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Nov 4 2008 - Proflle of a Progressive Electorate?
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Nov 4 2008 - Proflle of a Progressive Electorate?

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A data and graphic view of participation of voters by target demographic in the 2008 election. ...

A data and graphic view of participation of voters by target demographic in the 2008 election.

The analysis focuses on illustrating the degree of shift in turnout, uplift in engagement, and increased diversity inspired by the 2008 campaign season.

Exit polls are used in this analysis. The presentation lays groundwork for a subsequent examination of accuracy of 2008 exit poll vs. 2010 polling in predicting 2010 midterm election turnout, demographics, and result.

More in: News & Politics
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  • 1.
    • Data Views of the 08 Electorate
    • Foundations of Movement?
    content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls
  • 2.
    • A mix shift?
    • A move to the left?
    • A move to the right?
    • A growing center?
    • Rise of the youth?
    • Expanded electorate?
    content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls
  • 3. Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly /conservatives
  • 4.
    • A shift left, right, or center?
    • 5% increase in votes from liberals for Obama vs. Kerry
    • 11% increase in votes from moderates for Obama vs. Kerry
    • 31% increase in voters identifying as conservative
    • Obama improved against Kerry’s number in every ideological category
    • The dramatic growth in conservatives appears to be primarily black and Latin republicans shifting to support Obama
  • 5. Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly/blackturnout
  • 6.
    • Rise of the Youth Vote?
    • 18 to 29 year old voters increased in number, but still lagged black voters in this measure of engagement.
    • Black voters went to the polls at a rate 10% greater than their numbers in the voting age population.
    • Though decreasing in number, white voters continued to show high engagement
    • Contribution is the ratio between a group’s % of the overall voting age population vs. % of votes cast in an election.
    • It is an indication of civic engagement
  • 7. Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly/LatinVote
  • 8.
    • A mix shift?
    • 23% change in the number of blacks voting for Obama vs. Kerry
    • 25% change in 18 – 29 year old voters
    • 31% change in Latin voters
    • 3% change in white voters for Obama vs. Kerry
    • Mix shift illustrates a change in vote. It measures the combined impact of new voters and those shifting their vote from one party to another
    • 60% of Increase in Latin votes shifted from Bush 04 to Obama in 08.
  • 9. Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly /turnout
  • 10.
    • An expanded electorate?
    • Participation (the number of people voting) in targeted demographics increased across the board.
    • Black voters increased by 17%, Latin by 13%, youth by 8%, and Asian by 2%
    • Youth vote increased but lagged Latin and black voters in this measure of participation
    • The total number of whites participating in the election declined, while whites voting democratic increased
    • Overall participation in terms of people voting, increased by 2.9M or 2%., 125M in 08 vs.122M in 04.
    • Targeted demographics are those identified as strategic or underrepresented in past elections .
  • 11.
    • Data Views of the 08 Electorate
    • Foundations of Movement?
    content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls
    • Platform for Collaboration?
    • The increase in engagement across targeted demographic groups is indicative of the success of the Obama campaign strategy
    • Turnout did not increase to as great a degree as forecast.
    • http:// bit.ly /participation
    • Will increase in engagement create a sustainable new base for collaboration beyond this election?
    • Update: profiling the 2008 Electorate
    • http://slidesha.re/3mSPxQ