Euro u 19-summary (2)
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Euro u 19-summary (2)

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Euro u 19-summary (2) Euro u 19-summary (2) Document Transcript

  • 2010 Euro U-19 Championship Summary of Selected DataAll data provided on UEFA websiteMatches played: 135Goals: 409 Scored/ConcededAverage goals per match: 3 (Or, 1.5 per team per match) Table 1 Overall Goal intervals 1 2 3 4 5 6 46 69 64 60 77 93 11.2% 16.9% 15.6% 14.7% 18.8% 22.7% 43.8% 56.2%Overall, 44% and 56% of goals were scored in the 1st and 2nd halves respectively.Attempted Shots: 2268 (However, information was not provided for 5 matches.)Scoring FirstIn 126 of the 135 matches, a team scored first. (There were 9 scoreless draws.)In those 126 matches, the team scoring first won 99 matches, drew 12 and loss 14. The Win ConversionRate (WCR) = 78.6%. In other words, a team that scored first had a 78.6% probability of winning the match.Those 99 teams scored 275 goals and conceded 35. These teams had 1177 attempted shots.The GFA = 2.8.The GAA = 0.4.The average attempted shots per team = 11.9 per match. One goal was scored for every 4.25 shotsattempted. Table 2 Goal intervals Scoring First & Winning Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 30 47 40 40 56 62 10.9% 17.1% 14.5% 14.5% 20.4% 22.5% 42.5% 57.5%
  • Table 2 shows the 6-15ʼ intervals in which the 275 goals were scored by the 99 teams which scored first andwon the match.Winning at Half-TimeIn 82 of the 126 matches, a team was winning at half-time. 74 of those teams won the match. In theremaining 8 matches, there were 4 draws and 4 losses. The WCR = 90.2%. That is, teams winning at HThad a 90.2% probability of winning the match.The 74 winning teams scored 239 goals, conceded 33 and had 892 attempted shots.The GFA = 3.2The GAA = 0.4The average attempted shots per team = 12.1. One goal was scored for 3.7 attempted shots. Table 3 Goal intervals Winning at HT & Winning Match 1 2 3 4 5 6 31 49 42 28 40 49 13.0% 20.5% 17.6% 11.7% 16.7% 20.5% 51.05% 48.95%Observe the significant shift in percentage of goals scored in each half compared to Tables 1 and 2.Win Probability vis-a-vis Goals Scored Table 4 Win Probability 0 Goals 1 Goal 2 Goals 3 Goals 4 Goals 5+ Goals D L W D L W D L W D L W D L W D L 12 70 24 24 35 30 2 9 26 2 1 20 0 0 15 0 0 82 83 41 29 20 15 Probability of Winning (Draw for 0 Goals) 15% 29% 73% 90% 100% 100%Of the 135 matches played, 24 resulted in 1-0 results. Not an uncommon result on many a Saturdayafternoon. However, the probability of winning in the EURO U-19 tournament from scoring 1 goal was 29%.Many teams strive for 2 goals and that 2nd goal significantly increases a teamʼs chance of winning from 29%to 73%. But so does scoring 3 goals. Teams that scored 3 goals per match in the EURO U-19 tournamentwon 90% of their matches.
  • (This finding is similar to that gained from EURO U-17, the 2009-10 Champions League and the FIFA 2010World Cup. The data from these competitions will be collated and summarized at a later date.)Two Goals by HTThirty-nine teams scored a minimum of two goals by half-time and went on to win the match. Two otherteams in a 3-3 draw both scored two goals by half-time and are included in the data in this section.The 41 teams scored 161 goals for an average of 3.9 goals/match. They conceded, on average 0.8 goals/match. Table 5 Goal intervals Winning Teams Scoring 2 or More Goals by HT 1 2 3 4 5 6 23 46 25 16 23 28 14.3% 28.6% 15.5% 9.9% 14.3% 17.4% 58.4% 41.6%The percentages for the 1st and 2nd Halves in Table 5 are almost a mirror image with those in Table 1.The objective of a football match is to WIN! The data from the UEFA U-19 tournament, and others, suggeststhat scoring three goals sharply increases the probability of winning.Scoring the first goal of the match and winning at HT are also strong indicators for a winning result. It alsoseems that an ʻattacking mentalityʼ, derived from a ʻplaying-to-winʼ attitude, from the opening KO plays animportant role in securing the first goal of the match and a lead at HT. Supplementing an early lead with asecond goal before HT almost guarantees a winning result. View slide