Climate change impact on se aagric-070511 [compatibility mode]-3

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Climate change impact on se aagric-070511 [compatibility mode]-3

  1. 1. The Impacts of climateThe Impacts of climatechange on agriculture: Vulnerability,change on agriculture: Vulnerability,impacts and adaptation with reference toimpacts and adaptation with reference toSoutheast Asian countriesSoutheast Asian countriesChamhuriChamhuri SiwarSiwar• UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia (UKM)ChamhuriChamhuri SiwarSiwarcsiwar@ukm.mycsiwar@ukm.myInstitute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)UniversitiUniversiti KebangsaanKebangsaan MalaysiaMalaysia(National University of Malaysia)(National University of Malaysia)PresentedPresented atat UniversitasUniversitas SyiahSyiah Kuala,Kuala, AchehAcheh, Indonesia, IndonesiaIkatetaIkateta UnsyiahUnsyiah, 07, 07 May 2011May 2011
  2. 2. Presentation Outline• Concepts of climate change• Global trends of climate change• Climate change impacts• Impacts on vulnerable and povertygroups• Adaptation and mitigation• Conclusion
  3. 3. Concept of climate changeConcept of climate change
  4. 4. Concepts• What is climate change?– The variation in the Earths global climate or in regional climatesover time, such as* variations in sunlight intensity* greenhouse gas emission* higher sunlight intensity, temperature rise* extreme temperature* extreme temperature* unexpected rainfall, losses of ecosystem and so on…– Caused by processes of internal and external forces to the Earth– More recently, human activities have contributed to climate change– there is 90-95% likelihood that changes in modern climate havebeen in part caused by human actions.
  5. 5. Global trends of climate changeGlobal trends of climate change
  6. 6. Carbon dioxide emissions-2Global atmosphericconcentrations ofgreenhouse gases (GHG)increased markedly as aresult of human activities,10000 5000 0Time (before 2005)result of human activities,with an increaseof 70% in 1970-2004
  7. 7. Sources of CO2 emissions and otherSources of CO2 emissions and otheranthropogenic GHGsanthropogenic GHGsEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy Sector• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries• Transport• Residential Sector• Commercial• AgricultureAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture Sector• Crop Agriculture• Livestock and Manure ManagementLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry• Conversion of Land• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation
  8. 8. Changes in global averagesurface temperatureEleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmestyears in the instrumental record of global surface temperature50 years 0.128oC100 years 0.074oCPeriod Rate / decade
  9. 9. Ranges for predicted surface warmingContinued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºCover the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)year
  10. 10. Climate Change effectsTemperature projections from 1970 to 2010
  11. 11. Carbon Dioxide and TemperatureSource: Petit et al. (1999)
  12. 12. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature20052040(375 ppm)(440 ppm)
  13. 13. Average arctic temperaturesincreased at almost twice theglobal average rate in thepast 100 years- Annual average arctic sea iceextent has shrunk by 2.7% perextent has shrunk by 2.7% perdecade
  14. 14. The frequency of heavyprecipitation eventshas increased overmost land areas- Rainfall in Mumbai(India), 2005: 1million people lostmillion people losttheir homes
  15. 15. The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higherintensity have increased over the past 3 decades- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008:100 000 estimated deaths
  16. 16. Intense tropical cyclone activity has increasedin the North Atlantic since about 1970- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate
  17. 17. Heat waves have become more frequentover most land areas- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
  18. 18. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average havedeclined in both hemispheres.- The 18,000 year old Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft)up in the Andes, used to be the worlds highest ski run, nowreduced to a few small pieces of ice
  19. 19. Summary of projection climate change trendsTemperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over landareasLower increases in temperature in maritime environmentsPrecipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a dryingin mid- latitudes (sub-tropics) over AsiaEquatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean changeEquatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean changeexpectedNo increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by10-20%Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will notexist by 2050 with current and projected warming trendsSea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) butestimates don’t include significant ice meltSource: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia
  20. 20. Climate change impactsClimate change impacts
  21. 21. Economic impact of climate change– Decline in agricultural productivity– Infrastructure destruction– Decline in GDP growth– Decline in availability and quality of waterresources– Loss of welfare– Poverty increase
  22. 22. “Warming of the climatesystem is unequivocal”- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
  23. 23. Climate Change effects...Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities ** From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  24. 24. Future Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateRainfallIncreased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudesDecreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudesTemperatureGlobal temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)Sea level riseSea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990and the 2080sExtreme eventsLikely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes willbecome more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavyprecipitation
  25. 25. Temperature• Agriculture• Water• Energy• TransportationPotential ImpactsImpacted SectorsPotential sectoral impacts of changeRainfallSea level rise• Transportation• Health• Infrastructure• Economy• Disastermanagement
  26. 26. Source: WDR 2010
  27. 27. Source: WDR 2010
  28. 28. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to IncreaseHigher maximum temperatures; morehot days and heatwaves over nearly allland areas (very likely)Higher minimum temperatures; fewercold days frost days and cold spells overnearly all land areas (very likely)- Increased mortality in old people in urbanareas- Damage to crops- Heat stress on livestockProjected changes during the 21stcenturyExamples of impactsmore intense precipitation events overmany areas (very likely)increased summer drying over mostmid-latitude continental interiors andassociated risk of drought (likely)increase in tropical cyclone peak windintensity, mean and peak precipitationintensities (likely)- Extended range of pests and diseases- Loss of some crop/fruit- Land slides, mudslides, damage toproperty and increased insurance costs- Reduced rangeland productivity,increased wildfires, decreasedhydropower- Damage to various ecological andsocioeconomic systems
  29. 29. More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological andsocioeconomic systems are projected
  30. 30. 2020sInitially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropicseven with warming of a few degrees2050s2080s
  31. 31. Extreme weather events and crop yieldsEcological systems have many interacting non-linearprocesses and are thus subject to abrupt changes andthreshold effects arising from relatively small changes indriving variables, such as climate.For example:For example:Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by cropand variety, can affect key development stages of some cropsand result in severe losses in crop yields.
  32. 32. Climate Change effectsClimate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudesDecreases likely in most subtropical land regionsSource: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia
  33. 33. Climate change impacts on agricultureClimate change impacts on agriculture
  34. 34. Impact on Global Welfare and Production, 2080(%change)Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)
  35. 35. Climate-change impacts on aggregate crop production indeveloping and developed regions for projections of IPCCscenario A2, without economic adjustment.Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)Note: H3 = HadCM3; CS = CSIRO; C2 = CGCM2; NC = NCAR-PCM.
  36. 36. Impacts on Agricultural Production and Trade inSoutheast Countries, 2080(% change)Adapted from Zhai & Zhuang (2009)
  37. 37. Changes in rice production potential in Southeast Asia(1990 =1.0)AIFI (Reference scenario) AIFI (450 ppm scenario)• Under A1FI reference scenario, rice production potential in SEA willinitially increase and, after reaching a turning point in 2050, declinedue to the changing patterns of temperature and precipitation.•However, under climate stabilizing scenario (450ppm) the productionpotential will be maintained.Source: ADB (2009)
  38. 38. Climate-change induced yield effects by crop and managementsystem, % change from yield with 2000 climate to yield with 2050climateAdapted from Nelson,et al. (2009)
  39. 39. Macro-economic Impacts of Climate Change on SoutheastCountries, 2080 (% change)Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)
  40. 40. Projected Change in Mean SurfaceAir Temperature for Southeast Asia under A1FI and B1 (withrespect to baseline period of 1961—1990), ºCSource: IPCC (2007)- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this centurytemperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same globalpopulation, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapidchange in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions inmaterial intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.
  41. 41. Rice Yield Change in Viet Nam(comparison with base year, 1980—1990), %Source: IPCC (2007)- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this centurytemperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same globalpopulation, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapidchange in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions inmaterial intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.
  42. 42. Maize Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with base year,1980—1990), %Source: IPCC (2007)- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this centurytemperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same globalpopulation, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapidchange in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions inmaterial intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.
  43. 43. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian’sAgricultureAdapted from Stern (2007)
  44. 44. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian’sAgriculture– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremesthat include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niñaevents, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions moreacute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, theirlivelihoods, and the environment as a whole.– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impactingmany sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of waterresources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, andtropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, andhave contributed to a decline in the production of grains andindustrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.
  45. 45. Potential Impact of Climate Change on EastAsian’s Agriculture– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremesthat include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niñaevents, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions moreacute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, theirlivelihoods, and the environment as a whole.– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impactingmany sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of waterresources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, andtropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, andhave contributed to a decline in the production of grains andindustrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.
  46. 46. Potential Impact of Climate Change on EastAsian’s Agriculture– As projected by the IPCC (2007), Southeast Asia is likely toexperience increased exposure to extreme events, including fire risk,typhoons and tropical storms, floods, and landslides, as well aswater-borne and vector-borne diseases.– The heat and water stresses brought about by climate change arelikely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in theregion.region.– Rising sea levels will cause large-scale inundation along theextensive coastlines and will lead to a recession of flat sandybeaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs is alsounder threat.
  47. 47. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia– Asia-Pacific region will experience the worst effect onrice and wheat yields worldwide, and decreased yieldscould threaten the food security of 1.6 billion people inSouth Asia.– The crop model indicates that in South Asia, averageyields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels byyields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels byabout 50 percent for wheat, 17 percent for rice, andabout 6 percent for maize because of climate change.– In east Asia and the pacific, yields in 2050 for crops willdecline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4percent for maize because of climate change.
  48. 48. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia– With climate change, average calorie availability in Asiain 2050 is expected to be about 15 percent lower andcereal consumption is projected to decline by as muchas 24 percent compared to a no climatechange scenario.– In a no-climate change scenario, the number of– In a no-climate change scenario, the number ofmalnourished children in South Asia would fall from 76to 52 million between 2000 and 2050, and from 24 to 10million in East Asia and the Pacific. Climate change willerase some of this progress, causing the number ofmalnourished children in 2050 to rise to 59 million inSouth Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and thePacific, increasing the total number of malnourishedchildren in Asia by about 11 million.
  49. 49. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia– The Asian countries most vulnerable to climate changeare Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, LaoPDR, Myanmar, and Nepal.– Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal areparticularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due toparticularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due toglacial melting, floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall,among other factors.– Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world,accounting for about 89 percent of people affected bydisasters worldwide.
  50. 50. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia– To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition,South Asia requires additional annual investments of1.5 billion USD in rural development, and East Asia andthe Pacific require almost 1 million USD more. Over halfof these investments in both regions must be forof these investments in both regions must be forirrigation expansion.– More than 60 percent of the economically activepopulation and their dependents—2.2 billion people—rely on agriculture for their livelihoods in developingparts of AsiaSource: International Food Policy Research Institute ( 2009)
  51. 51. Climate impacts on global agricultureCrop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid tohigh latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease forgreater warmingCrop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmingsof 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which wouldincrease risk of hungerincrease risk of hungerAgricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones(lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% perdegree of warmingNorthward shift of agricultural zones in AsiaCommercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestlyLikely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertainSource: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia
  52. 52. Impacts on global agricultureSource: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)
  53. 53. Impacts on global agricultureSource: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)
  54. 54. Climate related drivers on agricultureThe main four climate related drivers on agriculture are:1. Elevated carbon dioxide2. Rainfall and associated water resource availability3. Temperature – both direct and indirect through3. Temperature – both direct and indirect throughevaporation4. Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)These drivers are interact and affect agricultural productivity,quality, pests and diseases.
  55. 55. Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climatechange by sub-regions in AsiaSource: IPCC 2007
  56. 56. impacts of climate change on food, fiber, forestry andfisheries, by time incrementSource: IPCC 2007
  57. 57. Changes on cereal production under three differentGCM scenarios. The developed countries could convert negative climate effect to positive with theiradaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.Source: UNEP GRID 2010
  58. 58. Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia byPossible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by20412041--2050:2050:• Temperature rise 20C• More extreme hydrologicalconditions– Higher maximumrainfall; Lowerminimum rainfall.– Higher high river flow;Source: NAHRIM (2006) – Higher high river flow;Lower low river flowWater balance Water sufficiencyCrops yields Food securityPlantation Economic lossInfrastructure Repairs &reconstructionPotential implicationsPotential implications
  59. 59. Climate Change Impacts on Malaysia• Increases in temperature effects:– It affects the moisture availability through effects onevaporation; in general evaporation increases by about 5% foreach 1oC increase in main annual temperature. This would besignificant in tropical regions where most crops are generallyconstrained by water availability (NRS, 2001).• The Agriculture and crop yield effects:– Increased temperature reduces crop yield and areas prone todrought can become marginal or unsuitable for the cultivationof some crops such as rubber, oil palm and cocoa. Forestshowever, are also vulnerable. As a result of sea level rise themangrove forests along coast line could be nullified by a lossof between 15% and 20% (NRS, 2001).• NRS. 2001. “National response strategies to climate change”, Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment, Malaysia.
  60. 60. Future projection of climate change on Malaysia:selected statesClimateFactorProjected Change in Maximum Monthly ValueNorth WestRegion(West Coast,Perak,North East Region(North east coast,Terengganu,Kelantan)CentralRegion(Klang,Selangor,SouthernRegion(Johor,SouthernPerak,Kedah)Selangor,Pahang)SouthernPeninsula)Rainfall + 6.2 % + 32.8 % + 8.0 % + 2.9 %Temperature +1.80 0C +1.88 0C +1.38 0C +1.74 0CSource: NAHRIM, 2006
  61. 61. Future projection of climate change on MalaysiaPotential yield of Agriculture (rice) in Malaysia:– The average potential yield of rice varies is about 10 tons ha-1in the tropics and over 13 tons ha-1 in the region (Yoshida,1981).– The actual farm yields in Malaysia vary from 3-5 tons ha-1, (i.e.potential yield in Malaysia per ha-1 is 7.2 tons (Singh et al1996)).1996)).– The development rates of rice crop were accelerated inresponse to an increase in CO2 concentration from 160 ppm(parts per million) to 900 ppm.Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:– It is evident that the average response to an increase ofpotential yields of about 10kg/ha/ppm CO2 or about 15kg/ha/ppm CO2. However the negative effects occur in unexpectedhigh (>35oC) or low temperature (Penning de Vries, 1993).
  62. 62. Future projection of climate change on MalaysiaUnexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:– The rice yield is negatively correlated with high (>35oC)temperature during the reproductive phase (NRS, 2001).– The average temperature in rice-growing areas in Malaysia isabout 26oC. An examination of the current climate changescenario under different future climate change indicates thatabout 26oC. An examination of the current climate changescenario under different future climate change indicates thattemperature above 26oC declines grain mass of 4.4 % per 1oCrise (Tashiro and Wardlaw, 1989) and grain yield declines asmuch as 9.6 to 10% (Baker and Allen, 1993).– Singh et al. (1996) found on rice production in Malaysia that adecline of rice yield between 4.6 to 6.1% per 1oC under thepresent CO2 level.
  63. 63. Vulnerability to climate changeVulnerability to climate change
  64. 64. Who is vulnerable to climate changeVulnerability is a function of three key factors:– Exposure to climate change risks;– Sensitivity to changes in climate conditions; and– Adaptive capacity to cope with potential climate risks or actualhazardshazardsVulnerability applies to countries, regions, economic sectors,individual etc.Vulnerability indicates an exposure to potential risks withouthaving adequate capacity to cope with or adapt to changes inthe environment
  65. 65. Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions ofpeople, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas.Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area witha sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lackof adaptive capacityVulnerability to climate change impactsprojectedpresent
  66. 66. Expected impacts on poor regionsPeople exposed to increased water stress by 2020:120 millions to 1.2 billion in Asia75 to 250 millions in Africa12 to 81 millions in Latin AmericaPossible yield reduction in agriculture:50% by 2020 in some African countries30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia30% by 2080 in Latin AmericaCrop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa
  67. 67. Developing countries are the most vulnerableto climate change• Impacts are worse - already more flood and droughtprone and a large share of the economy is in climatesensitive sectors• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,institutional and technological capacity and access toknowledgeknowledge• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionatelyupon the poorest countries and the poorest personswithin countries, exacerbating inequities in health statusand access to adequate food, clean water and otherresources.• Net market sector effects are expected to be negativein most developing countries
  68. 68. Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climatechange by sub-regions in AsiaSource: IPCC 2007
  69. 69. Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006
  70. 70. Most Vulnerable States in Malaysia: HardcoreMost Vulnerable States in Malaysia: HardcorePoverty and Climate ChangePoverty and Climate ChangeStatesHouseholdSizePercentageof HardcorePovertyIncidenceProjectedTemperatureChangeProjectedRainfallChangeTerengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 0C+ 32.8 %Terengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 CPerlis 4.2 1.7 +1.80 0C+ 6.2 %Kelantan 5.2 1.3+1.88 0C+ 32.8 %Kedah 4.6 1.3+1.80 0C + 6.2 %Most Vulnerable peoples are the poor and hardcore poorSource: NAHRIM, 2006; Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006
  71. 71. Key vulnerabilities in Asia-PacificAgriculture and food supplyDecrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central &South Asia by 2050Water managementDecrease of freshwater availability affecting morethan a billion people by 2050than a billion people by 2050Human healthEndemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoealdisease and exacerbation of abundance / toxicity ofcholera in South AsiaCoastal areas and small islandsSea-level rise, coastal erosion and inundation willcompromise the socio-economic well-being of islandsand heavily-populated megadeltas
  72. 72. Adaptation and mitigationAdaptation and mitigation
  73. 73. Adaptation in the agricultural sector• What is Adaptation?– The adaptation involves developing ways to protect people andplaces by reducing their vulnerability to climate pattern.– Agricultural adaptation options could be grouped as:(a) technological developments;(a) technological developments;(b) government programs;(c) farm production practice; and(d) farm financial management.
  74. 74. Adaptation in the agricultural sector• (a) Technological developments– Technological adaptations could be developed through researchprogramme undertaken. These includes:1. Resource management innovations (e.g. water managementinnovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address riskof moisture deficiency)innovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address riskof moisture deficiency)2. Crop development( crop varieties tolerant to changing climaticconditions)3. Weather and climate information systems (e.g. early warningsystem, daily and seasonal weather forecasts)
  75. 75. Adaptation in the agricultural sector• (b) Government programs– Government programs are institutional responses to the economicrisks associated with climate change and have the potential toinfluence farm-level risk management strategies. These includes:1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy and1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy andinsurance programs wrt to climate related loss of crop yield)2.Resource management programs( water res use & mgtstrategies wrt changing climatic conditions)
  76. 76. Adaptation in the agricultural sector• (c) Farm production practice– Farm production practices (i.e. diversify crop types and varieties,land use pattern, irrigation etc.) involve changes in farm operationalpractices, which may be stimulated or informed by governmentprograms or industry initiatives. These includes:1. Farm production (diversify crop type & varieties to suit climaticchanges)changes)2. Land Use (change location of production to address risks wrtclimate change)3. Irrigation (to address moisture deficiency wrt climate change)4. Timing of operations (change to address changingduration/season due to climate change)
  77. 77. Adaptation in the agricultural sector• (d) Farm financial management– Farm financial adaptations involve decisions with respect to cropinsurance, crop shares and futures, income stabilization programs,household income( invest in crop shares & futures to reduce risksof climate change income loss)– Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses using– Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses usingfarm income strategies such as both private and governmentsupported to reduce the risk of climate-related income loss whichmight support and incentive programs greatly influence farmfinancial management decisions (e.g. participate in incomestabilization prog. to reduce risk of income loss due to climaticconditions and variability)
  78. 78. Adaptation and mitigation strategies• Collection and conservation of germplasm• Breeding and development of climate ready varieties– Wide adaptation– Multiple resistance to diseases• Promotion of alternative crops• Promotion of alternative crops• Altering timing of crops• Integrated crop pests management• Integration of indigenous knowledge and modernscience
  79. 79. • Conservation of traditional livestock breeds• Weather index crop insurance schemes– provide a safety net to mitigate risk for subsistencefarmers– provides compensation to smallholder farmersAdaptation and mitigation strategies– provides compensation to smallholder farmersclimate extremes• Availability of reliable climate information• Appropriate policies• Financial resources• Awareness creation and capacity building
  80. 80. Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector• Availability of reliable climate information– Integration of agricultural models with seasonalclimate prediction models– Translate seasonal climate forecasts into usefulinformation• Appropriate policies• Appropriate policies• Financial resources• Awareness creation and capacity building
  81. 81. Mitigation• What is Mitigation?– Mitigation involves attempts or mechanisms to slow the process ofglobal climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere and such mechanisms that absorb carbon dioxidefrom the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots.– Mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, willprimarily be addressed through greater resource efficiencyprimarily be addressed through greater resource efficiencyincluding:1. Improving energy efficiency performance of new and existingbuildings and influencing behavior of occupants2. Reducing the need to travel and ensuring good accessibility to publicand other sustainable modes of transport3. Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks4. Encouraging development and use of renewable energy etc…
  82. 82. Stabilisation levels(ppm CO2-eq)Range of GDPreduction(%)Reduction ofaverage annual GDPgrowth rates(percentage pts)445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12Costs of mitigation in 2030Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3%decrease of GDP in 2030535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06
  83. 83. • What did we observe from climate change impacts fromAsia and Asia Pacific Region, particularly for Malaysia?– Temperature rise and its impacts in the nearest future.– Initial indication and the effects of climate change on agriculture.– Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture– Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculturesector and poverty groups.– Policy challenges in the agriculture on the way towards adequateand smooth adaptation.– Need for partnership between govt. & private sector and NGOs forsuccess. It must be clearly understood that government alonecannot carry out the tasks identified in this document. Success willonly be achieved through the total involvement of the private andnongovernmental sectors.
  84. 84. Stabilization scenariosStabilizationlevel(ppm CO2-eq)Global meantemp.increase(ºC)Year CO2needs to peakChange in globalCO2 emissions in2050(% of 2000emissions)emissions)445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 -85 to -50490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 -60 to -30535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 -30 to +5590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 +10 to +60
  85. 85. Regulations and standardsAppropriate energy infrastructure investmentsResearch, development and demonstrationKey mitigation instruments, policies & practicesRegulations and standardsTaxes and chargesCarbon pricing
  86. 86. Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution- Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigationcosts up to a factor of 3 to 4More employment- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-yearsMain co-benefits of mitigation- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-yearsof employment per 1 million US$ investment (overten years); while coal industry generates only 4Increased energy securityMitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offseta substantial fraction of mitigation costs
  87. 87. Conclusion
  88. 88. Some implications for global foodsecurityFood scarcity and the resulting higher food prices areBy the end of the century, hundred of millions ofpeople could be forced from their native land by risingsea levels, extreme events, floods and faminesFood scarcity and the resulting higher food prices arepushing poverty further in poor countriesAdaptation is necessary to cope with the impacts ofalready changing climateAgricultural adaptation to climate change otherwiseproductivity is projected to decline pushing more peopleto food insecurity
  89. 89. Role and limits of adaptationAdaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting fromthe warming which is already unavoidable due to pastemissionsClimate change requires forward-looking investmentClimate change requires forward-looking investmentand planning responses that go beyond short-termresponses to current climate variabilityBut adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projectedeffects of climate change
  90. 90. “Delayed emission reductions significantlyconstrain the opportunities to achieve lowerstabilization levels and increase the risk of moresevere climate change impacts”The need for urgent mitigationsevere climate change impacts”- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
  91. 91. Key climate change events
  92. 92. UNFCCC (1992)“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legalinstruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve,in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention,stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at alevel that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with theclimate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frameclimate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-framesufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, toensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economicdevelopment to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
  93. 93. Bali Roadmap (2007)“Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will berequired the Convention launched a comprehensiveprocess to enable the full, effective and sustainedimplementation of the Convention, now, up to andimplementation of the Convention, now, up to andbeyond 2012, by addressing policy approaches andpositive incentives […].”
  94. 94. Copenhagen Accord (2009)Commitment to keep the rise in average temperaturebelow 2°CCall for international measurement, reporting andverification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and financeverification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and finance$30bn fund for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020But no binding agreement and targets foremission reductions
  95. 95. CoP 16 to UNFCCC in Cancun, Mexico (2010)Hope to make legally binding agreement to keep the risein average temperature below 2°C by all parties to theUNFCCCFurther binding agreement and targets for emissionFurther binding agreement and targets for emissionreductions by the developed world under Kyoto protocolfor the period of beyond 2012
  96. 96. Key elements for an ambitious bindingagreementEnsuring global GHG emissions peak by 2015 andconcentrations fall to 350 ppmEmission-reduction targets of at least 40% below 1990levels by 2020 for developed countrieslevels by 2020 for developed countriesNew global climate finance mechanismStronger compliance and enforcement mechanisms

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