Tracking the Internet into the 21 st  Century Vint Cerf June 2007
Internet  Evangelist  at Work
Internet -  Global Statistics (approx. 3.6 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2.5 B mobiles  and 1 Billion PCs [Comp...
#3 UCSB 940 The Original ARPANET Dec 1969 360 PDP 10 #2 SRI #4 UTAH #1 UCLA Sigma 7
The SRI Packet Radio Van
Packet Satellite Ground Station ETAM W. VA
First Three-Network Test of Internet November 22, 1977
Internet 1999
Internet Penetration Jan 2007 <ul><li>Asia  398.7 M </li></ul><ul><li>No. Amer.  233.2 M </li></ul><ul><li>Europe  314.8 M...
Technology Shapers <ul><li>Internet uses any communication service  (IP on everything!) </li></ul><ul><li>IP carries anyth...
IPv4 runout diagram (Geoff Huston) http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
Internet Traffic Statistics <ul><li>HTTP downloads include traditional text and images represent 45% of all Web traffic. <...
Socio-Economic Effects of Internet <ul><li>Information Consumers are becoming Producers  </li></ul><ul><li>Democratic acce...
Mobility and Mobiles <ul><li>2.5 Billion Mobiles and counting </li></ul><ul><li>Short Message Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Pa...
Internet-enabled Devices
Internet-enabled Devices <ul><li>Programmable – Java, Python, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><li>WebTV, Pe...
Internet Research Problems <ul><li>Security at all levels  </li></ul><ul><li>Internet “Erlang” formulas </li></ul><ul><li>...
Information management <ul><li>Semantic Networking </li></ul><ul><li>automatic tagging, improved indexing and relevance </...
New Application Challenges <ul><li>IPTV and effects of Symmetric Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>vPOD practices </li></ul><ul>...
Unsustainable Trends <ul><li>Increasing Carbon Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>% of world population that is poor </li></ul><u...
Sustainable Trends <ul><li>Increasing computing power, network capacity, storage capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in th...
InterPlaNetary Internet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003-2004 Missions to Mars <ul><li>Spirit  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>launched 6/10/2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>arrived Jan...
 
Mars Orbiters <ul><li>Mars Odyssey (NASA) </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Express (European Space Agency) </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Gl...
Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN) <ul><li>Planetary internets </li></ul><ul><li>Interplanetary Gateways  </li></...
 
 
 
 
<ul><li>End-to-end information flow across the solar system </li></ul><ul><li>Layered architecture for evolvability and in...
 
 
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Dr. Vinton G. Cerf

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  • Dr. Vinton G. Cerf

    1. 1. Tracking the Internet into the 21 st Century Vint Cerf June 2007
    2. 2. Internet Evangelist at Work
    3. 3. Internet - Global Statistics (approx. 3.6 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2.5 B mobiles and 1 Billion PCs [Comp. Industries Assoc.]) 22.5 Million Hosts (Bellcore June 1997) 50 Million Users (NUA Jul 1997) 433 Million Hosts (ISC Jan 2007) 1,114 Million Users (InternetWorldStats.com, Mar 19,2007)
    4. 4. #3 UCSB 940 The Original ARPANET Dec 1969 360 PDP 10 #2 SRI #4 UTAH #1 UCLA Sigma 7
    5. 5. The SRI Packet Radio Van
    6. 6. Packet Satellite Ground Station ETAM W. VA
    7. 7. First Three-Network Test of Internet November 22, 1977
    8. 8. Internet 1999
    9. 9. Internet Penetration Jan 2007 <ul><li>Asia 398.7 M </li></ul><ul><li>No. Amer. 233.2 M </li></ul><ul><li>Europe 314.8 M </li></ul><ul><li>Latin Am 96.4 M </li></ul><ul><li>Africa 33.3 M </li></ul><ul><li>Mid-east 19.4 M </li></ul><ul><li>Oceania/AU 18.4 M </li></ul><ul><li>Total 1,114 M </li></ul>Source http://www.internetworldstats.com/ No. AM Europe Asia Latin Am Africa Mid East Oceania 16.9% total penetration
    10. 10. Technology Shapers <ul><li>Internet uses any communication service (IP on everything!) </li></ul><ul><li>IP carries anything digital </li></ul><ul><li>End/End Principle (neutrality and user freedom) </li></ul><ul><li>Radio supplies mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Fiber/Cable/DSL supplies speed </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband (choice, symmetry) </li></ul><ul><li>IPv6 supplies address space </li></ul>
    11. 11. IPv4 runout diagram (Geoff Huston) http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
    12. 12. Internet Traffic Statistics <ul><li>HTTP downloads include traditional text and images represent 45% of all Web traffic. </li></ul><ul><li>Streaming video is 36% </li></ul><ul><li>Streaming audio is 5% </li></ul><ul><li>YouTube is 20% of all HTTP traffic and thus nearly 10% of all Internet traffic </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Ellacoya, June 2007 </li></ul>
    13. 13. Socio-Economic Effects of Internet <ul><li>Information Consumers are becoming Producers </li></ul><ul><li>Democratic access to the world’s information </li></ul><ul><li>“ Internet is for Everyone” – Internet Society </li></ul><ul><li>New educational alternatives and outlets </li></ul><ul><li>New business models (value add, low digital media costs) </li></ul><ul><li>Risk factors (spam, viruses/worms, social abuse, misinformation, fraud) </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia) </li></ul><ul><li>Localization (information, interfaces, cultural styles) </li></ul>
    14. 14. Mobility and Mobiles <ul><li>2.5 Billion Mobiles and counting </li></ul><ul><li>Short Message Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Payment systems </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative interfaces (challenges!) </li></ul><ul><li>Navigation systems </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>GPS, Galileo, Google Earth/Maps,… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Geo-location based services </li></ul>
    15. 15. Internet-enabled Devices
    16. 16. Internet-enabled Devices <ul><li>Programmable – Java, Python, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><li>WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board! </li></ul><ul><li>Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales) </li></ul><ul><li>Automobiles (Japan, Germany) </li></ul><ul><li>Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schr ö dinger’s wine bottle) </li></ul><ul><li>Internet-enabled socks (clothing) </li></ul><ul><li>Universal Remote Controls </li></ul>
    17. 17. Internet Research Problems <ul><li>Security at all levels </li></ul><ul><li>Internet “Erlang” formulas </li></ul><ul><li>QOS debates (smart routers?) </li></ul><ul><li>Internationalized Domain Names (ccTLDs & GTLDs) </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Algorithms </li></ul><ul><li>Presence (multi-level) </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility, persistence (processes, connections) </li></ul><ul><li>Multihoming </li></ul><ul><li>Multipath routing </li></ul><ul><li>Broadcast utilization </li></ul><ul><li>Mesh and Sensor networks </li></ul><ul><li>Scaling (of everything) – IPv6 </li></ul>
    18. 18. Information management <ul><li>Semantic Networking </li></ul><ul><li>automatic tagging, improved indexing and relevance </li></ul><ul><li>Modal indexing (video, audio, text, databases?) </li></ul><ul><li>Time and Location as organizing paradigms for data </li></ul><ul><li>Are there other semantic organizing principles? People? </li></ul><ul><li>What to do about Information decay (Bit Rot)? </li></ul><ul><li>is it like fighting tooth decay? </li></ul><ul><li>need to preserve bits, software, OS and hardware? </li></ul>
    19. 19. New Application Challenges <ul><li>IPTV and effects of Symmetric Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>vPOD practices </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic and interactive advertising </li></ul><ul><li>Merging of Virtual and Real Environments </li></ul><ul><li>linking of real instruments to virtual spaces </li></ul><ul><li>advertising in virtual environments </li></ul>
    20. 20. Unsustainable Trends <ul><li>Increasing Carbon Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>% of world population that is poor </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in GDP for Health Care </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing ecological diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing ocean fishing </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing number of nuclear weapons </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing retirement age </li></ul><ul><li>Persistant Oil production </li></ul><ul><li>US Trade Deficit </li></ul>
    21. 21. Sustainable Trends <ul><li>Increasing computing power, network capacity, storage capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in the cost of everything </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing globalization </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing labor mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing lifetime and productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing IQ </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing human enhancement (e.g. implants, augmentation) </li></ul>
    22. 22. InterPlaNetary Internet
    23. 30. 2003-2004 Missions to Mars <ul><li>Spirit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>launched 6/10/2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>arrived Jan 4, 2004 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Launched 7/7/2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>arrived Jan 25, 2004 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Meridiani Planum </li></ul></ul>
    24. 32. Mars Orbiters <ul><li>Mars Odyssey (NASA) </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Express (European Space Agency) </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Global Surveyor (NASA) [RIP Nov 2, 2006 – 10 yrs] </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (NASA) </li></ul><ul><li>Mars Odyssey relays 95% of all data from Spirit and Opportunity </li></ul>
    25. 33. Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN) <ul><li>Planetary internets </li></ul><ul><li>Interplanetary Gateways </li></ul><ul><li>Interplanetary Long-Haul Protocol </li></ul><ul><li>Delayed Binding of Identifiers </li></ul><ul><li>Email-like behavior </li></ul><ul><li>TDRSS and NASA in-space routing </li></ul><ul><li>Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!) </li></ul></ul></ul>
    26. 38. <ul><li>End-to-end information flow across the solar system </li></ul><ul><li>Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability </li></ul><ul><li>IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated communications and navigation services </li></ul>

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