Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR)Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT)Philippine Associa...
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pi...
 	  The	  modern	  history	  of	  Philippines-­‐China	  rela5ons	  is	  a	  tale	  of	  connec5ng	  and	  distancing,	  of...
 	  The	  ancient	  history	  of	  Philippines-­‐China	  rela5ons	  is	  a	  very	  long	  history	  of	  good	  neighborl...
• The	  Kingdom	  of	  Butuan	  was	  in	  contact	  with	  the	  Song	  dynasty	  of	  China	  between	  960	  and	  1279...
•  On	  17	  March	  1001,	  King	  Kiling	  of	  Butuan	  (a	  Mindanao	  province)	  organized	  the	  first	  tributary	...
•  In	  1417,	  Paduka	  Batara,	  the	  Sultan	  of	  Sulu,	  went	  to	  China	  for	  a	  tributary	  mission	  during	...
Ancient	  Chinese	  Map	  showing	  Philippine	  Islands	  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine...
•  1945-­‐1949	  	  	   Moment	  of	  Amity	  (AVer	  WW2)	  •  1949-­‐1974	  	  	   Era	  of	  HosYlity	  (During	  the	 ...
•  VISITS	  TO	  CHINA	  BY	  PHILIPPINE	  PRESIDENTS	  –  President	  Ferdinand	  E.	  Marcos:	  	  	  7	  June	  1975	  ...
State	  visit	  to	  China	  	  of	  President	  Benigno	  Aquino	  III	  1	  September	  2011	  •  Both	  countries	  agr...
• Philippines-­‐China	  RelaYons	  are	  comprehensive	  spanning	  diplomaYc,	  social,	  cultural,	  economic	  and	  mi...
• Then	  Chinese	  President	  Hu	  	  declared	  the	  2012	  and	  2013	  as	  	  the	  Philippines-­‐China	  Years	  of...
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pi...
•  Situa5on	  in	  the	  Scarborough	  Shoal	  •  RP	  Submission	  of	  WPS	  Claims	  to	  Interna5onal	  Tribunal	  •  ...
•  Scarborough	  Shoal	  Situa5on	  – EffecYvely	  taken	  over	  by	  China	  in	  May	  2012	  aVer	  the	  standoff	  – C...
•  RP	  Submission	  of	  WPS	  Claims	  to	  Interna5onal	  Tribunal	  – PH	  lost	  paYence	  of	  direct	  bilateral	  ...
•  Increasing	  Tensions	  in	  the	  2nd	  Thomas	  Shoal	  (Ayungin	  Shoal)	  – China	  thinks	  that	  PH	  is	  stren...
•  Uncertain5es	  on	  the	  Passage	  of	  the	  COC	  –  Vietnam	  and	  the	  Philippines	  want	  to	  double	  up	  t...
•  Mari5me	  na5onalism	  – Territorial	  disputes	  between	  the	  Philippines	  and	  China	  have	  triggered	  naYona...
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pi...
• Fate	  of	  the	  Code	  of	  Conduct	  in	  the	  South	  China	  Sea	  • Result	  of	  Interna5onal	  Arbitra5on	  • S...
•  Code	  of	  Conduct	  in	  the	  South	  China	  Sea	  – If	  passed,	  its	  departure	  from	  the	  DOC	  will	  not...
•  Code	  of	  Conduct	  in	  the	  South	  China	  Sea	  – If	  not	  passed,	  claimants	  are	  not	  prevented	  from	...
• Result	  of	  Interna5onal	  Arbitra5on	  – If	  PH	  wins	  the	  case	  • InternaYonal	  recogniYon	  of	  Philippine	...
• Result	  Interna5onal	  Arbitra5on	  – If	  PH	  loses	  the	  case,	  that’s	  the	  end	  of	  its	  mariYme	  claims	...
• Status	  of	  Scarborough	  Shoal	  – Good:	  	  PromoYon	  of	  open	  fishing	  acYviYes	  and	  coordinated	  mariYme	...
•  Overlapping	  fishing	  acYviYes	  and	  increasing	  mariYme	  patrols	  of	  parYes	  around	  the	  disputed	  waters...
•  The	  recent	  tension	  between	  the	  Philippines	  and	  Taiwan	  over	  the	  killing	  on	  9	  May	  2013	  of	 ...
•  China	  is	  the	  world’s	  number	  2	  largest	  economy.	  – In	  2040,	  the	  Chinese	  economy	  will	  reach	  ...
•  Economics	  can	  bring	  the	  Philippines	  and	  China	  closer	  together.	  •  But	  poliYcs	  over	  the	  issue	...
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pi...
Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions
Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions
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Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions

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Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future Directions

  1. 1. Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR)Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT)Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS)Center for Political and Democratic Reforms, Inc. (CPDRI)
  2. 2. CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  ROMMEL C. BANLAOIChairman of the Board and Executive DirectorPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism ResearchVice President, Philippine Association for Chinese Studies
  3. 3.    The  modern  history  of  Philippines-­‐China  rela5ons  is  a  tale  of  connec5ng  and  distancing,  of  love  and  hate,  of  amity  and  enmity,  admira5on  and  admoni5on,  and  of  hedging,  engaging,    balancing,  and  guessing.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  4. 4.    The  ancient  history  of  Philippines-­‐China  rela5ons  is  a  very  long  history  of  good  neighborliness,  harmony  and  mutual  respect.      CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  5. 5. • The  Kingdom  of  Butuan  was  in  contact  with  the  Song  dynasty  of  China  between  960  and  1279  AD.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  6. 6. •  On  17  March  1001,  King  Kiling  of  Butuan  (a  Mindanao  province)  organized  the  first  tributary  mission  to  China  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  7. 7. •  In  1417,  Paduka  Batara,  the  Sultan  of  Sulu,  went  to  China  for  a  tributary  mission  during  the  reign  of  Emperor  Yung  Lo  (Pinyin,  Yung  Le).  •  Between  1420-­‐1424,  exchanged  missions  between  China  and  Mindanao  occurred  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  8. 8. Ancient  Chinese  Map  showing  Philippine  Islands  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  9. 9. •  1945-­‐1949       Moment  of  Amity  (AVer  WW2)  •  1949-­‐1974       Era  of  HosYlity  (During  the  Cold  War)  •  1975-­‐1995       NormalizaYon  Period  (Comprehensive  RelaYons)  •  1995-­‐2000       Troubled  RelaYons  (in  the  Mischief  Reef)  •  2000-­‐2005       Rebuilding  and  Sustaining  Friendship               Enhancing  CooperaYon                                                             (Use  of  China’s  soV  power  and  charm  offensives)  •  2005-­‐2009       “Golden  Age”  for  Strategic  Partnership  •  2009-­‐2011       Turbulent  Moments  •  2012       Standoff  (in  the  Scarborough  Shoal)  •  2012-­‐2013       Years  of  Friendly  Exchanges?    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  10. 10. •  VISITS  TO  CHINA  BY  PHILIPPINE  PRESIDENTS  –  President  Ferdinand  E.  Marcos:      7  June  1975  –  President  Corazon  C.  Aquino:  14  April  1988  –  President  Fidel  V.  Ramos:  25  April  1993  –  President  Joseph  E.  Estrada:  16  May  2000  –  President  Gloria  Macapagal-­‐Arroyo:      •  29  October  2001  •   1-­‐3  September  2004  •   27  October-­‐2  November  2006  •  21  April  2007  •  5-­‐6  June  2007  •   1-­‐2  October    2007  •   30  March  -­‐1  April  2008  •  7-­‐10  August  2008  •  23-­‐27  October  2008  •  8-­‐9  June  2010  2005THE GOLDENAGE OFPHILIPPINES-CHINARELATIONS  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  11. 11. State  visit  to  China    of  President  Benigno  Aquino  III  1  September  2011  •  Both  countries  agreed  that  the  Joint  Ac5on  Plan  for  Strategic  Coopera5on  signed  by  the  two  sides  on  29  October  2009  will  conYnue  to  guide  cooperaYon  in  all  fields.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  12. 12. • Philippines-­‐China  RelaYons  are  comprehensive  spanning  diplomaYc,  social,  cultural,  economic  and  military  aspects  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  13. 13. • Then  Chinese  President  Hu    declared  the  2012  and  2013  as    the  Philippines-­‐China  Years  of  Friendly  Exchanges.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  14. 14. CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  15. 15. •  Situa5on  in  the  Scarborough  Shoal  •  RP  Submission  of  WPS  Claims  to  Interna5onal  Tribunal  •  Increasing  Tensions  in  the  2nd  Thomas  (Ayungin  Shoal)  •  Uncertain5es  on  the  passage  of  the  Code  of  Conduct  in  the  South  China  Sea  •  Mari5me  na5onalism  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  16. 16. •  Scarborough  Shoal  Situa5on  – EffecYvely  taken  over  by  China  in  May  2012  aVer  the  standoff  – China  fully  controls  now  all  fishing  acYviYes  in  the  area  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  17. 17. •  RP  Submission  of  WPS  Claims  to  Interna5onal  Tribunal  – PH  lost  paYence  of  direct  bilateral  talks  to  peacefully  seele  disputes  (1995-­‐2012)  – China  was  embarrassed  and  ignored  the  arbitraYon.  – PH  considered  the  arbitraYon  a  “moral  victory”.      – China  emphasized  the  need  for  direct  talks  to  seele  disputes  peacefully  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  18. 18. •  Increasing  Tensions  in  the  2nd  Thomas  Shoal  (Ayungin  Shoal)  – China  thinks  that  PH  is  strengthening  its  presence  in  the  shoal  – China  wants  the  grounded  ship  removed  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  19. 19. •  Uncertain5es  on  the  Passage  of  the  COC  –  Vietnam  and  the  Philippines  want  to  double  up  the  process  in  passing  the  COC  –  Malaysia  and  Brunei  approve  the  general  principle  of  having  a  COC  but  they  remain  quite  on  the  issue  –  Indonesia,  Singapore  and  Thailand  are  anxious  to  pass  the  COC  but  not  pushing  hard  for  it  –  Cambodia,  Myanmar  and  Laos  seem  to  be  disinterested  on  the  issue  of  the  COC    –  China  is  not  in  a  hurry  to  pass  the  COC  as  it  is  saYsfied  with  the  DOC.  It  wants  to  implement  first  the  DOC.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  20. 20. •  Mari5me  na5onalism  – Territorial  disputes  between  the  Philippines  and  China  have  triggered  naYonalist  reacYons  from  their  respecYve  ciYzens.  – Involvement  of  the    emoYonal  public  in  the  territorial  disputes  complicate  the  nature  of  the  already  complex  problem  in  the  South  China  Sea.    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  21. 21. CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  22. 22. • Fate  of  the  Code  of  Conduct  in  the  South  China  Sea  • Result  of  Interna5onal  Arbitra5on  • Status  of  the  Scarborough  Shoal  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  23. 23. •  Code  of  Conduct  in  the  South  China  Sea  – If  passed,  its  departure  from  the  DOC  will  not  be  far  as  the  current  draV  talks  about  generaliYes  and  does  not  specify  measures  to  account  possible  violators.  •  Though  it  will  be  legally  binding,  ASEAN  has  a  poor  track  record  in  enforcing  regional  rules.  – Thus,  bilateralism  maeers    strongly  in  enforcement.  •   PH  and  PRC  have  to  cul5vate  be`er  bilateral  rela5ons.  – COC  does  not  aim  to  seele  sovereignty  disputes.      •  It  aims  to  provide  rules  for  “good  manners  and  right  conduct”  at  sea  to  avoid  untoward  incidents  and  arm  situaYon  in  the  mariYme  domain  of  the  South  China  Sea.    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  24. 24. •  Code  of  Conduct  in  the  South  China  Sea  – If  not  passed,  claimants  are  not  prevented  from  pursuing  unilateral  acYons  that  can  open  the  Pandora’s  box  of  accidents  and  miscalculaYon  of  risks  – Unilateral  acYons  can  encourage  “arms  racing”  behavior  of  claimants  to  deter  one  another  from  intruding  in  their  claimed  mariYme  areas.  – Rule  of  para-­‐military  force  (if  not  convenYonal  force)  rather  than  rule  of  law  will  prevail  in  the  South  China  Sea  – Philippines-­‐China  security  rela5ons  will  be  in  the  constant  “guessing  game”,  if  not    in  the  perpetual  conflict.    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  25. 25. • Result  of  Interna5onal  Arbitra5on  – If  PH  wins  the  case  • InternaYonal  recogniYon  of  Philippine  mariYme  rights  will  have  profound  and  problemaYc  implicaYons  for  the  rest  of  the  claimants  (from  moral  victory  to  legal  victory).  • PH  sYll  needs  to  talk  to  China  bilaterally  for  enforcement.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  26. 26. • Result  Interna5onal  Arbitra5on  – If  PH  loses  the  case,  that’s  the  end  of  its  mariYme  claims  • Moral  victory  for  China?    • Nightmare  for  the  rest  of  the  claimants?  • Will  PH  remove  its  faciliYes  in  its  occupied  land  features?  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  27. 27. • Status  of  Scarborough  Shoal  – Good:    PromoYon  of  open  fishing  acYviYes  and  coordinated  mariYme  patrols  – Bad:    China  to  ground  ship  on  the  shoal  to  establish  a  more  permanent  physical  presence.    – PH  will  maintain  safe  distance  as  a  prevenYve  measure.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  28. 28. •  Overlapping  fishing  acYviYes  and  increasing  mariYme  patrols  of  parYes  around  the  disputed  waters  in  the  South  China  Sea  can  raise  the  possibility  of  accidental  mariYme  clash  that  can  lead  to  violent  incidents.    •  An  unintenYonal  accidental  clash  can  lead  to  unintended  armed  skirmishes  that  all  parYes  do  not  want  to  occur.    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  29. 29. •  The  recent  tension  between  the  Philippines  and  Taiwan  over  the  killing  on  9  May  2013  of  a  Taiwanese  fisherman  on  the  contested  water  demonstrates  the  risk  of  a  potenYal  violent  conflict  that  can  happen  in  the  mariYme  domain.      •  Involvement  of  the  public  in  the  can  complicate  the  situaYon.  CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  30. 30. •  China  is  the  world’s  number  2  largest  economy.  – In  2040,  the  Chinese  economy  will  reach  $123  trillion,  or  nearly  three  Ymes  the  economic  output  of  the  enYre  globe  in  2000.  •  The  Philippines  has  become  Asia’s  fastest  growing  economy  – GDP  grew  by  7.8%  during  the  first  quarter  of  2013  outpacing  China,  which  grew  by  7.7%.    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  31. 31. •  Economics  can  bring  the  Philippines  and  China  closer  together.  •  But  poliYcs  over  the  issue  of  the  South  China  Sea  is  tearing  both  countries  apart.  •  Can  we  just  allow  the  future  genera5on  solve  the  South  China  Sea  problem  to  enable  China  and  the  Philippines  to  work  together  now    in  other  fields?    CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  
  32. 32. CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIESPhilippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Researchwww.pipvtr.com  

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