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  1. 1. The European electronic industries: outlook and perspectives Sebastien Rospide Munich, November 2007 2006 - 2011 17 rue de l’Amiral Hamelin 75116 Paris - France +33 1 45 05 70 13, www.decision.eu Productronica 2007
  2. 2. > DECISION presentation Methodology <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Who we are and What we do <ul><li>DECISION is a consulting company, created in 1991, which is composed of 20 industrial experts, focused on : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment and components </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electrical and Energy industries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerospace / Defence industries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DECISION is also working with an international network of experts based in Europe, in North America and in Japan. </li></ul><ul><li>DECISION provides market surveys, economical forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>and strategic consulting for European and international </li></ul><ul><li>companies as well as professional and governmental associations. </li></ul><ul><li>In particular, DECISION provides every year 2 multi-client surveys : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World Electronic Industries - production and markets - 2006-2011, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Market for Passives and Interconnection Components Database, 2006-2011 </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. DECISION presentation > Methodology <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. A detailed approach <ul><li>Electronic equipment : approx. 100 categories of equipment under analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Audio & video (TV sets, STBs, VCRs, DVD…) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Home Appliances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data Processing (mainframe, large systems, servers, dedicated terminals, PCs, peripherals, ...) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telecom (mobile, base station, fixed infrastructure, other terminals...) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerospace and defense (airborne systems, space, communications, missiles, land and sea based systems...) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Automotive (powertrain, chassis, safety - security - information) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrial and Medical electronics (vehicle systems, power supply, power distribution, automation, medical electronics, instrumentation – measurement - test...) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>World coverage for production AND market (Europe, North America, Japan, China, Other Asia, Rest of the World) </li></ul>The World Electronic Industries 2006-2011
  6. 6. From the equipment to the component <ul><li>Component content analysis and forecast in the electronic equipment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PCBs; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connectors; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Keyboards and Switches; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MCM/Hybrids; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Magnetic components; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capacitors; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resistors; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quartz/filters; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Over 40 categories and sub-categories of components under the scope, consumption per application and region </li></ul><ul><li>The World market for Passive and </li></ul><ul><li>interconnection components (2006-2011) </li></ul>Passive and interconnection components
  7. 7. > Global outlook Migration and specialization Electronic products European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Asia represents half of World electronic production… …Europe and North America still major production areas The World Electronic Industries in 2007, production per application sector and region Source: DECISION Europe (Western+Eastern) 253 Bn€ (21.1%) North America 241 Bn€ (20.1%) Japan 156 Bn€ (13.0%) China 321 Bn€ (26.8%) Asia-Pacific (Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, India, Australia, ...) 178 Bn€ (14.9%) Rest of the World (Africa, Middle East, South America, CIS) 49 Bn€ (4.1%) Telecoms 308 Bn€ (25.7%) Data processing 286 Bn€ (23.9%) Audio video 183 Bn€ (15.3%) Industrial & medical 179 Bn€ (14.9%) Automotive 91 Bn€ (7.6%) Home appliances 75 Bn€ (6.3%) Aerospace & defence 76 Bn€ (6.4%) prov. average 2007 exchange rate: 1 euro = 1.3461 $ (source: ECB) Total equipment production = € 1,198 billion Hardware value is larger than the world 8th economy (Canada). Together with IT and professional software & services electronic ecosystem is larger than Japan (world 2nd economy) !
  9. 9. Towards new growth cycles ... Growth cycles of the electronics industry 1970-2011 Large systems “ Mini“ systems Defense Office PC Color TV VCR GSM DVD DSC, MP3 players Flat screens Auto Portable PC Internet Home PC Audio CD Military / States Enterprises Individuals DVB Source: DECISION CHINA ... INDIA Medical… At constant exchange rates
  10. 10. Different growth profiles for electronic production: the more developed countries Electronic equipment: production per zone, annual growth, 2006-2011 Source: DECISION 6.2% 6.2% 8.0% 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 4.8% 4.2% 4.9% 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 8.5% 2006 5.0% 2006 3.6% 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% At constant exchange rates 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 2006 World Europe North America
  11. 11. Different growth profiles for electronic production: the developing countries Electronic Equipment: production per zone, annual growth, 2006-2011 World Asia-Pacific (*) China Source: DECISION (*) Japan not included At constant exchange rates 6.2% 6.2% 8.0% 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 8.5% 2006 6.6% 7.9% 10.0% 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 9.6% 2006 9.9% 10.1% 13.7% 2007p 2008f 2006-2011f 16.5% 2006
  12. 12. Global outlook > Migration and specialization Electronic products European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Specialisation at work in the West Electronics industry, Average annual growth per application sector, 2006-2011 Source: DECISION World Europe 4.2% 4.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 7.6% 6.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 6.1% 6.7% 8.2% 4.8% Total Industrial & medical Aerospace & defense Telecoms Automotive Data processing Audio & video Home appliances Total Aerospace & defense Industrial & medical Audio & video Data processing Telecoms Automotive Home appliances
  14. 14. and globalization in the Far-East Electronics industry, Average annual growth per application sector, 2006-2011 Source: DECISION World China 4.2% 4.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 7.6% 6.2% 9.9% 19.7% 13.6% 10.1% 10.0% 9.5% 8.0% 7.8 Total Industrial & medical Aerospace & defense Telecoms Automotive Data processing Audio & video Home appliances Total Aerospace & defense Industrial & medical Audio & video Data processing Telecoms Automotive Home appliances
  15. 15. The world factory Chinese share of World electronic equipment production (in value) <ul><li>2007-2011 evolution : </li></ul><ul><li>strong focus on mass market products: 37% of world production in 2007, 41% in 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>some dependency in professional equipment: 17% of world production in 2007, 20% in 2011 </li></ul>Between 2000 and 2006, China doubled its share of world electronic production from 11% to 24% ! Source: DECISION 48% 41% STB 27% 70% 46% 42% 39% Chinese share of world production 2011 27% 71% 43% 37% 35% Chinese share of world production 2007 DSC DVD PC Mobile TV Equipment
  16. 16. Towards a new balance between market and production Comparative growth of production versus market, per region 2000-2011 Production Market Source: DECISION CAGR 2006-2011 CAGR 2000-2005
  17. 17. Global outlook Migration and specialization > Electronic products - mass market electronics - professional electronics - automotive electronics European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Mass market products : the Asian domination Mass market products : Regional production in 2007 Mass market products : Regional production growth 2006-2011 Source: DECISION Source: DECISION 7.2% 5.2% 8.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 5.4% World Europe North America Japan China Asia-Pac Rest of the World Asia-Pac North America China RoW Europe Japan World total production: € 620 billion in 2007
  19. 19. TV : the flat screen tsunami <ul><li>Facts and figures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World production : 210 million TV sets in 2007 to 235 in 2011. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flat screens from 33% to 80% in units. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In value, flat screen market is already larger than CRT and will be 9 times larger in 2011. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European share (production) is 10% in units with massive transition from legacy CRT technology to Flat screens: flat screens final assembly capacity is larger than previous tubes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World market is €90 billion in 2007, growing 5.7% in average </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trends and stakes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital set increase share, up to 90% in 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IPTV & HD capability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Larger flat panels: North America to become the first market before Europe in 2010 </li></ul></ul>European production in million units (2007) Production: Annual growth 2006-2011 in € Source: DECISION World Europe Source: DECISION
  20. 20. Mobile phones: 1.5 billion units in 2011 <ul><li>Facts and figures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 3 billion users in 2008 (2 billion in 2005) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World production : 1.14 billion units in 2007 to 1.5 billion in 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European share (production) is 19% in units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World market is €104 billion in 2007, 5.1% average growth from 2006 to 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trends and stakes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Replacement market to reach 80% in 2011 (60% in 2005) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3G, video, wireless connectivity, new services, Very High End sets are the most dynamic segment of the market (in value), see Apple strategy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ultra low cost handsets, only 3% of market in 2011, in value (16% in units) </li></ul></ul>Production: Annual growth 2006-2011 in € Source: DECISION World Europe European production in million units (2007) Source: DECISION
  21. 21. PC: the essential digital platform <ul><li>Facts and figures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World production : 270 million units in 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European production is 11% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>40% of World production in China </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World market is € 140 billion in 2007, growing 8% in average between 2006-2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trends and stakes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Laptop are continuing to develop fast, representing 40% of the unit market in 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>India from 1 to 5% of Asian PC production in 2011, still a minor actor despite massive investment programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low cost platforms to increase penetration in the less developed countries </li></ul></ul>Source: DECISION Production: Annual growth 2006-2011 in € Source: DECISION World Europe European production in million units (2007)
  22. 22. Global outlook Migration and specialization > Electronic products - mass market electronics - professional electronics - automotive electronics European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Professional markets Professional products : Regional production in 2007 Professional products : Regional production growth 2006-2011 Source: DECISION Source: DECISION 8.3% 9.1% 13.0% 4.7% 4.6% 6.5% 7.1% World Europe North America Japan China Asia-Pac Rest of the World China RoW Europe Japan Asia-Pac North America NB: automotive is presented separately (not included in above figures) World total production: € 489 billion in 2007 This represents the &quot;hardware&quot; output value, associated services and/or software are easily 3 times larger.
  24. 24. IT infrastructures (computer & telecom networks) <ul><li>European production in 2007 is € 51 billion representing 22% of World market (€ 233 billion) </li></ul><ul><li>European leaders in communication are completing their reorganisation after consolidation (Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson-Marconi, Nokia-Siemens) </li></ul><ul><li>Computer: still US-based technologies (IBM, HP, Intel, AMD, Microsoft, ...) and Asian production (TCL, Acer, BenQ, Lenovo, ....) (50% of output) </li></ul>World production in 2007 & share of European output (€bn) Source: DECISION Source: DECISION Annual production growth 2006-2011 Europe World 4,2% 7,0% 6.2% 3.5% 5.0% -2.5% 8.3% 7.2% 6.5% -1.8% Mainframe, large systems Servers & dedicated syst. and terminals Fixed infrastructure & network Base stations Total 36.9 9.1 30.9 141.5 Mainframe, large systems: Europe = 9% Servers & dedicated syst. and terminals: Europe = 12% Fixed infrastructure & network: Europe = 23% Base stations: Europe = 31%
  25. 25. Industrial and medical : a Western leadership <ul><li>With € 66 billion, European share is 37% of the world total production of € 179 billion in 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>Europeans are world #1 in the fields of automation, power and transportation with ABB, Alstom, Philips Medical, Siemens, Schneider, Invensys, ... They also have major market positions in medical or instrumentation while world #1 are Americans. </li></ul><ul><li>A US domination in Medical (60% of world production) with leaders such as GE, Guidant, Medtronic </li></ul><ul><li>Other competitors are Japanese (Mitsubishi, Hitachi, </li></ul><ul><li>Matsushita, ...) </li></ul><ul><li>No Chinese leader… for the moment? </li></ul>Annual production growth 2006-2011 Europe World World production in 2007 & share of European output (€bn) Source: DECISION Source: DECISION 8.2% 4.5% 16.0% 8.9% 3.3% 5.5% 8.2% 5.4% 7.6% 5.1% 7.6% 12.2% Trans- portation Power electronics Automation Medical Instru- mentation, measuring & test Total 44.3 29.2 6.8 18.2 80.2 Transport sys.: Europe = 48% Power electronics: Europe = 33% Automation: Europe = 44% Instrum. measur. & test: Europe = 32% Medical: Europe = 26%
  26. 26. Aerospace & defence : Battle over the Atlantic <ul><li>With € 25 billion, European share is 33% of the world total production of € 76 billion in 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>Market is dominated by US actors (Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, ... ) and challenged by Europeans (Airbus, EADS, BAE, Thales, ....) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- The US market remains in the hand of domestic firms ( USA = appr . 40% of the market), defence oriented </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Europe is now strong in civil markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging countries with active aerospace & defence strategies (China, Korea, India, ... ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia has also an important potential even if its production remains small (appr. € 700 million) </li></ul></ul>Annual production growth 2006-2011 Europe World World production in 2007 & share of European output (€bn) Source: DECISION Source: DECISION 6.7% 5.6% 8.3% 9.1% 5.2% 6.5% Aerospace Communications, land & sea based systems Total 53.4 22.3 Aerospace: Europe = 41% Communications, land & sea based systems: Europe = 31%
  27. 27. Global outlook Migration and specialisation > Electronic products - mass market electronics - professional electronics - automotive electronics European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Automotive electronics Automotive electronics: Regional production in 2007 Automotive electronics: Regional production growth 2006-2011 Source: DECISION Source: DECISION 9.4% 12.7% 19.7% 3.4% 1.9% 2.8% 6.2% World Europe North America Japan China Asia-Pac Rest of the World China RoW Europe Japan Asia-Pac North America World total production: € 91 billion in 2007
  29. 29. Towards a new acceleration ? 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rationalisation phase - optimised designs, cost reduction, most of the growth coming from entertainment equipment Design rupture driving automotive electronics - Hybrid propulsion, Drive by wire, Driving assistance and control Exponential growth - injection, ABS, ESP, engine control, power steering, etc. Source: DECISION Share of electronic equipment per car in Europe Source Siemens VDO
  30. 30. Global outlook Migration and specialization Electronic products > European position and perspectives <ul><li>Presentation & methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic equipment production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>global outlook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>migration & specialization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>electronic products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>European position and perspectives </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. European strength Share of electronic equipment production in Europe, 2007 Source: DECISION Transportation Automation Operator Carrier equipment Automotive Power electronics Aerospace & defense Instrum., measuring & test Base stations Medical Home appliances Total electronic Mobile phones Fixed terminals Enterprise network & comm. Servers & dedicated syst. & terminals Set top boxes (STB) Peripherals CRT TVs PCs Mainframe, large systems Flat TVs DVD home readers & recorders Audio & video misc. (Hi-Fi, MP3, DSC, …) Game console Over total average (21%) % Europe % North America % rest % China
  32. 32. Toward a greater geographical bipolarisation? A large impact on the supply chain Agile Rigid <ul><li>Power savings </li></ul><ul><li>PC </li></ul><ul><li>Telecom </li></ul><ul><li>Very dynamic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Linear growth </li></ul><ul><li>Medical health care </li></ul><ul><li>High value perceived by customer </li></ul><ul><li>Long life cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple interactions in the value chain </li></ul><ul><li>New applications </li></ul>Mature economies <ul><li>Low cost « boxes » </li></ul><ul><li>Audio - Video </li></ul><ul><li>Very short product life cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Poor value perceived by customer </li></ul><ul><li>« commodities » </li></ul>Emerging countries
  33. 33. New opportunities emerging in mature economies ... Personal security Infrastructure security Protection Tracking Paramedical & medical applications Individual care Individual well-being Living place Industry Transports Power savings S e r v i c e O r i e n t e d Home
  34. 34. <ul><li>Note to the reader : </li></ul><ul><li>All the figures and forecasts for electronic equipment production and market as well as passive component consumption are available in deeper details in DECISION’s 2 multiclient surveys: </li></ul><ul><li>The World Electronic Industries 2006-2011 </li></ul><ul><li>The World Passive and Interconnection Component Database 2006-2011 </li></ul><ul><li>For more information about these 2 products please contact us or visit our website www.decision.eu </li></ul><ul><li>DECISION </li></ul><ul><li>17 rue de l’Amiral Hamelin, 75116 Paris - France </li></ul><ul><li>+33 1 45 05 70 13 </li></ul>

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