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  • 1. Is IPTV.1 a waste of Internet bandwidth? Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko
  • 2. Is IPTV.1 a waste of Internet bandwidth?
    • YES
  • 3. Is IPTV.1 a waste of Internet bandwidth?
    • YES, but it doesn’t matter
      • waste enables innovation
      • winning feature of the Internet has always been flexibility, not low cost
  • 4. Conclusions from presentation deck at 2000 CITI conference:
    • TV will have little impact on Internet backbones
    • Internet will have a large impact on TV
    http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/tv.internet.pdf
  • 5. More precisely:
    • consumers change their habits slowly
    • Internet capacity and traffic are growing rapidly
    • magnetic storage capacity is growing rapidly
    • displays are improving slowly
    • local storage and replay (a la Napster) likely to dominate
    • streaming real time multimedia a minor factor
    • Internet delivery likely to facilitate evolution of TV (HDTV, interactive TV, ...)
  • 6. Misleading myth of “Internet time”:
    • Build it and they will come
  • 7. Misleading myth of “Internet time”:
    • Build it and they will come
    • Build it and they may come,
    • but always in their own sweet time
  • 8. Internet traffic per capita (as of mid-2005):
    • Australia 0.3 GB/month
    • United States 1.2
    • Japan 1.2
    • S. Korea 7
    • Hong Kong 9
    growth rates: usually about a doubling each year (but U.S. is now down to about 60% a year)
      • http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue3_10/coffman
  • 9. Current Internet costs too high for TV:
    • Internet transit prices $20-30 Mbps/month
    • but they are declining (and can use local distribution, ...)
    • already can afford a lot of experimentation
  • 10. Rates of change:
    • technology: fast
    • consumer habits: slow
    • industry dogmas: slowest
  • 11. Misleading dogma of streaming video:
    • file transfers much more natural
    • predicted long ago
    • faster-than-real-time file transfers predicted long ago
    • faster-than-real-time file transfers already dominate (P2P music in US, P2P video in Korea)
    • yet industry is still mesmerized by streaming video
    • Internet’s flexibility is allowing natural evolution to take place without the industry noticing or understanding what’s happening
  • 12. Faster-than-real-time video file transfers:
    • cater to human impatience
    • enable transfer to portable devices
    • enable far simpler networks
    AND ALREADY DOMINATE
  • 13. Conclusions:
    • IPTV.1 (as well as IPTV.2 as usually conceived) IS a waste of Internet bandwidth
    • waste enables innovation
    • flexibility of the Internet is enabling innovation that bypasses misleading industry dogmas
    • further data, arguments, and speculations at
    • http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko