A futures periodic table

  • 1,429 views
Uploaded on

This Table of Futures Elements illustrates some of the important trends and drivers that will influence the future. Combine the elements to help think about what may happen, or needs to happen.

This Table of Futures Elements illustrates some of the important trends and drivers that will influence the future. Combine the elements to help think about what may happen, or needs to happen.

More in: Technology , Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,429
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. A Futures Periodic Table P C Climate Population change D F Tb Db Go S En Su Fw Technology Demographics Food Blur Big Data Governance Security Energy Sustainability Freshwater H Ur Co It Em Mp R Wf Bd Information Emerging Health Urbanisation Control technologies economies Multi-polar Resources Workforce Biodiversity Sa Ed K Cr Eq Fc Bm G Pb Societal Business Planetary attitudes Education Knowledge Creation Inequality Financial crisis models Globalisation boundaries Social Technology Political Economic Environment Nd Ud Pd Ig Natural Unnatural Unknown disasters disasters Pandemics unknownsRobert Hickson Black Swanssciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 2. Global population may be 9 billion by 2050, and potentially more than 10 billion by 2100. New Zealand population may be 5.75 million by 2061. P Population Proportion of people over 65 may One forecast predicts 30% more triple to 1 in 6 by 2050. food will need to be produced by D F 2050. 20% of New Zealand population Will food supplies be able to expected to be over 65 by 2031. Demographics Food meet growing demands? Aging populations and H Ur World becoming more urbanised. more people with chronic diseases. Health Urbanisation What will be implications for transport, energy, food What will be affordable production, education and health healthcare in the future? systems? Sa Ed Societal attitudes Education Is the current education system Societal attitudes influence what suitable for future needs? technologies, policies and economic activities are adopted. How can educational Social achievement be improved for everyone?sciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 3. Increasing tendency for When is more data good?technology to blur (or converge) across disciplinary boundaries. And how do we turn it into useful and timely information? Tb Db Technology We are getting better at Blur Big Data controlling things great and It’s a wired wired world. small, living & non-living. How will this change societies“With great powers come great responsibilities” Co It and economies?.. Information Control technologies The pursuit of knowledge and From knowledge comes the need to improve on whatcame before are driving forces. K Cr invention. Knowledge Creation Technology sciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 4. One for the Geeks & Nerds K Knowledge Ge Sc N Cm Na Ai Bs Cs Stem Computer Artificial Behavioural Climate Genetics cells Neuroscience modelling Nanosciences intelligence science science Cr Etc… Creation Bt Bn Nt Nm Am Ro Ds Gn Bio- Nano- New Additive technologies Bioengineering technologies materials manufacturing Robotics Design Geoengineeringsciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 5. Old ways of governing unlikely to Old and new security challenges work as social, political & from changing technological, economic landscapes change. economic and geopolitical conditions. Go S Governance Security Economic and geopolitical power Rapidly rising economic powers shifting to multi-polar state rather in Asia, Africa and South America than having one dominant are changing global economic geopolitical power. and political structures. Em Mp Emerging economies Multi-polar To what extent will economic & social inequalities change? 2007 global financial crisis Eq Fc continues to constrain many And what will happen if they get countries’ economic worse? Inequality Financial crisis opportunities. Politicalsciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 6. Energy demands continue to grow. “Sustainability” becoming more than just a marketing slogan for How will the transition away from some corporations. fossil fuels play out? En Su Ability to access critical mineral Energy Sustainability resources to support economic Will countries and firms be able and technological developments to attract the skilled workers they may be come more difficult for need? some countries. R Wf Resources Workforce How firms innovate and Economies continue to become collaborate are changing as old Bm G more dependent and integrated. business models fail. Business models Globalisation Economicsciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 7. Threat of significant changes in climatic conditions influencing many human activities. C Climate change Access to good quality freshwater becoming a more important constraint (for both Fw developed and developing countries). Freshwater Continuing loss or threats to Bd biodiversity and natural environments likely to have Biodiversity adverse economic and social consequences. Pb Planetary boundaries Rising population levels and economic activity may place increasing pressure on a range of other “planetary boundaries” that affect quality of life.. Environmentsciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 8. AKA human disasters. Pestilences and diseases. Folly, greed, malice, that go global. incompetence & thoughtlessness. Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanism, floods, drought, We’ll continue to be surprised storms, asteroids, pest about what we don’t know. outbreaks, etc can have devastating consequences. Nd Ud Pd Ig Natural Unnatural Unknown disasters disasters Pandemics unknowns Black Swanssciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 9. A Futures Periodic Table P C Climate Population change D F Tb Db Go S En Su Fw Technology Demographics Food Blur Big Data Governance Security Energy Sustainability Freshwater H Ur Co It Em Mp R Wf Bd Information Emerging Health Urbanisation Control technologies economies Multi-polar Resources Workforce Biodiversity Sa Ed K Cr Eq Fc Bm G Pb Societal Business Planetary attitudes Education Knowledge Creation Inequality Financial crisis models Globalisation boundaries Social Technology Political Economic Environment Nd Ud Pd Ig Natural Unnatural Unknown disasters disasters Pandemics unknowns Black Swanssciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 10. A Futures Periodic TableSo, what are the possibilities when you combine elements? Eg., F Ro Bt En Wf Fw Sa Bio- Societal Food Robotics technologies Energy Workforce Freshwater attitudes What roles will robotics and biotechnologies play in farming in a future carbon and water constrained world? What skills will farm workers need (or won’t we need them)? How will societal and consumer attitudes influence what technologies are used?sciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012
  • 11. A Futures Periodic Table Eg., H Ur Db Em Go Bm C Emerging Business Climate Health Urbanisation Big Data economies Governance models change How can “Big Data” improve the health of people moving to cities in a rapidly developing country, and what new business models and policies may be required to achieve the outcomes? How may climate change affect both health and the economy?sciblogs.co.nz/ariadne © 2012