Developing a long term policy framework for low carbon transport

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Presentation by Gena Gibson, senior consultant at Ricardo-AEA, to a Chinese transport ministry delegation. There is no silver bullet to achieve sustainable low-carbon transport - a range of policies …

Presentation by Gena Gibson, senior consultant at Ricardo-AEA, to a Chinese transport ministry delegation. There is no silver bullet to achieve sustainable low-carbon transport - a range of policies and measures must be used. This presentation gives an overview of Ricardo-AEA's sustainable transport model (SULTAN) and the possible policy frameworks that could be used to reduce transport GHG emissions.

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  • 1. Ricardo-AEA © Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com Gena Gibson – senior consultant A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport 低碳交通的长期政策框架
  • 2. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence2 Cutting transport emissions in Europe 欧洲减排政策 Policy options • Reduce the GHG intensity of fuels • Tighten car CO2 emission standards • Introduce CO2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles • Increase fuel taxes • “Polluter pays” • Teach efficient driving techniques • Reduce speed limits • Spatial planning measures 具体政策 • 降低燃料对温室气体的排放 • 提高汽车尾气二氧化碳排放标准 • 对货车及重型车辆推广二氧化碳排放额 目标 • 提高燃料税额 • “污染责任承包” • 培训减排驾驶技巧 • 降低公路限速 • 有效计划空间利用 A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport 低碳交通的长期政策框架
  • 3. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence3 Ricardo-AEA Modelling 减排方法 Policy scenario GHG emissions Co-benefits Costs SULTAN scenario analysis tool Transport modes (7 passenger, 6 freight) All major modes of transport covered Powertrain technologies All major current and future options for vehicle drivetrains Energy carriers / fuels Each powertrain technology can use up to 3 Behavioural & operational Vehicle technologies •Engine technology • Non-engine technology •Electric and hybrid technology • Biofuels • Hydrogen fuel cells • Infrastructure & spatial planning • Intelligent transport systems • Speed & traffic management • Shift to more efficient vehicles 日常运作 车辆技术 •引擎技术 •非引擎技术 •电力及混动技术 •生物燃料 •氢气燃料电池 •有效计划基础设施与空间 •智能化交通系统 •速度与车流管理 •向低排放车辆转型
  • 4. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence4 Results from scenario analysis 实际案例分析 百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体 没有政策控制的二氧 化碳总排放
  • 5. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence5 Results from scenario analysis 实际案例分析 百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体 Reduction of fuel GHG Vehicle efficiency Demand efficiency 减少燃料产生的温室气体 减少车辆产生的温室气体 排放限额交易利益驱使 (有效需求)
  • 6. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence6 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V2-b LNG Marine Fuels Kerosene CNG LPG Hydrogen Electricity Diesel Gasoline BAU-a total 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V5-b LNG Marine Fuels Kerosene CNG LPG Hydrogen Electricity Diesel Gasoline BAU-a total Weaker/stronger vehicle efficiency standards could mean under/over achieving targets by up to 100 MtCO2 Results from scenario analysis 实际案例分析
  • 7. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence7 Marginal abatement cost curves 边际减排成本线 Cost per ton CO2 reduction 减少每吨二氧 化碳的成本 0 Annual CO2 reduction 年度二氧化碳减排 Negative cost 负成本 Low cost 低成本 High cost 高成本 • Analyse costs and emission reductions of different packages of measures • Analyse interaction between different options • Prioritize options in order of cost effectiveness • 分析不同政策的减排量与相关成本 • 分析不同政策之间的相互联系 • 根据性价比排列政策效率
  • 8. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence8 UK road transport 英国道路交通 Used to develop UK’s Climate Change Act 英国《气候变化法案》已实施减排措施 混合动力 车辆 电动车辆 生物燃料
  • 9. © Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com T: E: W: +44 (0)1235 753526 Gena.Gibson@ricardo-aea.com www.ricardo-aea.com Gena Gibson Senior Consultant – Sustainable Transport