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Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch: what to do when you don't have a model available - a case study in cycling

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External seminar given at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, on 21 November 2013. …

External seminar given at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, on 21 November 2013.

Presented by Claire Sheffield from Transport for London (TfL) who leads TfL’s behavioural change unit.

Presentation includes the creative use of secondary data, collecting primary data using SP/SI and developing your own bespoke models, with a strong practical focus.

Published in: Education, Sports, Technology

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  • 1. Building an evidence base (almost) from scratch: what to do when you don't have a model available Leeds University seminar 21st November 2013
  • 2. Introduction – who am I? • Policy Analysis Manager in Transport for London’s Group Planning department. • Manage a small team responsible for analysing the impact of emerging policies, specialising in travel behaviour change. • Particularly specialise in looking at cross-cutting policy interventions and ‘minor’ or unusual modes, such as cycling. • See our publications at: www.tfl.gov.uk/travelinlondon TfL Planning 2
  • 3. The Mayor’s vision for cycling is that 5% of all journeys will be made by bike in 2026, around 400% more than in 2001 “I’m determined to turn London into a cyclised city – a civilised city where people can ride their bikes safely and easily in a pleasant environment ... Put simply, it’s the best way to get around our city.” Boris Johnson, Cycling Revolution London 2010 A comparison of growth in cycling to date and an estimated growth trajectory to meet the Mayor’s target in 2026. 1.6 2026 Target: 1.5 million cycle journeys 1.4 1.2 1 2011: on track to meet target, 570k cycle journeys 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Projected cycle stages 2001 Baseline: 320k cycle journeys 0 TfL Planning 3 Actual cycle stages
  • 4. TfL has a suite of strategic transport models available to inform transport policy development LTS London-wide forecasts of transport demand by mode Highway Assignment Models Railplan Five sub-regional traffic models – congestion, speeds Public transport mode choice & assignment crowding TfL Planning 4
  • 5. So – what do we need to know in order to deliver the Mayor’s Vision for cycling? 1. What is the potential for growth in cycle travel in London? 2. How effective are different interventions at delivering growth in cycling? 3. What would be the wider impact of growth in cycle travel on travel by other modes, and on aspects of life in London? Creative use of secondary data TfL Planning Collecting primary SP and RP data 5 Developing bespoke spreadsheet models
  • 6. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 6
  • 7. 4.3m trips per day are potentially cyclable, 23% of trips by all modes and 35% of trips by motorised modes Analysis based on the London Travel Demand Survey (2005-8), identifies trips currently made by motorised modes which could potentially be cycled, based on the characteristics of the person and trip Trips were excluded as not potentially cyclable based on: • Carrying heavy or bulky load • Trip length is more than 8km • Would take at least 20% more time by bicycle • Person aged under 5 or over 64 • Trip made overnight (between 8pm and 6am) • Person has a disability affecting their travel • Trip made by van, dial-a-ride, plane or boat IMPORTANT NOTE: There is much we don’t know about the trips and people making them – some could not, in fact, be cycled, whilst some of those trips excluded could be cycled. TfL Planning 7
  • 8. Analysis can inform policy making and help target resources by describing the nature of potentially cyclable trips… Potentially cyclable trips... • • ... by current mode Two thirds of potentially cyclable trips are currently made by car 40% of potentially cyclable trips are made for shopping and leisure purposes and a quarter for work • 8 in ten potentially cyclable trips are under 5km and would take less than 20 minutes for most people to cycle ...by trip distance ...by journey purpose TfL Planning 8
  • 9. ... and identifying where potentially cyclable trips are being made 23% of trips originated in the 48 International, Metropolitan and Major town centres – investment in infrastructure can be effective here Potentially cyclable trips by trip origin 55% of trips are highly dispersed across outer London – suggesting that measures that can reach a wide audience will deliver best value for money Spotlight on Croydon: 119,000 potentially cyclable trips per day 70% currently made by car Significant population and employment growth planned TfL Planning Note that sample sizes will be very small for each ‘square’ so this map should be understood thematically rather than analysed in close detail. 9
  • 10. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 10
  • 11. Cycle Market Segmentation shows the propensity of Londoners to cycle now & how amenable they are to cycling in future Segment % Londoners Description Propensity to cycle Urban living Young, well educated, reasonably well-off and usually live in town/city centre. Many choose to live without a car. 23% 140 Young couples and families Young, with relatively low car ownership and young children. Often tight finances, ethnic background may present a barrier to cycling. 15% 113 High earning professional Well educated, affluent, often working in multinationals. Tend to use personal rather than public transport. 11% 106 Suburban lifestyle Average income, heavily reliant on car and living in suburbia. Cycling for leisure is as likely as cycling for purpose. 17% 102 Hard pressed families Difficult family finances, and often living in inner city flats and tower blocks. Ethnic background may present a barrier to cycling. 21% 85 Manual trades Mainly white with high car ownership, this segment is unlikely to cycle with generally negative attitudes towards cycling. 5% 42 Comfortable maturity Older and retired people, reasonably well off, living in suburban areas - some potential for off-road leisure cycling. 8% 30 Most likely TfL Planning 11 Least likely
  • 12. The Market Segmentation shows us where those with the greatest propensity to cycle live (red is high) Propensity to cycle by home postcode For areas without a high concentration of potentially cyclable trips, analysis of where potentially cyclable trip makers with a high or moderate propensity to cycle live, work and study would help target interventions Note: White zones are not residential so are not coded eg: parks, industrial locations TfL Planning 12
  • 13. Combined with the analysis of cycling potential, we can identify the trips made by those most amenable to cycling 68% of potentially cyclable trips are made by people in the ‘Urban living’, ‘High-earning professionals’, ‘Young families and couples’ and ‘Suburban lifestyle’ segments – shown here by trip origin. They offer the best potential for cycling. High density in central London – especially K&C, Westminster, H&F and Camden Pockets in outer London – particularly in Ealing, Stratford and in many parts of South London TfL Planning Note that sample sizes will be very small for each ‘square’ so this map should be understood thematically rather than analysed in close detail. 13
  • 14. Cycling potential can be assessed for each segment: the Urban Living segment are the prime target for cycling Live in city & town centres Young Well educated Own bikes Travel more than average Positive about cycling 900,000 trips Don’t have a car 3 in 10 potentially cyclable trips are for work purposes 33% potentially cyclable trips made by bus & 17% by tube or rail 24% potentially cyclable trips are to, from or within central London Typically travelling on busy radial routes in peak periods, so potential crowding benefit, freeing up space for other users TfL Planning 14
  • 15. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 15
  • 16. Cycling behaviour survey conducted to explore current and potential cycling behaviour and responses to interventions Cycling Behaviour Survey: quantitative survey conducted online in 2010 with London residents aged 18+; around 3,500 responses . Survey contents included: • Current travel behaviour patterns • Stated intentions in terms of future cycling behaviour • Three stated preference exercises testing likelihood of cycling a selected trip and testing preferred cycling environment • Attitudes to cycling and cyclists • Demographics TfL Planning 16
  • 17. Londoners cycle for fitness, enjoyment, and to save money; conversely, safety and fear are the biggest barriers to cycling Why cycle? Why not cycle? Cyclists were asked why they cycle: All were asked why not cycle (more): • Fitness and exercise – 53% • Safety, danger – 22% • For enjoyment, fun, to relax – 28% • Personal reasons (eg: health or fitness) – 14% • To save money – 23% • Traffic, other road users – 10% • To save time, it’s quick – 11% • Do not own a bike – 8% • Convenience – 9% • Weather – 6% • To get where I need to go – 7% • Lack of facilities – 6% • For environment reasons – 7% • Can’t ride a bike – 5% TfL Planning 17
  • 18. All respondents were asked to select a regular trip they do not currently cycle – 18% would cycle this trip Respondents were asked to select a trip they make regularly. Selected trips were designed to be ‘potentially cyclable’, although the respondent themselves did not necessarily say that they could be cycled. Selected trips were: A From home... B Around 20 minutes long To a destination By car or public transport ... And of these, 18% of respondents could definitely and 24% could possibly imagine a situation where they might cycle all the way for this journey; 58% would not cycle TfL Planning 18
  • 19. The most significant barrier to cycling the selected trip is safety, with over ¾ of respondents deterred to some extent Discourages at all Discourages at all 77% Safety 77% Safety 69% Need to carry items 69% Need to carry items 59% Time itittakes 59% Time takes 57% Distance too far 57% Distance too far 56% Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair 56% Makes me messy/dirty/messes up my hair 54% Security of bike at destination 54% Security of bike at destination 54% Don't own a bike 54% Don't own a bike 53% Need to wear smart clothes to my destination 53% Need to wear smart clothes to my destination 51% Personal safety from attack 51% Personal safety from attack 50% No/poor cycle parking at destination 50% No/poor cycle parking at destination 49% Too physical/hard work 49% Too physical/hard work Physical fitness 47% Physical fitness 47% 44% Expense of bike/equipment 44% Expense of bike/equipment No showers/facilities at destination 44% No showers/facilities at destination 44% Don't like cycling 38% Don't like cycling 38% 36% No/poor cycle parking at home 36% No/poor cycle parking at home 32% Don't know route 32% Don't know route 30% Poor health/disability/illness 30% Poor health/disability/illness 28% Difficult with children 28% Difficult with children 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Completely discourages me Discourages me to some extent Not an issue for me Completely discourages me Discourages me to some extent Not an issue for me TfL Planning 19 1. Safety 2. Carrying items 3. Time it takes 4. Distance A B 5. Get messy
  • 20. Routes: Safety is important to every cyclist, but different groups prefer different types of route & infrastructure Cycle Route Choice Survey: qualitative and quantitative survey conducted in 2012 with London cyclists. 2,307 respondents to quantitative Stated Preference/Intention survey, 25% response rate. Key Findings When choosing a route, the key considerations for cyclists are the safety of that route and being able to avoid traffic and difficult junctions Cyclists were prepared to travel further to cycle in cycle lanes, bus lanes, on residential roads and in particular would travel 3 times further to cycle off-road More confident cyclists and those who cycle most frequently tend to opt for the most direct route But cyclists will make significant detours to avoid junctions perceived to be dangerous TfL Planning 20
  • 21. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 21
  • 22. Monitoring new schemes will provide evidence of what actually works... Barclays Cycle Hire • Increasing the amount of cycling travel in London. 95 per cent of journeys were previously made by another mode or not at all. • Many users are new to cycling in London; in total, 7 in 10 said that the scheme had prompted them to start cycling in the city or to cycle more often. Just over 1 in 8 said that using the scheme had encouraged them to use their own bike more. • Scheme users say they were benefiting from it – as well as agreeing the scheme provided a quick and convenient mode of travel, the majority of users were enjoying using the hire bicycles and were seeing benefits to their health and fitness. TfL Planning 22
  • 23. ... And can be used to verify assumptions arising from stated preference and stated intention surveys. Barclays Cycle Superhighways • Delivering increased cycle flows and encouraging existing cyclists to increase the amount they cycle. Also encouraging use for journeys previously made by other modes and new cycle journeys. • Offering a fast, direct route into central London, the routes are mainly appealing to commuters. • Aspects of the routes that appeal most to users are the visibility of the blue markings, good quality of the road surface, and that they provide a direct route to key destinations. • Cyclists agreed that they were benefiting from an improved journey experience as a result of the introduction of the routes. TfL Planning 23
  • 24. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 24
  • 25. TfL Planning are currently working on a Cycling Policy Evaluation Tool, bringing together this evidence TfL Planning 25
  • 26. Contents Understanding the potential for growth in cycling Analysis of cycling potential Cycle market segmentation Exploring the effectiveness of different interventions Stated intention and stated preference surveys Monitoring revealed preferences Developing bespoke modelling tools Conclusion and questions TfL Planning 26
  • 27. Conclusions • Through creative use of secondary data and targeted data collection to plus knowledge gaps, you can create evidence based policy without the aid of transport models. • Combining analysis of trips and people gives a realistic ‘potential market’; combined with evidence about barriers, attractors and the impact of interventions, this can provide transport planners with the evidence about what will work where. • As the evidence base grows, bespoke spreadsheet models make this process easier. • Investing in monitoring provides a ‘sense check’ for assumptions made based on stated preference and intention data. • Ultimately, as the evidence base and modal importance grows, we aim to ‘mainstream’ cycling in the way we carry out analysis by building it into the strategic models. TfL Planning 27
  • 28. Questions? Clare Sheffield, Policy Analysis Manager Planning, Transport for London claresheffield@tfl.gov.uk www.tfl.gov.uk TfL Planning 28
  • 29. Growth in cycling won’t happen without considerable effort, but the potential is there to deliver the growth required Frequent cyclists already make the majority of cycle trips in London, but there remains some potential for growth, particularly for the journey to work Frequent cyclists Only 2% of London residents cycle to work but they make for around half of all London’s cycle trips Infrequent cyclists There remains significant potential to increase cycle trip making amongst existing infrequent cyclists – safety, traffic and lack of facilities are the greatest barriers to this When asked about a trip that could be cycled 60% of infrequent cyclists said that they would possibly cycle it ‘Just like a cyclist’ Cycling remains a minority activity – there are many people who are ‘just like’ cyclists but do not currently cycle, offering excellent potential for growth in cycle travel Two thirds of those in the group most likely to cycle don’t even own a bike Others: Cycle for fun Non-cyclists can be encouraged to cycle through measures designed to encourage leisure travel bringing long term transport benefits and short term benefits to health & community 7 in 10 non-cyclists would consider cycling for leisure, compared to no more than 4 in 10 for any other trip type TfL Planning 29
  • 30. Underlying the successes has been intelligent use of the data we have and targeted research to fill the knowledge gaps Central London Cycles make up a quarter of traffic in central London in the morning peak - there is the potential to achieve a mode share in the centre of the Capital to challenge that of other major European cycling cities The average cycling speed is 15km, faster than average peak hour road speeds in central London Urban destinations Beyond the centre, the potential is concentrated in pockets in inner London & around outer London metropolitan town centres – boroughs here could deliver radical change One in fourteen potentially cyclable trips start or end in the 11 outer London metropolitan town centres Growth areas Regions expecting significant growth in population and employment have the opportunity to ‘design in’ a high cycle mode share through innovative transport and land use policies Projected growth of around 1.7 million new people in London by 2031 – a 21% increase from 2011 Outer London Huge potential exists in highly dispersed trips across outer London, demonstrating the continued need to maintain investment in interventions able to reach all Londoners If just 1 in 10 potential trips dispersed across outer London is cycled – delivers 50% growth on current levels TfL Planning 30