State of the Climate 2011 (NOAA)

Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center,and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change ResearchJessica Blunden, PhD, Scientist, ERT Inc., Climate Monitoring Branch,NOAA’s National Climatic Data CenterKate Willett, PhD, Senior Scientist, Met Office Hadley CentreMartin Jeffries, PhD, Research Professor of Geophysics, GeophysicalInstitute, University of Alaska FairbanksTom Peterson, PhD, Principal Scientist, NOAA’s National Climatic DataCenter, and President of the World Meteorological Organization Commissionfor ClimatologyPeter Stott, PhD, Senior Scientist, Met Office Hadley Centre

• 22nd annual State of the Climate report • Surveys the changing state and the behavior of the physical climate system• Now tracks 43 global‐scale climate indicators 378 authors from 48 countries 17 editors on 3 continentsJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 2

• Report added new indicators to better understand changes in the global climate• Same bottom line conclusion – climate continues to changeJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 3

©Jonathan Wood/Getty Images — Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, January 2011La Niña contributed to weather and climate patterns around the world in 2011 Major flooding occurred in Queensland, Australia ©Jakob Dall Photography — Wajir, Kenya, July 2011 Oceanic Niño IndexDrought in East Africa affected millions of peopleJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 4

• Many extreme events occurred at Thailand flooding regional and local levels• La Niña contributed to some but not all ©iStockPhoto.com/phototrav of these events – Southern United States and northern Mexico: Historic drought – Above‐average North Atlantic hurricane season – Below‐average Eastern North Pacific season – Brazil: Devastating floods – Thailand: Worst floods since 1942 – United States: Record destruction by tornadoes Joplin Missouri USA Tornado – North Korea: Longest cold snap since 1945 – Central and southern Europe: Worst heat wave since 2003 – Australia: Struck by most powerful tropical cyclone, Yasi, since 1918 NOAA NOAAJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 5

Global average surface temperature was higher than the 1981 to 2010 average Carbon dioxide Upper Ocean Heat Content Global Temperature Carbon dioxide Globally averaged carbon dioxide Globally averaged heat stored in Four data sets show global surface concentrations in the atmosphere the top 2,300 feet of the oceans temperatures continue to rise; surpassed 390 parts per million for the was the highest since records temperature has increased at a rate first time. began in 1993. of about 0.31ºF per decade since 1980.July 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 6

2011: La Niña in the eastern equatorial Pacific kept global surface temperaturescooler during the year compared with the record warmth of 2010, but still remainedabove the average of the past 30 yearsLong-term trend: Temperatures at the Earth’s surface and lower atmospherecontinue to warm, while the stratosphere continues to coolJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 7

2011 was wetter than average over land but relatively dry over the oceans The Water CycleDepartures from 1992-2010 average over oceans and 1961-1990 average over land (millimeters)In 2011, oceans were saltier in already drier areas and fresher in already rainy areas, indicating an increase in the global water cycle July 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 8

• “Arctic Amplification”: Average temperature has Average temperature over the past decade increased by about 3.6ºF since the mid‐1960s, is warmer than the 1971–2000 average. more than 2 times faster than at lower latitudes• Barrow, Alaska had record 86 consecutive summer days with minimum temperatures at or above freezing• Record high temperatures were recorded at 20 m below the surface at all permafrost observatories on Alaska’s North Slope Degrees Celsius • In March 2011, the lowest ozone concentrations on record led to elevated UV radiation levels at the surface Ozone Concentration (Dobson Units)July 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 9

• September sea ice extent was 2nd smallest since the satellite era began Sept. 2011• Old ice (4–5 years) reached record low: 81% below average March: when maximum ice extent occurs September: when minimum ice extent occurs • Greenland ice sheet: Above‐average air temperatures and declining albedo (reflectivity) caused extreme melting and mass loss in 2011July 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 10

• Sea surface temperature in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas were 2nd warmest on record, behind only 2007 • Since 1982, tundra greenness has increased by 15.5% in the North American Arctic and by 8.2% in the Eurasian ArcticJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 11

• Long‐term trends show that climate indicators expected to increase in a warming world are continuing to increase and those that are expected to decrease are continuing to decrease.• The annual global temperature was cooler than in 2010, but was still one of the 15 warmest years on record. The Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the globe.• There were many extreme weather and climate events around the globe in 2011. La Niña contributed to many, but not all, of these events.July 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 12

• Determining the causes of extreme events is difficult • A goal of this paper is to foster the growth of the science • Cannot say a particular event was or was not caused by climate change • Can explain how the odds of such events have changed in response to global warmingJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 13

• By wide margins the hottest and driest growing season on record • Was associated with La Niña conditions • Such a heatwave is now about 20 times more likely during La Niña years than in the 1960sJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 copyright Met Office © Crown 14

• The odds of the cold December 2010 temperatures have halved as a result of human‐induced climate change • The warm November 2011 temperatures are now about 60 times more likely than in the 1960s © Crown copyright Met OfficeJuly 2012 15

• Climate change has altered the odds of some of the events that have occurred• Some have become more likely• Some have become less likely• Natural variability also plays an important role• We hope that this report will help foster the growth of attribution science needed to make assessments such as this more comprehensive ©Jonathan Wood/Getty Images — Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, January 2011 ©iStockphoto.com/Kirk Lockhart Flooding in Australia Texas creek bed in droughtJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 16

• “State of the Climate in 2011” report: – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams‐state‐of‐the‐climate/2011.php • Online Report Highlights: – http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/state‐of‐the‐climate‐in‐2011‐ highlights • BAMS article on Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective: – http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams‐sotc/2011‐peterson‐et‐ al.pdf • Slides from today’s webinar: – http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams‐sotc/2011/webinar‐ briefing‐slides.pdfJuly 2012 State of the Climate in 2011 17

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State of the Climate 2011 (NOAA)

by Andrew Revkin on Jul 10, 2012

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