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2012 Presidential Election - Republican Analysis

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Republican Strategist Ron Nehring examines the 2012 election and provides analysis and recommendations for Republican candidates and leaders.

Republican Strategist Ron Nehring examines the 2012 election and provides analysis and recommendations for Republican candidates and leaders.

Published in: News & Politics

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  • 1. The 2012 Campaign:Analysis andRecommendationsRon Nehring
  • 2. What Happened?
  • 3. Presidential ElectionObama wins by 2% in popular vote, 11% in Electoral College Obama Romney 49% 51% Every swing state won by Obama, except NC: Obama only lost two NH, VA, PA, FL, OH, MI, MN, IA, CO, NV states from 08: IN and NC.
  • 4. California: Presidential ElectionObama won by 2.6M votes, or 21.8% San Diego County Obama: 565,147 (51.89%) Romney: 501,234 (46.02%)
  • 5. United States SenateDemocrats expanded majority by 2 GOP Gain: Nebraska GOP Losses: Massachusetts Maine Indiana Net: -2GOP
  • 6. California: United States SenateFeinstein re-elected, but by smallest margin in 18 years San Diego County Feinstein: 565,198 (53.73%) Emken: 486,671 (46.27%)
  • 7. United States House of RepresentativesRepublican majority reduced by 5 Democrats Gained Four Republican Seats in CA Dan Lungren Mary Bono Mack Elton Gallegly (Open) Brian Bilbray
  • 8. GovernorsRepublicans gain one to reach 30 Republican Gain North Carolina
  • 9. California: State LegislatureDemocrats today hold supermajorities in both chambers Democrats Republicans Assembly 55 25 Lowest since 1977 Senate 27 11 2 vacancies Lowest since 1963 Last time Democrats 2/3rds majorities in both chambers: 1883. In the 1882 election, Republicans lost 27 Assembly seats, 15 Senate seats, Governor and every statewide office. Democrats gained 68 seats in the U.S. House. Republicans gained 1 in the Senate (chosen by legislatures).
  • 10. Strategic Factors
  • 11. National Mood Benefitted Obama/DemocratsPerception of economic improvement rose substantially Obama Bush 41 Carter Ford Election Day 52% 34% 37% 45% Job Approval
  • 12. Demographics: Gender GapObama lost men, but won by 12% among women“War on Women”strategy wascarefully chosen byDemocrats to drive awedge between theGOP and women.
  • 13. Demographics: LatinosRomney’s % of Latinos lowest since Bob Dole Republican Share of the Latino Vote 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 R% 35% 37% 30% 25% 21% 35% 40% 31% 27%
  • 14. Demographics: LatinosSpecial challenge in the Southwest
  • 15. Demographics: LatinosGrowth nationally
  • 16. 13.8% Latino69.1% Latino
  • 17. Demographics: LatinosLatino population growing in 57 California counties Latino Population (%) 60.0% 50.0% Latino % of Population 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 United States 6.4% 9.0% 12.5% 16.7% California 19.2% 25.8% 32.4% 38.1% San Diego 14.8% 20.4% 26.7% 32.5% Orange 14.8% 23.4% 30.8% 34.1% Los Angeles 27.6% 37.8% 44.6% 48.1% Fresno 29.3% 35.5% 40.0% 50.9%
  • 18. Demographics: AsiansCalifornia’s Asian community has almost tripled as a % oftotal population Asian Population (%) 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% Asian % of Population 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 United States 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 5.0% California 5.3% 9.6% 12.8% 13.6% San Diego 4.8% 7.9% 11.3% 11.4% Orange 4.5% 10.3% 15.4% 18.4% Los Angeles 5.8% 10.8% 13.5% 14.2% Fresno 2.9% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3%
  • 19. Low Turnout Overall, Especially in CA
  • 20. Low Turnout and Proposition 32An additional $64 million makes a difference California’s 64% turnout rate was lowest on record for a Presidential year. Average is 73%. • First time “paycheck protection” has ever appeared on a California general election ballot. • Additional millions labor spent on turnout.
  • 21. Critical Lessons for the Future
  • 22. 1. Sadly, The Reagan Era is Officially OverNew voters, demographics and politics Obama first President since Carter to not run at least in part on Reagan principles of government. Reagan Democrats became Republicans. Country increasingly diverse compared to 1980. More Latino, Asian.
  • 23. 2. Candidates matterMore than political parties Rep. Todd Akin Christine O’Donnell “Legitimate rape” “I’m not a witch.” Richard Mourdoch "even when life begins in that Sharron Angle horrible situation of rape, that is “I’m tired of people calling something that God intended to me wacky.” happen."
  • 24. 3. Caring and FairnessCritical qualities in a candidate • Center and center-left voters must see these qualities in a candidate. • Democrats have a playbook to take these qualities away from GOP candidates.
  • 25. 4. The World is Run by Those Who Show UpTurnout programs key in lower turnout elections • Voter contact programs are proven to directly impact voter behavior. • The more personal and credible the communication, the higher the impact. • Last minute money can buy television, but not turnout.
  • 26. 5. Rediscover Jack KempConservative Republican Congressman was before his time inadapting GOP message for urban voters Connecting ideas of entrepreneurship and free markets to help lift people from poverty. Enterprise zones to make urban areas more competitive. School choice, charter schools, and education reforms aimed at helping people in the inner city.
  • 27. 6. First, win in your own back yardRepublican elected officials need to start by winningdiverse groups in their own districtsGOP legislators, Members of Congress can make progress now by concentrating on winningnot only their own district, but the majority of the Latino, Asian, etc. vote in their district.
  • 28. 6. First, win in your own back yardRepublican elected officials need to win diversegroups in their own districtsDon’t just visit the border, go over it. Understand the issues and challenges facing thefamily and friends of those who have here who are still “back home.” Prensa Libre, newspaper in Guatemala, receives more hits per day from Los Angeles than Guatemala City.Understand the benefits U.S. policy can bring to Central and South America (expandedtrade, support for drug interdiction efforts, etc.).Concentrate on ethnic media in your district. Latino, Asian, etc. local newspapers, cabletelevision programs, news websites. Provide news in native languages.Consider then convey support for sensible pro-immigration policies. Options: Permanentguest worker program. Raising limits on legal immigration. Make it easier for people hereon student visas to stay and put their skills to work here. Simplify immigration paperwork.Blue card program?
  • 29. 13.8% Latino69.1% Latino
  • 30. 2014 OpportunitiesSix Year Itch - CyclesSenate: 20 Dem seats up, vs. 13 Rep seatsDemocrat overreach in California