based on the country’s economicindicatorssuchGDPat6%perannumwiththesupportofentrypointprojects(EPPs) under the New Key Economic Areas (NKEAs). With new high impactprojectscoming into the picture, it will be vitaltohaveasustainablesupplyofhighlyskilledworkersto support these government programmes.cover story
32. 01/2013 myForesight®30The third pillar is collaborative action which isdesigned to promote collective impact at a largescale. It is critical for teams to come together andidentify common goals and data needs to alignresources and develop common action plans.The last pillar is the investment and sustainabilitypillar. In using the Strive framework, funders canbe encouraged to support speciﬁc outcomes. Forexample, industry players would prefer to fundresearch programs that produce a more highlyskilled workforce rather than lower level or K-12focus areas. In essence, the group must enableoptions for funders to align their support withtheir own missions, while still maintaining acommitment toward the larger vision of theeducational system. Additionally, it is critical toestablish a backbone of staﬀ and communalresources to ensure the long-term sustainabilityand viability of these eﬀorts.GSIAC : Putting things togetherOn May 16, 2012, in NewYork, the Global Scienceand Innovation Advisory Council held its 2ndGSAIC meeting. One of the Council’s newinitiatives is Cradle-to-Career, which is amovement implemented in the United States anddesigned to improve student success from pre-school up to university. This initiative is a jointventure between the Ministry of Higher Education(MOHE), the New York Academy of Sciences(NYAS) and the State University of New York(SUNY), of which Nancy Zimpher, co-creator ofthe STRIVE Cradle-to-Career approach isChancellor. This initiative will provide beneﬁts toMalaysia as a step in the development of humancapital which lines up with eﬀorts to transformMalaysia into a high-income, globally competitivenation. Implementation will involve the followingthree main components:a. The main component is an innovative humancapitalimprovementthatfocusesonstrengtheningtheeducationofScience,Technology,Engineeringand Mathematics (STEM) in primary andsecondary schools. Initial implementation willcome through a partnership between NYASand UKM PERMATA-Pintar that aims to cultivatethe "Nobel Laureate mindset”among brightMalaysian children by exposing them to actualNobel Laureates and providing them witheducation on key areas of science that willfacilitate their ability to translate their researchacross countries and cultures.b. The second component is a focus on researchexcellence, which will be achieved by placingMalaysian research scientists in world-classlaboratoriesbasedintheU.S.,suchasBrookhavenNational Laboratory, High Technology Center,Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and the EarthInstituteatColumbiaUniversity.Malaysianscientistswill be able to be exposed to these renownedlaboratories, inspiring their development asresearchers.c. The third component is focused on bringingresearch to market. This can be achievedthroughanadditionalallocationofgrants,research,development and pre-commercialization, andeﬀectiveparticipationofeducationalinstitutions,government, industry, and entrepreneurs. Oneof the suggested projects was to put a newMalaysian CEO from SMEs at Stony BrookUniversity where the CEO will be able toexperience and also enhance internationalbusiness relationships.In conclusion, these initiatives have to involveeveryone in the education value chain and shouldbe centered towards students’ needs. Withouteveryone being on the same page and of thesame vision, we might not be able to achieve ourgoals and support other government initiatives tomake Malaysia a developed nation by 2020.Exhibits Learning-related Skills Self-Regulation,Social Competence, Self-Esteem, &MotivationAdult Figure Attachment Other Than ParentSelf-Regulation,&MotivationOther Than Parent31 4 K 7 84 9 10 12 13 15 16BirthStudent & Family SupportKey Transition AreasBenchmarksAcademic2 1 2 5 6 11 143 CareerUsesExploration&DiscoverytoUndertstandSurroundingsRespondtoparent/caregiverHigh-qualityTalkingReading/singingDevelopsLetterKnowledge&readingsensitivityParticipatesinHigh-qualityPreschoolParticipatesinFullDayKindergartenDemonstrates Social Emotional CompetenceEngages in Community &School OrganizationsDevelops a Career Plan &Establishes goalsHas A Stable Relationship Witha Strongly Involved Parent or CaregiverHas a Parent/Caregiver WhoUnderstandsDevelopment MilestonesReadsata4thGradeReadingLevelHasaClearExpectationofGoingtoCollegePassesatLeast5.9thGradeCoursesWithNoFailingGradesMastersAdvancedMath&ScienceEnrollsinJuniorYearofCollegeParticipatesinFirstYearSeminar(Academic&Social)MastersAlgebra1Has Sufficient Financial AidEngages in Community &Campus OrganizationsDevelops Time &StressManagement SkillsFigure 1 Student Roadmap to SuccesInvestment &SustainabilityCommunityEngagementFunding forCollaborative ActionSupport forAnchor EntityCollaborative Action Collaborative ActionNetworksContinuousImprovementApproachPlan to ScalePracticesEnvidence BasedDecision MakingCommunity LevelOutcomesPriority Outcomes &StrategiesComprehensiveData ManagementSystemShared CommunityVisionFramework for Building a Cradleto Career Civic InfrastructureCross-sectorStakeholderEngagementPartnershipAccountabilityStructureStrategicCommunicationsSource : Researched by the University of Cincinnati Strive 2011cover story
33. Book ClubHow ToCreate AMindPublisher & date: Viking(November 16, 2010)By: Ray KurzweilISBN-10: 0670025291ISBN-13: 978-0670025299The bold bestselling author explores thelimitlesspotentialofreverse-engineeringthe human brain.Ray Kurzweil is arguably today’s most inﬂuential—and often controversial—futurist. In How toCreate a Mind, Kurzweil presents a provocativeexploration of the most important project inhuman-machine civilization—reverseengineering the brain to understand preciselyhow it works and using that knowledge to createeven more intelligent machines.Kurzweil discusses how the brain functions, howthe mind emerges from the brain, and theimplications of vastly increasing the powers ofour intelligence in addressing the world’sproblems. He thoughtfully examines emotionaland moral intelligence and the origins ofconsciousness and envisions the radicalpossibilities of merging them with the intelligenttechnology we are creating.Destined to be one of the most widely discussedand debated science books of the year, How toCreate a Mind is sure to take its place alongsideKurzweil’s previous classics.The future is not what it used to be.In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people aremore curious than ever to know what lies ahead.Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet? Orcan science and technology allow us to innovate our way outof trouble? Perhaps a greater social consciousness andcommunity-based living will take over. Or, conversely, thecompetition for limited resources may result in everyoneﬁghting for them.Drawing on these four possible futures, Richard Watson andOliver Freeman invite us to examine critically the risks andopportunities to come. They discuss the key factors – trends,critical uncertainties, and wildcards – that will shape the future,guiding us to a greater awareness of long-term problems andpossible solutions, and empowering us not only to adapt towhat might happen, but also to shape our future and togenerate change.It’s impossible to know for certain what the future holds, but wecan remove some of its surprises by engaging in a meaningfuldebate about the choices we face now.This book shows us how.Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized,business tool that can be of immense value to a companys strategic planning process. It allowscompanies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on theircompetitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emergebeyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about thepossible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you:Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could changethe political, social, and economic landscapes and signiﬁcantly impact your business; explorethe impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business,and examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems todayThis bookwill help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?FuturevisionScenarios for the worldPublisher & date: Scribe PublicationsBy: Richard Watson & Oliver FreemanISBN-13:9781922070098ISBN-10:1922070092ScenarioPlanningPublisher & date: John Wiley & Sons Inc(May 1, 2012)By: Woody WadeISBN 13: 9781118170151ISBN 10: 111817015601/2013myForesight®3131
34. One correlation that we shall consider is that asthe population rises, the amount of wastegenerated will also increase. Archaeologist E. W.Haury once cited that‘Whichever way one viewsthe mounds [of waste], as garbage piles to avoid,or as symbols of a way of life, they…are thefeatures of more productive information than anyothers.’ Archaeological excavations have yieldedthicker cultural layers from periods of prosperity;correspondingly, modern waste-generation ratescan be correlated to various indicators ofopulence, including gross domestic product(GDP)/capita, energy consumption/capita andproduct consumption/capita.In the modern world that we live in, waste impliesunnecessary depletion of natural resources,unnecessary costs, and environmental damage.Sustainable waste management is about usingresources more eﬃciently. In most developedand developing countries with increasingpopulation, prosperity and urbanization, itremains a major challenge for municipalities tocollect, recycle, treat and dispose of increasingquantities of solid waste and wastewater. Acornerstone of sustainable development is theestablishment of aﬀordable, eﬀective and trulysustainable waste management practices. It mustbe further emphasized that multiple public health,safety and environmental co-beneﬁts accrue fromeﬀective waste management practices whichconcurrently reduce GHG emissions and improvethe quality of life, promote public health, preventwater and soil contamination, conserve naturalresources and provide renewable energy beneﬁts.Solid waste management is a major challenge forMalaysia to address in the light of Vision 2020which lays out the direction for Malaysia tobecome a fully developed nation by 2020. TheNational Strategic Plan (2005) estimated that31,500 tons of solid waste will be generated perday by 2020. Current waste production stood at25,000 tons per day and from the currentprojection based on the waste generation trend,42,780 tons of waste is going to pile up in thelandﬁll by 2020 in a ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU)assumption which is more than the forecastedearlier. If the solid waste is not managedeﬃciently and eﬀectively, it will give rise tonegative impact to the health of the localcommunity and environment.3201/2013 myForesight®viewpointsThe world we now live in is withstanding many serious challenges.A fast-growing human population and the consequent mountingdemand for food, energy and water are the most critical issues toaddress. In addition, anthropogenic climatic change is a severethreat to mankind and requires that we significantly reduce ourcurrent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avoid detrimentalconsequences for the globe. Global demand and prices for thehuman necessities have been resilient during the recession, leadingpolicy-makers in countries with the potential to increase productionto look to that sector as a potential engine for economic growth.Agriculture,Land Use & Forestry14%Waste Management10%Buildings2%Manufacturing21% Transport16%Energy37%BYMuhammad Hasif Hasanhasif@might.org.mywASTE NoTwASTEDFigure 1 Malaysia CO2 Emission by Sector %Source : Second National Communication, NRE
35. Act 672 provides that almost the entire valuechain is under the mandate of the government.Since most of the waste end-up in landﬁll,another way to take a look at it is by improvingthe current operation of disposal. Currently,Malaysia has 296 landﬁlls (dumpsite), 165 of themare in operation and 131 not in operation. Out ofthis total, only eight are sanitary landﬁlls.A sanitary landﬁll has features consisting of liners,leachate collection and treatment, gas harvesting,and daily and ﬁnal covers. A typical dumpsite is aMSW site without facilities such as liner orleachate collection/treatment.The long-standing landﬁll problem has aﬀectedalmost everyone in the country. The landﬁllsproduce gases that consist of carbon dioxide,methane, hydrogen sulphide, ammonia and othertraces of gas. They can be harvested, treated andapplied for electricity generation or direct heatingif not being ﬂared. Methane is known to be one ofthecontributorstoglobalwarming.Thegenerationof these gases is the consequence of the amountof waste being deposited.Besidescausingsocialandenvironmentalproblems,landﬁllsarealsoeconomicallydetrimental,andeightsanitarylandﬁllsisdeﬁnitelyinsuﬃcientforMalaysia.Another take away point is to improve the overallindustry structure by dedicating dedicated foodwaste collection.The sorting has to start at home,and there should be a specially designedcollection vehicle with the sole purpose to collectfood waste and channel them to a treatmentplant. What is with the food waste anyway?Foodwasteisthesourceofcarbons,tightenedupbystrongchemicalbondingwhich,iftreatedtherightway,canproduceenergy,biogas,andsludgeforcomposting.InMalaysia,about50%oftheMSWportionoriginatesfrom food waste which is expected to be 13,500million tonnes/day by 2020.One way of removing the burdening of landﬁll isby removing its food waste share.Since food waste will generate methane from itsabundancecarbonsource,aproperutilizationwouldenable a more consistent generation of biogas orenergy. A case study in UK indicates that it currentlyhas a total of 222 anaerobic digestion plants,whichproducemorethan1.3Terrawatthours(TWh)of electricity a year. Studies have shown that thiscapacityhasthepotentialtoincreaseverysigniﬁcantlyto11TWhby2020,enoughtopowerabout2,500,000homes,whichisroughly10%oftheUK’shouseholdsspeciﬁcally generated power from food wastBesides anaerobic digestion, options for treatingMSW include incineration and compost.The table1 summarize the option for MSW treatment.AnaerobicDigestion-HugePotentialAnaerobic Digestion (AD) is a process whichbreaks down organic compounds – includingwaste – to produce biogas and nutrient-richdigestate. AD is important because biogas is arenewable energy which may help Malaysiareduces its reliance on fossil fuel. When AD useswaste feedstock, it diverts material from landﬁll,a priority as we have a dwindling number ofsuitable landﬁll sites and are committed tocomplying to the ultimate target of nothing goesto waste (dumpsite).AD is a treatment process that breaks downorganic material with microorganisms in theabsence of air. It has been used in the world toprocess sewage sludge for over 100 years, but itsfull potential for treating other materialsincluding food and farm wastes and purpose-grown crops has only been recognised in thepast decade. AD produces energy at all hours ofthe day regardless of weather conditions, unlikeother renewable sources such as wind, solarand tidal energy.Cryrogelfor low-temperatureapplications(-200°C - 90°C)((((-applications-222222200000000000000°CCCCCCCCCCCC - 99999990000000°CCCCCCC))))))))))))))Generation Collection Transport DisposalRecovert/Treatment• Generation ofsolid waste athouseholds/commercial• Sorting waste• Scheduling ofcompactors ortrucks for wastecollection• Providing binsfor recyclables• Transportationof waste tosites fortransfers,recovery, ordisposal• Secondarysorting of waste,e.g. plastic, glass,paper,aluminium• Treatment andrecovery of otherwaste streams• Landfilling orincineration• EnviromentalmanagementBAU5% recyling,no treatmentfacilities22%recyling,no treatmentfacilities40%diversion(Recyling +MRF +Treatment)100% diversion(Recyling + MRF+ Treatment)Year 2020:42.78 milliontonne Co2equivalent fromWaste landfilling 25% CO2equivalentreduction2020 Target38% CO2equivalentreduction57.7% CO2equivalent-25%-38%-57.7%3301/2013myForesight®viewpointsSource: PEMANDU Lab on SWM, 2011Measures are being taken to meet this challenge.Malaysia is on the verge of a signiﬁcant changefollowing the passing of the SolidWaste and PublicCleansing Management Act 2007, the main tenetsofwhichunderpintheinstitutionalisationofstrategiesand procedures for solid waste management.Thislegislation brings management of solid wastedirectlyundertheFederalGovernment’sjurisdiction,allocates responsibilities to newly establishedagencies, redeﬁnes the role of local authorities,and aims to improve the collection, recycling anddisposal of solid waste throughout PeninsularMalaysia.Thechangestotheadministrativestructurearesubstantialandtheinfrastructuralimprovementswill be extensive but, to be eﬀective, both requiremajor changes in established disposal practicesand in public attitudes and behaviour.UndertheEconomicTransformationProgram(ETP),developmentofeﬃcientSolidWasteManagement(SWM)is provided under the Greater Kuala Lumpur/Klang Valley key economic areas. There are fourmajor initiatives:1. Increase Reduce, Reuse, Recycle (3R)implementation byi) Creating a recycling ecosystem whichincludes composting to stimulate wastedisposal reduction and target a recyclingrate of 40 per cent by 2020 from the current11 per cent;ii) Introducing composting and anaerobicdigestion to tackle high levels of organicwaste; andiii) Stimulating Construction and Demolition(C&D) waste recycling with a proper systemand a recycling facility.2. Increasewastetreatmentcapacitytoreducethe amount of solid waste disposed in thelandfill.3. Improvegovernanceofsolidwastemanagementand public cleansing services.4. Assess future potential for leveraging newdevelopments in technology like automaticwaste collection systems and deep bins toimprove waste collection standards.The IndustrySolid Waste Management Value Chain
36. A renewable natural biogas comprised mostly ofmethane and carbon dioxide is emitted. It isextremely versatile and can displace the use ofnon-renewable natural gas. Biogas from AD canbe used for:1. Direct combustion – combined heat andpower (CHP) Generators convert biogas intoelectricity which can be transferred to thenational electricity grid and provide heat forlocal use.2. Injectionintothegrid–biogascanbeprocessedtoProducebio-methanewhichcanbecompressed/liqueﬁed to make CNG fuel or injected into thenational gas grid where it can be stored withnatural gas.Both of these options create clean and renewableenergy from the biogas produced by AD. Apartfrom the energy part, AD also produces a residualnutrient-rich digestate which accounts foraround 90% of the original feedstocks mass. Thedigestion process preserves nitrogen andreleases other nutrients contained in the organiccompounds of the feedstock, includingphosphates. Digestate is a renewable fertiliserwhich can displace greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions associated with the creation ofconventional inorganic phosphate fertilisers.When produced in close proximity to agriculturalland, digestate also saves transportation costsassociated with commercial synthetic fertilisers.In liquid form, it also penetrates through to croproots unlike granular fertilisers which rely on rainor irrigation.ChallengesImplementation of approach has always been anissue, especially since the culture in the countryitself did not warrant for any proper treatment.First and foremost, the challenge faced by thetechnology is the amount of manual sortingneeded. Even if the source separation is in place,there will be room for contamination by metals,chemicals and other inorganic material. Beforeany AD treatment takes place, the sourceseparation still requires the removal of impurityof the feedstock which will hinder the eﬃciencyof the process itself. As far as the technology isconcern, there is no eﬃcient process of removingthis impurities and the best we can hope is thatpeople do their source separation properly athome. The collection authority will then collectthe waste separately and source the organicbased waste into AD treatment. As removing theﬁrst barrier is crucial, massive education andawareness program should be introduced for thecommunity to be inculcated.Digestate as by product of AD process is veryhigh in nutrient content, thus suitable for soilconditioning. Since Malaysia is the second largestoil palm plantation country in the world, theopportunity to supply digestate as chemicalreplacement for the traditional manure certainlyis in line with the sustainability concept.The question is, if the organic source comesfrom non-halal eateries or household which isdiﬃcult to keep track of, are we willing to use thatas fertilizer?On the micro-scale of project, the uncertainty ofthis project will hinder the commercial entityfrom participating in the industry. Many ADschemes have struggled to secure ﬁnancing. ADschemes’ small size rules out non-recourseproject ﬁnance, and the signiﬁcant risks inherentin operating an AD plant generally mean thatthey have to be funded with a signiﬁcantproportion of equity with any debt fully securedon assets. The ﬁnancier will also rely on the abilityto secure feedstock and the threshold ofﬂuctuation that the process can tolerate. This ishighly dependent on the amount of waste, whichis not under the process control. The project willalso rely on the Feed in Tariﬀ (FiT) for revenuewhich, on current rate, is relatively low. Market forthe methane gas from AD is not fully developed.Standards for methane for transportation, andalso engine acceptance will need further R&Dbefore any commercialization can takes place.Final SayAD has the potential to remove dependency onlandﬁlls which is currently a problem in thecountry. Apart from the potential the AD isproducing, AD also oﬀers environmental beneﬁtsin reducing GHG emission. The sustainabilityconcept is applied in all aspect of the process,thus creating a greener way of treating waste.HeatCHPBiogasBiofertiliser(digestate)ElectricityBiowastePre-treatmentAnaerobicDigestionBiowastePost-treatment3401/2013 myForesight®viewpointsMalaysia is on the vergeof a significant changefollowing the passing ofthe Solid Waste and PublicCleansing ManagementAct 2007, the main tenetsof which underpin theinstitutionalisation ofstrategies and proceduresfor solid wastemanagement.Table 1Anaerobic Digestion (AD) Plant ConfigurationCompost Incinerator Landfill Anaerobic(dumpsite) Digestion (AD)Outputs Compost Electricity, heatash None Biogas, digestateNutrientRecovery Yes No No YesWasteTaken Garden, food Any Any Food, garden, farmReduce Reduces methane Reduces methaneEmissions Yes but emits carbon No and carbon dioxidedioxide significantlySaleableProduct Yes Yes No YesEnergy Yes (100 KW-2Recovery No Yes (20-60 MW) No MW)**AD generates biogas which can either be flared for power, or through gas cleansing a product of CNG can be generated topower transportation industry.
37. Nurturing Today’s Talentfor Future LeadersIntroductionIn order for nations to be developed, Capacity Building and Talent Development (CBTD) in Science, Technology andInnovation (STI) is extremely crucial as these are now considered as the means to enhance the economic competitivenessof industrialised countries. The emerging technologies have drastically changed over the years as the economic sectormove from one phase to the next. There is also a need for capable personnel to be leaders in the new emergingtechnologies who are able to take charge of the business. Globally, the use of Information Communication Technology(ICT) in the digital era has made communications more accessible at high speed.This has increased the competitivenessof all industries. To be ready to face all these challenges, new breed of engineers and technical experts are needed inall technological sectors.The Government hasintroduced variousmeasures, focusing on thedevelopment oftalent at all levels: primaryeducation, through to secondaryand tertiary levels, and onwardsto the working level.Abd. Rahim Abu Talib, Ph.DChief Operating OfficerAerospace MalaysiaInnovation Centre (AMIC)email@example.comDr Badariah SallehSenior ConsultantMight-Meteor AdvancedManufacturing Sdn. Bhdbadariah@ami.net.myBYJasmin BabaExecutive DirectorMight-Meteor AdvancedManufacturing Sdn. Bhdjasmine@ami.net.my01/2013myForesight®35viewpoints
38. The Human Capital Development through SRI isa critical enabler to help transformation of theworkforce and workplace (Figure 2).This involvesthe implementation of strategic programmesparked under six key policy areas that includemodernisinglabourlegislation,focusingonupskillingandupgradingtheworkforce,strengtheninghumanresource management, leveraging on women’stalent to increase productivity, undertaking alabour market forecast and survey programme,and enhancing labour safety net by introducingunemployment (Figure 3).Figure 1 12 National Key Economic Areas: Focussed Approach to Economic Growth (PEMANDU, 2011)Figure 2 6 Strategic Reform Initiatives: Boosting the Nation’s Competitiveness (PEMANDU, 2011The success of Malaysias economic transformation will rely greatly on the quality of its workforce. Recognising this, the EconomicTransformation Programme(ETP) has identiﬁed Human Capital Development as a Strategic Reform Initiative (SRI) that cuts across all 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) (Figure 1).Malaysia has transformed its economicgrowth strategy from input driven to onethat is increasingly driven by knowledge. Thisnotable economic transformation could not beachieved and sustained without signiﬁcant andconsistent investments from the public andprivate sector in nurturing talent, as well asdeveloping an ecosystem in which talent candevelop and thrive.Recognising the importance of human capitaldevelopment in driving the nation forward,Malaysia has committed substantial resources inimproving and enhancing its talent pool over thelast ﬁve decades. The Government hasintroduced various measures, focusing on thedevelopment of talent at all levels: primaryeducation, through to secondary and tertiarylevels, and onwards to the working level. Theseeﬀorts are intended to cultivate and improve thetalent and capabilities of Malaysia’s workforce,which forms the bedrock of the nation’ssocioeconomic growth.Greater Kuala LumpurKlang ValleyFinancial ServicesCompetition,Standards &LiberalisationTourismEducationCommunications Content& InfrastructureBusiness ServicesHealthcarePublic Finance Public ServicesDeliveryNarrowingDisparityGovernment’s Rolein BusinessHuman CapitalDevelopmentAgricultureElectronics & ElectricalWholesale & RetailOil, Gas & Energy Palm oil & Rubber16781151562 34910 122 3 401/2013 myForesight®36viewpoints
39. 01/2013myForesight®viewpoints37Thechallengeaheadshouldnotbeunderestimated.According to the World Bank Malaysia EconomicMonitor report titled, "Brain Drain" noted that thecountry has to work on improving its highereducationandattracttalentandskilled labour whilemanaging the emigration of highly skilledpeople.To bridge the skills gap, the Human CapitalDevelopmentStrategicReformInitiative(SRI)whichcomes under the Ministry of Human Resource(MoHR)isrollingouttheimplementationofstrategicprogrammes parked under six key policy areas asmentioned earlier. The SRI has identiﬁed "quickwins"toaddressimmediatekeyskillsgapsinseveralsectors which include Oil, Gas and Energy (OGE),Electrical and Electronics (EE), CommunicationsContent and Infrastructure (CCI), and BusinessServices as well as Outsourcing and Data Centers.The up-skilling has the following main benefits:• Enhanceandsharpentheskillsofthecandidates• Practice based curriculum• Exposure to the industrial practice• Providepracticalknowledgeofbusinesssituationsand brainstorming solutions to the same• Real time monitoring of learner path andcapabilities• User deﬁned modules and granular learningsupport• Aims to encourage candidates to developpoise, grace and conﬁdence• Fulﬁllthegapbetweendesiredandexistingskills• Asuccessful,provenandmarkettestedconcept• Provision for instant evaluation and feedbackfor further improvement• Fastest ramp-up time for knowledge/skillenhancementbasedonthelatestITenvironment• Engagingandinteractivelearningenvironment• Commitment to provide quality programsand trainingGraduate Employability Issues andChallengesQuote from the Prime Minister’s Budget Speech(September, 2012)POLICYAREASStrengthenhuman resourcesmanagement Enhance laboursafety net byintroducingunemploymentUndertake alabour marketforecast andsurvey programmeFocus onupskilling andupgradingthe workforceLeverage onwomen’s talentto increaseproductivityModernise labourlegislationFigure 3 Strategic programmes under the six key policy areas (reproduced fromTalent Roadmap 2012)Figure 4 Issues in graduate employability (reproduced from GE Blueprint 2012)”“Every year about 180,000students graduate withdiplomas and degreesfrom institutions of higherlearning. The Governmentwill launch the GovernmentEmployability (GE)Blueprint to assistunemployed graduates bythe end of 2012. The GEBlueprint focuses onstrengthening theemployability of graduates.The Government willestablish a GraduateEmployability Taskforcewith an allocation ofRM200 million.Sixmajorissuesconcerninggraduateemployabilitythat need urgent attention have been identiﬁed(Figure 4). It includes unknown market size andneedsforahighincomeeconomy,unknownintakeand exit attributes except for a few professionalcourses, poor intake attributes, the notion thatindustryprefersready-madeinsteadoffundamentals,stop-gap measures versus immersion at IHL level,and not obtaining the right choice of courses.Issues inGraduateEmployabilityUnknown marketsize and needs fora high incomeeconomythe notion thatindustry prefersready-madeinstead offundamentalsstop-gapmeasures versusimmersionat IHL levelpoor intakeattributesunknown intakeand exit attributesexcept for a fewprofessionalcoursesnot obtainingthe right choiceof courses
40. 01/2013 myForesight®38To achieve the target of 33 % workforce in thehighly skilled category by 2015 and 50% by year2020, the country is under immense pressure toovercome what is seen as a top investmentobstacle; skill issues. It is imperative that eﬀorts toimprove this dire need which is plaguing our nationare not only implemented eﬀectively, but speedily.Currently, the government through the Ministryof Higher Education (MoHE) has conducted manyinitiatives to overcome the Graduate Employability(GE) issues. Among others GE enhancementprogrammes is Degree++ Programme, wherebystudents obtain additional high-end certiﬁcatesthat are recognized by industry on top of thedegree that they have received. MoHe also hascreated the Bridging Gap Programme wheregraduates need to be trained according to theattributes required before being placed in theindustry. Some of the other initiatives includeEntrepreneurship Programme, ApprenticeshipProgramme, and Finishing Schools Programme.Solution through High Value CBTDApproachMiGHT-Meteor Advanced Manufacturing (MMAM)Sdn. Bhd. has been spearheading the CapacityBuildingTalent Development (CBTD) programmeinitiatives. The stages of implementation ofMMAM’s CBTD strategy are as follows:1) IdentifyknowledgeandResearchandTechnology(R&T) areas being developed by universities,researchinstitutesandcentersofexcellence(COE)2) Identifyindustrypartnerstomatchtechnologicalareasto jointly develop and apply and commercialise.in on going and future national mega projects3) Apply and integrate Technology DevelopmentManagement(TDM)forResearchandTechnology(R&T) and Human Capital Development (HCD)programs forprioritisedtechnologicaldevelopment4) Determine industrial technological productbeingdesigned,produced,applied,andsupportingstrategic government procured projects.5) Collaborate with global industry playersundertaking technological projects, especiallyfor the Government.6) Identify technological gaps and determine thesource of technology available and transferablefrom foreign partners, in collaboration withlocal Lead Companies7) CoordinatecollaborativeCBTDprogrambetweenIndustry players, Universities and technologyproviders8) Preparetechnologicalmodules,syllabus,timeline,selection and manage engagement of allparties involveExamples of innovative CBTD programs for HTIwhich are implemented as high impact nationalinitiatives:LEADER(LeadershipinDomainExpertise)SeriesLEADER’s program is a unique Human CapitalDevelopment program in line with the NationalKey Economic Area (NKEA) towards a high incomenationby2020.TheprogramissponsoredbyMinistryof Higher Education (MOHE) and targeted at freshengineering graduates from Public Universities.The programme has been successfullyimplemented for 24 engineers in Aerospacesector. Currently, another 150 engineers are beingtrained under the LEADER programme in Oil andGas, Green Technology (Solid State Lighting),Electrical & Electronics (Wafer Fabrication and ICDesign) and Instrumentation Control. Theprograms focus on specialised contents, casestudies and industrial practices which arenecessary to make the graduates more valueadded and employable with accredited contentsfrom industries which are recognised globally.This is the winning strategy which brings impactand shows the Government’s seriousness toprepare the human capital and gain conﬁdencefrom industry to invest in Malaysia.TeSSDE (Technology Specialist in SpecificDomain Expertise)TeSSDE is a unique human capital developmentprogram in line with the economictransformation program (ETP) towards a high-income nation by 2020. The program issponsored by Economic Planning Unit (EPU) viaTalentCorp and targeted at fresh engineeringgraduated from public universities.This is similar in approach and concept to LEADERSeries but shorter in duration and customisedfor all industries cross cutting all sectors.Currently implemented for 675 engineers inhighvalue, strategic clusters such as Oil & Gas,Maritime, Green Tech, EE, Renewable Energy,Sensor vRFID, Telecommunication HSBB, Mobiletelecommunication, Design and DigitalEngineering, Avionics involving local universitiesand Multi-National Companies (MNCs),Government Link Companies (GLCs) and SMEs.NationalTalentEnhancementProgramme(NTEP)The National Talent Enhancement Programme(NTEP) is a 12-month traineeship programinitiated by the Government under the EconomicTransformation Programme’s (ETP) HumanCapital Development (HCD). As an initiativeunder the PEMANDU Strategic Reform Initiative(SRI) program, it is targeted towards the Rail,Maine and Aerospace sectors. The objective ofthe NTEP is to accelerate the development ofgraduates and skilled professional workforcethrough a partnership and collaboration with theprivate sector. It aims to build a talent pool ofskilled workforce via industry relevant skillstraining and on-the-job practical exposure.Currently implemented for 100 engineers in Rail,Marine and Aerospace sectors.Demand of Engineering TalentsActions that need to be addressed to acceleratetalents development especially in the HighTechnology Industry (HTI) for transformationagendaincludesreducingunemployment,enhancingskills and accelerating career development,sustaining continuous Life Long Learning (LLL),fulﬁlling speciﬁc competency needs of industriesand enticing potential foreign investors.The High Technology Industry (HTI) Engineers isakeyenablertobecomingahightechnologynation.There is a dire need to create critical mass of HTIEngineers to sustain Malaysia’s competitiveness.It has been reported in the ETP Roadmap forMalaysia that the total demand of HTI Engineersby the year 2020 is approximately 125,000. Inorder to achieve the required number of highlyspecialized engineers, the government and theprivate sectors have to spend a huge amount ofmoney for the training programme. Figure 5below shows the estimated number of HTIengineers in various strategic sectors required bythe nation in year 2020.Figure 5 Demand of High Technology Comparison between apprentice model and current modelAerospaceAgricultureBiotechDesignEEGreenTechOil &GasRailPalmOil IndustryMarineTelecommunicationAutomotive10000200003000040000500002012202060000NumberofEngineersviewpoints
41. 01/2013myForesight®39viewpointsThe IMBE model is based on three main elementsthat include Professionally Certiﬁed Modules,Industry Recognised Training and AcademicallyCertiﬁed Programmes as shown in Figure 7. ThemainpurposesofIMBEprogrammeare(i)toenhancetheindustry-lededucationandtrainingprogramme,(ii) to facilitate ﬂexible educational programscompliable to professional certiﬁcations as wellas to academic recognitions, (iii) to release theeducation delivery approach from the rigidity,unsustainable conventional systems, (iv) tointegrate and coordinate the various HCD relatedprogramssuchasIndustrialPhD,Degree++,TeSSDE,LEADER, NTEP etc. and (v) to establish the ﬁrst ofits kind Industrial Modular Based Education systemthus placing Malaysia as the pioneer in sustainable,future-proof professional-educational system.Industrial Modular Based EducationMMAMisworkingcloselywithSigniﬁcantTechnologySdn. Bhd to craft a training programme calledIndustrial Modular Based Education (IMBE) inorder to support the government initiatives toprovidetherequiredHTIengineers.IMBEisaModulebased Teaching, Learning and Assessment. Theregistration and enrolment also were based onmodule whereby the student will take oneModule at a time. The module is intensive andbased on short course styled classes. Industry-ledmodules are prepared through inputs fromprofessionals and academics. Severalstandardized Modules make up a regular Course.All Modules are Professionally Certiﬁed, and canbe aggregated into Academic Courses andfurther into Academic Programs recognized byhigher institutions. IMBE programme usedProgressive Conferment Model, wherebystudents are conferred with an academicqualiﬁcation accordingly, at each stage of hisstudy. Furthermore, IMBE also uses ProgressiveCareer Development Model, whereby studentscan be employed at any stage of his study.Figure 6(a) and 6(b) show the comparisonbetween the conventional education systemswith the new Industrial Modular Based Education.It can be clearly seen that there exist academic-industry gap in the conventional system, wherethe students need to complete the 3 or 4 yearsof studies before entering the career orprofessional development. On a contrary, IMBEprovides academic-professional integration pathand ﬂexibility for the students to migrate fromacademic institution to the industry and back toacademic institution.Figure 6(a) Conventional Education SystemFigure 6(b) Industrial Modular Based Education SystemSeveral standardizedModules make upa regular Course. AllModules are ProfessionallyCertified, and can beaggregated into AcademicCourses and further intoAcademic Programsrecognized by higherinstitutions.Traditional Academic-Industrypost-education linkCONVENTIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEMEDUCATIONALINSTITUTIONSACADEMIC AWARDACADEMIC COURSEACADEMIC TRANSCRIPTINDUSTRIAL EMPLOYERSINDUSTRIAL COMMITMENTSCHEMELOI/OL/MOAPROFESSIONAL TRAININGPROVIDESPROFESSIONALBODIESPROFESSIONAL CERTIFICATEPROFESSIONAL COURSE21343-4 yrs of education mustbe copleted before onecan begin his/hercareer/professionaldevelopmentAcademic IndustryGAPTraditional Academic-Industrypost-education linkAcademic-Professional integration pathExpeditedcareer pathIndutry based Modules forProfessional certs.Source:MMAM/SigtechINDUSTRIAL MODULAR BASED EDUCATION SYSTEMEDUCATIONALINSTITUTIONSACADEMIC AWARDACADEMIC TRANSCRIPTINDUSTRIAL EMPLOYERSINDUSTRIAL COMMITMENTSCHEMELOI/OL/MOAPROFESSIONAL TRAININGPROVIDESCERTIFICATE OFACKNOWLEDGMENTPROFESSIONALBODIESPROFESSIONAL CERTIFICATEMODULEPROFESSIONAL COURSE43521ACADEMIC PROGRAMSCIENCES,TECHNOLOGIES & MANAGEMENT:NKRA, NKEA, MIGHT’s FOCUSED AREASIMBE Operation, Coordination and ManagementACADEMIC PROGRAMACADEMIC COURSE
42. 01/2013 myForesight®40Conclusion:It has been discussed that for eﬀective growth ofHigh Technology Industry, the integration ofCapacity Building and Talent Development(CBTD) need to be taken care by taking stock thecurrent situation of the industry and institutionalsynergy between all the stake holders comprisingthe academia, technology partners, industryplayers, COEs, government agencies and themost important beneﬁciary of the initiative thatis the graduates themselves. The ecosystem offunding, training and research must be madeavailable such that HTI issues can be appreciatedthrough clear and targeted government policyand agenda.The success of CBTD programs whichintegrate all the collaborators in a synchronous,harmonious, well-structured and managedapproach as disclosed are manifestation of thequintuple helix model of collaboration at its best.IMBE model is proposed to be the way forward inCapacity Building Talent Development tocomplement the existing tertiary educationsystem. Cost of training is cheaper under IMBE.Hence, it is aﬀordable, ﬂexible while quality ismaintained (qualiﬁcation awarded and recognizedby universities) and complementing the tertiaryeducation.‘Each of you is a Leader and each of you will beheld responsible for his leadership’– Hadith BukhariAcknowledgementsSpecial thanks to Prof. Dr. Khazani Abdullah fromSigniﬁcant Technology and MMAM’s staﬀsespecially Pn Jasmin Baba (Executive Director), DrBadariah Salleh (Managing Consultant), AishaRidzuan and Norhayati Mohd Zaini for theircontributions in completing the article.For effective growth ofHigh Technology Industry,the integration of CapacityBuilding and TalentDevelopment (CBTD) needto be taken care by takingstock the current situationof the industry andinstitutional synergybetween all the stakeholders comprising theacademia, technologypartners, industry players,COEs, governmentagencies and the mostimportant beneficiary ofthe initiative that is thegraduates themselves.Figure 7 Industry Modular Based Education ModelPROFESSIONALLYCERTIFIEDACADEMICALLYCERTIFIEDIMBEINDUSTRYRECOGNISEDReferencesAgensi Inovasi Malaysia (2011) National Biomass Strategy 2020: New Wealth Creation for MalaysiasPalm Oil IndustryChemical Industries Council of MalaysiaEconomic Planning Unit, EPU (2010) Tenth Malaysia Plan 2011-2015Environmental Expert.Com, The Environmental Industry Online, Biogas Suppliers and Companies in MalaysiaMalaysia Automotive Institute, MAI Report on Economic and Outlook Trend 2011Malaysia Development Corporation (MDEC), MSC Companies DirectoryMalaysia External Trade Development Corporation, MATRADE Electrical & Electronics Directory 2011-2013Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (2010), GreenTech Malaysia Annual ReportMalaysia Industry Government Group for HighTechnology, MiGHT (2011) Malaysian Ship Building/ Ship RepairIndustry Strategic Plan 2020Malaysian Aerospace Council (2011) AIR Malaysian Aerospace Industry Report 2011/2012Malaysian-German Chamber of Commerce & Industry (2012) Market Watch, Electrical & Electronic Industry inMalaysiaMIDA (2011) Malaysia Investment PerformanceMinistry of Higher Education, MoHE (2012) The National Graduate Employability Blueprint 2012-2017Ministry of International Trade and IndustryMinistry of Plantation Industries and Commodities Malaysia, Biofuel Policy and Development in MalaysiaPerformance Delivery Unit, PEMANDU (2009) Economic Transformation Program, A Road Map for MalaysiaPerformance Delivery Unit, PEMANDU (2011) Economic Transformation Program, Annual Reportviewpoints
43. 01/2013myForesight®41CTRMCOMPOSITES TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH MALAYSIA SDN BHDT02, 3rd Floor, 2310 Century Square, Jalan Usahawan, 63000 Cyberjaya, Selangor, MalaysiaT: +603 8313 5100 F: +603 8313 5111 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org www.ctrm.com.myComposite Aero Structure • General Aviation MRO • Composite RepairComposite Testing • Defense • Composite Marine • Systems IntegrationUnmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) • Engineering & DesignComposite Automotive • Composite Mass Transport
44. 01/2013 myForesight®42The world faces the ‘urgent challenge’ of creating 600 millionproductive jobs over the next decade in order to generatesustainable growth and maintain social cohesion.In developing countries,unemployment tendsto be higher amongmore educated youth,leading to the problemof educatedunemployment.EDUCATION AND SKILL LEVELS OF LABOUR FORCE,MALAYSIA V.S. SELECTED ECONOMIES87%12.7%OF YOUTH LIVEIN DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESJob Opportunities:The UrgentChallengeFrom CradleTo CareerIN MALAYSIAFOR EVERYCHILDREN100 ATTENDPRIMARYSCHOOLFINISHPRIMARYSCHOOLATTEND UPPERSECONDARYSCHOOLFINISH UPPERSECONDARYSCHOOLRECEIVETERTIARYEDUCATION78AYATTENDPRIMARSCHOOLFINISHPRIMARYSCHOOLFINISHUPPERNDARYHOOLPPERARYSECONDARSCHOOLRETERTEDUCARYOLRECEIVERTIARYUCATIONRECERTUC66974655Labour force with Tertiary Education (%) 2007Soled labour force (%) 2008MALAYSIAUnemployed youthsUnemployed adultHONG KONG, CHINAREPUBLIC OF KOREAFINLANDOECD AVERAGE23.428.035.9SINGAPOREGLOBALLY,YOUTHS ARENEARLY 3X ASLIKELY ASADULT TO BEUNEMPLOYED12.7%Source: ILOExcerpt from 1st National Entrepreneurial Educators Forum(NEEF) 2012Source: OECDSource: ILO51.043.825.636.035.029.327.437.634.8
45. 01/2013myForesight®43Young men and woman today buildthe foundations for the economiesand societies of today and tomorrow.They bring energy, talent andcreativity to economies and makeimportant contributions as productiveworkers, entrepreneurs, consumers,agents of change and as membersof civil societyJOBSMALAYSIA : (AS OF DEC 2011)RECORDED 303 VACANCIESFOR GRADUATES FROMA TOTAL OF 30,413VACANCIES BY INDUSTRYUNEMPLOYED27%EMPLOYED45%FURTHER STUDY18%WAITING FOR JOBPLACEMENT8%ENHANCING SKILLS2%Source: MOHRI’M HIRED:The StatSource: JobstreetEMPLOYABILITY5000Manufacturing/ProductionFinancial &BankingConstruction Wholesale &RetailICT100001500020000250003000020082009201035000TOP 5 INDUSTRIESWITH HIGHEST JOB POSTINGS0NEW CAREERS TO COMEClimate EngineeringIndustryEducation ServicesWater traders, Land right traders,business consultant for climatechange compliancePersonal EnhancementAdvisors, Robot CounsellorsGenetic Hacker, ClimateChange ReversalSpecialist, Hydrogen FuelStation ManagerMind Reading Specialist,Cybrarians, MemeticsManager/Analyst, PersonalLearning ProgrammerNano-Farming /Medic IndustrySynthetic Life Trader, BusinessConsultant For Nano-health,Nano-economistGenomics Developer,Insect-based FoodDevelopers, Nano-medicRobotics Industry Robot Designers / Trainers,Robot Mechanic, IntelligentAgent DesignersMonorail Designer, QuantumComputing Specialist,Virtual-reality Actors, VehicleDevelopersECONOMY TECHNOLOGYClimate Change ComplianceAuditor, Wind Farmer, ConsumerEnergy AnalystsCulturalization Therapists,Knowledge Broker, SocialNetwork AnalystsNutritionists, Vertical Farmers,Machine LinguistHuman To Machine InterfaceController, Enhanced GamesSpecialistSOCIALVirtual Police, WeatherModification Police,Quarantine EnforcerChief NetworkingOfficer, New ScienceEthicistIn-company GeneScreener, BiometricIdentification SpecialistHealth EnhancementOfficer, Data MinerPOLITICSBioinformationistsRecycling Analyst, GreenAccounting,Drowned City SpecialistWaste Data Handler, Resource UseConsultant, Chlorophyll TechnicianOff-the-grid/off-the-netFacilitator, Solar FlightSpecialists, Scarce Metal TracerConsumer Energy Analysts,Environmental CoachesENVIRONMENTFIVE REGIONAL CITIES AND ECONOMIC CORRIDORS TOPROPEL NATIONAL TRANSFORMATION AGENDAARE THESEJOBS FOR ME ?!!>20,000JOBS817,500JOBS3.3MILLIONJOBS1.92MILLIONJOBS662,065JOBS900,000JOBSSABAHJob MinesCovernment programmes nationwide have targeted toofter a promising amount of job opportunities in the nearfuture. The Economic Transformation Programmeannounced that 3.3 million jobs are ready to be filled inorder to accelerate our economy
46. MadScientistsManiaIdealism must be polished, creativity must be inculcated andtalent must be nurtured. There are funds in helping youth toventure in business!Youths are the hope for the future, and they need to be guidedand developed to become healthy, stable individuals capableof taking up the mantle of leadership when their calling comes.Positive actions produce positive results.Since 1967, theHigher EducationPlanningCommittee hasaimed to achieveTO BECOME A STABLE INDIVIDUAL,YOUTHSA HOME MUST BEFOR YOUTHS TO THRIVEEMOTIONALLY ANDPSYCHOLOGICALLYUNTIL NOW, THE EXACT FIGURES SEEM TOFLUCTUATE; BUT THEY ALL FALL SHORT OF THEDESIRED 60 PER CENT TARGET.Parents need to playtheir part in educatingtheir childrenn: Parents should• Ensure an opencommunication• Be reasonable• Be firmTHERE IS A DECLINING INTEREST INCHOOSING SCIENCE & MATHEMATICS(S&M) STREAM IN TERTIARY LEVEL.LARGELY DUE TOHOWEVER, BASEDON OUR SURVEY,FUTURE CAREERINCLINATIONWILL BE60 40SCIENCEARTS-BASEDSTUDENTS.200MYCREATIVEVENTURE CAPITALRMMILLION2.1AMANAH IKHTIARMALAYSIA (AIM)RMMILLION300TABUNG EKONOMIKUMPULAN USAHANIAGA (TEKUN)RMMILLIONNEGATIVEPERCEPTION – S&MIS DIFFICULTNEED TO FEELNEEDEDSEEKAPPROVALREQUIREGUIDANCE FROMSOMEONE MOREMATURECONSIDERED‘DRY’ AND KILLERSUBJECTS.LACK OF SUPPORTFROM PARENTS ANDFRIENDSUNCERTAINOPPORTUNITY PLUSUNATTRACTIVECAREER PATHS ANDSALARY SCHEME60% 40%IN TECHNICAL FIELDS OTHERSMUST LEARNDISCIPLINE ANDBOUNDARIESts shouldsonablere the hope for the future, anloped to become healthy, staYouths are easilyimpressionableby the peopleand thingsaround themMassmediaSocietyPeersFamilyParentsSource: Majlis Proffesor Negara 201101/2013 myForesight®44
47. As a strategic policymaker or stakeholder, you can help map outa desired future for MalaysiaThis is an invitation by myForesight®to build a collective future.Do you find this magazine thought-provoking? Do you think wecould have done better? Perhaps you would like us to covera specific angle in the study of Foresight.Or maybe, you would like to contribute articles to myForesight®magazine? Send your feedback and articles to email@example.com Website: www.myforesight.myWe look foward to hearing from you.myForesight®teamMAP THE FUTURE