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inside August 2011 features Editor’s Notep02 Initial Thoughtsp04 Leaders Insights Envisioning Asia 2060 22 Experts Insightsp06 Foresight and Challenges in Communicating its Result to Decision Makers Industry Insightsp09 New Business Potential Via Resource Recovery in the Wastewater Sectorp15 Growing Together - Future Forum 2020: A Foresight Project for Natural Fiberp20 The Challenges of Research in Malaysia: Prioritisation of Research and Bringing Research to the Market 32 Foresight Interconnect™p14 myForesight™ Bookclub cover storyp22 Greening the Future Through Malaysian Biomass Initiatives (MBI) Trends & Issuesp32 Cloud Computing for SMEs in Malaysia: A Public Private Partnership- Unlocking the Potential of Cloud Computing for a New World of Businessp34 The National Science and Research Council 34p38 Can We Ignore Nuclear? Viewpointsp40 Foresight on Construction Technology Manufactured Housing/Industrialised Building System (IBS)p48 A Letter From The FutureEDITORIAL BOARDEDITOR-IN-CHIEF PUBLISHED BYRushdi Abdul Rahim Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High TechnologyWRITERS Prime Ministers Department 3517, Jalan Teknokrat 5Datuk Ir. Abdul Kadir Mohd Din 63000 Cyberjaya Selangor Darul Ehsan 40Claudio Chauke Nehme www.might.org.myMarcio De Miranda SantosLelio Fellows Filho FOR INQUIRIESGilda Massari Coelho myForesight™Dilip TambyrajahNik Ahmad Faizul Abdul Mallek Phone : +603 8315 7888Puvaneswary Ramasamy Fax : +603 8312 0300John Galligan E-mail : email@example.comDr. Dzaharudin Mansor Website : www.myforesight.myDr. Vilasini PillaiMuhammad Hasif Hasan DISCLAIMERAbdul Rahman Hamdan Any article included in this publication and/Patrick Ethe Raj or opinions expressed therein do not necessarilyK. Thambiratnam reflect the views of the myForesight™M.S. Shahir but remain solely those of the author(s).CONTRIBUTORS The Publisher is not to be held responsible forMohd Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri any copyright violation of articles, which have been provided by contributing writers.Natrah Mohd EmranMohd Afzanizam Mohd BahrinAni Suzila AnasAhmad Nazri AbudinMohd Kamaruzaman Abdullah
August 2011 editor’s note Initial Thoughts BY RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM Director myForesight™ firstname.lastname@example.org Talk of the future has never failed to illicit comments from individuals with diverse and marginalizing opinions. This is especially true in the form of things we need to focus on to reach our desired future. I t has been an interesting quarter for us at u Utilization of a well-known framework/model; account; social & environmental impacts, safety & myForesight. The past few months saw us security etc. It is worth to note that PEMANDU2 presenting our body of work to the global u The process must be transparent; themselves acknowledges the NKEA are not audience during the FTA conference in intended to be definitive but serves as a starting Seville, Spain; experts and colleagues in u Will be problems or issues based either point. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research realized or anticipated; (MIoIR) as well as participants of a seminar Tan Sri Dato Zulkifli’s article on envisioning organized by ISTIC-UNESCO. Whereas at u Trans-disciplinary and diverse engagement of Asia 2060 describes on the need of taking various the home front, recommendations were being stakeholders; factors into account in developing visions of the considered, uptakes on the focus areas are future. made and to be implemented into realizable u Considerations into long term impact and programmes. strategies; Through our participation of FTA conference in May, we have managed to widen our network, This is particularly true in the case of conversion u Considerations of resources and leverage on the experience of other countries that of palm oil into bio mass energy which is our competencies. has also conducted foresight initiatives. Therefore, cover story. The Malaysian Biomass initiative in this issue, we are providing the Brazilian (MBI) is a programme under the Global Science Foresight anyone? Keep watching this space for case study of the challenges in communicating Innovation Advisory Council (GSIAC) which more updates on this matter. You will find details foresight results to decision makers. was announced with much fanfare in New York on the NSRC on page 34. by our Prime Minister on the 17th of May 2011. For this issue, insights from the industry includes Leveraging on global network and expertise, Talk of the future has never failed to illicit Datuk Abdul Kadir’s piece on the business potential GSIAC will be the platform for Malaysia to tap comments from individuals with diverse and of waste water sector as well as contributions from into the knowledge of world renowned experts in marginalizing opinions. This is especially true in International Natural Fibre Organization on the their respective field in the realm on S&T. Suffice the form of things we need to focus on to reach future of natural fibre. to say that the selection of the initiative took stock our desired future. Now, it seems that everybody of the focus areas identified by myForesight. is currently jumping into the PEMANDU ETP As usual, we hope you find the magazine NKEA bandwagon. Unfortunately, there are beneficial and thought provoking. We have also presented findings that were made widespread misconceptions that anything that during the last National Technology Foresight to is not part of the NKEA is not worth taking We expect you to have your opinion on certain the newly formed National Science & Research a look. People tend to forget the NKEA are matters. We want to hear them. We welcome your Council (NSRC). One of the main tasks of the short to medium term focus areas which is feedback and contributions. NSRC was to identify and prioritize the focus intended on trying to achieve our aspirations areas for Malaysia’s R&D activities. Note that the of being developed nation by 2020. However council members pointed out that to prioritize in envisioning the future, there are other the areas, it must satisfy the following:- considerations that needs to be taken into
August 2011 leaders insights Envisioning Asia 2060 BY Professor Tan Sri Dato Dzulkifli Abd Razak Vice-Chancellor Universiti Sains Malaysia Experience has shown that countries that grow rich are not necessarily those well-endowed with natural resources but those that invest wisely in building their human capital and4 allocating a reasonable percentage of their gross domestic product to research and development. A group of experts met last week The competing interests of economics and Union may be too Eurocentric to be modelled by at Tamkang University Graduate geopolitics are still measured and characterised Asians in creating a common platform. Institute of Future Studies in Taipei by rules and procedures dictated by several to discuss "Global Transitions and international agencies marked by their vested, if Interestingly, Jeremy Rifkin made a similar Asia 2060". The broad focus of the subtle, pro-West agenda. Hence, virtually nothing observation vis-a-vis the US when he recognised meeting, co-hosted by the US-based Foundation new emerges based on the "tangibles". Asia is as early as 2005 that the American Dream was for the Future was on three areas — climate, trailing very much behind, struggling with the dying. "The American model is not working political economy and identity. The writer gave the catch-up game laid out by the West. and globalisation under American stewardship keynote address. has failed totally," he was quoted as saying In contrast, the contending view based on the (International Herald Tribune, March 26-27, The meeting came out with four possible scenarios "intangibles" is a more challenging one, drawing 2005). for the future, ranging from a borderless Asia in a from the strengths and norms that are closely changing world to one that is fragmented over and associated with, if not uniquely, Asia. He envisioned an European Dream "while trying above the current geopolitical boundaries. The to make European policies the default for the rest possibility of some of the bigger countries splitting The key argument is about bringing into focus of the world..." up into North and South, or even East and West the unifying elements that could make an Asian portions was not ruled out. "entity" based on commonalities as a source of In the same way, Asia needs to be doubly cautious cohesiveness. These are by and large the enduring about blindly emulating the existing models in Overall, perhaps the two most contentious ideas shared Asian values, without which it is difficult the West, especially in a new millennium with its in the discussions related to the issue of the to imagine even a cluster as successful as ASEAN multitude of new challenges, given the perception "tangibles" against the "intangibles". The former lasting. This is critical to realise because Asia is that a shift of gravity is taking place from the West reflected the thinking of the previous century and too diverse in terms of not only its population and to Asia as the worlds economic dynamo. was dominated by the existing Western-centric geographical size, but its level of development, matrixes despite the increasingly precarious governance and democracy, distribution of wealth, However, some are still in denial this is happening. position of the so-called "Washington consensus". as well as existing disparities. Thus, the European One view expressed in the Foreign Policy
August 2011 leaders insights 5magazine ( July-August 2009) noted that Asia is Second, unlike the Western hemisphere, its Eastern climate, for example, Asias large population basenowhere near closing the economic and military counterpart has somehow been fragmented and the worsening overall pollution trends cangap with the West. It added that Asia does not into at least "Near", "Middle" and "Far" East that cripple its future ambitions.seem to play an equally inspiring role as the West ultimately make up much of Asia. To what extentas a thought leader. It seems that we are back to the can Asia iron out the apparent differences and Similarly, on the political economic front, someimportance of the "intangibles" beyond the idea become a truly unified global force of the future? participants were mindful of Asias history that isof nation-states and the capitalist ideology being Can Asia and its rich historical, cultural and littered with conflicts for power and resources,alien to this part of the world. After all, Asian roots civilisational experiences celebrate diversity as a now that China and India are being dubbed theare more community-oriented vis-a-vis that of major unifying platform towards a more globalised new colonisers.Americans and Europeans. world? Ultimately, this will have drastic ramifications forWith respect to this, I posed three questions that Lastly, given that the Confucian, Vedic and Islamic the issue of identity for Asias existence as a uniqueAsia needs to seriously ponder if it is to make a ethics are generally pervasive throughout Asia, non-Western entity and value system amidst thedifference beginning five decades from now. First, how far can they collectively redefine the current faltering Western Dream (not just American) thatas Asia pushes forward into the future, how much global ethics that evolved during the days of the Rifkin referred to.of the current global construct can it reshape Renaissance of Western Europe? This is takingto make it more just and fair? In the previous cognizance of the fact that todays global ethics That is not to say that Asians cannot learn from thecenturies, many global agendas were pursued by are failing, as indicated by the various global experiences of others, since it is naive to assumethe industrialised countries of the global north crises extending into ecology, economics and also that Asia has all the answers — especially inthat invariably put their interests ahead of the geopolitics, which therefore need to be urgently creating a more inclusive Global Dream, one thatrest, including Asia, perpetuating an uneven revisited. has the characteristics of an Asian Dream as well.playing field. Can Asia provide a more equitableleadership? In essence, to what extent are the three dimensions of climate, political economy and identity factored This article was published in The Edge Malaysia - into the Asia 2060 equation? On the issue of 22th November 2010
August 2011 experts insights Foresight and Challenges In Communicating Its Result To Decision Makers BY Claudio Chauke Nehme1,2, Marcio de Miranda Santos1, Lelio Fellows Filho1, Gilda Massari Coelho1 1-Centre for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE) 2-Catholic University of Brasilia email@example.com This article is an excerpt from the original paper entitled “The Challenges of Communicating the Foresight Study Outcomes to Better Advise Decision Makers in Policy and Strategy Matters”. The paper was presented during the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) and Grand Societal Challenges in Seville, Spain on the 12-13th May 2011.6 sharing perceptions, free of prejudices, cultural Introduction Out-of-the-box thinking in foresight influences, and reasoning processes. This concept exercises requires that experts and other stakeholders think The Center for Strategic Studies and Management about new possibilities and collectively foresee - CGEE is a non-profit Brazilian think tank, created The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted related approaches, imagine influences and impacts in 2001 and qualified as a Social Organization by the by CGEE is related to the Learning Organization regarding a specific issue. The mindset revision with Brazilian President, and supervised by Ministry of Theory (Tosey, 2005). The idea is to establish an experts and stakeholders uses mainly qualitative Science and Technology, in order to promote Science, oriented process aiming at making decisions or approaches. Technology and Innovation (ST&I) development to advance economic growth, competitiveness and well-being in Brazil. The scope of CGEEs activities Figure 1 CGEEs Methodological Approach covers three integrated themes: foresight studies; Definition of main objectives Planning main components strategic evaluation of large programs and projects; • Public policies and information and knowledge diffusion related to 1 • Strategic directives Strategic goals • • Strategic focus Time horizon the Brazilian ST&I System. CGEE is considered an • Special coverage • Institutional and expert mobilization interface organization in the ST&I environment. It • Duration and cost has the responsibility of articulating Government, Theme selection • Methodology (Method and techniques) 2 • Governmental plans and • Consultation (Target audience, extent, frequency and reach) Private Sector, Academia, and other relevant ST&I programs • Partners representatives in the sense of gathering collective • Priority issues • Relationships with ongoing initiatives • Critical questions • Available infrastructure understanding to develop its activities. From 2001 • Dissemination strategic Themes to date, CGEE has conducted nearly 400 foresight studies and program/project evaluations, mobilizing Initial phase Main phase Commitment phase Decision Making more than 2000 experts per year coming from 300 Look and see what What seems to be happening? What can be made? What will be done? institutions. 3 is happening What is really happening? What might happen? 4 How it will be done? • Collection and organization • Information interpretation • Dissemination of results • Selection of strategic What? This article addresses the challenges of of information • Knowledge production among stakeholders. options communicating the results of foresight processes to • Diagnostics studies and • Forecast and Foresight • Workshops. • Interaction of key How? methods and techniques • Publication and Brazilian decision makers in a way that truly supports analysis (Delphi, Roadmaps, communication tools decision makers • Intelligence systems • Options for strategic their decisions. It stresses the role of intangibles Scenarios, etc) (Report, Newsletters, Implementation of the • Better understanding of Press articles, Website) as a central outcome of foresight exercises and the Results SWOT and STEEPV • Network structuring main decision (Plans, • Collective learning • Extended perception of programs, etc) importance to promote out-of-the-box thinking. dimensions • Trends • List of key technologies strategic options. • Identification of other • Shared understanding of the • Consensus and Lessons learned are presented as well as a case study. main topic future implications commitment issues for future analysis. Information Knowlegde Commitment Strategy
What? • Selection of strategic of information • Knowledge production among stakeholders. options • Diagnostics studies and • Forecast and Foresight • Workshops. • Interaction of key How? analysis methods and techniques • Publication and August 2011 decision makers • Intelligence systems (Delphi, Roadmaps, communication tools Scenarios, etc) (Report, Newsletters, • Options for strategic • Better understanding of Press articles, Website) Implementation of the • Network structuring main decision (Plans, Results SWOT and STEEPV • Collective learning • Extended perception of programs, etc) dimensions • List of key technologies strategic options. • Identification of other • Trends • Shared understanding of the • Consensus and issues for future main topic future implications commitment analysis. experts insights Information Knowlegde Commitment Strategy Figure 2 Strategies to promote out-off-the-box thought FINEP: Defined Validation process Timeline Activities Understanding Premises FINEP: Government possible Company futures Short Term (5 years) Scenarios??? ST&I System FINEP’s Policy & PACTI Future Vision Action Plans Strategy PPA FINEP: Structuring National and international actions environments Possible answers How does to FINEP’s challenges FINEP perceive Studies and External Seminars: external scenarios possible reflexions about studies vs internal context futures influence relations Trends to short, middle, and long terms Group dynamics Game of change Planning Initial Consolidation Commitment phase Second, introducing collective intelligence phase phase over phase 7Intangibles all phases of the process in a systematic manner Case study: Negotiation of the proposal is the key for achieving success (Glenn, 2010). Data Collection Final studies Brazilian Innovation Agency. Future visionHigh importance and attention isand governance model In other words, collaboration, interaction and given to thegeneration of intangibles along the development communication are all important, as well as Preliminary diagnosis This topic describes briefly how CGEE recently Future trends and potential Core competenciesof strategic foresight exercises. The process of Initiating the process attempts to design and plan the foresight exercise on FINEP future impacts conducted an organizational foresight exercise for thesharing experiences, the collective learning and with a sense of anticipation, pointing out the most Survey main federal ST&I funding agency in Brazil – FINEP, (Includes final results of the Strategic objectivesunderstanding, the creation of shared commitment difficult points and where revisions of mindsets areinterviews known as the Brazilian Innovation Agency GTs, timeline, also with stakeholders andon the main decisions to be taken and the and discussionexpected. Preliminary studies Presentation shared workshops) (Coelho, et al., 2011). FINEPs mission is to promote Strategic roadmap of the work planvision on future possibilities are all intangibles to the economic and social development in Brazil throughbe pursued. Their value many times surpasses and The foresight Timeline exercises conducted by CGEE public funding of science, technology and innovation Implementation ofcomplements tangible outcomes, such as reports the governance model Figure comprise three distinct phases, as seen inUpdated diagnosis businesses, universities, technological institutions inand publications, as they are usually absorbed as 1. The InitialBenchmarking Phase establishes the baseline of the (Includes final results of theother public and private organizations. andknowledge by those participating. GTs, benchmarking, SWOT, exercise, usually mapping what is going surveyand workshops) on related Interviews to the main issue. The Main Phase is where most The challenge of promoting out-of-the-box thinking interpretation of information takes place and was very complex in this case. It required a broad creativity is required at the bestand validation workshops Mobilization, thematic of the participant’s exercise of exploring future perspectives and aMethodological Approach capacity. Studies, scenario planning, workshops, systematic process of questioning "what is going on" and and electronic tools are applied, among others, in "what should we do differently", with the participationThere are some key elements embedded in order to revise and transform mindsets, understand of staff and a range of potential beneficiaries andCGEEs methodological approach. First and most possible futures associated to the main issues. In stakeholders. Figure 2 presents the main ideas andimportant, stakeholders must be involved in the this phase, CGEE intends to build a good decision- designed strategy on how out-of-the-box thinking wasexercise from the very beginning. They must feel making process, making it as comprehensive as implemented at the agency.comfortable and confident to participate in all possible. In the Dissemination Phase the mainphases, irrespective to the complexities involved. recommendations are fine-tuned with decision The turning point to truly revise its mindset was whenTo have them engaged, CGEE’s team must listen, makers in all their aspects and an implementation FINEP was prepared to visualize its challenges andinterpret and understand the client’s needs, strategy is first designed. a feasible strategic position for itself in the future. Indesires and preoccupations and to describe and other words, to define a challenging, yet successful,translate - to all participants, in an understandable Future Vision required a strategy which, on one hand,way - the main objectives and strategic goals taking should balance the knowledge related to the presentinto consideration possibilities, opportunities and and some relevant future possibilities, and on the otherdifferent perspectives. hand, should compare, contrast and merge the internal and external views.
FINEP: Structuringternational actions August 2011 Possible answers How does to FINEP’s challenges FINEP perceive Studies and Externall scenarios possible reflexions about studies futures influence relations Trends to short, middle, and long termsdynamics experts insights Game of change Figure 3 Methodological process for the development of FINEP/SMP situation emerges from the policy environment. The sense of timing is related to the sense of opportunity so as to create initiatives and projects Planning Initial Consolidation Commitment phase phase phase phase in the course of a government mandate. The main challenge is to introduce a long-term perception Negotiation of the proposal Data Collection Final studies Future vision and analysis to elaborate strategic foresight for the and governance model interest of the State. Preliminary diagnosis Future trends and potential Core competencies Initiating the process future impacts on FINEP Second, in the corporate sector, in general, there is Survey (Includes final results of the Strategic objectives doubt about the importance of long-term strategies. GTs, timeline, interviews Presentation and discussion with stakeholders and The sense of timing is driven by the necessity of Preliminary studies of the work plan workshops) Strategic roadmap urgent decision-making. An aptitude can be noted Timeline for a competitive intelligence approach rather than Implementation of Updated diagnosis strategic foresight. But, on the other hand, when a the governance model Benchmarking (Includes final results of the strategic foresight starts to make sense, this kind GTs, benchmarking, SWOT, of stakeholder usually invests in getting involved Interviews surveyand workshops) in the foresight exercise and, afterwards, becomes one of the most active decision makers and takes Mobilization, thematic and validation workshops advantage of the foresight outcomes. Last, the Academia circle has strong barriers in accepting strategic foresight conduction. In this The construction process, shown in Figure stakeholders – around three thousand people-, not case, time is not a problem; the scientific and 3, was participatory and involved internal and only with the process, but also – and mainly – with methodological rigor is more important and it is external stakeholders in a continuous process of its continuity. crucial to get this kind of stakeholder involved. After value addition to the information obtained in the this first moment, the strategic foresight exercise process, always searching for consensus among the This represents an important intangible gain, where becomes an extremely gratifying activity. 8 participants at the various stages of the process. the process was as important as the outcomes. Strategic foresight proved to be a powerful In concluding, the Foresight exercises are usually The planning phase included defining the strategic instrument for long-term planning, counting on exposed to some dangerous traps or milestones management plan methodology and governance a diversity of methods and techniques and, above along their applications. In order to avoid model for managing the process, motivating and all, having flexibility and resilience in its application these situations, it is important to note some mobilizing the workforce. which enabled its adaptation to the specific needs characteristics related to each group: of the study. Some premises oriented the proposal: n Government representatives frequently start The principle of participation that generates making decisions before interpreting what was n Participatory process - the involvement of commitment and the use of methods that rely obtained in the first phase (information and managers, employees, experts and stakeholders simultaneously on evidence, creativity, expertise data gathering), as discussed before. in all stages of the process. and interaction, conferred methodological robustness to the process and provided quality to n Corporate executives may have difficulties n Commitment by the senior management, the results. thinking beyond their business. Foresight regarding the process, the methodology and exercises and innovation strategies are the results obtained. interconnected and it is important to stress the possible influence and impacts from other n Strategies focused on prospective vision and on Lessons learned business segments. the definition of strategic guidelines covering horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years. The case study presented, as well as others prepared n Academia often has difficulties thinking by CGEE, identified three types of decision makers: beyond disciplinary structures. Due to a long n Thinking out-of-the-box, with the stimulus to do government, corporate, and academia. disciplinary tradition of research and learning different things differently. in the academic world, when foresight exercises Their different perspectives must be taken into and innovation strategies are applied to new n Governance model built to contribute to the consideration during the development of the future possibilities in academia, huge efforts development of the plan, validation and foresight study and when communicating its of mindset revision and transformation are application of results and with clear attribution results. Preparation and delivery timing vary needed. of responsibilities between the parties. substantially among government, corporate and academia clients, so it is very important to be aware and respect their timing. The methodological approach assured, through the participatory process, the commitment of First, the Government sector usually desires to an expressive contingent of internal and external make decisions when some problem or urgent
August 2011 industry insightsNew Business PotentialVia Resource Recoveryin the Wastewater Sector BY Datuk Ir. Abdul Kadir Mohd. Din Chief Executive Officer, Indah Water Konsortium Sdn. Bhd. 9 Biosolids Bioffluent Dewatering Biogas
August 2011 Disposed Thickening Biogas Anaerobic Digestion Dewatering Biosolids industry insights Figure 1 Typical Sewage Treatment Process - Activated Sludge System - INTRODUCTION Preliminary Treatment Secondary Treatment Historically, the first thought of sewage treatment dates back to the end of 18th Century when Coarse Grit Removal Grease Anoxic Aeration Clariﬁer septic tanks were introduced in the West. By the Screen Trap Tank Tank nineteenth century sewage treatment methods developed rapidly to meet the needs of basic Raw sanitation. Today, modern and sophisticated Inﬂuent Fine Screen Treated treatment technologies are continuously developed Eﬄuent for the purpose of protection of environmental Pump Sump RAS quality in a cost efficient manner. The key driver Screenings for this trend is the increasing need for a more Scum Sludge Treatment WAS sustainable long term solution in terms of both the Grit economics and the environment. In this regard, the current practice in safe disposal Disposed Thickening Biogas of end products from sewage treatment namely, the effluent and sewage sludge, will no longer be able Anaerobic Digestion to meet the complex environmental challenges of climate and water sensitive futures. For this, the Dewatering Biosolids sewage treatment industry needs to be transformed into a resource harvesting industry. This paper describes the paradigm shift from traditional basic Figure 2 Resource Potential from Sewage Treatment treatment to potential new business model via resource recovery in the sewerage sector. The key Sewage Treatment Plant idea is utilizing the ‘Green Technology’ and ‘Zero10 Waste Concept’ to transform the sewerage industry By-Product into a sustainable and economically attractive model. Eﬄuent Biosolids Biogas The Basic Sewage Treatment Current Fare The typical treatment process flow for a modern Discharge Dispose Flare mechanized activated sludge plant is depicted in Figure 1. Caloriﬁc Value: Methane : 65 - 70% Potential Values BOD < 50 mg/l < 3,500 kcal/kg CO2 : < 25% Basically it involves 2 main components namely: (i) COD < 100 mg/l N < 3%; P < 1%; K < 0.1% N2: < 5% Pre-treatment for grit and grease removal; (ii) Main SS < 100 mg/l Organic Matter < 50% treatment process units where the major organic and solids pollutants are removed via Biological process (ie. secondary treatment). The secondary Fertilizer/ Recycle Water Renewable Energy Renewable Energy treatment process involves a reactor or tank for biological breakdown of organic pollutant by native sewage microbes (i.e. MLSS). This basic secondary treatment technology produces clear effluent that can be discharged into the environment, whilst foot print. The latest being a variation of Sequencing Plausible scenarios were the waste sludge (WAS) is typically stabilized and dewatered into semisolid form (at 15-20% dry solid Batch Reactors, Moving Bed Bioreactor, Membrane Bioreactor, Combination of Anaerobic then created to enable content; also known as biosolids) for disposal to UASB (Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket) and the identification of landfills. If the stabilization process is involved, Aerobic systems. Although these developments technology priorities that there is anaerobic sludge digestion and biogas is produces high quality treated effluent, the waste produced as well. by-products remains typically disposed unto the is required to support the receiving environment. nation’s vision 2020. More recently technologies are focused on enhancing nutrient removal namely nitrogen and phosphorus as well as in reducing the operating energy requirement of systems as well as smaller
August 2011 industry insights Figure 3 Bioeffluent Reuse example of bio-effluent quality is shown in Figure 3. Treated effluent without any additional Parameters Units Average WHO Std MOH Std • IWK’s Pilot Project – Effluent to Recycle Water treatment was also found to be beneficial to • The results meet the WHO and MOH standard. plant growth, potentially with chlorination such Colour Hazen <5 15 15 application can be widely and applied. Such Turbidity NTU <0.5 5 5 potential needs to be realized as it will greatly Aluminium mg/l <0.01 0.2 0.2 relieve water stress areas and contribute towards Chloride mg/l <1 250 250 sustainable water resources for future. Copper mg/l <0.01 2 1 The potential benefits of biosolids reuse is far H2S mg/l <0.01 0.05 0.05 RO Units reaching. R&D studies has shown there is sufficient Iron mg/l <0.01 0.3 0.3 nutrient content in the biosolids where the typical Manganese mg/l <0.01 0.5 0.1 values of N:P:K average at 3% of the biosoilds whilst its organic matter content is typically more Sodium mg/l 5.58 200 200 than 50% and can contribute to improving soil Sulfate mg/l 1.75 400 400 CMF-S UNIT RO UNIT conditions and nutrient uptake for plant growth TDS mg/l 12.9 1000 1000 (see Figure 4). The energy value contained in Zinc mg/l 0.02 3 5 Advantages of Recycled Bioeffluent System the dry solids is also a potential to be tapped via gasification process. Analysis of typical biosolids Flouride mg/l 0.07 1.5 0.9 • No requirement for advance technology • Low capital cost from IWK plants in Malaysia show the calorific Hardness mg/l <1 30* 500 • Easy installation, operation & maintenance value ranging from 2000 to 3500 kcal/kg. Silica mg/l 0.2 10* 10* • Reliable source, quantity • Low price compare to potable water Another potential is the energy available within biogas generated from anaerobic digestion, at 65% methane composition there is a minimum Figure 4 Biosolids Reuse of 5000kcal/m3 of biogas being generated (Figure 5). For each of these potentials the Green Technology methods and approaches 11 are summarized in Table 1 and Figure 6. Green Technology is envisioned by Malaysia’s Premier Y.A.B. Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak as one of the emerging drivers Co-composting of Sewage Sludge and Vermicomposting of Municipals Solid Waste Utilisation of Sewage Sludge of economic growth for the nation. The national sewage sludge as Soil Amendment Green Technology Policy was officially launched in July 2009 which defines green technology as "the development and application of products, equipment and systems used to conserve the natural environment and resources, which minimizes and reduces negative impact of human activities”. Hence technology for resource recovery for water, Utilisation of Sewage Biosolids as Fertilizer for Sludge as Fertiliser for Non-Food Crop: Application in nutrients for soil and vegetation and renewable Various Crops Rubber Plantation energy is very much in line with our national BIOSOLIDS aspirations for a green economy that meets the Advantages of Biosolids as a Fertilizer complex demand of the impending carbon neutral and sustainable future. 1. Reduced used of chemical fertilizer 2. No smell, reliable source & quantity 3. Low capital cost, easy installation, operation & maintenance 4. Low price compared to chemical fertilizer Sewage Sludge in 5. Premium quality where biological base enhances soil fertility Forest Rehabilitation & & nutrient uptake Strategies and Way Forward Regeneration The application of Green Technology to produce value and material from sewerage waste by products the potential value for reuse is summarized will have the following benefits:Potential New Business in in Figure 2. Treated effluent can be reusedSewage via Resource Recovery & for landscaping and industrial applications. • Minimize discharge of treated effluent intoGreen Technology Application Local research had identified this potential water courses and reduce potable water and shown that with additional downstream stress.There are three (3) waste byproducts, treated filtration units that can range from • Environmental friendly outlet for Biosolidseffluent, biosolids and biogas that can be converted media based, to membrane and or RO types can whereby disposal to landfill is avoided.for beneficial reuse is as shown in Figure 1 whilst produce bioeffluent for industrial uptake. An
August 2011 industry insights • Biogas as Cheaper source of electricity is Figure 5 Biogas Reuse as Renewable Energy found. • Green house gas emissions is minimized. Typical Biogas Characteristics Towards Green Technology Biogas to • Public satisfaction is eventually achieved Renewable Energy Parameters Units Value when the highest level environmental quality Carbon Dioxide (CO2) % v/v 28 is maintained. • BIOGAS - Valuable source of untapped • Sustainable sewerage development could be energy potential. Oxygen (O2) % v/v <1 achieved. Methane (CH4) % v/v 65 • Sustainable option to reduce Moisture Content % v/v 4 However, there are barriers and challenges to consumption of fossil based electricity; Nitrogen (N2) % v/v 3 successful implementation of Green Technology for resource recovery in the sewerage sector. The • Supports the Government’s target primary barriers and challenges include the lack towards increasing the use of renewable of funding; lack of incentive schemes; lack of energy. economic of scale for immediate implementation of the initiatives, lack of locally acclimatized affordable technology, poor public acceptance of the recycled products. As such, to overcome this, the following strategy and action plans need to be agreed and developed: • Government to provide grant or funds to Biogas Generation Units Power Generation Unit encourage 3R – for new waste minimization and recycling projects. • Implement Pilot Projects to demonstrate Figure 6 Illustration of Green Technology Applications for The Sewerage Sector the use of Green Technology for successful GHG (CO2)12 utilization of sewerage waste products to be implemented. GHG (CO2 and N2O) (Flared) GHG (CO2, N20, CH4) • Allocate Research & Development funds Energy (Electricity) dedicated to encourage innovation in cheaper GHGs (CO2) GHG (Biogas) cleaner production of treated Bioeffluent, fertilizer and renewable energy such as from Biosolids and Biogas. • Intensive and creative public awareness Sewage Sludge Dewatered program to educate the public on recycling WASTEWATER TREATMENT ANAEROBIC METHANE Biosolids SEWAGE SLUDGE of sewerage by-products. Vs Vs Vs • Provide Policy & Guidelines for utilization of WATER RECLAIMATION BIOGAS BIOSOLIDS sewerage beneficial products such as treated Bioeffluent, fertilizer and energy source. • Community engagement to be encouraged Renewable Energy Fuel for via small medium industry entrepreneurship Recycled Bio-Effluent for Power/Electricity Fertilizer; Soil Conditioner; & program and good incentives for Green Landscape & Industry Use Renewable Energy Fuel Technology projects. • More regional plants to be established to provide the economics of scale to generate IWK as the national sewerage services provider Plausible scenarios were • Biosolids and Biogas of critical mass. All regional plants shall be provided with is well positioned to realize such new business then created to enable opportunities for Malaysia. It is envisaged Malaysia anaerobic digestion for sludge treatment. can lead other emerging nations to transform the identification of • Developer shall be encouraged with sewerage services into sustainable model. For a start technology priorities that incentives to build Zero Waste plants. IWK has taken initiative to establish demonstration • Integrated resource management to be projects on bioeffluent reuse with government’s is required to support the advocated, planned and developed for support and is looking into biogas demonstration nation’s vision 2020. implementation. projects at IWK’s regional plants. With further government support the vision of Malaysia as leader in sewerage transformation (Figure 7) for Asia can be realized.
August 2011 industry insights Table 1 Green Technology Methods for Resource Recovery Sewerage Green Technology Valued Added Inherent Values Intervention Required By-Products Applications Products/Applications Water source Purification and Disinfection Membrane filtration, Recycled water for Ultrafiltration Reverse Industries/Landscape Use. Osmosis Treated Effluent Nutrient Source – e.g. Nitrogen Source separation & nutrient Biotransformation and Recycled Nutrient capsules, & Phosphorus; Excess Residual recovery Bioaccumulation using Nutrient Feed Meal for Pharmaceuticals microbes, algae and/or Livestock; Recovered duckweeds pharmaceuticals. Fluidized Bed Reactors Organic Matter ;Macro & Micro Bioconversion Process Composting & Bulk Organic Media Fertilizer Nutrients (i.e. N:P:K, Mg, Ca, Zn, Vermicomposting Fe, Mn);. Fortification and nutrient Mixing and packaging Soil Conditioner Pellets/ supplementation Briquettes; Retail Fertilizer Pellets Energy/Heating Value Conversion to fuel pellets Thermal drying Co-firing fuel for Energy Biosolids Intensive Industry Conversion to Hydrogen gas Gasification Renewable Energy for and eventually to electricity Fuel Cell Technology Power Supply Conversion to Biogas Anaerobic Digestion Renewable Energy for Power Supply 13 Energy/Heating Value Conversion to electricity Biogas Engine & Renewable Energy for Biogas Fuel Cell Technology Power Supply Figure 7 Transformation From a Utility (Brown) Model to a Resource Recovery (Green) ModelSummary and Conclusion Source separationThere is enormous benefit to be gained from Wastewater generationthe application of Green Technology to harvestthe much untapped resources in the seweragesector. For this, we need to transform the mannersewage treatment is being planned and developed Energy Wastewaterin this country. Malaysia needs to leap frog our collection &sewerage services into a zero waste, and product conveyance system Nutrient Waterharvesting based on the waste to wealth model Wastewaterthat is both environmentally and economically conveyance system Wastewatersustainable. With the higher vision of sewage Treated treatment systemas a resource instead of waste, the drive is to Biosolids Disposalestablish green technologies to produce feedstockand by-products that could be used to catalyze Treated Wastewater Biogasdownstream processing to produce value added Disposal Flarematerials which have economic benefits (waste towealth concept). In the future, it is inevitable thatsewage treatment could be a lucrative businesswhen all the stakeholders could appreciate the Energyinherent potential in this industry. Malaysia canestablish a Green Technology Hub and be a leader BROWN ENVIRONMENT GREEN ENVIRONMENTin this waste to wealth concept and strategize itssustainability through zero waste management.
August 2011 BookClub LeARnIng fRoM THe fUTURe: coMPeTITIve foReSIgHT ScenARIoS Liam Fahey/ Robert Randall. Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc Published 1997/11 SUSTAInABLe exceLLence: THe fUTURe of BUSIneSS In A fAST-cHAngIng woRLD Aron Cramer/ Zachary Karabell YoUng PeoPLe, eDUcATIon, AnD SUSTAInABLe DeveLoPMenT: exPLoRIng PRIncIPLeS, PeRSPecTIveS, AnD PRAxIS Peter Blaze Corcoran (Editor), Philip Molo Osano (Editor) • ISBN-10: 9780471303527 • ISBN-13: 978-0471303527 How important is nit to know and learn from the future? Today’s business landscape is changing: Natural14 resources are growing ever more scarce and In recent decades, the world has often been caught expensive. Technology and changing consumer unaware by momentous events–oil shortages expectations are making transparency a fact of life. and gluts, the collapse of the Soviet empire, and The rise of emerging economies creates vast market technology that quickly transformed whole opportunities for companies—and better living industries. The question is, how do we learn to standards for hundreds of millions. anticipate and find opportunities in such sudden • ISBN-10: 9086860931 ISBN-10: 9086860931 crises? In Sustainable Excellence, Aron Cramer and Zachary • ISBN-13: 978-9086860937 Karabell tell the stories of the companies who are The future will always be unpredictable, but with the transforming themselves by responding to these Young people, education and sustainable right techniques, it can be anticipated and managed. paradigm shifts and in the process shaping the future. developement is a collection of 38 essays co- From their work with several international companies, authored by 68 contributors from 25 nations, Learning from the Future reveals how these Cramer and Karabell know firsthand how business representing a diversity of geography, gender, and innovative organizations harness imagination and can successfully grapple with big-picture issues like generation. strategic management techniques to create scenarios resource scarcity, supply chain complexities, and that simulate future opportunities and threats. This the diverse expectations of government and the Young people have an enormous stake in the book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a public. In Sustainable Excellence, they tell the stories present and future state of Earth. Almost half of the practical part of every manager’s job. It shows how of how Coca-Cola and Greenpeace collaborated human population is under the age of 25. If young scenario learning readies companies for industry on a refrigerator that fights climate change, how peoples resources of energy, time, and knowledge and market evolutions and customers′ new needs. companies like Best Buy and Nike are transforming are misdirected towards violence, terrorism, Scenario learning envisions how industry segments the very products they sell to deliver more value to socially isolating technologies, and unsustainable may gain or lose profit potential, how certain consumers with less waste, how GE and Google consumption, civilization risks destabilization. Yet, technologies could dominate a market or fail to created an innovative partnership that is developing there is a powerful opportunity for society if young be accepted, how new trends could propel mass “smart grids” that radically reduce energy use, and people can participate positively in all aspects of markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. how business leaders like Starbucks’ founder and sustainable development. In order to do so young CEO Howard Schultz put sustainable excellence at people need education, political support, resources, To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and the center of his company’s business strategy. skills, and hope. learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Through these and other fascinating stories This volume offers a global perspective on Their case studies explore rapid technology Sustainable Excellence makes the case for a different education initiatives by and for young people that innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by way of doing business – one that will define both promote a transition to sustainability. new or traditional competitors, and investment business success and economic vitality in the 21st opportunities. century.
August 2011 industry insightsGrowing Together –Future Forum 2020A Foresight Project for Natural Fiber BY Dilip Tambyrajah Secretary, The International Natural Fiber Organization Zoetermeer, The Netherlands Dilip.Tambyrajah@wxs.nl 15
August 2011 industry insights Figure 1 Need to Balance Contents, Processes and Tools & Methods Events Patterns Content Structure Granularity In-Sight etc. Group Dynamics Culture Many tools are Politics used in Futures Phasing of Activities Studies etc Process Tool & Methods16 “The key reasons for the producers. The fiber producers are mainly decline of these fibers The International Natural rural famers and with low income levels, Fiber Organization mostly in emerging economies and could be attributed to developing countries lack of proactiveness and Growing Together – Future Forum 2020 is a (2) Contribute towards Sustainable Societies neglect of innovation. The Foresight project of the International Natural Fiber organization (INFO). by encouraging the use of natural fibers on route to Bio Based Economies, this taking producing countries often into account the concept of Planet, People considered each other INFO is a Public-Private-Partnership of and Profits. fiber producers from emerging economies (3) Contribute towards Biodiversity. as competitors and were and developing countries such as Brazil, not able to find areas Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and INFO works closely with the FAO Inter- where consensus could be Tanzania. INFO was officially incorporated as an international association in the latter part Governmental Groups on Hard Fibers, Jute Kenaf and Allied Fibers. At present the focus is on developed and collective of 2009. Recently the Malaysian Kenaf sector natural fibers Abaca, Coir, Jute, Kenaf and Sisal. action made possible.” showed keen interest to support INFO activities and generously hosted the 2nd workshop of this 12 month Foresight project, which was held from 16 to 18 March in Putrajaya. The 1st Cooperating to Compete international workshop was held in Leiden, The Netherlands. The Foresight project is facilitated Millions of people and thousands of households by Prof. Ian Miles and Dr. Ozcan Saritas of and farmers are dependent on the production of Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Abaca, Coir, Jute, Kenaf and Sisal fiber, often under Manchester Business School, U.K. conditions of poverty and living in rural areas. In a period where sustainable development is a key The objectives of INFO are: issue, renewable materials such as these natural fibers lost market share. Looking backwards the (1) Contribute towards income improvement explanations for this state of business can be and market position of natural fiber given but what about the future? How will the
August 2011 industry insights Figure 2 Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) and its mental acts (phases) Understanding Systemic understanding 1 SFM as a Conceptual base for the design, organisation Creates shared understanding and mutual and deployment of Foresight appreciation of issues at hand exercises. 2 Systems synthesis and modelling Action The input from scanning is synthesised into Synthesis & Modelling conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world Systemic analysis and Selection 3 Analyses the alternative models of the future systemic foresight and prioritises them, through intensive methodology negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future 4 System transformation Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a change programme 5 Systemic actionTransformation Analysis & Selection Create plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and 17 Source: Saritas (2006) behavioural transforrmations cultivation and production of these fibers look in The challenge in this project is to keep all three the year 2020? The Foresight Project: components in balance to ensure success of The complexities faced due the project. The time factor of the project of 12 The key reasons for the decline of these fibers to groups diversity months, geographical dispersion, limited funds could be attributed to lack of proactiveness and and resources can add to the challenges of this neglect of innovation. The producing countries Generally the minimum time horizon of Foresight project. often considered each other as competitors and is considered to be 10 years or more and this can were not able to find areas where consensus could cause methodological and also process challenges. This makes Growing Together – Future Forum be developed and collective action made possible. This is even more true to INFO which is an 2020 a special foresight project. In a classical behaviour, the “outside world” was international group of senior lev el policy makers blamed for the state of affairs. Particularly the and business managers representing a wide range “Synthetics” were seen as the main culprit. of fibers. Most are used to day to day management practice of “Fire Fighting” and less busy with Methodological Challenges Around 2007 it became apparent to a group of thinking 20 or 30 year ahead. So change in mind producers that there was much to be gained by set becomes essential for this Foresight activity. In Growing Together – Future Forum 2020, Prof. cooperating than destruction competition. For In addition, not many in the INFO group are Ian Miles and Dr. Ozcan Saritas of Manchester instance cooperation meant limited resources familiar with the concepts and tools of Foresight. Business School are following the systemic could be shared, learning from each other Similarity of vocabulary of Foresight and Strategy foresight methodology as shown in figure 2. encouraged, collective R&D activities undertaken Management could be misleading as well. This to accelerate the development of the sectors and is especially true for INFO members who may In each of these components a mix of methods energies focused to making a start in recovering undertake Strategy Management in Small and could be used for analytical purposes. As the the lost market share. But in order to be effective Medium Sized Enterprises. project progresses it is becoming apparent that the group considered a collective long term there are no prescriptions for finding the right vision is considered vital. Therefore instead of So Growing Together – Future Forum 2020 is mix of tools to be used in each component. This developing a plan based on the traditional Strategy not only intended to produce a Foresight report obviously is a trade-off between costs and time, Management approach, a Foresight approach was (contents) but the process is an equally important meaning if there are sufficient funds and time data chosen. component. In the project the 3 aspects of can be generated to enable analysis. Contents, Processes and Tools & Methods of Foresight need equal attention. See figure 1.
August 2011 industry insights According to Saritas (in Concept report of Figure 3 Classification of Foresight methods and Illustration of Multi-Method Approach Growing Together- Future Forum 2020, 2011) a typical Multi-Method approach is illustrated in figure 3. Understanding Synthesis & Models However, due to the complexity of the project, how the methods per step can be mixed seems to be more intuitive than systematic. In the coming months this aspect will be explored further. Gaming Scanning Growing Together – Future Forum 2020: The benefits so far Bibliometrics According to the planning the 1st phase of / Data Mining this Foresight project will conclude in the 4th Scenario quarter of 2011. It is the intention of INFO to Planning institutionalize and embed Foresight thinking within the INFO member countries. This network should enable to increase the efficiency of applying Foresight activities in future. Information / Intelligence / Imagination This foresight project has already achieved Literature its objective of bringing a diverse group of Review Wild Card international policy makers and business managers Weak Signals together and focus their thinking on the more18 longer term issues but still respecting the diversity of view points. The value of Foresight approach in creating a common long term vision for the natural fibers of concern to INFO is becoming apparent as the project progresses. Network Interviews Analysis The key objective of the foresight is to understand the long term futures that could unfold upon the different fibers and collective action planned and implemented by INFO for the common themes that will emerge. It is also envisaged that the outcome this project and the experienced gained will encourage the different INFO participants Agent Based to use foresight for individual countries policy Modelling Trends & making. Drivers of Change “The key objective of the foresight is to understand the long term futures that could unfold upon Systems Modelling / Simulation the different fibers and Analysis collective action planned and implemented by INFO for the common themes that will emerge.” Interaction Panel Panel Conferences Conferences
August 2011 industry insights The Challenges of Research in Malaysia: Prioritisation of Research and Bringing Research to the Market BY K. Thambiratnam firstname.lastname@example.org M.S. Shahir email@example.com R esearch and Development (R&D)20 has long been a key activity in any developing or developed nation. R&D activities are not only generators of new knowledge; they are also an essential factor in the growth in the economy. The government of Malaysia has long recognised this fact, and has worked had to foster Domestic Product (GDP). Should of GDP as of 2006. The debate and nurture collaborations between researchers the GINI ranking, a measurement of to increase, decrease or leave and the members of the industry, thereby allowing wealth distribution should be uneven then alone this percentage again falls on the individuals to come together in new or larger prioritization could be or rather should be for prioritization of the nation, where subsidization research groups as well as to initiate and practice towards state funded social programs, with less or expenditure for the research and development interdisciplinary research, as well as to work focus on funding for research activities. Or if the should be balanced with subsidization or together with the members of the industry to GDP is well below critical mass, focus might be expenditure for the public. In simple terms the promote research that addresses specific market applied to low value chain activities to drive the challenge is: to increase research output (inclusive needs. economy. However, based on the dependency innovation and products) without skewing wealth of export (an indication of how insulated the distribution. In a developing country such as Malaysia, there economy is), more resources could be allocated are many challenges when it comes to conducting towards research and development. Suppose say Another key challenge in research in Malaysia is research. One of the main challenges being faced we are a small community living on Mars, the in bringing it into the market. For the foresight is the needs of the public. To illustrate this point, pressure towards improving our comparative and future of any nation, the ability of research let us first take for granted that the entire nation’s advantage or to add to our capabilities could be outputs to penetrate the market is a key factor R&D is relevant to the needs of the industry; less, thus allowing us to focus on different paths. that spells the success and stability of a nation, thus the question will be of prioritization of the Based on our current standing in the World or its slow decline. The main reason for this is efforts in research. This prioritization could differ Economic Forum competitive ranking (we rank that system integrators and product developers depending on situation(s) surrounding a particular 26th), we can see that we are still efficiency driven are most of the time reluctant to introduce new state, sector or community; in some cases the economy and not yet innovation driven. This locally developed technologies into their wares. research would be on the betterment of the social infers that the goals and the priorities of the nation This is justifiable, as these entities must ensure the situation, whilst in other cases the research can should and are still focused on the development of performance of their products and the satisfaction be used to boost the economy. It is not easy to many aspects of the nation, not including research of their customers, but it is also a bane to the accurately determine which role would best suit and development. Furthermore, Malaysia’s patent research output, as it will never be able to see real- the research, but an inference of where to place performance is at 5.7 utility innovations per world applications. The government has taken the prioritization for R&D can be based on a few million (population) (2009), not surprising since efforts to overcome this problem by preparing indicators such as the GINI Ranking and the Gross the percentage of GDP for R&D stood at 0.64% various funds such as technology grants (MGS,
August 2011 industry insightsTechnofund,) matchmaking grants (IP Connect the researcher and the industry member must the market, they do represent the largest ones andMDeC – where patents holders meet the industry, be competent to improve communications must be resolved before any significant results canAgensi Inovasi Malaysia Commercialisation Lab – and to smoothen the transfer of knowledge. be seen from the movement of research to thewhere patent holders present their innovation to market.industry for further development and Universities 3) Areas of ContentionCommercializing Arm – where universities try Once there is a perceived profit to be made In solving these issues, policies, regulations andto find an industrial match for a particular core from a collaborative effort, then there will be legalities as well as basic human empathy go atechnology) and have produced some results, two areas contention of conflict between RI’s/ long way. It is not difficult to conduct researchbut sadly the response is rather lethargic. The University and Industry, namely IP (Patent) in a country while at the same time ensuring thereasons for this ranges from low short term and Profit Sharing; especially ones that are growth and prosperity of the people; all it takes isreturns to perceived risks involved. Overcoming derived by the new contented IP (Patent). a concentrated effort by all parties, the industrythis challenge will require the most effort, which the government and the researcher, and in doingis a change of mindset. Because this can be almost Although these factors do not constitute the only so, would be able to see Malaysia in becoming aimpossible to achieve, an alternative route must stumbling blocks in bringing research outputs to developed nation in the near future.be found; in this case, a collaborative synergy canbe achieved by having a collaboration betweenthe researcher and the industrial entity, such thatthe research is focused to solve a specific industry Energy-Outlook Energy-Outlook Costs of generation Costs of generationproblem which can then be taken up by the (€/MWh) (€/MWh)industry entity. This is not only important but in 8 18.6 Emission tradeactual fact crucial when we compare ourselves to 8 18.6 Emission trade 23€/t CO2giant global entities such as HUAWEI and ZTE 23€/t CO2 11.0who have very strong research groups. Additional 11.0 Fuel costsfactors that inhibit the movement of research Fuel costsoutputs to the market are: 5 26.2 O&M costs 5 40 26.2 O&M costs1) Mismatch of Expectations 40 Researchers from RI’s or University have 10 21 10 an expectation that the method used must Capital costs 41.9 Capital costs be highly efficient (depending though on 41.9 8.0 how efficiency is defined) and novel, but not 8.0 necessarily to improve the bottom-line of 20 5 Source: 20 5 Source: user-experience. This contradicts with the 11.5 11.5 Lappeenranta University of Technology 6.2 Lappeenranta University of Technology needs of the industry, who want a simple 6.2 (Finland) 2008. (Finland) 2008. solution that is user friendly. Nuclear Natural Coal Wind Nuclear Natural Coal Wind Power Gas Power Gas2) Breakdown in Communication There must be an understanding of how to measure performance, and for motivational purposes the pros and cons of one method of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions measurement over another must be clear. Both Electricity generation Electricity generation CO2 Emissions* CO Emissions* per2fuel per fuel This is justifiable, as (t CO2/GWh) (t CO2/GWh) these entities must ensure the performance * Emissions from fuel * Emissions from fuel extraction, construction of of their products and 964 964 extraction, construction of plants and operation of plants and operation of the satisfaction of their equipment. equipment. 726 customers, but it is also 726 484 a bane to the research 484 output, as it will never Source: Source: IEA be able to see real- IEA (International Energy Agency) (International Energy Agency) world applications. Coal Coal Oil Oil Natural Nuclear Power Natural Nuclear Power Gas and Renewable Gas and Renewable
August 2011 cover story22
cover story August 2011 Greening The Future Through 23 Malaysian Biomass Initiatives (MBI) BY Nik Ahmad Faizul Abdul Mallek Puvaneswary Ramasamy
August 2011 cover story Palm oil has contributed to the world oils and fats supply and demand equation mainly due to its techno-economic advantages and versatility as well as some of the developments in the world in relation to security and supply, health, and environment. It is expected that the world palm oil consumption will increase from the current 38 million tonnes to 63 million tonnes in 2015 and further increase to 77 million tonnes in 2020 (Mielke, 2011). Malaysia is the 2nd largest Crude Palm Oil (CPO) shown to have extensive health benefits such era of Green Economy, hence towards a greener producer with 17.5 million tonnes of CPO in 2010 cardiovascular benefits (Strandberg et al., 1989) future. and it is expected to achieve 21.5 million tonnes. and even anti-cancer properties. Biochemicals As of 2009, Malaysia has 4.7 million hectares of include sugar derivatives such as succinic acid oil palm plantations, 416 mills, 43 crushers, 51 which is now used within the food and beverage refineries, 18 oleochemical plants and 25 biodiesel industry, primarily as a sweetener. Other high Enabling platform plants. The industry is dominated by large value fine chemicals include plasticizers such as plantation companies (Private- and Government- levulinic acid, bio-isobutanol, and bio-n-butanol The recently established Global Science and linked companies) which hold 60% total plantation which can also be involved in the solvents, foam, Innovation Advisory Council (GSIAC) by land, with growing level of integration along the coatings, and jet-fuel industries (Table 4). Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib value chain (Table 1). Tun Razak in New York has Malaysian Biomass In-light of this issue, biomass utilization is gaining Initiatives as one of the 3 quick-win projects. popularity due to its considerable potential. It is Through the leading efforts of MIGHT as the renewable, and is already the fourth largest global Secretariat, various national parties1 were Contemporary biomass utilization energy resource after coal, oil, and natural gas. It consolidated such as MOSTI, EPU, KeTTHA, has the capacity to penetrate all energy sectorial NRE, UNIK, PEMANDU, Biotech Corp, MLSCF, As a result of this, the residue/waste from palm markets, although economic constraints still limit bioMass.sp, MPOB, MDEC, MITI, MIDA, Green24 oil plantation is known to a major contributor to its general deployment. (bioMass.sp Newsletter Tech Corp, ASM, Ensearch, WWF, and many biomass in the country. It is estimated to be more Issue 1). In addition to this by enhancing and others to formulate a plan for green futures for that 90 million tonnes per year largely derived optimising the current usage of biomss to produce Malaysia. Through the GSIAC, the concerted from empty fruit bunches (EFBs), trunks, fronds, fine chemicals, biochemical, and biofuels, it can tap efforts of MIGHT, and consolidation from shell, and palm kernel cake (Table 2). Currently into a much more lucrative market and contribute other national parties in the spirit of 1Malaysia, the dry biomass is being converted to low-value significantly to Malaysia’s GDP while addressing the best framework to ensure the success of the wood products, fertilizers, aggregates, and fuel environmental issues at the same time (Table 5). Malaysian Biomass Initiatives (MBI) was created pellets/briquettes. Some are burned at the mills Thus it seems that Malaysia’s oil-palm biomass is (Figure 4). to produce in-house energy supply (Figure 1). A the right champion to jump-start Malaysia into an considerable amount of our empty fruit bunches are also being exported out to other countries (such as Japan & EU) (Table 3) where value is Table 1 Plantation areas in Malaysia (by category) created overseas. In addition to this palm-oil mill effluents (POME) are utilised to produce biogas Categories Areas (Hectares) % which is then used to generate electricity. With Private Estates 2,934,519 60.5 the introduction of the feed-in-tariff mechanism, - Sime Darby1 639,000 the effort to generate electricity from biomass is - IOI2 154,709 expected to gain momentum. - KLK 178,939 - Boulstead 74,354 - Others 1,887,517 Future shift Felda 705,574 14.5 Recent findings have highlighted that palm-based Smallholders 651,385 13.4 biomass can be utilised for more valuable resources, such as the production of biofuels, biochemicals, State Agency 320,940 6.7 phytonutrients and other high-value fine Felcra 162,556 3.3 chemicals (Figure 2 & 3). These phytonutrients include Carotenes, Vitamin E, Sterols, Squalene, Risda 78,791 1.6 Co‐enzyme Q and Phospholipids. These phytonutrients are powerful antioxidants, but Total 4,853,766 100 their value extends beyond antioxidant activity Source: 1 MPOB 2011; 2 IOI Corp. Bhd. Annual Report 2010 and free radical protection. They have also been
cover story August 2011 Figure 1 Current utilization of Malaysia’s oil-palm biomass Source: MIGHT, 2011 Oil Palm Mill Plantation Oil Palm Oil Palm Palm Empty Oil Mill Fruit Shell Trunk Frond Effluent Bunch (OPT) (OPF) (POME) (EFB) Treat & Import/ Road Energy Fertilizer Furniture Fertilizer Discharge Export aggregate Table 2 Biomass output capacity of Malaysian oil-palm industryNote: Item 3-7 are dry biomass. ‘Others’ refer to oil palm plantation outside the ECER region. ECER + others represent national plantation. 2008 (ECER) 2010 (Others) Total Dry Biomass (TONNES) (TONNES) (ECER + Others) 25 1. Empty Fruit Bunches 2,379,811 11,849,002 2. Shell 855,817 42,610,835 3. Palm Kernel Cake 541,740 2,697,307 4. Oil Palm Trunk 5,100,000 5,100,000 5. Oil Palm Fronds 4,748,700 23,643,546 6. Total Dry Biomass 13,626,068 85,900,690 99,526,758 TONNES/YEAR 7. Palm Oil Mill effluent 9,081,889 45,218,280 Source: MIGHT, 2011 Table 3 Example companies in Japan importing EFBs from Malaysia. Trader and/or User Scope and Purpose of EFB Business Began to use EFB as fuel for the boiler of the factory’s power generation plant, burning EFB with coal at a proportion of 10 Tokuyama Co. (User) %, since October 2009 at Tokuyama Factory. Plans to consume 30,000 ~ 40,000 ton of EFB annually, expecting to reduce CO2 emission by 70,000 ton annually Secured an import allotment of 500,000 ton/year of EFB from Malaysian and Indonesian firms. Intends to supply 100,000 ORIX Co. (Trader) ~ 200, 000 ton/year of EFB to Japanese electric power companies and paper-manufacturing companies, expecting sales amount of 1 ~ 2 billion yen/year. Further, increase import up to 1 million ton/year in the future Established in November 2009, a joint venture company that would produce solid type fuel from EFB, jointly with Felda Palm Industries Sdn Bhd (FPISB) that is the biggest palm oil maker in the world. Annual production of the solid fuel would be Itochu Co. (Trader) 24,000 ton, which would be exported to Japan and consumed by Tokyo Electric Power Company from 2012. Plans to raise the annual production of the solid fuel up to 120,000 ton/year Source: Asia Biomass Office; retrieved from the World Wide Web, 2011
August 2011 cover story Figure 2 High-value conversion Source: 2011 Oil Palm Note: Green circles highlights high-value conversion of palm-based biomass resources. Mill Plantation Oil Palm Oil Palm Palm Empty Oil Mill Fruit Shell Trunk Frond Effluent Bunch (OPT) (OPF) (POME) (EFB) Treat & Import/ Road Energy Fertilizer Furniture Fertilizer Discharge Export aggregate Phytonutrient/ Biocompost/ Fine Chemicals Biocompost/ Polyphenols/ (Sugar Derivatives) Biocompund Biochemical Vitamin A/ cmpd. Vitamin E26 Future High values uses Current uses Processing Waste Energy Generation Figure 3 Value Generated per Dry Tonne Biomass Value Generated per Dry Tonne Biomass (RM) Lactic Acid Levulinic Acid Propanediol Ethanol Sugars Electricity Fertilizer 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
cover story August 2011 government intervention may accelerate the Sciences President’s Council Members (TableMalaysian Biomass Initiatives nation into greener economies by facilitating a 6). vibrant and conducive environment. The objectives of the council include providingThe MBI is based on public-private partnership advice on Malaysia’s aspirations of being a high(PPP) model and operated by an entity where income country through wealth creation andsub-entities of the MBI (such as a Special Purpose societal well-being, benchmarking Malaysia’sVehicle for Aggregation, Consortia etc.) will GSIAC ranking and competitiveness in Science andplay the crucial role of long-term sole purchaser Innovation against technologically advancedand supplier of palm waste biomass. Other A Malaysian delegation visit to US was headed countries and improving Malaysia’s capabilitiesresponsibilities of the MBI and its sub-entities by YAB Prime Minister from 25 to 30 September in Science and Innovation. Last, and not least,include ensuring the reliable and sustainable 2010 and one of the announcements made during the GSIAC (and its associated projects) alsosupply of biomass (from feedstock to off-takers), the visit was the setting up of the Global Science aim to generate and increase bilateral trade andcoordinating the optimization for quality and and Innovation Advisory Council (GSIAC) for investment value for short, medium, and long-cost efficient processes, and integrating global Malaysia in New York. term timeline.technologies to provide fractionated biomasscomponents. In addition to that, the MBI also GSIAC is structurally chaired by the Prime Since the successful GSIAC inaugural meeting inhas capacity-building elements whereby the Minister, with Dato’ Dr. Zakri Abdul Hamid New York on the 17th of May 2011, the GSIACGSIAC platform may serve to provide input to (Science Advisor to the Prime Minister) and Ellis and its associated three endorsed projects (namelythe related Centres of Excellence (COEs) in Rubinstein (President and CEO of the New York MBI, Smart-City Smart Village, and CapacityMalaysia especially where relevant technologies Academy of Sciences) being the Joint-Secretaries, Building) have gained much publicity fromin the MBI are concerned. Thus, the MBI aims while Mohd Yusoff Sulaiman (President and local and international media and the interestto be a clear, concerted and well-structured CEO of MIGHT) and Dr Karin Pavese (Vice- momentum is expected to rise throughout theintervention solution for a sustainable and President, Innovation & Sustainability, NYAS) project timeline.manageable initiative in catalysing and optimizing takes the role of the Joint-Secretariat HeadsMalaysia’s ready supply of biomass towards (Figure 5). GSIAC members also consist of The Council is deemed a crucial added value torealizing downstream economic opportunities highly-selected ministers, corporate leaders and the efforts of the Malaysian Government to makein the oil-palm industry. The MBI, along with academics – Malaysia & New York Academy of a quantum jump from middle-income country to a high-income economy by the year 2020. 27 Table 4 Example of high-value chemicals that can be produced from oil-palm biomass Product Application Value-add/ tonne product Way forward Proprietary platform Malaysia’s oil-palm biomass is truly an untapped High-value specialty chemicals & materials chemical, L-ketals reservoir. Utilization of biomass can be both green and wealth-creating. Capitalizing on our High-value specialty chemicals, plastics, Bio-isobutanol USD500-3,000 abundant renewable resource and driven by the materials & ‘drop-in’ fuels need to grow sustainably, The MBI is projected to High-value specialty chemicals e.g. generate an additional income of RM 100 billion Bio-n-butanol solvents, acrylics; jet fuel or more to the Malaysian economy with the addition of creating highly skilled and semi-skilled Source: MLSCF, 2011 jobs. The Malaysian Biomass Initiative, along with other projects such as the Smart City-Smart Conversion of palm-based resources to Bioelectricity, Biofuels, and Biochemicals and Village project is set to jump-start a vibrant green Table 5 projected GDP contribution technology in Malaysia, and drive Malaysia into a new era of Green Economy, ultimately propelling Estimated Revenue Projected GDP - Contribution the nation into a Green Future. Per MT Billion RM (%GDP) 1. Bioelectricity RM 231 0.8 (0.1%) 2. Biofuels* RM 453 3 (0.5%) 3. Biochemicals** RM 2500 26 (4.2%) 1 MOSTI, Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation; EPU, Economic Source: UNK, 2010 Planning Unit; KeTTHA, Kementerian Tenaga Teknologi Hijau dan Air; MNRE, Ministry of Natural Resource & Environment; UNIK, Unit InnovasiNotes: Khas; PEMANDU; Biotech Corp; MLSCF, Malaysian Life-Science Capital Fund; bioMass.sp; MPOB,Malaysian Palm Oil Board; MDEC, MalaysiaBased on 70 million tons of palm lignocellulosic residue Development Corporation; MITI, Ministry of International Trade andMargin: 5% (electric), 10% (fuels), 15% (chems) Industry; MIDA, Malaysian Industrial Development Authority; Green*ethanol, **lactic acid for plastic Tech Corp; ASM, Akademi Sains Malaysia; Ensearch; WWF, World Wide Life Foundation.MY GDP = 195 billion USD
August 2011 cover story Figure 4 MBI Implementation Model Malaysian academia gsiac Enablers & research off-taker institutions offset Funding centres of gsiac platform Excellence (coEs) policies investor pool ** consortium regulation, academia incentives & pool ** infrastructure * technology centralised pool ** technology Feedstock Biomass hub * human technology sustainable28 capital provider Feedstock supply pool ** ** areas for international support ** Malaysian govt. New Enambling initiative source: Might, 2011 Figure 5 Structure of the GSIAC JoiNt sEcrEtariEs JoiNt sEcrEtariEs Mr. ELLis ruBiNstEiN proF. EMEritus President and Chief Executive Officer, dato dr ZaKri aBduL haMid The New York Academy of Sciences Science Advisor to Prime Minister of Malaysia chairMaN yaB dato sri Mohd NaJiB tuN aBduL raZaK Prime Minister of Malaysia JoiNt sEcrEtariat JoiNt sEcrEtariat dr. KariN pavEsE Mr. Mohd yusoFF suLaiMaN Vice President, Innovation & Sustainability, President & Chief Executive Officer, The New York Academy of Sciences MIGHT
cover story August 2011 Table 6 GSIAC Members GSIAC MEMBERS INTERNATIONAL MEMBERS • Dr. Rita Colwell, US Special Science Envoy to South Asia and Southeast Asia • Mr. Ron Cohen, President & Chief Executive Office , Accorda Therapeutics • Dr. A. A. (Aalt) Dijkhuizen, Chairman, Executive Board, Wageningen University and Research Centre • Dr. Michael Crow, President, Arizona State University • Dr. Mikael Dolsten, President, Worldwide Research and Development and Senior Vice President, Pfizer Inc • Dr. Paul Horn, Senior Vice Provost for Research, New York University, former Senior Vice President & Executive Director of Research, IBM • Hon. Jerry MacArthur Hultin, President, Polytechnic Institute of New York University • Mr. Jiang Mian Heng, Vice President, Chinese Academy of Sciences; President, Shanghai Branch of CAS • Dr. Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, former Science Advisor to the Prime Minister of Japan • Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Director General, The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi, Chair International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Hon. Ilya Ponomarev, Member, DUMA of Russia, Chair, DUMA High Technology Committee • Dr. Richard Roberts, Nobel Laureate, Chief Scientific Officer, New England Biolabs • Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, Special Advisor to the Secretary General of the United Nations • Dr. Annalee Saxenian, Dean and Professor, School of Information, University of California, Berkeley 29 • Dr. Franklin Schuling, Vice President Philips Research and Head of Philips Research North America • Dr. Anthony J. Sinskey, Prof. of Biology & Health Sciences & Technology, M.I.T. • Dr. Vivek Wadhwa, Senior Research Associate, Labor and Worklife Program at Harvard Law School, Executive In Residence/Adjunct Professor, Pratt School of Engineering at Duke University, and Visiting Scholar, School of Information, University of California, Berkeley • Dr. Torsten Wiesel, Nobel Laureate, President Emeritus, Rockefeller University, Chairman Emeritus, The New York Academy of Sciences • Dr. Roger Wyse, Managing Director, Burrill & Co. • Dr. Nancy Zimpher, Chancellor, The State University of New York • Sir Peter Williams, Vice President, Royal Society, United Kingdom • Dr. June Seung Lee, President, Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) • Professor William F. Miller, Herbert Hoover Professor of Public & Private, Emeritus Professor of Computer Science Stanford University, former President & CEO of SRI International • Mr. Brian Mefford, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Connected Nation, Inc • Mr. Steve Forbes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Forbes Media.
August 2011 cover story Table 6 GSIAC Members (cont) LOCAL MEMBERS • YB. Dato’ Sri Peter Chin Fah Kui, Minister of Energy, Green Technology & Water • YB. Datuk Seri Dr. Maximus Johnity Ongkili, Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation • YB. Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin, Minister of Higher Education • YB. Dato’ Sri Anifah Hj Aman, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia • H.E. Dato’ Sri Jamaludin Jarjis, Ambassador of Malaysia to the United States • YBhg. Tan Sri Dr. Ahmad Tajuddin Ali, President, Academy of Sciences of Malaysia • YBhg. Tan Sri Dato’ Azman Hj. Mokhtar, Managing Director, Khazanah Nasional • YBhg. Dato’ Shamsul Azhar Abbas, President and Chief Executive Officer, Petronas • YBhg. Dato’ Mohd Bakke Salleh, President and Group Chief Executive, Sime Darby • YBhg. Dato’ Sabri Ahmad, Group Managing Director, Felda Holdings Bhd. EX-OFFICIO MEMBERS • YBhg. Dato’ Madinah Mohamad, Secretary General, Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation • YBhg. Datuk Loo Took Gee, Secretary General, Ministry of Energy, Green Technology & Water • YBhg. Datuk Ab. Rahim Md. Noor, Secretary General, Minister of Higher Education • YBrs. Mr. Mohd Yusoff Sulaiman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT)30 • YBhg. Datuk Badlisham Ghazali, Chief Executive Officer, Multimedia Development Corporation (MDEC) • YBhg. Dato’ Iskandar Mizal Mahmood, Chief Executive Officer, Malaysian Biotechnology Corporation • YBhg. Dato’ Dr. Kamal Jit Singh, Chief Executive Officer, Malaysia Innovation Agency • YBhg. Dato’ Ir. Lee Yee Cheong, Chairman, Governing Board of the International Science, Technology and Innovation Centre (ISTIC), for South- South Cooperation under the Auspices of UNESCO.
August 2011 trends & issues Cloud Computing for SMEs in Malaysia A Public Private Partnership: Unlocking the potential of Cloud Computing for a New World of Business BY John Galligan Regional Director, Internet Policy, Microsoft Asia Pacific firstname.lastname@example.org Dr. DzAharudin Mansor Techology Officer, Microsoft Malaysia email@example.com the past, the cost of implementing and maintaining can help to ensure business continuity and prevent The Cloud and SMEs: Fuelling the the required ICT solutions to effectively support the massive data loss in the event of disasters, a lesson Engines for Sustainable Growth business needs of a progressive SME companies has we have been reminded of several times in recent been a major obstacle. Cloud computing is seen as a months. The utility-based model of cloud computing Even as uncertainty looms over the global economy, potential solution to this problem, and this turning is another boon for SMEs, not only for cost control, Asia Pacific remains poised for continued economic point in the ICT industry could not have happened but because it allows them to work with services growth. Key to this has been the performance and at a better time for Malaysia. on a smaller scale first before ramping up into full positioning of small and medium-sized enterprises deployment, significantly lowering the barrier to (SMEs) that represent over 95% of businesses in Untapped Potential entry for cloud services. most APEC economies and often generate well over half of all employment and anywhere from 30-60% However impressive the numbers, the vast majority Closing the Gap of GDP. of SMEs are undercapitalized, underdeveloped and underserved when it comes to the technology While the potential for cloud computing is evident, In Malaysia, SMEs are estimated to comprise 99% tools and human expertise needed to run their recent research commissioned by Microsoft shows of total businesses and provide 56% employment, businesses. Most technology vendors tend to forget that there is some way to go to ensure that the cloud ultimately contributing to 31% of GDP and 19% of that technology tools are just that – tools. Most is being leveraged by SMEs in the region. The exports. Interestingly, the SME segment outpaced SMEs do not have IT departments with specialists Microsoft sponsored Springboard Survey reveals that GDP from 2004 to 2009, and was relatively resilient who know how to operate these tools. And anything while larger Asian businesses are embracing cloud to economic down turns. These facts have been that takes them away from their core focus is costing services, SMEs are lagging behind their enterprise recognised in the 10th Malaysia Plan (2011-2015) them revenue. With cloud computing the game has cousins with 62% of organisations of more than where there is strong emphasis on developing the changed, offering SMEs the opportunity to leverage 500 PCs either having adopted or planning to adopt small business ecosystem. In fact SMEs are seen as enterprise-level applications and development cloud, while 68% of organisations with less than an important driver for the economy, and Malaysia platforms without the associated upfront capital 50 PCs having no plans to adopt cloud computing. targets to boost growth from an average of 6.3% expenditure or complex IT roll-out. Cloud-based While some Asian cultures including Malaysia can to about 8.0%. However, to unleash the untapped CRM, resource management and HR applications be naturally cautious, this is a missed opportunity potential of SMEs in Malaysia, there is a need to drive greater efficiency in basic company functions that could impact competitiveness for the country. transform these entities to be more competitive and at prices that are infinitely more manageable to Surprisingly though, the research also highlights the resilient to the changing business environment. SMEs with tighter finances and cash flows, can key driver of, and barrier to, cloud adoption is not often be turned on and off as they are required, and simply managing cost, with most citing the ability Information Communications Technology (ICT) is are increasingly intuitive to use and integrate into to support unpredictable workloads as the most often seen as a tool to enable such transformation. In business needs. Applications hosted in the cloud important consideration in adopting the cloud. In
August 2011 trends & issuesterms of concerns, data security and how to guard The Role for Industry collaboration with MDeC and MIMOS, weagainst unauthorised access are the biggest barriers. have also established Microsoft InnovationClearly, regardless of size and geography, the need The community should have a greater expectation Centers (MIC) with the goal of helping startto address trust and confidence is as importance as on the technology sector than simply providing up software companies to be successful. Soreliability and cost. the platform and services for the cloud; indeed, far we have had about 150 companies going the industry must take an even more enhanced through the MIC program role in providing responsible stewardship for the cloud in areas such as: 3. Helping improve the efficiency and reachA Partnership for Development of citizen services by improving learning 1. Providing a trustworthy online experience outcomes for students and teachers throughThe Role for Government that respects the privacy of users, secures technology access and training and connecting and protects information from misuse and the educational institutions through the cloud;Besides being an important user of cloud services, maintains its infrastructure and services An example of this is Microsoft’s Partnersgovernments also have a major role to play in with the highest standards of security and in Learning (PiL) program where we haveencouraging and enabling the adoption of cloud reliability; trained over 3,670,000 teachers and studentsby SMEs, including; in Malaysia on how to leverage on technology 2. Supports greater interoperability of data and for teaching since 2004.1. The provision of affordable high quality applications in the cloud, including working on broadband availability; industry standards to promote data portability 4. Providing citizens with greater access to and choice for customers; e-government services and information2. The right policy framework to promote via our connected government framework trustworthy and secure cloud services for 3. Fosters local innovation and expertise programs and helping protect and keep safe the SMEs such as updated laws and regulations through the development of new services community by supporting the effective sharing on data protection, privacy and cybercrime; and applications that leverage the scale and of information amongst law enforcement and potential of the cloud; and public safety. Microsoft works closely with3. Ensuring that new laws and regulations don’t government organizations like Cyber Security impose unintended restrictions on the flow 4. Partner with policy makers and thought leaders Malaysia and IMPACT in a number of security of information from SME customers to cloud on helping shape the legal and regulatory related programs as part of collaboration with 33 service providers; frameworks to develop good cloud governance the government. agencies; models as well as advance the development4. The promotion to adopt cloud computing agenda for national economies 5. Enabling jobs and opportunities through and broadband to increase productivity expanding the community’s access to and market reach such as the collaboration The Role for Microsoft technology and training and empowering non- between SME Corp., Suruhanjaya Syarikat government organisations (NGOs) with the Malaysia and Microsoft. Microsoft has a long heritage in Malaysia of software and computing resources they need investing in programs and projects that help to better serve their beneficiaries. Through5. Government initiatives that foster the transform the provision of public sector services our NGO partners, approximately 30,000 ecosystem for the development of cloud such as education, healthcare and public safety, people from the underserved community have applications on top of IaaS and PaaS services, fostering local innovation and software ecosystems benefitted and trained under the Unlimited which not only encourage local software and enabling opportunities for individuals and Potential – Community Technology Skills start-ups, but also the development of cloud business to reach their potential. The cloud Program. Since 2004, Microsoft Malaysia has applications customised for the local market provides additional momentum for these programs donated approximately USD 1,008,431 worth such as the initiatives led by Multimedia to achieve new possibilities such as: of software to various NGOs. Development Corporation (MDeC). 1. Deploying an increasing array of enterprise-6. Providing the necessary skills to SME owners class cloud services in Malaysia on both a no- and employees in the safe and effective use of charge such as Windows Live Hotmail, MSN Conclusion these technologies as part of governments’ Messenger, SkyDrive and subscription basis broader training and education policies for services through such as Microsoft Office 365 The future growth of Malaysia will depend on the the SME sector; and and Windows Azure; development and fostering of a human capital and knowledge economy especially in the SME sector.7. A review and overhaul of often inconsistent 2. Investing in the technology ecosystem and The arrival of cloud computing is a real opportunity legacy regulations that have the potential to encouraging local innovators to use our for Malaysia to further extend IT adoption to the impede the deployment of cloud services Windows Azure platform to develop and SME sector and maximise their contribution to in various markets, such as carrier licenses, deploy applications and services for global the national economy. Furthermore, the cloud interception laws and other regulatory reach. Examples of this is a program called will not only make existing SMEs more efficient conditions that constrain the ability for global “BizSpark” and “DreamSpark” where we and competitive, but spur the incubation of new services to be launched in certain markets. provide start-up companies and individuals businesses and new business models and open respectively with most of our software for up the region to greater trade in digital goods and developing software solutions at no cost. In services.
August 2011 trends & issues The National Science and Research Council BY Dr. Vilasini Pillai34 The Council will also was proposed under the RMK-10 to improve the solicit inputs from INTRODUCTION governance of R&D as there was an urgent need to have a collective alignment of S&T priorities various experts locally Malaysia’s rapid growth in Science and Technology through an effective network of all government and internationally (S&T) since independence has transformed research institutes and facilities as well as energise that will be brought vital sectors including Industry, Government and Society, guided by policies such as the New a dynamic link with all S&T related entities. This is to ensure that a real time monitoring of the together under the Economic Policy (NEP 1971-1990), National impact of sectoral R & D funding can take place NSRC to formulate Development Policy (NDP 1991-2000) and the for maximising R & D productivity in the effective National Vision Policy (NVP 2001-2010). It implementation of the government’s plan for a and develop short-, has successfully transformed from a low-income high income economy. mid- and long-term S&T economy to a middle income and is facing its transformation plan, toughest challenge to move into a high income economy, which involves becoming technology The setting up of the NSRC was approved by Cabinet on the 10th of December 2010 to intiative and programs generating instead of technology importing where replace the dormant National Council of Science, for the country innovation is the key. Research and Development (NCSRD). The NSRC has been mandated to ensure that the S&T cuts across various sectors of commercial and country’s investments in science and technology social activities which come under the purview of are making the greatest possible contribution different ministries. Therefore the role of S&T in to a high- value economy through an increase in the economy has to be enhanced and strategised productivity, environmental quality, stimulation through a coordinated, cohesive and inclusive S&T in R&D and enhancement of the skills of the advisory system. The advisory mechanism must Malaysian workforce. have legitimacy, authority, capacity and linkages to deliver objective, neutral and timely advice. The The NSRC is the focal point to channel S&T National Science and Research Council (NSRC) inputs from various governmental organizations,
August 2011 trends & issuesindustries, academicians and non-governmental a dedicated entity in MOSTI, assisting in the to address issues identified. The EWGs will alsoorganizations including business and social implementation and execution of the council’s be called upon to conduct strategic evaluation ofassociations to be consolidated as strategic strategic plans and programmes across the relevant projects sent in by respective funding MinistriesS&T inputs that are neutral, non-bias and Ministries/Agencies. and for final feedback to the Council through thenon-ministerial to the Prime Minister and the Secretariat. The EWGs set up are as follows:Government of Malaysia. The Council will alsosolicit inputs from various experts locally and • Environmental Sciencesinternationally that will be brought together THE EXPERT WORKING GROUPS • Advanced Material Sciencesunder the NSRC to formulate and develop short-, • Agriculture Sciencesmid- and long-term S&T transformation plan, Under the NSRC, 10 Expert Working Groups • Life Sciencesinitiative and programs for the country to drive (EWG) have been identified in various science • Chemical SciencesMalaysia transformation into Knowledge – and based focus areas. The EWGs, according to their • Mathematics & Physical SciencesInnovation-led economy. These strategic plans will respective scope, will be tasked to develop R&D • Computer Sciences & ICTalso provide bold and practical recommendations Roadmaps and Strategies with the assistance and • Health & Medical Sciencesso that it can be part of the backbone of the New consultation of various stakeholders. These then • Engineering SciencesEconomic Model, be integrated into the 10th will be used by the Council to set National R&D • Humanities & Social SciencesMalaysian Plan and delivered through the 11th Priorities as well as initiate Top-Down ChallengesMalaysian Plan.Its unique position will allow it a platform to Figure 1 Operational Structure and Frameworkprovide long range scientific advice on issues ofnational importance, highlighting areas of researchthat will provide the greatest benefit to the Rakyat PMOtaking into account the multi-disciplinary and crosscutting nature of the various Ministries involvedin R&D. This council will align and synchronize Priority SettingS&T focus to consolidate the research efforts in Mechanism for R&D National Science and Researcha manner that will minimize duplication, overlap Investment Council (NSRC) 35and redundancy; to drive convergence; andmonitor and evaluate the country’s knowledge, Scientific Fraternitytechnology and innovation and product Industryportfolios. A review of a quality and evaluation Ministries/ Govt Agenciessystem to assess S&T projects will be initiated by Fundersthe Council to enhance research outcomes. TheCouncil is also mandated to provide accurate, Secretariat at MOSTIrelevant, and timely scientific and technical adviceand also ensure that government policies areinformed by sound science to the stakeholders. R&D Programmes Govt Grants Cess Funds Evaluation and Outcome Monitoring Bilateral Funding Multilateral FundingOPERATIONAL STRUCTURE Assistance AssistanceThe NSRC operates in an inclusive, autonomous,transparent and consultative manner. Themembers of the council are appointed by the Rt. Expert Working Groups (EWGs)Hon. Prime Minister for a term of 2 years andrenewable once. Environmental Sciences Advanced Material SciencesCurrently, there are 25 council members appointed Agriculture Sciences can be contacted at:for the term 2011-2012 and they are from The NSRC Secretariat Life SciencesMinistries, Government Agencies, Universities, Chemical SciencesIndustry and the Academy of Sciences. The Chair NSRC Secretariat Mathematics & Physical Sciences Technology andof the NSRC is Prof. Emeritus Dato’ Dr. Zakri Ministry of Science, Computer Sciences & ICTAbdul Hamid, Science Advisor to the Rt. Hon. Innovation Health & Medical Sciences plex CPrime Minister. Level 6, Block C5, Com Engineering Sciences Administrative Centre Federal Government Humanities & Social Sciences aysiaThe NSRC is supported by a Secretariat in the 62662 Putrajaya, MalMinistry of Science, Technology and Innovation Tel: 03-8885 8298(MOSTI). The Secretariat under the NSRC is Fax: 03-8888 7710
August 2011 NSRC Council Members 1 2 3 4 1. Prof. Emeritus Dato’ Dr. Zakri Abdul Hamid (Chairman) 5 6 Science Advisor to the Prime Minister 2. Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Hj Omar Abdul Rahman Academy of Sciences Malaysia 3. Prof Emeritus Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Augustine ONG SOON HOCK36 Academy of Sciences Malaysia 4. Dato Ir Lee Yee Cheong Academy of Sciences Malaysia 5. YM Tengku Datuk Dr. Mohd Azzman Shariffadeen Tengku Ibrahim Director, Pernec Corporation Berhad 7. Prof. Dato’ Dr. Khalid Yusoff 7 8 9 Professor, Medicine and 6. Brig. Jen. Prof. Datuk Seri Panglima Dr. Senior Consultant Cardiologist, Kamaruzaman Hj Ampon Dean, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Teknologi Mara 10 11 12 Vice-Chancellor, Universiti Malaysia Sabah 8. Prof. Dato’ Dr. Muhamad Rasat Muhamad President, Multimedia University 9. Datuk Ir (Dr.) Abdul Rahim Hashim President, Malaysian Gas Association, President, International Gas Union 10. Prof. Dr. Jalani Sukaimi Dean, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia 11. Prof. Datin Dr. Azizan Baharuddin Director, Centre for Civilisational Dialogue, University of Malaya 12. Dato’ Amdan Mat Din Ranhill Bhd.
August 2011 13 14 15 13. Prof. Dr. Rajah Rasiah Professor, Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Economics and Administration, 16 17 University of Malaya 14. PROF. Dr. Jane Cardosa Chief Scientific Officer, Sentinext Therapeutics Sdn. Bhd. 15. Prof. Dr. Halimaton Hamdan Head, National Nanotechnology Directorate, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 37 16. Prof. Dr. Jayum Anak Jawan Deputy Dean (Postgraduate Studies), Faculty of Human Ecology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 17. Dr. David Lacey Director, Osram Opto Semiconductors (M) Sdn. Bhd.NSRC Secretariat 1 1. Dr. Vilasini Pillai Head of Secretariat 2 3 2. Amutham Subramaniam 3. Abbil Ajes Mohammad Hanieff
August 2011 trends & issues Can We Ignore Nuclear? BY MUhammad Hasif HASAN38 Several studies show that nuclear E nergy is indispensable. Not many will The revival in the global interest in nuclear power energy is dispute that. Without adequate energy, within the past several years has been attributed cost-effective the entire world will be paralysed. This in no small measure to the growing concern over is why energy is a priority. the future supply of fossil. The almost explosive demand by India and China is one factor fuelling There are many energy concerns though. Adequate such worry. Nuclear is also attractive because of supply to meet the growing global demand is one. the global warming issue. Nuclear power offers In fact, energy has been at the centre of many much reduced carbon emission. However, those in nuclear power attractive. Increasing fossil fuel prices conflicts; most are about the struggle to assume the climate change committee have yet to include have also greatly improved the economics of nuclear control over key energy sources, especially fossil nuclear as a mitigation measure. But nuclear does power. Several studies show that nuclear energy is hotspots around the world. For decades, the world have its share of the negatives. Top of the list is the the most cost-effective of the available technologies. has been over dependent on fossil energy for fuel. issue of safety, particularly those concerning the In addition, as carbon emission reductions are These are mainly crude petroleum, coal and natural disposal of the reactor’s radioactive wastes. The encouraged through various forms of government gas. But fossil fuels have also been blamed for global other has to do with the potential abuse to produce incentives and trading schemes, the economic warming, a phenomenon which poses threat to the nuclear weapons. But proponents of nuclear power benefits of nuclear power will increase further. A well-being of the planet. The search for less harmful say all such negatives are not unmanageable. In fact longer-term advantage of uranium over fossil fuels alternatives has been going on for years. A number the claim is that, thanks to improved design over is the low impact that increased fuel prices will have of options have emerged. Both solar and wind the years, the new generation of reactors have much on the final electricity production costs, since a large have received a lot of intention. But solar is still reduced safety risks. proportion of those costs are in the capital cost of expensive; whilst wind is limited to strong wind the plant. This insensitivity to fuel price fluctuations areas. Increasingly, nuclear power has come under It has become evident that a major topic of concern offers a way to stabilize power prices in deregulated the spotlight. in global energy is the security of supply, as countries markets. As the nuclear industry is moving away experience interrupted deliveries of oil and gas. The from small national programmes towards global abundance of naturally occurring uranium makes cooperative schemes, serial production of new
August 2011 trends & issues 39Should Malaysia go nuclear? While it is true that there are stilllingering doubts among consumers on the safety of nuclear,such concerns are not as big as they used to be.plants will drive construction costs down and is important, and in some cases essential, in the of the renewed interest in nuclear Many initiativesfurther increase the competitiveness of nuclear light of their lack of domestic fossil fuel resources were taken in the aftermath of the Three Mileenergy. and limited potential for harnessing efficiently Island and Chernobyl to incorporate a strong safety renewable energy sources. Over 60 further nuclear culture throughout the world nuclear industry.In fact, nuclear energy is a well-established power reactors are under construction, equivalentcomponent of electricity supply in many OECD to 17% of existing capacity, while over 150 are So, should Malaysia go nuclear? While it is true thatcountries. There are now 439 nuclear reactors in firmly planned, and equivalent to 46% of present there are still lingering doubts among consumersoperation around the world in over 30 countries, capacity. on the safety of nuclear, such concerns are notproviding almost 16% of the world’s electricity. The as big as they used to be. Furthermore, with thefirst commercial reactors came into operation during However, the implementation of nuclear projects new developments in reactor design, the safetythe late 1950s, but the industry really “took off ” in often raises social concerns about risks associated standards of nuclear power plants continue tothe 1970s, when concern over energy security and with possible releases of radioactivity in routine witness improvement. At the same time, nuclearfossil fuel prices prompted many governments and and accidental situations, radioactive waste disposal scientists are exploring other reaction mechanismspower companies to consider nuclear plants. Over and nuclear weapons proliferation. The natural in the interest of improving safety, reliability and200 reactors came into operation during the 1980s, disaster that struck Japan recently has raised several cost. For example, the fusion rather the fissionbut by the end of the decade, there had already been questions on the reliability of the plant to withstand reactions, has been claimed to produce less waste.a marked slowdown of orders prompted by a range such damaging shocks. But we should also be Experiments on such options have already reachedof economic and public acceptance issues. reminded that the Fukushima reactor design has a pilot stage. Obviously, R&D on nuclear should not been upgraded to the latest in the market. Now go on. This is because, whatever the risks, theCurrently, nearly one quarter of the electricity there are available new generation reactors which technology does offer many benefits for mankind.consumed in OECD countries is generated by offer much better safety guarantee. The superb It would be retrogressive for the world if we do notsome 350 nuclear units in operation in 16 member safety record achieved by the current generation continue to rise to the challenge of this technologycountries. For several of those countries, the of reactors has led to increased confidence among for energy generation.contribution of nuclear energy to security of supply the public. Such confidence in fact forms the basis
August 2011 viewpoints40
August 2011 viewpointsForesight on ConstructionTechnologyManufactured Housing/Industrialised BuildingSystem (IBS) BY ABDUL RAHMAN HAMDAN The economy will play a critical factor for a Overview Expectations from Scenario Planning 41 technology such as IBS In this article, the scenario planning tool, one because prosperous of the many foresight techniques will be used to This scenario planning time frame covers until the analyse the potential of manufactured housing year 2025 with multiple scenarios will be createdeconomy will eventually to be the mainstream technology for Malaysia based on several possible outcomes. The outcomes create more housing in the future. The manufactured housing or will be chronology of events that will lead up to the projects. Population commonly known as the Industrialised Building status of the industry in 2025. System (IBS) has been making waves in the increase will also spur Malaysian Construction Industry so far due to One of the environments driving force that development of the the Government’s commitment in reducing the will influence the scenario planning will be the foreign labour and, at the same time innovating economy. The economy will play a critical factor technology. Any events the construction processes. for a technology such as IBS because prosperousthat affect the economy economy will eventually create more housing and population of By definition, IBS or referred to in some projects. Population increase will also spur countries as prefabricated construction, is development of the technology. Any events that the country will have a methodology whereby components are affect the economy and population of the country the highest impact produced in a controlled environment (either will have the highest impact to the technology. The in factories or on-site), and transported and company will also be affected by any events that to the technology. assembled at project sites. increase the cost of construction materials such as cements and steels. However, it is important for any company to be involved in this industry to include the foresight As can be seen in the trends of manufacturing analysis in determining the possibility of growth in other industries, the method of production is for this technology. Therefore a scenario no longer in mass production but is now gearing planning tool is critical in assessing the potential towards mass customisation. The customer’s business that can be derived. The tool can be demands are now more demanding than ever used to predict the future of this technology and they want quality in the products that they and whether it can still be relevant up until purchased. Therefore, the construction industry 2025. Scenario planning tool can be used to has no option but to abide to this growing trend. If a generate several possible future scenarios of the disruptive technology emerges in the construction construction & housing industry and therefore industry that can replace IBS, it is predicted that preparing the company in any possible outcomes the technology must also be in the line of mass of the future. customization and faster delivery.
August 2011 viewpoints Description of the Work Method Work Method The scenario planning tool will be shown step by Step 2: step as the stories for the multiple scenarios is being Understand the Driving Force developed through the four steps. The four steps of Step 1: the scenario planning tool consist of: Setting the Scene In this exercise, ideas are thrown and listed without any particular order. The listings of Step 1 – Setting the Scene The vision and mission of this exercise is to ideas are as shown in Table 1. Step 2 – Understand the Driving Force predict the status of Malaysia’s construction Step 3 – Plot Scenarios & housing industry and the relevancy of Clustering the ideas Step 4 – Strategy, rehearsal IBS or manufactured housing. The tool is and convention also being used to predict for any disruptive The ideas generated can then be clustered technology that can replace IBS. The time into the environment driving forces as shown Based on the multiple scenarios created, strategies frame will cover up until the year 2025 and in Table 2. will be developed to prepare the company for the will be based on several environment driving predicted future. forces such as political, economic, social, technological, ecology, legal and structure. Table 1 Ideas of Possible Futures and Scenarios Population increases dramatically. 1 Malaysia’s population reaches 50 million. World War 3 erupted. 2 Many houses being destroyed. Shortage of houses.42 Big Earthquake in Malaysia. 3 Needs of houses to be built quickly to replace damage houses Change in consumer behaviour. 4 People change houses as similar as people change cars today. New models of houses come up every year. Changes of lifestyles whereby people change doors and windows very frequent as similar as they change curtains and furniture during festive occasions. Foreign labours big riot. 5 – Government stops taking labours from foreign countries – Construction industry collapse and housing projects halted Indonesia economy collapse. 6 – Many unemployed workers. Government of Malaysia decides to help and let back the Indonesia foreign workers to work in Malaysia. This causes influx of foreign labours and the construction industry falls back to use traditional method since it is cheaper than using IBS. Population drop. 7 - Widespread infertility and falling birthrates. Decreases home buyers. Housing industry falls. Economic crisis. 8 - Inflation reaches 200%. People do not have the money to buy houses anymore. People buying houses drastically reduce and therefore no more housing projects. Disruptive Technology. 9 – People no longer live in houses but in capsules. This capsule is provided by the Government free of charge and portable. Big Flood. 10 – Sunken entire coast of Malaysia. Houses are now being built underwater. Indonesia becomes an economic power house. 11 - All Indonesian foreign workers move back to their country since employment is abundant there. Malaysia has shortage of foreign workers. Prices of construction materials such as cement and steel goes 200% up. 12 – The price of house and building escalates. Houses use glass or woods as materials. Government’s Policy. 13 – Buildings are now mandatory required to be energy efficient.
August 2011 viewpoints It is important for any company to be involved in this industry to include the foresight analysis in determining the possibility of growth for this technology. Therefore a scenario planning tool is critical in assessing the potential business that can be derived. Regulatory Changes.14 – Government promotes one standard system of manufactured houses to be followed by the industry. Globalisation.15 – Big companies that have established technology in home manufacturing such as Japan enters Malaysian markets. Offer less expensive and better quality houses. 43 Change of Ruling party.16 - The opposition wins the general election and becoming the ruling party. Malaysia has a radical leadership.17 - The country starts to build nuclear weapons. Economic sanction imposed by the United Nations. Malaysia’s relations to neighbouring countries worsened.18 - Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand cuts diplomatic ties with Malaysia Global warming drastically increase.19 - International regulations have been imposed. Malaysia can no longer cut its trees to developed lands. Houses and building projects become stagnant. Oil reserve of the world depleted.20 - The new renewable energy is biofuel. Lands in Malaysia are now being used to grow Palm Oil. Available lands for housing decreases. Building and Housing remains stagnant. Strange diseases struck and spread throughout Malaysia.21 - More hospitals are needed. A strange disease struck and no cure can be found.22 - Population of Malaysia reduces drastically. Malaysia enters a biotechnology boom as global demands growing stronger.23 - Malaysia’s education is revamped to cater to these demands. Ninety percent of Malaysian workforce will graduate and work in the Biotechnology sectors. Construction industries are left with no knowledge workers and therefore have to start taking back foreign workers. Nuclear War erupted causes the environment to change.24 - People now start to live underground due to the harsh environment outside such as acid rain and thunderstorm. Military Coup.25 - Malaysia is a military government. All houses and building are to be built only by government appointed agencies with military require- ments.
August 2011 viewpoints Table 2 Environment Driving Forces Areas Cause Effect Change of Ruling party The opposition wins the general election. Government’s Policy Buildings are now required mandatory to be energy efficient. Political Malaysia has a radical leadership The country starts to build nuclear weapons. Economic sanction imposed by UN. Malaysia is a military government. All houses and building are to be built only by government Military Coup. appointed agencies with military requirements. Inflation reaches 200% Economic crisis - People do not have the money to buy houses anymore. People buying houses drastically reduce and therefore no more housing projects. Many unemployed workers. Malaysia Government decides to help and let back the Indonesia Indonesia economy collapse foreign workers to work in Malaysia. Influx of foreign labours. This causes the construction industry to fall back to use traditional method since it is cheaper than using IBS. Economic World War 3 erupted Many houses being destroyed. Shortage of houses. Indonesia becomes an economic All Indonesian foreign workers move back to their country since employment is abundant power house. there. Malaysia has shortage of foreign workers. Prices of construction materials such The price of house and building escalates. Houses use glass or woods as materials. as cement and steel goes 200% up Big companies that have established technology in home manufacturing such as Japan Globalisation enters Malaysian markets. Offer less expensive and better quality houses.44 Population increases dramatically Malaysia’s population reaches 50 million. Government stops taking labours from foreign countries. Construction industry collapsed. All Foreign labours big riot projects halted. Social People change houses as similar as people change cars today. New models of house come Change in consumer behaviour up every year. Changes of lifestyles, people change doors and windows very frequent as similar they change curtains and furniture during festive occasions. Population drop Widespread infertility and falling birthrates. Decreases home buyers. Housing industry falls. People no longer live in houses but in capsules. This capsule is provided by the Government Disruptive Technology free of charge and portable. Technological Malaysia enters a biotechnology Malaysia’s education is revamped to cater to these demands. Ninety percent of Malaysian boom as global demands growing workforce will graduate and work in the Biotechnology sectors. Construction industries are stronger left with no knowledge workers and therefore have to start taking back foreign workers. Big Earthquake in Malaysia Needs of houses quickly to replace damage houses. Big Flood Sunken entire coast of Malaysia. Houses are now being built underwater. International regulations have been imposed. Malaysia can no longer cut its trees to Global warming drastically increase developed lands. Houses and building projects become stagnant. The new renewable energy is biofuel. Lands in Malaysia are now being used to grow Palm Oil. Oil reserve of the world depleted Ecology Lands for housing decreases. Building and Housing remains stagnant. Strange diseases struck and spread More hospitals are needed. throughout Malaysia A strange disease struck and no cure Population of Malaysia reduces drastically. can be found Nuclear War erupted causes the People now start to live underground due to the harsh environment outside such as acid rain environment to change and thunderstorm. Legal Regulatory Changes Malaysia’s population reaches 50 million. Malaysia’s relations to neighbouring Structure countries worsened Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand cuts diplomatic ties with Malaysia.
August 2011 viewpointsFigure 1 Impact to Organization versus Uncertainty MatrixHIGH 4 20 2 3 9 19 1 5 7 6 15 23 24 8 IM 12 21 22 PACT TO 17 11 ORGAN 14 ISATIO N 10 45 16 18 13 25LOW LOW UNCERTAINTY HIGHFigure 2 Economy versus Housing Technology Matrix Y1 Step 3: Plot Scenarios S3 S1 The lists of ideas are then plotted in a matrix of ‘impact to organization versus uncertainty’ as shown in Figure 1. E CONOMY Based on the highest impact and highest uncertainty in the previous matrix, a matrix of ‘Economy versus S4 S2 Housing Technology’ is then created to produce the multiple scenarios as shown in Figure 2. Y2 From the matrix of ‘Economy versus Housing Technology’, multiple scenarios were created. Based on X1 HOUSING TECHNOLOGY X2 the storyline, the scenarios are named Renaissance, Reformation, Retribution and Revolution.
August 2011 viewpoints The earlier perception before the scenario planning was that any disruption to the economy of the country will automatically disrupt the construction industry. The findings from the ‘Reformation’ scenario shows that even with unstable government and economic disruption, IBS can still flourished. Renaissance Scenario He starts to modernize the military and announces other countries to follow suit. Several countries to the world that Malaysia is now making nuclear started to form alliance and started the beginning of 2012 – Malaysia’s starts to invest in Biotechnology weapon for defensive purposes. This causes uproar the Third World War. Pre-emptive strikes on several and focuses on Malaysia’s unique Biodiversity by the international arena. Prices for materials such ASEAN countries including Malaysia have occurred. as a niche. Education in schools and college are as cement and steel starts to escalate. revamped to produce skill workers in Biotechnology. 2020 – World War 3 ended. Malaysia suffers46 Construction industry receives a boost as the demand 2020 - Malaysia announces that it now have heavy losses and damages in terms of buildings for infrastructure on Biotechnology increases. nuclear weapon. The United Nations decided to and houses. Thousands of people are left homeless. impose economic sanction on Malaysia. Material The Government is in critical need of houses and 2015 – Malaysia starts to feel the heat of cost such as cement and steel went up 200%. Many buildings. At the same time, an invention called globalization as companies that have established construction projects are abandoned due to the ‘Capsule House’ has been invented. The capsule technology in manufacturing houses starts to enter rapid increase of material cost. Indonesia and other houses invention is very cheap and it is portable. The Malaysia in a big way. Japanese companies are now countries stop sending their workers to Malaysia due Government decides to give each Malaysian, one offering better and cheaper manufactured houses. to the economic sanction therefore creating shortage person one capsule and free of charge. Other sectors are also suffering the same fate. This of workers. increases the need for Malaysia to specialize on niche 2025 – Companies that promote technology such as areas such as biotechnology. 2025 – Industrialised Building System gained Industrialised Building System is no longer relevant rapid acceptance due to the high price of concrete as Capsules Houses are made in bulk volumes and 2020 – Malaysia enters a new era as biotechnology and shortage of workers. Houses in Malaysia now subsidized by the Government. starts to generate wealth for the country. The use timber panel and glass panel for construction. construction industry suffers the lack of knowledge Fully automated factories are used to produce these Revolution Scenario workers due to the preference of graduates to go into components. the more prestige biotechnology industry. 2012 – Indonesia the neighbouring country of Retribution Scenario Malaysia starts an economic reform. It aims to 2025 – Malaysia becomes a developed country. become a developed country by 2020. The salary workers in all industries increase 200%. 2012 – A big earthquake and followed by a big Construction industries are finding alternatives to flood devastated Malaysia. From the aftermath of 2015 – Employment opportunities in Indonesia reduce the cost of construction projects. Industries the catastrophe, Malaysia needs houses quickly as increase 200% and therefore creating an exodus are now starting to implement technology in many homeless people are in need of shelter. The of workers migrating from Malaysia to Indonesia. construction. company previously involved in IBS benefits from Malaysia suffers from critical depleting workforce. At this as it can deliver 10,000 units of manufactured the same time, Malaysia suffers from a strange disease Reformation Scenario houses within 3 months. Government starts that spreads and decreases Malaysia’s population. funding research on new technology in housing 2012 – The Government calls for a general election. and how to quicken the delivery of houses. 2020 – Indonesia becomes an economic power At the end of the election process, the opposition has house. Indonesia’s population increases drastically. won the majority seats and therefore making them 2015 – Some of the developed nation and Malaysia’s economy started to collapse due to the ruling party. superpower countries decided to attack Iran and the shortage of skilled workers. The diseases are 2015 – The new Prime Minister of Malaysia Syria for suspicion of having Weapons of Mass spreading rapidly throughout Malaysia. appointed is a very radical and aggressive person. Destruction. This pre-emptive strike has caused
August 2011 viewpoints2025 - The collapse of Malaysian economy and Scenario Strategyadded by the chaos caused by the disease hasmade the government very unstable. This chaos is Retribution Scenario The company’s strategy at thisfollowed by a military coup. The Government is 2012 – A big earthquake and followed by a big flood devastated point of time is to increase theoverthrown. Housing projects are totally controlled Malaysia. From the aftermath of the catastrophe, Malaysia needs capacity of delivering houses inby the government with only appointed agencies houses quickly as many homeless people are in need of shelter. thousands of unit. 20% of thecan build buildings and houses. The company benefits from this as it can deliver 2,000 units of profit margin gain will be used manufactured houses in within 3 months. Government starts in research & development in funding research on new technology in housing and how to improving the technology. quicken the delivery of houses. The company is preparing to Step 4: enter the Indonesian market as Revolution Scenario Strategy, Rehearsal & Convention the volume for houses will grow if 2012 – Indonesia the neighbouring country of Malaysia starts an economic reform. It aims to become a developed country by 2020. the aim of becoming a developed In step 4, scenario 3 and 4 are chosen due to country is achieved by Indonesia. the highest negative impact it can bring to a company that have IBS as their core business. Retribution Scenario The strategy of the company Several strategies are then formulated to 2015 – Some of the developed nations decided to attack Iran will be to start stockpiling counter the predicted scenarios. and Syria for suspicion of having Weapons of Mass Destruction. construction materials such This pre-emptive strike has caused other countries to follow suit. as cement and steels and wait Several countries started to form alliance and started the beginning until the war is over. At the idle of World War 3. A pre-emptive strike on several ASEAN countries stage, the company will start including Malaysia has also occurred. to increase the capacity of their manufacturing capability Revolution Scenario in anticipating the demand for 2015 – Employment opportunities in Indonesia increase 200% and houses. therefore creating an exodus of workers migrating from Malaysia toAnalysis of Results As the preparation has been Indonesia. Malaysia suffers from critical depleting workforce. At the 47 same time, Malaysia suffers from a strange disease that spreads done earlier, the company canConstruction industry in Malaysia has always start to enter Indonesia’s market. and decreases Malaysia’s population.been a local industry. It is government drivenand therefore any affect to the government will Retribution Scenario The company’s increaseaffect the construction industry. The scenario 2020 – World War 3 ended. Malaysia suffers heavy losses and capacity in manufacturingplanning done earlier, took the account of severe damages in terms of buildings and houses. Thousands of people houses has tremendously helpeconomic disruption to the country. The earlier are left homeless. The Government is in critical need of houses and the government in providingperception before the scenario planning was that buildings. At the same time, an invention called ‘Capsule House’ houses to the homeless peopleany disruption to the economy of the country will has been invented. The capsule houses invention is very cheap after the war. The research thatautomatically disrupt the construction industry. and it is portable. The Government decides to give each Malaysian, have been done earlier alsoThe findings from the ‘Reformation’ scenario shows one person one capsule and free of charge. have produces technology thatthat even with unstable government and economic is even better than the ‘Capsuledisruption, IBS can still flourished. Revolution Scenario House’. 2020 – Indonesia becomes an economic power house. Indonesia’sInitial perception also suggests that as population population increases drastically. Malaysia’s economy started to The company has successfullyincrease, so will the need for housing. This will in collapse due to the shortage of skilled workers. The diseases are captured the Indonesia’s marketturn profit the company. But the initial perception spreading rapidly throughout Malaysia. for housing. The company’sdid not take into the account of very sudden and operation also has moved fromvery high demands for housing for the entire Malaysia to Indonesia.country in a short period of time as shown in‘Retribution’ scenario. In that scenario, the demand Retribution Scenario Due to the extensive research 2025 – Companies that promote technology such as Industrialised done earlier by the company,for houses is too high; the Government opted for a Building System is no longer relevant as Capsules Houses are it has produced an even bettermore advance technology that eventually replaces made in bulk volumes and subsidized by the Government. version of the capsule house.IBS. Revolution Scenario The company has now moveOther initial perception includes the cost of 2025 - The collapse of Malaysian economy and added by forward from the Indonesia’smaterials for construction industry. It was assumed the chaos caused by the disease has made the government market to other global market asthat any increase of cost for construction materials very unstable. This chaos is followed by a military coup. The Malaysia’s market is no longerespecially cement and steel will definitely have Government is overthrown. Housing projects are totally controlled suitable.high impact to the construction industry. From the‘Reformation’ scenario, it shows that the industry by the government with only appointed agencies can build buildingwill eventually find alternative to replace this and houses.materials.
August 2011 viewpoints A Letter From the scenario planning exercise also, a major future strategic activity has been identified that was not on the previous plan of the company. As can From The Future be seen in the ‘Revolution’ scenario, the company decided to move its operation into other countries and therefore started to penetrate the global market. BY Patrick Ethe Raj Executive Director, Review and Conclusion Nasmech Technology Sdn. Bhd. The scenario planning exercise shows that initial guesses on the outcome of an event can be very different if the event went through scenario planning. Assuming that radical Dear Friend, and catastrophic events will usually bring negative impact to businesses can It has been 10 years since you migrated sometimes be misleading. The skill sets that and I have stayed back due to scenario planning provides are the ability environment of safety, political balance to manage the future. By predicting the and security, social integrity and lastly unpredictable, the outcome of the future will our medical health benefits. not be as shocking since the anticipation of the event have been made. By strategising the Our country is actually credible and company based on the worst case scenarios has good governance. However, as will make the company more flexible in you see and know, we are still in our management and also its approach. Strategic traditional economy base and have48 decision can then be made based on several not changed very much. I wonder if we indicators of future development. ever will. Our income has grown but net disposable income … Well, I still ride the old iron horse and live in same old house because my disposable The end result of the tool can also be varied according income, should I say, is insufficient for me to afford new ride and home. to the person or the group who is drafting the story line. Multiple scenarios that have been created are Some people – politician of course – claim our education system is at par, if not better, than usually based on that people or group’s personal some developed countries, but they send their children overseas for further education. Of experience and knowledge. This will limit the course I would do the same if I can afford them. The state of human capital development and result to a demographic, culture, value and religious knowledge base is in great need of improvement. Do not forget our language barrier if we background of the group or person. For example, a want to go global. Innovation is at almost 0% and the country and we are not bothered. person or a group consisting people from Asia that was given the same list of ideas will generate different Globalization has played no role in our development. The information knowledge story line compared to a person or group consisting management and communication has evolved. But we are going nowhere and happy with people from Europe. The result of the scenario our traditional economy. (Agriculture, Commodity, etc). planning can be improved by forming a group that consists of people from different background, skills As you know, we are still ‘going by the book’ in many ways and you can know our commitment and society. This will enhance the story line even in Copenhagen for 40% reduction. All are still wondering on why we committed to this as further and create multiple scenarios that can be our education, innovation and S&T requires more attention. shocking and worthwhile. However my friend, as you know I, as a typical Malaysian enjoy my own comfort zone and Einstein once quoted ‘A problem cannot be solved in safety. I have watched the world move on and yet I’m not bothered. I am happy as usual as I the same framework where the problem was created’. have come to conclude my way of life in ‘Don’t worry, be happy’. Therefore one suggestion that can improve the result of the scenario planning is by separating the group of Hope you enjoy your life in your new home. As for me, as my nasi people who created the storyline with the group who lemak and laksa in my back stall brings me huge relief and will create the strategies to counter and prepared the happiness. company’s decision based on the storyline. By doing this, the group who will derive the strategies will have Regards, different and fresher view of the multiple scenarios storyline. Effective strategies can then be created and Patrick Ethe Raj be used by the company with even better planning.
MAP THE FUTUREAs a strategic policymaker or stakeholder, you can help map out adesired future for Malaysia.This is an invitation by myForesight™ to build a collective future.Do you find this magazine thought-provoking? Do you think wecould have done better? Perhaps you would like us to cover aspecific angle in the study of Foresight.Or maybe, you would like to contribute articles to the myForesight™magazine? Send your feedback and articles to firstname.lastname@example.org. Website: www.myforesight.myWe look forward to hearing from you.myForesight™ team