East timor rail master plan slsh
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East timor rail master plan slsh

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    East timor rail master plan slsh East timor rail master plan slsh Presentation Transcript

    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANPRESENTED BYLAFAEK BESI LDA.DEVELOPMENT COMPANYDili, Timor-Lestebesugao@yahoo.com LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN 124° 125° 126° 127° Wetar Island I N D O N E S I A 10° 10° Romang Island TIMOR- LESTE Atauro Biquele a i t Island Alor Atauro S t r Island Berau t a r W e Cape Tei Lautém Com Laivai Tutuala Rantar Maínal Cape Cutchá Jaco Baucau Island Manatuto Bucóli Fuiloro Island Metinaro Laga Los Palos DILI Vermasse l Seica Liquiça DILI Lacló Laleia BAUCAU Luro LAUTEM Maubara Venilale Cape Bazartete Quelicai Baquia Corimbala LIQUIÇA Railaco clo MANATUTO AILEU La Uato Carabau Loré Cape de Loré Ermera Ossu Iliomar Laclubar Lacluta Fatu Beso Aileu Savu Sea Atabae ERMERA Turiscai VIQUEQUE Uatolari Aliambata Letetoho Maubisse Barique Viqueque n Tata Mai Lau Sahe BOBONARO (2963 m) Hato Builico Bé Aco Batugade Maliana MANUFAHI Fato Berliu Ainaro Cie Cape Deilubún 9° Same r Umaboco 9° Bobonaro d e Alas AINARO n l a Mape Sacato Hatudo Oecussi s Loloto Betano I Fatolulic COVA LIMA Cape Calétec OECUSSI r Fohorem Kitrana Nítibe Oé Silo o Tilomar Suai m 127° Passabe i Cape Tafara T To Timor Sea TIMOR-LESTE Naikliu I N D O N E S I A SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS DISTRICT CAPITALS 0 10 20 30 Kilometers NATIONAL CAPITAL 0 10 20 30 Miles RIVERS 8° MAIN ROADSJANUARY 2005 To IBRD 33496 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. Kuala The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information DISTRICT BOUNDARIES Lumpur shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 124° 125° 126° LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 2 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN 1. CAPTION 2. RATIONALE 3. NETWORK 4. TOURISM 5. ECONOMIC FRAME 6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME 7. COMPONENTS 8. FINANCE 9. COST ESTIMATES 10. SISTER PROJECTS LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 3 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANCAPTIONA ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EAST-TIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER ANDCARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.THEME“Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no laterthan 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ...Timor-Leste’s tradition as a rural economy will have changedmarkedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urbanareas, where the service economy flourishes” LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 4 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANRATIONALEIT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDINGBETTER THAN ‘FREEDOM FROM WANT’ LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNGPOPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUTAN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS.TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO 1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE 2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS 3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTUREAS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING: RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 5 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANTHE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME ANDPACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATEDRURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEWWILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRYAND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERSKNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD.INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THEDEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEMAND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN.INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND,SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAYOF LIFE.WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY. LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 6 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANRoads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roadsare the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% offreight.BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an un-maintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to bein fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poorcondition.THEN, RAIL ... 1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentally polluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer. 2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. rail trains consume ±80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times more efficient. 3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydro sites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks. LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 7 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN ...4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working in cities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups and rural communities.5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the Electrified Double Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimated the EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, above the benchmark 12% for transport projects.6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costs of the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability.7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that will greatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth).8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains and locomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs than steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be less technically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier and cheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives. LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 8 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANNETWORKCENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOSWEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANOEAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARIto move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster andsafer conditionsto airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 9 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANTOURISMLavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurlstaggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world classtravelers.On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historiccantonments are ideal stopovers.1 Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 10 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANImages of the World: East Timor - West of Dili to the Indonesian border: Maubara fort 4/29/12 3:55 PM Send this Photo as a Postcard: Photo by Ludo Kuipers, Sun Dec 26, 2004 Maubarahttp://worldpics.com.au/East_Timor/west/slides/2004122604.html Page 2 of 8 LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 11 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANECONOMIC FRAME“Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleumfund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The PetroleumFund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of 2010, which is up from $5.38billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion bythe end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.”“Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivityin agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads,electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enablingenvironment, and a quantum increase in the country’s skills base.”“Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recentlylaunched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending tobe partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.” LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 12 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN...“Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nation’spetroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed(e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates ofreturn). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as thisoffers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is onconcessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that thecost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) andexpands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important tocrowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.”The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only DevelopingAsian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook,April 2012). LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 13 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN Chenab Bridge Project (KRP) LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 14 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANDEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEDemographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timoresepopulation should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlierprojections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growthscenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annualpopulation growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesias current populationdensity by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent stillyounger than 15 by 2025.Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. Theurban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster thanthe rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its presentsize. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. Therural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025. World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008) LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 15 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANPROJECT COMPONENTS 1. RAILS (CLDB) 2. EMBANKMENTS (CLDB) 3. BRIDGES (CLDB) 4. TUNNELS (CLDB) 5. STATIONS (CLDB) 6. FIELD LINES (CLDB) 7. ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE) 8. NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.) 9. POWER STATIONS (GOVT.) 10. ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.) LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 16 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANFINANCECOMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARESNotional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights andprofit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census.COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDSCLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bankwith the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interestpayments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock ownercompanies.LEASEHOLD RIGHTSAll land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it isheld on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rightsare used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds). LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 17 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANCOST ESTIMATES500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bnHere are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway tradepress. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipmentcosts, project and financing costs.Complete Rail ProjectsRailway> Date Type of System Cost per km DistanceMadrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line €9.57 million 304 kmsYichang-Wanzhou, China 2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 kmsHaikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10.0 million 308 kms LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 18 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANYichang–Wanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will beopened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours fromWuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hoursfrom Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before).Yichang–Wanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers(234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province toWanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joinsShanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai,Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing andChengdu along the way. Because of the complexgeologic conditions, Yichang–Wanzhou Railway isregarded as the most difficult railway project inChina. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which istwice as much as that of Qinghai–Tibet Railway. Thetotal length of tunnels and bridges is about 279kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the wholeline, hence the railway is said to be “the museum oftunnels and bridges”.www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latest LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 19 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANSISTER PROJECTSINDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building aline to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project(KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed toprovide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu andKashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road.Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels.The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn).MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), whichruns through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The projectinvolves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near theexisting single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis.The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system inMalaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportationsystem in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway.Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification isMalaysias largest and costliest railway project. LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 20 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLANMATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU? EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN, CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY! LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 21 /22
    • EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN Uatolari LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 22 /22