Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD
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Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD Presentation Transcript

  • 1. View from the Catbird Seat A Glimpse of the Next 20 Years Presented By: Nelson B. Heller, PhD The Heller Reports, a QED Co. September 16, 2008
  • 2. Tomorrow’s Big Ideas • Digital Mobility • Distance Learning • Platform wars: next generation portals • OS/Web 2.0 business models • Energy and Climate: Business opportunities
  • 3. Digital mobility, 1989…
  • 4. … and today
  • 5. Kindle e-Book Reader
  • 6. Kindle – Smart and Wireless • Free EV-DO connectivity • 1-click wireless purchasing • 200-600 book capacity • Newspapers, blogs, web, search • Dictionary, notes, bookmarks, clippings, search • Low power consumption
  • 7. E-Ink/ePaper Display Technology
  • 8. Is Kindle <-> books as iPod <-> media? • Significant but not explosive sales • Bezos keynote at Book Expo America • But it’s not… • Color • Very interactive • …a Netbook
  • 9. Distance Learning <-> Online Learning • US K-12 market trends • Accelerating internationally • US K-12 acquisition flurry • Market drivers • Blended/Hybrid Learning • implications
  • 10. US K-12 DL/OL • $50 mil/yr, growing at 30% • 42 states w significant OL pgms • 26 state-wide/state-led VS • 2014: 10% HS courses OL • 2019: 50% HS courses OL • 72% of DL districts expanding OL in coming year
  • 11. Accelerating internationally • South Korea • European Union • Mexico • Singapore • India • China
  • 12. US K-12 acquisition flurry • GlobalScholar.com (Knowledge Universe/Ignition Partners) • Insight Schools (Apollo Group/U of Phoenix) • Advanced Academics (DeVry) • U of Miami HS (Kaplan) • eCollege/eClassroom (Pearson) • Penn Foster (The Wright Group)
  • 13. K-12 Market drivers • ADA, counter-recessionary • Credit recovery eclipsing AP • Legislators/public motivated • "Real estate leverage"/scalability • Efficiency/Effectiveness • "Disrupting Class": K-12 game changer
  • 14. Blended/Hybrid Learning • Digital classrooms in B/M facilities • Mainstream – not alternative - opportunity • Flexnet, "the online education with class“ (U of Phoenix)
  • 15. implications for the K-12 market • Books -> digital resources • Learning modules • LMS/CMS • Not just anytime, anywhere: its any way too • Content aggregation no longer a viable business model
  • 16. Barriers • Teachers and Unions • Shortage of qualified instructors • ADA funding competition • Bandwidth • Locally authored curricula • Exam proctoring
  • 17. Platform wars: next generation portals • Your future home? • Escalating capabilities spectrum • Growing list of players • Veterans • Newbies • Business implications
  • 18. Blackboard K-12
  • 19. VIP Tone’s EduTone Xchange
  • 20. Capabilities spectrum • Single sign-on and user authentication • SaaS or local • Collaboration, communication, social networking • Content archives, lockers, e- portfolios • Rich multimedia
  • 21. Capabilities - more • Scheduling • Courseware authoring • Assessment • Off-line functionality • Portable desktops • Students, educators, parents • API friendly • 3rd party platform (license and financial management)
  • 22. Veteran players • Blackboard • Desire2Learn • Angel Learning • eClassroom • LearningStation • Moodle • Sakai
  • 23. Newbies • Follett Digital Classroom • IQ-ity • Agilix's GoCourse • Etech's Studywiz Spark • VIP Tone • Editure's MySuite • Drupal
  • 24. Platform wars: business implications • Compatibility • Pedagogy • Software architecture • Business models • Mix’n’match • Platform intermediation • Support • Auditing
  • 25. OS/Web 2.0 business models • Open Content: Failure to Thrive • MITE's Nat'l Repository of Online Courses (NROC) • Open API opportunities: Facebook • EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
  • 26. Open Content: Failure to Thrive • Quality • Coverage • Standardization • Alignment • Marketing/sales • Customer service, support • PD
  • 27. Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
  • 28. National Repository of Online Courses (NROC) • Open Educational Resource (OER) • Courses contributed by academic institutions • Editorial investment • Income from Institutions • Two parallel value propositions
  • 29. Open API opportunities • Facebook • Cramster.com • Blackboard.com • SuperCool School
  • 30. Facebook
  • 31. Cramster.com/FB
  • 32. Blackboard.com/FB
  • 33. Bb sync FB User Posts
  • 34. SuperCool School/FB
  • 35. EdNET's LinkedIn Social Network
  • 36. EdNET Social Network
  • 37. Energy and Climate: Business opportunities
  • 38. Finding Opportunities • Virtualization • Travel, emission costs -> DL • Sustainability Challenge • Craig Michaels' "The Sustainable Operations Summit" • Solar Installation Part of University's Commitment
  • 39. Thanks… • The last 20 years have been a real privilege • The future is ours, our children’s, their children’s… • The next 20 years are crucial -- and promising -- thanks in advance
  • 40. Contact Info Nelson B. Heller, PhD President, The Heller Reports, a QED Company 858-720-1616 nelson@HellerReports.com Anne Wujcik Managing Editor and Research Principal The Heller Reports/QED (773) 594-9392 anne@HellerReports.com http://HellerReports.com