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Dynamics of anAging Population   Robert Scardamalia RLS Demographics, Inc. Monday, January 9, 2012
Historical Demographic FactorsHigh Foreign Immigration       Baby Boom Growth                Declining FertilityImmigratio...
Slow Growth in New YorkNew York and Upstate Lag the Nation              Index:              1900 = 100Source: U.S. Bureau ...
National and State Population Change New York Will Lose Two More Congressional SeatsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Regional Differences in PopulationPopulation Change 2000 to 2010Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Boomers Change Everything!
Growth of the Aging PopulationNew York State, 1950 to 2030  Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Cornell University, Prog...
Regional Differentials in Aging - CapitalSource: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population pr...
County Differentials in Aging - CapitalSource: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population proj...
Indicator of Aging – Natural DeclineNatural Decline – the difference between births and deaths     Source: U.S. Bureau of ...
Differential Aging in Our Communities      Lowest Percentage:      LeRay Town, Jefferson County – 2.7%      Highest Percen...
Differential Aging in Our CommunitiesPercentage of the Population     65 and Over, 2000Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Differential Aging in Our CommunitiesPercentage of the Population     65 and Over, 2000 Location of Nursing Homes,  Assist...
Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Mic...
Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Mic...
Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Mic...
Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Mic...
Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Mic...
The Financial Impact of Migration – All Ages      Capital Region Migrants – Net Gain: $148 million  $682 Million          ...
The Financial Impact of Migration – 55 and Over        Capital Region Migrants – Net Loss $60 million  $21.3 MillionEarnin...
Aging – A Long-Term PerspectiveSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Thank You    Robert Scardamalia  RLS Demographics, Inc.       P.O. Box 160 Rensselaerville, NY 12147bob@rlsdemographics.co...
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Torch club 10912

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  • I always find it useful to provide an historical backdrop to New York’s population trends and these involve some very basic and profound demographic factors.Remember, there are only three ways in which an area’s population can change: fertility – people are born into the population, mortality – people die and exit; and finally migration – a dynamic flow in- and out-Early 1900’s – dominated by high foreign immigration until Congress closed the door in 1928 – state and national growth rates plummeted and the depression held back all growthPost war years – dominated by the baby boom and high levels of fertility lasting for nearly 20 years from 1946 to 1964But fertility fell rapidly in the 1960’s followed by oil price hikes, economic recession, inflation, and high interest rates – New York’s economic and financial condition worsened. Western NY impacted by expansive closures of heavy manufacturing in steel and autos.1980’s foreign immigration is again a growth factor along with the echo effect of the baby boom – NOT higher fertility rates – just more women having babies. New York’s economy stabilized and the State returned to moderate growth.The last decade has been difficult with 911 and the financial collapse. Our population growth is among the lowest in the nation.
  • Upstate NY – excluding New York City, Long Island, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam counties – lags in growth. Pockets of economic activity have helped but most growth has occurred in the downstate region. The 2010 Census results showed a bit of a boost for Upstate though they have to be viewed against the low bar that was set by the Census Bureau’s population estimates. The estimates led us to expect declining populations in 35 upstate counties but only 17 actually lost population – see what I mean by a low bar!
  • Another illustration of where New York stands relative to the nation and other states.New York ranked 47th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in percent change. You can see that even with the more positive results of the 2010 Census for Upstate that it still lagged in growth.No surprise here that Southern and Western states have seen the higher rates of growth at the expense of Northern and Eastern states.As a result, New York will lose an additional two seats in Congress and for the first time will equal Florida in the number of representatives at 27.After the 1980 Census, NY lost 5 seats; three after 1990; two after 2000; and two again from the 2010 Census. In thirty years we have dropped from 39 representatives to 27.
  • Just as there is great variation in growth rates among the states, we see variation in New York’s regions.In Western NY, Erie county alone continued it’s long term decline with the loss of more than 40,000 people – 30,000 from the City of Buffalo.The Capital Region and Mid-Hudson Valley have seen the greatest growth though the Finger Lakes region and Central New York have held their own also. High-tech development in the Capital Region, continued sprawl from New York City development, health care and education are the primary drivers if these growth areas.To summarize our picture of population change in New York, we see a state with continued slow growth being outpaced by other states in the Nation and one where sub-state growth varies greatly by region. But, in the best of cases, our regional growth is still only half of the national rate of growth.
  • Let’s turn to the reason we’re here – what about the Aging population? - Nothing new here – the baby boomers change everything.Between 1950 and 1970, the number of students enrolled in elementary and secondary schools increased from 28.7 million to 51.3 million, an increase of nearly 80 percent. The number of teachers increased by nearly two a half times during the same period. Between 1964 and 1985, the number of students enrolled in college increased by more than 50 percent.Family formation increased by 40 percentThe workforce expanded by 50 percent between 1968 and 1986 and the number of jobs the economy generated expanded by a corresponding measure. And in the coming years, the Baby Boom will reach retirement age – it already has for those seeking early retirement. In the course of the next 20 years, the 65 and over population will expand by nearly 80 percent and those 85 and over will more than double by 2050.The single most important factor in each of these expansion periods was the impact of the Baby Boom generation; those born between 1946 and 1964. The Baby Boomers have strained the fabric of each of our institutions since their birth and the next milestone and challenge on the very near horizon is retirement and health care. It’s no wonder then that providers of care for the elderly and those that finance these services are filled with concern.
  • But we still see the same expectation of growth in the New York State older population as nationwide. But we should know now that it won’t be consistent across the State.
  • Coming home to the Capital region we have an area that in total is older than the statewide average and identical to economically troubled Western New York. Yet the Capital region economy has been comparatively healthy.
  • Here we can see why the region is similar to the statewide average. That average masks the considerable variation by county with Columbia counties nudging over 30% while Albany is slightly under 20%. It’s always important to delve below the averages which so often mask the true picture.
  • I mentioned earlier in talking about Delaware County that there’s an important factor affecting an increasing number of New York State counties. That factor is Natural Decline.Natural Decline occurs with the number of deaths is larger than the number of births.In this past decade, nine counties moved to a state of natural decline and the list is growing of those counties that will likely most to that state in the next decade.Nationwide, 854 counties show natural decline – that’s greater than 1 out of every 4 counties – more than New York’s 1 out of every 6.
  • As a reminder that the devil is in the details, the distribution of New York’s senior population is quite varied.The Town of LeRay in Jefferson county has the lowest proportion of 65+ at 2.7% while Dunkirk Town in Chautauqua has the highest at 31.1%. The median age of Dunkirk in 2000 was 50 years. Being the location of the Chautauqua County Home may be the explanation.
  • As we zero in to the Capital region, the variation we saw by county is now a more complete picture by town.The point here is that we have to be aware of the residential locations of the population in thinking about the services required and the options for helping seniors either stay in their or find nearby services.
  • And here we see the concentration of service facilities in the City of Albany and closely surrounding areas which, in fact, are some distance from the towns with concentrations of senior population.
  • Let me quickly illustrate some other characteristics of Capital region seniors, though I don’t think I’ll be showing you any surprises.As age increases, family income decreases. Thirty percent of those age 55 to 64 have family incomes under $30,000 compared to 70% of the 85 and over population.
  • Our seniors are continuing to provide care to their families. 45 percent of those 55 to 64 who are living with grandchildren are responsible for their care and only slightly less for those age 65 to 74. Even among the 75 to 84 age group nearly 1 in 5 are responsible for care of a grandchild.
  • By age 85 two-thirds of our seniors are widowed but another 25 percent are still happily married.
  • No surprise here with more than 70 percent of the 85 and over population reporting a disability. When we couple this characteristic with our earlier look at the growth in the 85 and over population, we can easily see the increasing need for care.
  • And finally,As we look for housing alternatives for the senior population, we see that even by age 85, nearly 70 percent own their homes – or maybe the bank still owns part of it – but 60 percent own their homes “free and clear”.I have to confess, that I did leave something of a surprise for the end…If you’re not familiar with it, the microdata from the Census and the American Community Survey provides all of the individual responses for a sample of records. So we have each individual’s age, gender, race, education, income, etc. responses to the questionnaire. These records allow for tabulation of unique characteristics that aren’t found in Census summary tables though we have a geographic limitation to protect confidentiality.
  • In this slide, I’ve coupled the migration data we looked at earlier with income – earnings data to be more specific – to illustrate the fiscal impacts of migration.When we look at the income flows for the Capital region for migrants of all ages, the region is in the black – or blue as in this slide. A nearly $700 million in-flow of income is offset by an out-flow of some $500 million leaving a net gain of about $150 million in earnings income.
  • When we look at the 55 and over population we get a different picture and we’re in the red.The in-flow of earnings falls to $21 million and is offset by a greater out-flow of more than $80 million. Clearly, much of this is accounted for by the 55 to 64 segment where we saw out-migration to other states among a population that is likely to maintain a workforce, and earnings, connection.
  • When we look at the 55 and over population we get a different picture and we’re in the red.The in-flow of earnings falls to $21 million and is offset by a greater out-flow of more than $80 million. Clearly, much of this is accounted for by the 55 to 64 segment where we saw out-migration to other states among a population that is likely to maintain a workforce, and earnings, connection.
  • Transcript of "Torch club 10912"

    1. 1. Dynamics of anAging Population Robert Scardamalia RLS Demographics, Inc. Monday, January 9, 2012
    2. 2. Historical Demographic FactorsHigh Foreign Immigration Baby Boom Growth Declining FertilityImmigration Quotas Rural/Urban Migration Economic Downturn High Foreign Immigration – Baby Boom Echo – Improved Economy
    3. 3. Slow Growth in New YorkNew York and Upstate Lag the Nation Index: 1900 = 100Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    4. 4. National and State Population Change New York Will Lose Two More Congressional SeatsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    5. 5. Regional Differences in PopulationPopulation Change 2000 to 2010Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    6. 6. Boomers Change Everything!
    7. 7. Growth of the Aging PopulationNew York State, 1950 to 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
    8. 8. Regional Differentials in Aging - CapitalSource: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
    9. 9. County Differentials in Aging - CapitalSource: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
    10. 10. Indicator of Aging – Natural DeclineNatural Decline – the difference between births and deaths Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Annual Population Estimates, Components of Change.
    11. 11. Differential Aging in Our Communities Lowest Percentage: LeRay Town, Jefferson County – 2.7% Highest Percentage: Dunkirk Town, Chautauqua County – 31.1%Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    12. 12. Differential Aging in Our CommunitiesPercentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
    13. 13. Differential Aging in Our CommunitiesPercentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000 Location of Nursing Homes, Assisted Living and Aging Health Care FacilitiesSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Facility locations derived from various sources.
    14. 14. Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    15. 15. Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    16. 16. Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    17. 17. Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata-
    18. 18. Characteristics of Capital Region SeniorsSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    19. 19. The Financial Impact of Migration – All Ages Capital Region Migrants – Net Gain: $148 million $682 Million $534 MillionEarnings Gain Due Earnings Loss Due To In-Migration To Out-Migration Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    20. 20. The Financial Impact of Migration – 55 and Over Capital Region Migrants – Net Loss $60 million $21.3 MillionEarnings Gain Due To In-Migration $81.3 Million Earnings Loss Due To Out-Migration Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    21. 21. Aging – A Long-Term PerspectiveSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
    22. 22. Thank You Robert Scardamalia RLS Demographics, Inc. P.O. Box 160 Rensselaerville, NY 12147bob@rlsdemographics.com 518-703-0724
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