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Examining hurricane-sandy-storm-surge-2012
 

Examining hurricane-sandy-storm-surge-2012

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    Examining hurricane-sandy-storm-surge-2012 Examining hurricane-sandy-storm-surge-2012 Presentation Transcript

    • RiskMeter Lessons from Hurricane Sandy ©Copyright 2012, CDS Business Mapping, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
    • Agenda Overview of Surge Modeling Difference Between Flood and Surge Maps Sizing the Problem Examples from Sandy
    • Introduction Insurance companies, particularly commercial insurers, are concerned with coastal flooding Hurricane Sandy caused significant losses from surge Hurricane Sandy was more of a flood event than a wind event Recent court rulings have held insurers liable for hurricane flooding even if not technically covered
    • About CDS Storm Surge Model Model is based upon two different sources SLOSH Model  Most well known storm surge model Elevation Data  Using 30m digital elevation models
    • What is SLOSH Data? Slosh predicts storm surge levels based upon different hurricane categories The data we use predicts storm surge heights at high tide  worst case scenario The heights shown are the surge heights above sea-level, not above the ground
    • Texas SLOSH Basins Overlapping basins
    • Slosh Basins-Long Island 7.3,11.2,15.1,18 7.3,11.2,15.1,18 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.5 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.5 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 7,10.8,14.3,17.9 7,10.8,14.3,17.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,16.6 99.9,99.9,99.9,16.6 7.1,10.3,13.8,17.2 6.1,9,12,15.1 6.1,9,12,15.1 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.5 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.5 7.1,10.3,13.8,17.2 7.9,11.5,15.4,18.9 7.9,11.5,15.4,18.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 6.6,9.5,12.5,15.7 6.6,9.5,12.5,15.7 6.8,10.2,13.6,16.9 6.8,10.2,13.6,16.9 6.2,9.3,12.4,15.5 6.2,9.3,12.4,15.5 7.9,11.3,15,18.6 7.9,11.3,15,18.6The label show8.4,12.2,16.1,20 8.4,12.2,16.1,20 7.3,10.6,14,17.3 7.3,10.6,14,17.3 6.3,9,11.8,15 6.3,9,11.8,15 6.5,9.7,12.9,16.1 6.5,9.7,12.9,16.1surge heights for 8.4,12.1,15.9,19.6 8.4,12.1,15.9,19.6 7.8,11.2,14.8,18.3 7.8,11.2,14.8,18.3 6.9,10,13.3,16.4 6.9,10,13.3,16.4 6.1,9.4,12.8,16.3 6.1,9.4,12.8,16.3 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.6 6.5,9.8,13.2,16.6 6.2,9.2,12.2,15.1 6.2,9.2,12.2,15.1 8.2,11.7,15.5,19.1 8.2,11.7,15.5,19.1 7.6,10.9,14.5,17.8 7.6,10.9,14.5,17.8 6.3,9.3,12.3,15.5 6.3,9.3,12.3,15.5Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 8.4,12.1,16,19.8 8,11.4,15.1,18.6 8.4,12.1,16,19.8 8,11.4,15.1,18.6 7,10.1,13.5,16.6 7,10.1,13.5,16.6 6.4,9.8,13.1,16.5 6.4,9.8,13.1,16.5 7.6,10.9,14.5,17.9 7.6,10.9,14.5,17.9 6,9.1,12.4,15.9 6,9.1,12.4,15.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9The gray cells 8.4,12.1,16,19.7 8.4,12.1,16,19.7 7.9,11.4,15,18.5 7.9,11.4,15,18.5 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 6.5,9.9,13.2,16.4 6.5,9.9,13.2,16.4 7.6,11,14.5,17.9have no surge 8.4,12.1,15.9,19.6 8.4,12.1,15.9,19.6 8.1,11.6,15.3,18.8 8.1,11.6,15.3,18.8 7.6,11,14.5,17.9 5.4,8.3,11.5,14.7 5.4,8.3,11.5,14.7 6.4,9.9,13.5,17.2 6.4,9.9,13.5,17.2 6,9.2,12.3,15.3 6,9.2,12.3,15.3values 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 6.8,10.6,14.4,17.8 6.8,10.6,14.4,17.8 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 5.6,8.7,12.3,15.9 5.6,8.7,12.3,15.9 5.3,7.8,10.4,12.9 5.3,7.8,10.4,12.9There are cells 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 7,11.1,15.1,18.8 7,11.1,15.1,18.8 6.6,10.3,14,17.3 6.6,10.3,14,17.3 6.1,9.3,12.5,15.4 6.1,9.3,12.5,15.4 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9which clearly 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 5.3,7.9,10.6,13.2 5.3,7.9,10.6,13.2would experience 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 5.9,9,12,14.9 5.9,9,12,14.9 6.5,10,13.4,16.7 6.5,10,13.4,16.7 6.9,10.9,14.7,18 6.9,10.9,14.7,18 99.9,12,15.5,19.7 99.9,12,15.5,19.7 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 7,11,15.1,20.5 99.9,99.9,99.9,99.9 7,11,15.1,20.5storm surge, that Storm Surge 5.1,7.6,10.1,12.6 5.1,7.6,10.1,12.6 7.3,11.6,15.1,19 7.3,11.6,15.1,19 6.6,10.1,13.5,16.6 6.1,9.1,12.3,15.1 5.5,8.3,11.1,13.9 6.6,10.1,13.5,16.6 6.1,9.1,12.3,15.1 5.5,8.3,11.1,13.9 Category 4 Heightshave no values 3.5,7.4,13.6,18.1 6.8,11.1,15.2,20.1 3.5,7.4,13.6,18.1 6.8,11.1,15.2,20.1 99.9 to 99.9 (3520) 3.3,7.3,13.5,17.6 7.8,12.2,16.1,19.3 3.3,7.3,13.5,17.6 7.8,12.2,16.1,19.3 24.5 to 99.9 (725) 7,10.9,14.2,17.5 6.4,9.8,13,15.9 5.9,8.9,11.9,14.7 7,10.9,14.2,17.5 6.4,9.8,13,15.9 5.9,8.9,11.9,14.7 18.6 to 24.5 (761) 5.4,8.3,11.2,13.8 5.4,8.3,11.2,13.8 5.1,7.6,10.2,12.6 5.1,7.6,10.2,12.6 12.3 to 18.6 (979) 4.7,6.9,9.2,11.5 4.7,6.9,9.2,11.5 8.3,13,17.3,20.2 8.3,13,17.3,20.2 7.6,11.7,15.5,18.4 4.7 to 12.3 (1313) 7.6,11.7,15.5,18.4 6.6,10.1,13.3,16.1 6.6,10.1,13.3,16.1 5.8,8.8,11.8,14.7 5.4,8.2,11.1,13.7 5.8,8.8,11.8,14.7 5.4,8.2,11.1,13.7 8,12.4,16.5,19.8 8,12.4,16.5,19.8 5.1,7.6,10.2,12.6 5.1,7.6,10.2,12.6 7.2,11,14.5,17.5 7.2,11,14.5,17.5 4.8,7,9.2,11.5 4.8,7,9.2,11.5 6.3,9.5,12.6,15.5 6.3,9.5,12.6,15.5 7.7,11.7,15.5,18.6 7.7,11.7,15.5,18.6 5.5,8.5,11.4,14.1 5.5,8.5,11.4,14.1 Eastern end of Long Island, NY
    • Surge Contours•The problem isn’t as simple as it seems•In this illustration, you can see that a location may be inland, but protected by a hill;but if the water is high enough, it may go over the hill (or levee – think Katrina)•Just because SLOSH says the water is above the elevation of the location, this doesNOT mean that the property would be inundated; topology matters
    • Surge Contours – Long Island Storm Surge By Storm Category 3 4 2 1 Eastern end of Long Island, NY 0
    • What we’ve developed We’ve combined the storm surge contours and SLOSH data We’ve filled in the missing SLOSH cells We give you the highest values from multiple basins (users do not have to select a basin) If you combine this with the RiskMeter slope/aspect/elevation report, you can estimate the water depth at any location! This gives the most complete picture of storm surge effects in an area available today, from anyone
    • Fields Returned Minimum Hurricane Category Surge Risk Score Surge Height Category 1 Surge Height Category 2 Surge Height Category 3 Surge Height Category 4 Surge Height Category 5 Notes
    • How Big is the Problem? NY/Long Island Example
    • How Big is the Problem? New York/Long IslandPopulation living in a 100 year flood zone: 2,482,038Population living in a storm surge area: 4,746,434Population living in a storm surge area and not recognized as a 100 year flood zone: 2,936,639 Population based upon storm category:Category 1: 238,355Category 2: 524,434Category 3: 962,823Category 4: 1,211,027
    • How Big is the Problem? As you can see, in TX, storm surge extends tens of miles inland!
    • Brooklyn/Bronx Flood ZonesPink – 100 year flood zones
    • Brooklyn/Bronx Flood Zones with Surge ModelPink – 100 year flood zones; dark blue Cat 1 surge; light blue cat 2
    • Brooklyn/Bronx Flood Zones with Surge Model and Actual FloodingPink – 100 year flood zones; dark blue Cat 1 surge; light blue cat 2Red – Actual Flooding
    • Actual Flooding vs. ModelDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Dark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2
    • Dark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Dark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Dark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Dark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Staten Island- ActualDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Staten Island- Actual with Surge ModelDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Southern Manhattan – ActualRed – Actual Flooding
    • Southern Manhattan – Actual With Surge ModelDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Tip of Manhattan - ActualRed – Actual Flooding
    • Tip of Manhattan – Actual With Surge ModelDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Brooklyn/Bronx - ActualRed – Actual Flooding
    • Brooklyn/Bronx – Actual With Surge ModelDark blue Cat 1 surge; Light blue cat 2; Red – Actual Flooding
    • Coming Improvements New SLOSH Data • ACE has recently released new data New Elevation Data • Updated USGS elevation data
    • Conclusions Checking flood maps is not a viable risk mitigation strategy along the coast Surge maps must be used The RiskMeter Surge Report was very accurate at predicting Sandy’s effects Customers saved millions of dollars by referencing these maps
    • Contact InformationIf you have any questions, please contact: Dan Munson Vice President of Sales & Marketing 617-737-4444 dmunson@cdsys.com