Fractional Work The Next Small Thing? London, 22 nd October 2003 5 th October 2009 The unit of work is no longer a whole job An opportunity . Not a threat.

What is Fractional Work? Research. There is none. Officially it doesn’t exist Temporary work research only tells part of the story OECD, ILO There’s a hidden GDP that is not accounted for anywhere

Research. There is none.

Officially it doesn’t exist

Temporary work research only tells part of the story

OECD, ILO

There’s a hidden GDP that is not accounted for anywhere

The Emergence of 21 st Century Labour Models: Fractional Work The perfect labour storm There is a tectonic shift taking place in the structure and nature of work The emergence of fractional, ‘on-demand’ models of labour Why is this important? Potential for full employment but comprised of multiple fractional sources of work Competitive with offshore pricing Big business in on the action Profound implications for education & training policy Government legislation is causing incalculable damage to its widespread adoption Legislation with unintentional consequences How to enable and accelerate fractional work

The perfect labour storm

There is a tectonic shift taking place in the structure and nature of work

The emergence of fractional, ‘on-demand’ models of labour

Why is this important?

Potential for full employment but comprised of multiple fractional sources of work

Competitive with offshore pricing

Big business in on the action

Profound implications for education & training policy

Government legislation is causing incalculable damage to its widespread adoption

Legislation with unintentional consequences

How to enable and accelerate fractional work

A Perfect Labour Storm Provenance Recent US research (cf Prof Alan Binder) estimates 30-40 million ‘high end’ white collar jobs could be lost within the next generation On that basis the comparable number in the UK could be as much as eight million Estimates of 16 million PhD students in Asia by 2015 0.5m PhDs in EU-27 In 2007 Indian IT services company receives 4m job applications in one year 2 billion people internet connected 31% of UK workforce retiring in the next 5 years In the US one-fifth of the country's large, established companies will lose 40 percent or more of their top level talent in the next five years Un-retirement trends & ‘grey ceilings’ The impact of the credit crisis on pension values In Japan, 30% of the adult work force is made up of temporary workers If current government policy prevails only 1 in 2 (yes, one in two) people will be employed in Japan in the year 2050 10 years of ‘steady state economy’ and zero percent interest rates

Provenance

Recent US research (cf Prof Alan Binder) estimates 30-40 million ‘high end’ white collar jobs could be lost within the next generation

On that basis the comparable number in the UK could be as much as eight million

Estimates of 16 million PhD students in Asia by 2015

0.5m PhDs in EU-27

In 2007 Indian IT services company receives 4m job applications in one year

2 billion people internet connected

31% of UK workforce retiring in the next 5 years

In the US one-fifth of the country's large, established companies will lose 40 percent or more of their top level talent in the next five years

Un-retirement trends & ‘grey ceilings’

The impact of the credit crisis on pension values

In Japan, 30% of the adult work force is made up of temporary workers

If current government policy prevails only 1 in 2 (yes, one in two) people will be employed in Japan in the year 2050

10 years of ‘steady state economy’ and zero percent interest rates

A Perfect Labour Storm Provenance The under-employment of older people is costing the UK 12-30 billion a year A lot of spare capacity in other UK home worker based networks Anecdotal evidence to suggest that SMEs are the biggest buyers of offshore labour Particularly in the creative industries The OECD reports that, from the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year to the end of 2010, 25 million more people will be unemployed in the developed world Temporary work on the rise Short-term work contracts have increased as a proportion of total employment; From 12.7 to 18.3 percent in the Netherlands, 8.5 to 14 percent in Italy 11 to 12.3 percent OECD-wide over the past decade UK currently 25% Fractional Work An Opportunity. Not a threat.

Provenance

The under-employment of older people is costing the UK 12-30 billion a year

A lot of spare capacity in other UK home worker based networks

Anecdotal evidence to suggest that SMEs are the biggest buyers of offshore labour

Particularly in the creative industries

The OECD reports that, from the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year to the end of 2010, 25 million more people will be unemployed in the developed world

Temporary work on the rise

Short-term work contracts have increased as a proportion of total employment;

From 12.7 to 18.3 percent in the Netherlands,

8.5 to 14 percent in Italy

11 to 12.3 percent OECD-wide over the past decade

UK currently 25%

Fractional Work

An Opportunity. Not a threat.

Sources of Fractional Work 100,000 instant access to 100,000 rated and tested professionals who offer technical, marketing and business expertise Revenues of $200m pa 7,500 distributed home-based agents fastest-growing company (Deloitte & Touche Fast 500) Summer 2009 announced the creation of 500 posts in NY & 100 in Wyoming (Estimated) that more than 1 million people in Canada and the US make at least part of their living buying and selling on Ebay

Sources of Fractional Work

Fractional Teams

Platforms

More examples

Legislation is ‘arresting’ its development IR35 A scheme to reclaim NI from freelance contractors Predicated on full time employee basis Just made it harder to operate as a freelancer Recent FOI request: IR35 generated just £1m in 10 years! Adding insult to injury 2007:The Chancellor of the Exchequer proposed new legislation limiting the ability of contractors to operate through the medium of limited companies and umbrella companies 160,000 contractors Majority of on low pay scales; security guards, nurses, cleaners, and supply teachers. Temporary Workers Aug 2009: The controversial Agency Workers' Directive confirmed by Gordon Brown would be implemented in UK law in the next few months. The EU-inspired Directive is aimed at protecting vulnerable agency workers by giving them similar rights to employees. Gives freelancers rights they do not want and which will make them less attractive to the market

IR35

A scheme to reclaim NI from freelance contractors

Predicated on full time employee basis

Just made it harder to operate as a freelancer

Recent FOI request: IR35 generated just £1m in 10 years!

Adding insult to injury

2007:The Chancellor of the Exchequer proposed new legislation limiting the ability of contractors to operate through the medium of limited companies and umbrella companies

160,000 contractors

Majority of on low pay scales; security guards, nurses, cleaners, and supply teachers.

Temporary Workers

Aug 2009: The controversial Agency Workers' Directive confirmed by Gordon Brown would be implemented in UK law in the next few months.

The EU-inspired Directive is aimed at protecting vulnerable agency workers by giving them similar rights to employees.

Gives freelancers rights they do not want and which will make them less attractive to the market

Conclusions The future of work The unit of work is no longer a whole job and the traditional career, as an institution, is in unavoidable decline. Unfortunately public policy is still based on the assumption that careers are the most desirable form of employment, and that they can be offered to more and more of us. Fractional work Credible alternative to job/no-job – a new Full Time Equivalent? Government role Is there a hidden GDP that is not accounted for anywhere? Don’t punish. Enable. Introduce new legislation that rewards people and companies for this mode of work. Tax it, fairly. Set standards – ‘new types of workplace’ Regulate these new types of ‘labour exchanges’ Place government (knowledge) work on these platforms Educate our children for change in the nature of work Opportunities Fractional workers have low carbon footprints Economically active Off the unemployment register Make use of spare capacity Economically inactive (disabled, incapacity benefit claimants)

The future of work

The unit of work is no longer a whole job and the traditional career, as an institution, is in unavoidable decline.

Unfortunately public policy is still based on the assumption that careers are the most desirable form of employment, and that they can be offered to more and more of us.

Fractional work

Credible alternative to job/no-job – a new Full Time Equivalent?

Government role

Is there a hidden GDP that is not accounted for anywhere?

Don’t punish. Enable.

Introduce new legislation that rewards people and companies for this mode of work. Tax it, fairly.

Set standards – ‘new types of workplace’

Regulate these new types of ‘labour exchanges’

Place government (knowledge) work on these platforms

Educate our children for change in the nature of work

Opportunities

Fractional workers have low carbon footprints

Economically active

Off the unemployment register

Make use of spare capacity

Economically inactive (disabled, incapacity benefit claimants)