Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman & CEO Cassatt Corporation
Inflection Points in Human History <ul><ul><li>The Invention of Language </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Invention of the P...
The Cycles of Innovation Model <ul><li>“ Predicting the future is pointless, but it is possible to identify trends that ha...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><...
The Inflection Point <ul><li>Cycle 3:  The network, the last piece falls in place </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Platform shift...
The Cloud: The IT Platform Utility  <ul><li>Rules of a Platform :  Think of Apple versus Microsoft </li></ul><ul><ul><li>C...
Evolution of The Cloud <ul><li>Cloud 1.0 :  2000 – 2010, PaaS, IaaS, SaaS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenfield, External, Prop...
Emergence of The Web <ul><li>The world of everybody and everything! </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet has three properties th...
Cycle 4: Web 2.0 Social Networking 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1...
Cycle 5: The Internet Economy 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul>...
Cycle 6: Web Presence 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030  2040 Phase 3   Phase 2   Phase 1 <ul><li>Comm...
Life on the Web in 2040 <ul><li>Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties </li></ul><ul><li>The “Pull” E...
 
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Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman

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Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman

  1. 1. Bill Coleman Founder, Chairman & CEO Cassatt Corporation
  2. 2. Inflection Points in Human History <ul><ul><li>The Invention of Language </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Invention of the Printing Press </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Invention of the Web </li></ul></ul><ul><li>… and we are at the Inflection Point of the Web right now! </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Cycles of Innovation Model <ul><li>“ Predicting the future is pointless, but it is possible to identify trends that have significant effects.” </li></ul><ul><li>Peter Drucker </li></ul><ul><li>Cycles are thirty years long, one starts every 10 years </li></ul><ul><li>Cycles include three ten year phases: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Invention, Boom and Bust </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buildout and Consolidation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Information age includes six cycles 1960 - 2040 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycles 1 – 3: The Cloud Platform </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycles 4 – 6: The Web Platform </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycle 4 is the Inflection Point 1990 – 2020 RIGHT NOW! </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6
  5. 5. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul>Semiconductors Semiconductors
  6. 6. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul>Semiconductors
  7. 7. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul>
  8. 8. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul>Computers Networks <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul>
  9. 9. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul>Networks <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul>
  10. 10. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Client/Serve </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Dist Storage: </li></ul><ul><li>SAN & NAS </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking and Storage Systems and Software </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Six Cycles of Innovation 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 The Inflection Point! <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Client/Serve </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Dist Storage: </li></ul><ul><li>SAN & NAS </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking and Storage Systems and Software </li></ul>
  12. 12. The Inflection Point <ul><li>Cycle 3: The network, the last piece falls in place </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Platform shifts from the desktop to the network! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The basis of the Cloud Platform </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cycle 4: The Internet and the Inflection Point </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The final end! Everyone and everything is connected! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final Evolution of The Cloud! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of The W eb! </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. The Cloud: The IT Platform Utility <ul><li>Rules of a Platform : Think of Apple versus Microsoft </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Commoditization of IT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Switching Cost = 10X value improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customization makes long tail possible </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rules of a Utility : Think if the Electric Utility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Isolation of supply & demand: Scale, Choice, Competitive pricing (Isolation of ISO Level 7 from 1 – 6) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Meter on the customer based on quantity and quality of service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer owns their IP & controls its usage ( Software & Policy ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Self-configuring, Self-optimizing & Self-healin g </li></ul>
  14. 14. Evolution of The Cloud <ul><li>Cloud 1.0 : 2000 – 2010, PaaS, IaaS, SaaS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenfield, External, Proprietary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Neither a Platform or a Utility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g.. Amazon, Salesforce.com, Google </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud 2.0 : 2010 – 2020, Cloud 1.0 plus </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quadruple Conversion and Consumerization of IT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CaaS: Client as a service, online and mobile worlds converge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal Cloud: First IT Platform (E.g. Cassatt, first Cloud Platform) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>External Cloud Extends: Connectivity of Apps and Mobility of Data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A Platform but not a Utility! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cloud 3:0 : 2020 - 2030, The Cloud Utility Platform </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The end of IT as we know it – Everything As A Service! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The choice, control and ownership </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Emergence of The Web <ul><li>The world of everybody and everything! </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet has three properties that create value: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free reach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Straight-thru-processing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Evolution of the Web, Cycles 4 – 6: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycle 4: Web 2.0 - Free Reach (1990 - 2020) Social Networking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycle 5: Web 3.0 - Straight-thru processing (2000 -2030) Pull Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycle 6: Web 4.0 - Transparency (2010 - 2040) The Cyber-Aware Proxy </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Cycle 4: Web 2.0 Social Networking 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Ecommerce </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul>Straight –Thru-Processing Transparency <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Client/Serve </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Dist Storage: </li></ul><ul><li>SAN & NAS </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>Search, SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Social Networking </li></ul><ul><li>- Dist Co-Creation </li></ul><ul><li>___________ Application & </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking and Storage Systems and Software </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Personal Cyber </li></ul><ul><li>Assistant </li></ul><ul><li>____________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul>
  17. 17. Cycle 5: The Internet Economy 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Ecommerce </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –Thru-Processing </li></ul><ul><li>WOA/Mashups </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 1.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 1.0 </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 Apps </li></ul><ul><li>and “Pull” </li></ul><ul><li>business models </li></ul>Transparency <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Client/Serve </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Dist Storage: </li></ul><ul><li>SAN & NAS </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>Search, SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Social Networking </li></ul><ul><li>-Dist Co-Creation </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Application & </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –Thru-Processing </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 “Pull” </li></ul><ul><li>Internet Commerce </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>ICT Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Providers (Quad </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence ) </li></ul><ul><li>Search and Ad </li></ul><ul><li>business models </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking and Storage Systems and Software </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Personal Cyber </li></ul><ul><li>Assistant </li></ul><ul><li>____________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –thru -Processing </li></ul><ul><li>WOA/Mashups </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Cyber Proxy </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 Apps </li></ul><ul><li>and “Push” </li></ul><ul><li>business </li></ul><ul><li>models </li></ul>
  18. 18. Cycle 6: Web Presence 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 <ul><li>Commoditization </li></ul><ul><li>Build Out </li></ul><ul><li>_______ </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Invention </li></ul><ul><li>_________ </li></ul><ul><li>Boom & Bust </li></ul>Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Cycle 5 Cycle 6 <ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Ecommerce </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –Thru-Processing </li></ul><ul><li>WOA/Mashups </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 1.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 1.0 ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 Apps </li></ul><ul><li>and “Pull” </li></ul><ul><li>business models </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Associative </li></ul><ul><li>data services </li></ul><ul><li>Quantum </li></ul><ul><li>computing ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 4.0: </li></ul><ul><li>Web Presence </li></ul><ul><li>(applications </li></ul><ul><li>and business </li></ul><ul><li>models) </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Chip design & </li></ul><ul><li>test tools </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductor </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Software: DBMS </li></ul><ul><li>Games, Word </li></ul><ul><li>Processing & </li></ul><ul><li>Spreadsheets </li></ul><ul><li>MSDOS: Binary </li></ul><ul><li>Compatibility ______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer HW & </li></ul><ul><li>SW Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Client/Serve </li></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Dist Storage: </li></ul><ul><li>SAN & NAS </li></ul><ul><li>______________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking </li></ul><ul><li>Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>Search, SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Social Networking </li></ul><ul><li>- Dist Co-Creation </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Application & </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –Thru-Processing </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 “Pull” </li></ul><ul><li>Internet Commerce </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>ICT Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Providers (Quad </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence ) </li></ul><ul><li>Search and Ad </li></ul><ul><li>business models </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Web 4.0 “Web </li></ul><ul><li>Presence” </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Self-forming </li></ul><ul><li>“ applications” </li></ul><ul><li>Pull market </li></ul><ul><li>economics </li></ul><ul><li>consolidates </li></ul><ul><li>the “Push” </li></ul><ul><li>mass market </li></ul><ul><li>economy </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated </li></ul><ul><li>circuit </li></ul><ul><li>Simple memory </li></ul><ul><li>and logic chips </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Semiconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>Servers (Unix </li></ul><ul><li>Workstations) ___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Computer </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and </li></ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Hubs & Routers </li></ul><ul><li>Networking SW </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Networking and Storage Systems and Software </li></ul><ul><li>Reach </li></ul><ul><li>WWW </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Personal Cyber </li></ul><ul><li>Assistant </li></ul><ul><li>____________ </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Applications & </li></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul><ul><li>Straight –thru -Processing </li></ul><ul><li>WOA/Mashups </li></ul><ul><li>Identity 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Cyber Proxy </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 3.0 Apps </li></ul><ul><li>and “Push” </li></ul><ul><li>business </li></ul><ul><li>models </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul><ul><li>Associative </li></ul><ul><li>data services </li></ul><ul><li>Web 4.0 </li></ul><ul><li>- Cyber Awareness </li></ul><ul><li>- Physical & Virtual </li></ul><ul><li>converge </li></ul><ul><li>___________ </li></ul><ul><li>Web 4.0: </li></ul><ul><li>Web Presence </li></ul><ul><li>(applications </li></ul><ul><li>and business </li></ul><ul><li>models) </li></ul>
  19. 19. Life on the Web in 2040 <ul><li>Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties </li></ul><ul><li>The “Pull” Economy dramatically improves productivity moving most the world into the middle class! </li></ul><ul><li>Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our abilities transcend our disabilities! </li></ul><ul><li>My Cyber-Aware Proxy: The self-aware proxy for life “My buddy, my alter-ego, my mentor and my guardian! </li></ul><ul><li>My world is under my control. </li></ul><ul><li>So what comes next? </li></ul><ul><li>The Dematerialization Age, where Bio meets Nano </li></ul>

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