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Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies 110206
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Competitive Access Technologies 110206

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  • 1. Competitive Access Technologies SCTE November 2, 2006 David R. Kozischek Manager Strategic Technology Corning Cable Systems
  • 2.
    • Purpose
    • Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
      • Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth
        • Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth
        • Data…Needs versus Wants
        • Demographic Change
        • Bandwidth per Application
        • Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth
        • Video Compression
        • Increase in the number of digital “streams”
    • Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)
      • HFC
      • ADSL & VDSL
      • PON
    • Future of Cable, DSL and FTTH
    • Verizon Deployment Update
    Competitive Access Technologies Outline
  • 3.
    • What this Presentation Provides
      • Analysis of the technical limitations of different access solutions to deliver Voice, Video and Data services to residential customers
    • What this Presentation DOES NOT Provide
      • Economic and/or financial analysis of the different access solutions
    Competitive Access Technologies Purpose
  • 4.
    • Purpose
    • Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
      • Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth
        • Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth
        • Data…Needs versus Wants
        • Demographic Change
        • Bandwidth per Application
        • Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth
        • Video Compression
        • Increase in the number of digital “streams”
    • Technology Analysis
      • HFC
      • ADSL & VDSL
      • PON
    Competitive Access Technologies Outline
  • 5. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Koz Theorem… Residential customers will want the same bandwidth at home that they get at work
    Power Users
  • 6. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • For Data, its not what the Customers need…. It’s what they WANT
    10 20 5
  • 7. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Demographic Change
    Percent Using Broadband 60% 60% 55% 50% 49% 45% 34%
  • 8. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Application change
      • Files get bigger so speed per application needs to increase
    In 1993 the Average File size was 22 kb Note: This shows a Shift in demographics. This Analysis was done at UC-Berkley. These are the type of files the Next-Generation will be Uploading and downloading
  • 9. Bandwidth Demand – Today and Tomorrow Symmetric traffic load when bandwidth is available 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 10:00 AM 4:00 PM 10:00 PM 4:00 AM 10:00 AM Upload – Avg. 0.589 GB Download – Avg. 0.584 GB Total GB transferred each hour (Feb 1 / 2 , 2005) 10 20 30 40 50 60 12/16/04 12/23/04 12/30/04 1/6/05 1/13/05 Total GB transferred each day Courtesy of Paxio Inc. In 1993 the Average File size was 22 kb Source: eMarketer, October 2003 Upload – Avg. 16.6 GB Download – Avg. 20.4 GB 0.044 Image .jpeg 25 15 Audio .wav 9 20 Video .mpeg 5 7.2 Software .exe 4 4 Audio .mp3 2 1730 Video .avi 1 Avg. Size (in MB) Application Type Rank Top 25 File Extensions
  • 10. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Application change
      • Files get bigger so speed per application needs to increase…Example-Digital Cameras
  • 11. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Video Compression lowers bandwidth requirements
    • MPEG-2
    • MPEG-4
    • H.263
    • H.264/AVC
    • Window Media 9 Series Video Codec
    1080p will require approx 16Mbps
  • 12. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Video does not Stop with HDTV
  • 13. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
    • Increase in Digital “Streams”
      • Personal video recorders will impact residential bandwidth by increasing the number of digital streams
  • 14. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
    • Number and Type of Digital Streams Increase
      • PVR’s and Pic-in-Pic will increase bandwidth Requirements
      • HDTV will increase bandwidth requirements
    Power Users
  • 15. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
    • Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video
      • Avg values
    HSD BW Demand Grows at 42% CAGR
  • 16. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
    • Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video
      • Max values for the “Power User”
    HSD BW Demand Grows at 60% CAGR
  • 17. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
    • Number of Video Streams
    Power users will start to separate from Avg user in 2008
  • 18. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video
      • Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-2012
  • 19. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video
      • Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-2012
  • 20. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-IP & RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • Bandwidth Requirements-Data, Voice and Video
      • Bandwidth Requirements are Driven by Delivery Platform
        • Telco IPTV over Twisted Pair
        • CATV MSO RF Video over HFC
    xx% of Subs that require > 25 Mbps Note: From Technologies Futures Inc. 2005, Fisher-Pry Substitution model. 2% 20% 60%
  • 21. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
    • Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video
      • Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-2012
    CCS SPBD Modeling CCS SPBD Modeling Power Users
  • 22. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
    • What Does it Mean?
      • Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive Weapon
      • Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”
    DSL Cable FTTH
  • 23. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
    • What Does it Mean?
      • Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive Weapon
      • Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”
    DSL Cable FTTH
  • 24. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
    • Bandwidth Curve Extrapolation
  • 25. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
    • Drivers for Increased Bandwidth
      • “ The 1 and 2 Min Drills”
    10 Mbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for most of today’s Applications >60Mbps will be needed for < 1 Min Downloads for most of today’s Applications
  • 26. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
    • Drivers for Increased Bandwidth
      • “ The 1 and 2 Min Drills”
    >1 Gbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for tomorrows Applications 10 Gbps will be needed for < 1 Min Downloads for tomorrows Applications
  • 27.
    • Purpose
    • Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
      • Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth
        • Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth
        • Data…Needs versus Wants
        • Demographic Change
        • Bandwidth per Application
        • Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth
        • Video Compression
        • Increase in the number of digital “streams”
    • Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)
      • HFC
      • ADSL & VDSL
      • PON
    Competitive Access Technologies Outline
  • 28. Technology Analysis
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 29.
    • Increase in Downstream Channel Allocation
      • Digital Services require Spectrum
        • Data
        • Standard Digital TV/High Definition TV
        • VOD
    Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis) 6MHz Data 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz Increase in new service penetration will lead to allocation of more downstream channels Data SDTV HDTV VoD 5 MHz 860 MHz 54 MHz 550 MHz 64 QAM=10 SDTV CH 256 QAM=12-15 SDTV CH 64 QAM=3 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH 256 QAM=5 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH 256 QAM= 2 HDTV CH VOD 10 Streams
  • 30.
    • DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0
      • Residential Bandwidth is a function of Homes per Node
    Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
  • 31.
    • DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0
      • Residential Bandwidth requirements vs Cable Capabilities
      • For HFC you need to look at Data Delivery… Video can be handled by QAM
    Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis) DOCSIS 2.0 can support Power Users Residential BW Requirements Out to 2010
  • 32.
    • DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0
      • Residential Bandwidth Requirements vs Cable Capabilities
      • For HFC you need to look at Data Delivery… Video can be Handled by QAM
    Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis) DOCSIS 2.0 can support Power Users Residential BW Requirements Out to 2010 DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 500 HHP/Node DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node DOCSIS 3.0 @ 100 HHP/Node
  • 33.
    • DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0
      • Residential Bandwidth Requirements vs Cable Capabilities
      • For HFC you need to look at Data Delivery… Video can be Handled by QAM
    Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis) DOCSIS 2.0 can support Power Users Residential BW Requirements Out to 2010 DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 500 HHP/Node DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node DOCSIS 3.0 @ 100 HHP/Node
  • 34. Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
    • DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0
      • Keep RF Video
    In 2007 HFC networks will need to be <150 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0…Average today is 400 H/N In 2010 HFC networks will need to be <50 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0 and < 200 for DOCSIS 3.0 Power Users
  • 35. Technology Analysis
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
    • WiMax
    • BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
  • 36. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
    • Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line
      • Copper Solution
    ADSL MUX Local Loop Services Data Voice ADSL modem OC-3, OC-12 POTS Splitter
  • 37. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
    • PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams
    Note: These Loop Lengths are the MAX distance you can deploy and still be able to deliver the Max Data Rate
  • 38. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
    • PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams
    1000 ft Loops: VDSL and VDSL2 Keep up with BW Demand until 2009 Loop Length (ft) 3000 ft Loops: VDSL does not keep up with BW demand after 2008
  • 39. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
    • PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be Digital Bit Streams
      • VDSL at 3000 Feet is not Enough Bandwidth
    VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop
  • 40. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
    • PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be Digital Bit Streams
      • VDSL at 3000 Feet is not Enough Bandwidth
    VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop
  • 41. Technology Analysis (Downstream)
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 42. Capabilities PON
    • B-PON (Today) G-PON (Tomorrow
    • Full Service Access Network (FSAN)
    • ATM Network
    • Split Ratio up to 32 for B-PON
    • Split Ratio up to 128 for G-PON
    Network Line Rates
  • 43. Capabilities PON w RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • PON Networks Migration
      • Data is handled by ATM protocol
      • Video is RF
    BPON @ 622 Mbps GPON @ 1.244 Gbps GPON @ 2.488 Gbps
  • 44. Capabilities PON w/ IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • PON Networks Migration
      • Data is handled by ATM protocol
      • Video is IP
  • 45. Capabilities PON w IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • PON Network Migration
      • IP Video is Easily Migrated into the Network
      • FTTH will Migrate to 2.4Gbps PONs….They will “Bypass” 1.2Gbps PONs
    2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split BPON @ 1x32 Split 1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
  • 46. Capabilities PON w IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
    • PON Network Migration
      • IP Video is Easily Migrated into the Network
      • FTTH will Migrate to 2.4Gbps PONs….They will “Bypass” 1.2Gbps PONs
    BPON @ 1x32 Split 1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split 2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
  • 47. Technology Analysis (Upstream)
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 48. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
  • 49. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
    • What Does it Mean?
      • Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive Weapon
    DSL Cable FTTH
  • 50. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
    • What Does it Mean?
      • New Value-added Services are Enabled by High Upstream Bandwidth
    To Back up a 60 GB hard drive, with a 1 Mbps Upstream bandwidth would take 7 DAYS …You Need at least 50Mbps to offer this Service DSL Cable FTTH
  • 51. Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
  • 52. Technology Analysis (Upstream)
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 53. Technology Analysis (Upstream Analysis)
    • HFC
      • No Bonding
    Note: DOCSIS can support Upstream BW out to 2010 at 50 HHP/Node
  • 54. Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Upstream Analysis) RF DOCSIS 1.0 @ 500HHP/Node DOCSIS 2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node DOCSIS 3.0 @ 50 HHP/Node
  • 55. Capabilities CATV HFC Network (Upstream Analysis) DOCSIS 3.0 @ 50 HHP/Node DOCSIS 2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node DOCSIS 1.0 @ 500HHP/Node
  • 56. Technology Analysis (Upstream)
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 57. Technology Analysis (Upstream Analysis)
    • DSL
      • No Bonding
    Note: 3000 ft Loops can support UpBW out to 2008 with VDSL2 Need 500 ft Loops to support UpBW out to 2010 with VDSL2
  • 58. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Upstream Analysis)
    • DSL
      • No Bonding
    Note: 3000 ft Loops can support UpBW out to 2007 with VDSL Need 500 ft Loops to support UpBW out to 2010 with VDSL5 VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop
  • 59. Capabilities ADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Upstream Analysis)
    • DSL
      • No Bonding
    Note: 3000 ft Loops can support UpBW out to 2007 with VDSL Need 500 ft Loops to support UpBW out to 2010 with VDSL5 VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop
  • 60. Technology Analysis (Upstream)
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
  • 61. Technology Analysis (Upstream Analysis)
    • PON
      • 1 x32 Splits
    BPON GPON 1.2G GPON 2.4G Note: PON…Build Once Plenty of UpBW for High Symmetrical Service Note: Telco’s will Probably move to 2.4Gpon from BPON
  • 62. Capabilities PON w IP Video (Upstream Analysis)
    • PON
      • 1 x32 Splits
    Note: PON…Build Once Plenty of UpBW for High Symmetrical Service Note: Telco’s will Probably move to 2.4Gpon from BPON BPON @ 1x32 Split 1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split 2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
  • 63. Capabilities PON w IP Video (Upstream Analysis)
    • PON
      • 1 x32 Splits
    Note: PON…Build Once Plenty of UpBW for High Symmetrical Service Note: Telco’s will Probably move to 2.4Gpon from BPON BPON @ 1x32 Split 1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split 2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
  • 64. Technology Analysis (Summary)
    • Who Wins?
      • Depends on “Who” you Compete With and “How” you Compete…Note: Service and Quality are “Table Stakes”
    The MSO can “EASILY” Match this with Little Investment The MSO will have to Invest to Match
    • Have Robust HDTV Offering… This will
      • Be difficult with the current Platform
    • High Speed Data…Need
    • 10/2 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008
    • High Speed Data… Need
    • 25/25 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010
    • Telco w/FTTN Vs MSO
    • Telco Needs to…
    • Have Robust HDTV Offering
    • High Speed Data…Need
    • 50/50 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008
    • High Speed Data… Need
    • 100/100 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010
    • Telco w/FTTP Vs MSO
    • Telco Needs to…
  • 65. Technology Analysis
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
    • WiMax
    • BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
  • 66. Capabilities WiMax
    • Line of Sight and Non-Line of Sight
    This could be a Fiber Link This is typically a Fiber Link
  • 67. Capabilities WiMax This is Shared BW
  • 68. Capabilities WiMax
    • WiMax Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams
        • So WiMax needs to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow
        • WiMax can only achieve 1.2Mbps at very low penetration rates
    Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling
  • 69. Technology Analysis
    • HFC
    • ADSL & VDSL
    • PON
    • WiMax
    • BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
  • 70. Capabilities BPL
    • BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
    Injects a low Frequency signal at the last Power Station before the house. Data rate at this point is 20-40Mbps The distribution is a “bus” so the BW is Shared. The voltage is 3-12kv At the house the Transformer at the pole has to be bypassed Some use wireless at the pole, some will re-inject the signal onto the 240v drop Connections to computers are made at any elec outlet A 50MVA Sub can service approx 1200 homes
  • 71. Capabilities BPL
  • 72. Capabilities BPL
    • BPL Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
      • Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams
        • BPL’s need to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow
        • Most BPL networks can support about 500kbps to the subscriber
    BPL Can NOT support Today OR Tomorrow BW requirements Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling
  • 73. What does all this Bandwidth Mean? The Future of Cable, DSL & FTTH (US)
  • 74.
    • “ Universe” Total US Households
    The Future of FTTH (US) Source: Futures Technologies Inc, CCS SPBD
  • 75.
    • Cable Modem Adoption as a Percentage of US HH
    The Future of FTTH (US) History can Predict the Future b=.145 Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
  • 76.
    • DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH
    The Future of FTTH (US) History can Predict the Future b=.154 Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
  • 77.
    • CM & DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH
      • Without FTTH as a Substitution
    The Future of FTTH (US) History can Predict the Future Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
  • 78.
    • FTTH Adoption as a Percentage of US HH (Four Futures)
        • 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis
        • 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT
        • 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO
        • 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive
    The Future of FTTH (US) History can Predict the Future b=.152 Source: RVA, CCS SPBD
  • 79.
    • FTTH Substitution for CM and DSL
        • 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis
        • 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT
        • 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO
        • 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive
    The Future of FTTH (US) History can Predict the Future Source: RVA, CCS SPBD
  • 80. What is going on with FTTH? The Competition (US)
  • 81. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 82. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 83. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 84. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 85. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 86. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 87. What is going on with FTTH (US) The Competition
  • 88. Thank you

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