LSM Forecast

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Forecast for the Living Standards Measure in South Africa – produced: 2007/8

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LSM Forecast

  1. 1. LSM Forecasts Sources: SAARF and UNISA
  2. 2. Population trends, 1900+ South Africa
  3. 3. Population outcomes, 2001 – 2021 South Africa
  4. 4. Population trends <ul><li>Minor increase in population over next 14 years </li></ul><ul><li>Number of deaths to increase further – AIDS. </li></ul><ul><li>Slowdown in population growth rates expected – HIV/AIDS and TFRs. </li></ul><ul><li>Aging population – less youth, more aged </li></ul><ul><li>Differential impact of AIDS on EAP. </li></ul><ul><li>Population by 2010 about 47 million, about 50 million by 2020. </li></ul><ul><li>Several unknowns: future of HIV/AIDS, immigration, AIDS TFR impacts and GT/WC. </li></ul>
  5. 5. SAARF LSM – National (1993 LSMs) % Sample size: 14 498 (’94), 35 069 (’00), 24 813 (’06) Population, all South Africans 16+: 24 539 000 (’94), 28 488 000 (’00), 30 903 000 (’06)
  6. 6. Previous growth LSM 5-8 2005 vs. 2000
  7. 7. 1993 vs Universal LSM explanation Universal 1993 LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8 LSM 9 LSM10 LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
  8. 8. Forecast for LSM-Groups: 2005 - 2015 Total people
  9. 9. Summary <ul><li>Biggest growth can be expected from LSM 5-6 segment (households earning between R2500 and R6 999) </li></ul><ul><li>More than two million people will join this segment over the next ten years </li></ul><ul><li>This segment contributes 28.82% (R51.9 million per month) of total food spend </li></ul><ul><li>LSM 4-7 collectively contribute 48.46% of total food spend </li></ul><ul><li>LSM 4-7 grew by 773 000 people in one year only (Dec 05 to Dec 06) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Summary – From ABSA Vehicle Finance report <ul><li>The emergence of a new class of consumer is evident in the lower LSM categories (not black diamonds) </li></ul><ul><li>The middle market categories (LSM 7,9 & 10) have shown growth </li></ul><ul><li>LSM categories 6 and 7 are the feeding ground for the emerging black middle class (Black diamonds) </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicles bought by black customers increased 42% in the last two years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The black market accounts for just 20% of the total vehicle market – huge opportunity! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Vehicle ownership increased rapidly for income under R15 000 per month </li></ul>
  11. 11. Thank You.

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