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Mobile Developer Conference Hamburg Keynote
 

Mobile Developer Conference Hamburg Keynote

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This is the keynote presentation held by David An from Playandroid.com at the Mobile Developer conference http://www.mobile-developer-conference.de/

This is the keynote presentation held by David An from Playandroid.com at the Mobile Developer conference http://www.mobile-developer-conference.de/

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    Mobile Developer Conference Hamburg Keynote Mobile Developer Conference Hamburg Keynote Presentation Transcript

    • Keynote Speech David An Rumble Media GmbH David An @an_david @doUdroid Gplus.to/davidanDavid An 19.10.2011
    • Agenda I. Personal introduction II. Success factors of mobile technologies III. Some advice IV. About Playandroid.comDavid An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction I. Personal introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction 1995 From Text to html  MS Word Macro  Get pure text and add  simple tags like <html> and </html> to make it html  some graphics and hyperlinks David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction Tech Buzzwords 10-15 years ago POI / POS Terminals Interactiv media Multimedia David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction 1995 - 2000 Dot.com & the New Economy David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction The stock market crash was on March10, 2000 David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction Taking a longer view, technology is growing We are recovering from 2008 David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2005 - The year of myspace.com Bought for 580 Million Dollar by NewsCorporation Sold for 1 Million Dollar in 2009 David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction -2006- The year facebook .. going beyond colleges David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2007 – Steve Jobs releases iPhone in January Subprime mortgage crisis David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2008 - Twitter with 50 Million tweets per day Lehman Brothers bankruptcy David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2009 - Zynga with 60 Millionen DAU Banking Crisis David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2010 - Angry Birds & Android 33% share of Market Android End of 2010 Angry Birds has ~500 M downloads Banking & Debt Crisis David An 19.10.2011
    • I. Personal Introduction - 2011 - Android overtakes iOS GPlus 50 Millionen users after three months Currency/EU & Debt Crisis David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Mobile Technologies Quo vadis David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Fastest historical mass adoption is Android & iOS David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies No doubt with smartphones and tablets we will reach the post PC-era Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Smartphone penetration will reach ~98% in 4 years assuming linar progression David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Curren Technology Buzzwords html5 Farmville cloud computing Twitter social games android Mobile Apps API Facebook NFC voice Amazon fire social commerce iOS saas Angry Birds … i am sure there are more David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Buzzwords clustered NFC cloud computing iOS Tizen David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Buzzwords clustered technologies platforms applications services David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies What matters is still the same Direct and indirect network effects Users & Developers 31 David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Direct developer-developer network effects developer developer developer platforms & technoligies developer developer developer The more developers the higher the degree of engagement Developer could The highel standardization, tools, progress also be OEM Open standards foster sharing and the building of tools producer David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies HTC opensense Platforms & Technologies David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Direct user-user network effects user user user Applications & Services user user user The more users connect the higher the value of the network Metcalfes law version 2 the value of a network of sizen grows like n log(n). David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Tablets & the post PC era Apps & Services „The bar lends the digital hardware to each party of customers, who can communicate with people they take a shine to at other tables due to a special program that intra-links the tabs. They first talk on an instant messaging service, then move on to video chatting and finally, if all goes well, elect to share a table.“ David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Indirect user – developer network effects users users users users users Application & services developer developer developer developer developer The more users the more developers. The more developers (apps/services/content) the more users David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Networks can be „winner takes it all“ David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Mobile OS Race - Android - iOS - Blackberry - Windows - Bada ...are those with the highest current PR noise David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Mobile OS Race Android currently has strongest trajectory However Android is not Android David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android Fragmentation Device & Model OS Version OS Branch Fragmentation Fragmentation Fragmentation List of OEMs David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android Fragmentation Device & Model OS Version OS Branch Fragmentation Fragmentation Fragmentation 2.1. Eclair 2.2. Froyo 2.3. Gingerbread 3.x Honeycomb (tablet only) 4.x Ice Cream Sandwich David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android Fragmentation Device & Model OS Version OS Branch Fragmentation Fragmentation Fragmentation OS Branch Fragmentation There could be ~ 6 branches of different android versions driven by OEMs David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Amazon – the hidden empire - Selling service (Amazons products) - 1 Click buy - Amazon Storage Cloud - Amazon webservices Strong competition to Android Market & iTunes/iCloud Dual-core 1GHz TI OMAP - Indirect network effects ! processor 512MB of memory. The more Fire users the 8GB of storage on Amazon cloud more content the more $ 199 (~ 10$ loss making) developers and vice versa David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android devices from China Xiaomi Phone with MIUI OS: a $310 Android with 1.5GHz dual-core (sep 2011) 8 Million Smartphones sold in Q4, 2010 of which Android was 50% David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Alternative Android OS by Baidu David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android bridging the digital divide? Oct 2011 Indias "$35" tablet has launched at a price of $61, but may be subsidized by the government to as low as $30 for students Aakash UbiSlate 7" tablet runs Android 2.2 on a 366MHz Conexant processor, with 256MB RAM and 2GB flash, and features a seven-inch, 800 x 480 resistive display. David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Android is not really open Access: availability of the latest source code, developer support mechanisms, public roadmap and transparency of decision- making Development: the ability of developers to influence the content and direction of the project Derivatives: the opportunity for developers to create and distribute derivatives of the source code in the form of spin-off projects, handsets or applications. Community: a community structure that does not discriminate between developers Andy Rubin: „Android is opensourced but not community driven“ David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Scenarios 1. Androids will win the race → winner takes it all 2. iOS and the others will keep significant share → html5 and multiplatform development tools will drive coexistence → Value will migrate away from OS layer → site note: Windows sold only 3.6M smartphones Q1 2011, but has over 25k apps! „Scenario 2 likely to happen“ David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies However HTML 5 will need time HTML 5 Flash + Open standard + All PCs more or less Flash enabled but blocked in iOS + All mobile browsers support Html 5 (WebKIT as defacto + Flash Professional Tool - no authoring tools (iAd) + Flex Framework - no DRM + Huge network - years behind re rich media - Resource intensive and gaming experience - Software license needed - W3C HTML5 standard completion in 2014, still - Closed standard fragmented Lack of developer network effects due to lack of standards and technologies (tools) http://bit.ly/r3N4bp Visionmobile Research David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies At Rumble Media we Strongly believe in HTML 5 Mobile Game Portal m.fettspielen.de HTML5 touchscreen Games And flash lite Available for all touchscreen smartphones David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Potential industry drivers for HTML 5 • Apple drives HTML 5 by blocking flash • iAD Producer good start but only for iAd and not web apps per se • Tizen (formerly Meego), open source OS based on Linux with HTML5 API ( • First devices in 2012 , native development Kit soon • Driven by Intel and Nokia • Project Spartan by Facebook HTML5-based mobile application platform for 3rd party developers David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Post to wall bookmarks David An 19.10.2011
    • II. Success factors of mobile technologies Cross platform development So far only one tool (at least in the mobile gaming space)seems to be 1. affordable 2. easy to learn 3. able to port mobile 4. address iOS and Android sufficiently 5. also addresses Flash game porting → Android & iOS 6. Drawback: you cannot create your own API http://www.anscamobile.com/corona/ David An 19.10.2011
    • III. Some advice III. Some advice IMHO  When you develop a mobile game, dont clone  Bring apps quick to market  It sometimes makes sense to ask yourself – What – How – Why  Work with us www.playandroid.com/android- developers David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com IV. About Playandroid David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com What We are connecting independent Android game developers & publishers with Android gamers How Through our distribution platform consisting of social game-store, website and a review site Why To solve the mobile game discovery problem and give independent developers more distribution David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com The global Android market is HUGE. But you need $ to boost yourself into the top 100 of a category within Googles Android Market. This is Per App & Per Day! Do you have that money? David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com oursocial game-store.We aim to give users the We aim to allow game chance to download developers to makepremium Android games money outside ofwhich may have become Googles Androidlost in Google’s Android Market. Market. David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com Playandroid.com is a social game-store, meaning: • No registration is needed • Payment is completed via mobile phone • No SDK for the developer • Editorial selection • Users can see games that are installed on friends devices David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com We protect paid APK files via „Secure APK“ • During download data transmission is encrypted • Secure APK is encrypted while on device • After installation APK file is deleted • We are working on a DRM Server who checks the device in specific time intervals • No solution is 100% secure, but with the solution in place, we are state-of-the art David An 19.10.2011
    • IV. About Playandroid.com Any questions? Rumble Media GmbH Tel. +49-(0)721.201802-0 Fax: +49-(0)721.201802-29 info@playandroid.com www.playandroid.com Twitter @playandroid Kriegsstr. 5 76137 Karlsruhe Germany Office Location: http://tinyurl.com/rumblemedia Director: David An David An 19.10.2011