To Compare and Contrast, Here's Near-Final IPCC Climate Science Summary

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This is the last circulated draft of the "Summary for Policy Makers" of the Physical Science section of the fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It's useful to have on hand …

This is the last circulated draft of the "Summary for Policy Makers" of the Physical Science section of the fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It's useful to have on hand to compare and contrast with what emerges in Stockholm on 27 September. The IPCC site is http://ipcc.ch
Here's a Dot Earth reader on IPCC history and new steps: http://j.mp/ipcchist

Here's the full text of my (short and simple) 1992 book on global warming, which describes the early days of the panel:

Views of Global Warming in 1992 and Now http://nyti.ms/TZH98r

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  • 1. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-1 Total pages: 31 1 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis2 3 Summary for Policymakers4 5 Drafting Authors: Lisa Alexander (Australia), Simon Allen (Switzerland/New Zealand), Nathaniel L.6 Bindoff (Australia), Francois-Marie Breon (France), John Church (Australia), Ulrich Cubasch (Germany),7 Seita Emori (Japan), Piers Forster (UK), Pierre Friedlingstein (UK/Belgium), Nathan Gillett (Canada),8 Jonathan Gregory (UK), Dennis Hartmann (USA), Eystein Jansen (Norway), Ben Kirtman (USA), Reto9 Knutti (Switzerland), Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla (India), Peter Lemke (Germany), Jochem Marotzke10 (Germany), Valerie Masson-Delmotte (France), Gerald Meehl (USA), Igor Mokhov (Russia), Shilong Piao11 (China), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Qin Dahe (China), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), David12 Randall (USA), Monika Rhein (Germany), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Christopher Sabine (USA), Drew Shindell13 (USA), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Lynne Talley (USA), David Vaughan (UK), Shang-Ping Xie14 (USA)15 16 Draft Contributing Authors (list will be updated): Myles Allen (UK), Olivier Boucher (France), Don17 Chambers (USA), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter Clark (USA), Matthew Collins (UK), Josefino Comiso18 (USA), Richard Feely (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Jan Fuglestvedt (Norway), Jens Hesselbjerg19 Christensen (Denmark), Gregory Johnson (USA), Georg Kaser (Austria), Vladimir Kattsov (Russia), Albert20 Klein Tank (Netherlands), Corinne Le Quere (UK), Viviane Vasconcellos de Menezes (Australia/Brazil),21 Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Tim Osborn (UK), Antony Payne (UK), Judith Perlwitz (USA), Scott Power22 (Australia), Stephen Rintoul (Australia), Joeri Rogelj (Switzerland), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Michael23 Schulz (Germany), Jan Sedláček (Switzerland), Peter Stott (UK), Rowan Sutton (UK), Peter Thorne24 (USA/Norway/UK), Donald Wuebbles (USA)25 26 Date of Draft: 7 June 201327 28 29 30
  • 2. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-2 Total pages: 31 Introduction1 2 The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report considers new evidence of past3 and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses ranging from4 observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and5 simulations using climate models.6 7 This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) follows the structure of the Working Group I report. The narrative is8 supported by a series of overarching assessment conclusions highlighted in shaded boxed statements. Main9 sections of the Summary for Policymakers are introduced with a brief chapeau in italics.10 11 The degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the author teams’ evaluations of12 underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of confidence and, when possible,13 probabilistically with a quantified likelihood. Confidence in the validity of a finding is based on the type,14 amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert15 judgment) and the degree of agreement1 . Probabilistic estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a16 finding are based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment2 . Where17 appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers. (See18 Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details)19 20 The basis for substantive paragraphs in this Summary for Policymakers can be found in the chapter sections21 of the underlying report and in the Technical Summary. These references are given in curly brackets.22 23 24 25 Observed Changes in the Climate System26 27 Observations of the climate system are based on direct physical and biogeochemical measurements, remote28 sensing from ground stations and satellites; information derived from paleoclimate archives provides a long-29 term context. Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century, and30 paleoclimate reconstructions extend the record of some quantities back hundreds to millions of years.31 Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the variability and long-term changes in the atmosphere, the32 ocean, the cryosphere, and the land surface.33 34 35 Since 1950, changes have been observed throughout the climate system: the atmosphere and ocean have36 warmed, the extent and volume of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen (see Figures SPM.137 and SPM.2). Many of these observed changes are unusual or unprecedented on time scales of decades to38 millennia. {2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 4.2–4.7, 5.3, 5.5–5.7, 13.2}39 40 41 42 1 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details). 2 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely: 95– 100%, more likely than not >50–100%, and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details).
  • 3. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-3 Total pages: 31 Atmosphere1 2 Each of the last three decades has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850 and the first decade of3 the 21st century has been the warmest (see Figure SPM.1). Analyses of paleoclimate archives indicate that in4 the Northern Hemisphere, the period 1983–2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 8005 years (high confidence) and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).6 {2.4, 5.3}7 8 9 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.1 HERE]10 Figure SPM.1: (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean temperature anomalies from three surface11 temperature data sets (black – HadCRUT4, yellow – MLOST, blue – GISS). Top panel: annual mean values, bottom12 panel: decadal mean values including the estimate of uncertainty for HadCRUT4. Anomalies are relative to the mean of13 1961−1990. (b) Map of the observed temperature change from 1901−2012derived from temperature trends determined14 by linear regression of the MLOST time series. Trends have been calculated only for grid boxes with greater than 70%15 complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Grid boxes where the16 trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. {Figures 2.19–2.21; Figure TS.2}17 18 19 • The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show an increase of 0.8920 [0.69 to 1.08] °C 3 over the period 1901–2012. Over this period almost the entire globe has experienced21 surface warming. (Figure SPM.1). {2.4.3}22 23 • Global mean surface temperature trends exhibit substantial decadal variability, despite the robust multi-24 decadal warming since 1901 (Figure SPM 1). The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998−2012;25 0.05 [−0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (1951−2012; 0.12 [0.08 to26 0.14] °C per decade). (Figure SPM.1) {2.4.3}27 28 • Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi-decadal29 intervals during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950−1250) that were in some regions as warm as in30 the late 20th century. These intervals did not occur as coherently across seasons and regions as the31 warming in the late 20th century (high confidence). {5.3.5, 5.5.1}32 33 • It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled since the34 mid-20th century. There is medium confidence in the rate of change and its vertical structure in the35 Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4.4}36 37 • Because of data insufficiency, confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since38 1901 is low prior to 1950 and medium afterwards. The incomplete records show mixed and non-39 significant long-term trends in global mean changes. Precipitation has increased in the mid-latitude land40 areas of the Northern Hemisphere since 1901 (medium confidence prior to 1950 and high confidence41 afterwards). {2.5.1}42 43 • Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950 (see Table44 SPM.1). It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased and the number of warm45 days and nights has increased on the global scale. In some regions, it is likely that the frequency of heat46 waves has increased. There are likely more land regions where the number of heavy precipitation events47 has increased than where it has decreased. Regional trends vary, but confidence is highest for North48 America with very likely trends towards heavier precipitation events. {2.6.1, 2.6.2; FAQ 2.2}49 3 In the WGI contribution to the AR5, uncertainty is quantified using 90% uncertainty intervals unless otherwise stated. The 90% uncertainty interval, reported in square brackets, is expected to have a 90% likelihood of covering the value that is being estimated. The upper endpoint of the uncertainty interval has a 95% likelihood of exceeding the value that is being estimated and the lower endpoint has a 95% likelihood of being less than that value. A best estimate of that value is also given where available. Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric about the corresponding best estimate.
  • 4. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-4 Total pages: 31 [INSERT TABLE SPM.1 HERE]1 Table SPM.1: Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human2 contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century.3 Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red).4 Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative5 to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new RCP scenarios.6 7 8 Ocean9 10 It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010, and likely between the11 1870s and 1971. Since the 1990s, when sufficient deep-ocean observations have become available to allow12 an assessment, the deep ocean below 3000 m depth has likely warmed. {3.2; Box 3.1; FAQ 3.1}13 14 15 • The ocean warming is largest near the surface and exceeds 0.1°C per decade in the upper 75 m over the16 period 1971−2010. Since AR4, instrumental biases in upper-ocean temperature records have been17 identified and mitigated, reducing spurious decadal variability that was most prominent in the 1970s18 and 1980s. The warming decreases with depth and extends to 2000 m. From 1992 to 2005, no19 significant temperature trends were observed between 2000 and 3000 m depth. Warming below 3000 m20 is largest near the sources of deep and bottom water in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean.21 {3.2.4; FAQ 3.1}22 23 • It is virtually certain that upper ocean (0–700 m) heat content increased during the relatively well-24 sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010. The increase estimated from a linear trend is 17 [15 to 19]25 ∙1022 J. According to some estimates, ocean heat content from 0–700 m increased more slowly during26 2003–2010 than over the previous decade, while ocean heat uptake from 700–2000 m likely continued27 unabated (Figure SPM.2c). {3.2.3, 3.2.4; Box 9.2}28 29 • Ocean warming dominates the change in energy stored in the climate system. Warming of the ocean30 accounts for about 93% of this change between 1971 and 2010. Most of the net energy increase (about31 64%) is stored in the ocean shallower than 700 m. {3.2.3; Box 3.1}32 33 • Regional trends in ocean salinity provide indirect evidence that the pattern of evaporation minus34 precipitation over the oceans has been enhanced since the 1950s (medium confidence). It is very likely35 that regions of high salinity where evaporation dominates have become more saline, while regions of36 low salinity where rainfall dominates have become fresher. {2.5, 3.3.2−3.3.4; 3.5, 3.21; FAQ 3.3}37 38 39 Cryosphere40 41 There is stronger evidence that the ice sheets and glaciers worldwide are losing mass and sea ice cover is42 decreasing in the Arctic, while the Antarctic sea ice cover shows a small increase. This evidence is based on43 more comprehensive and improved observations extending over longer time periods. Northern Hemisphere44 spring snow cover is decreasing and permafrost is thawing. {4.2–4.7}45 46 47 • There is very high confidence that glaciers have continued to shrink and lose mass world-wide, with48 very few exceptions. The rate of mass loss, excluding glaciers on the periphery of the ice sheets, was49 very likely 226 [91 to 361] Gt yr−1 over the period 1971−2009, and very likely 275 [140 to 410] Gt yr−1 50 over the period 1993−2009.4 {4.3.3; Figures 4.9–4.12; Table 4.5; FAQ 4.1}51 52 4 100 Gt yr−1 of ice loss corresponds to about 0.28 mm yr−1 of sea level equivalent.
  • 5. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-5 Total pages: 31 • There is very high confidence that the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost mass during the last two decades.1 The average rate of mass loss has very likely increased from 34 [−6 to 74] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2 2001 to 215 [157 to 274] Gt yr–1 over the period 2002–2011. {4.4.2, 4.4.3}3 4 • There is high confidence that the Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost mass during the last two decades. The5 average rate of mass loss likely increased from 30 [−37 to 97] Gt yr–1 over the period 1992–2001 to 1476 [72 to 221] Gt yr–1 over the period 2002–2011. There is very high confidence that these losses are7 mainly from the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. {4.4.2,8 4.4.3}9 10 11 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.2 HERE]12 Figure SPM.2: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate: (a) Northern Hemisphere March-April13 average snow cover extent, (b) Arctic July-August-September average sea ice extent, (c) change in global mean upper14 ocean heat content normalized to 2006−2010, and relative to the mean of all datasets for 1971, (d) global mean sea level15 relative to the 1900–1905 mean of the longest running dataset, and with all datasets aligned to have the same value in16 1993, the first year of altimetry data. All time-series (coloured lines) show annual values, and where assessed,17 uncertainties are indicated by different shades of grey. See Chapter 2 Supplementary Material 2.SM.5 for a listing of the18 datasets. {Figures 3.2, 3.13, 4.19, and 4.3; FAQ 2.1, Figure 2; Figure TS.1}19 20 21 • The annual mean Arctic sea ice extent decreased over the period 1979–2012 with a rate that was very22 likely in the range of 3.5 to 4.1% per decade. The extent of multi-year sea ice very likely decreased by23 over 11% per decade. The average decrease in decadal mean extent of Arctic sea ice has been most24 rapid in summer and autumn (high confidence), but the extent has decreased in every season, and in25 every successive decade since 1979 (high confidence) (Figure SPM.2b). There is medium confidence26 from reconstructions that summer sea ice retreat and increase in sea surface temperatures in the Arctic27 over the past three decades are anomalous in the perspective of at least the last 2,000 years. {4.2.2,28 5.5.2}29 30 • It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased at a rate of in the range of 1.2 to31 1.8% per decade between 1979 and 2012. There is high confidence that there are strong regional32 differences in this annual rate, with some regions increasing in extent and some decreasing. {4.2.3;33 FAQ 4.2}34 35 • There is very high confidence that Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has decreased since the mid-36 20th century, especially in spring (see Figure SPM.2a). Averaged March and April Northern37 Hemisphere snow cover extent decreased 1.6 [0.8 to 2.4] % per decade over the 1967−2012 period.38 During this period, snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere did not show a statistically39 significant increase in any months. {4.5.2}40 41 • There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early42 1980s, although the rate of increase has varied regionally. The temperature increase for colder43 permafrost was generally greater than for warmer permafrost (high confidence). A significant reduction44 in permafrost thickness and areal extent has occurred in the Russian European North over the period45 1975−2005 (medium confidence). {4.7.2}46 47 48 Sea Level49 50 Global mean sea level has risen by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m over the period 1901−2010 estimated from a linear51 trend , based on tide gauge records and additionally on satellite data since 1993 (see Figure SPM.2d). Based52 on proxy and instrumental data, it is virtually certain that the rate of global mean sea level rise has53 accelerated during the last two centuries. The current centennial rate of global mean sea level rise is54 unusually high in the context of centennial-scale variations over the last two millennia (medium confidence).55 {3.7, 5.6, 13.2}56
  • 6. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-6 Total pages: 31 • It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–1 between1 1901 and 2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr–1 between 1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and satellite altimeter2 data are consistent regarding the higher rate of the latter period. It is likely that similarly high rates3 occurred between 1920 and 1950. {3.7.2, 3.7.3}4 5 • There is very high confidence that the maximum global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher than6 present and high confidence that it did not exceed 10 m above present during the last interglacial period7 (129,000 to 116,000 years ago), when the global mean surface temperature was, with medium8 confidence, not more than 2°C warmer than pre-industrial. This sea level is higher than reported in AR49 owing to more widespread and comprehensive paleoclimate reconstructions. During the last interglacial10 period, the Greenland ice sheet very likely contributed between 1.4 and 4.3 m sea level equivalent,11 implying with medium confidence a contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet to the global mean sea12 level. {5.3.4, 5.6.2}13 14 15 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Quantities16 17 The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by more than 20% since 1958 when systematic18 atmospheric measurements began (see Figure SPM.3), and by about 40% since 1750. The increase is a result19 of human activity, virtually all due to burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, and a small contribution from20 cement production. Present-day concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) substantially21 exceed the range of concentrations recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. The mean rates of22 CO2, CH4 and N2O rise in atmospheric concentrations over the past century are, with very high confidence,23 unprecedented in the last 22,000 years. {2.2, 5.2, 6.2, 6.3}24 25 26 • The concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O have all increased since 1750. There is very27 high confidence that in 2011 they exceeded the preindustrial levels by about 40%, 150%, and 20%,28 respectively. {2.2.1, 6.1, 6.2}29 30 • By 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 365 [335 to31 395] PgC (see 5 ) to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land use change are estimated to have32 released 180 [100 to 260] PgC since 1750. {6.3.1}33 34 • While the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2011 is 545 [460 to 630] PgC, 240 [230 to35 250] PgC have accumulated in the atmosphere. This has increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration36 from 278 [273 to 283] ppm (see 6 ) in 1750 to 390.5 ppm in 2011 (see Figure SPM.3). {2.2.1, 6.3}37 38 • The amount of anthropogenic carbon taken up by the global ocean is estimated at 155 [125 to 185] PgC39 in 2011. Natural terrestrial ecosystems not affected by land use change are estimated to have40 accumulated 150 [60 to 240] PgC since 1750, which is an amount similar to the carbon released from41 deforestation and other land use change. {3.8.1, 6.3}42 43 • It is very likely that oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 results in acidification of the ocean. The pH44 (see 7 ) of seawater has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era, corresponding to a45 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration. {3.8.2; Box 3.2; FAQ 3.2}46 47 48 5 1 Petagram of carbon = 1 PgC = 1015 grams of carbon = 1 Gigatonne of carbon = 1 GtC. This corresponds to 3.67 GtCO2. 6 ppm (parts per million) or ppb (parts per billion, 1 billion = 1,000 million) is the ratio of the number of gas molecules to the total number of molecules of dry air. For example, 300 ppm means 300 molecules of a gas per million molecules of dry air. 7 pH is a measure of acidity: a decrease in pH value means an increase in acidity, i.e., acidification.
  • 7. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-7 Total pages: 31 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.3 HERE]1 Figure SPM.3: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle. Measurements of atmospheric2 concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are from Mauna Loa and South Pole since 1958. Measurements of partial3 pressure of CO2 at the ocean surface are shown from three stations from the Atlantic (29°10′N, 15°30′W – dark4 blue/dark green; 31°40′N, 64°10′W – blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (22°45′N, 158°00′W − light blue/light green),5 along with the measurement of in situ pH, a measure of the acidity of ocean water (smaller pH means greater acidity).6 Full details of the datasets shown here are provided in the underlying report. {Figures 2.1 and 3.17; Figure TS.5}7 8 9 10 Drivers of Climate Change11 12 Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that cause imbalances in the Earth's energy budget are13 drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing 8 (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused by changes14 in these drivers. All RF values are for the industrial era, defined here as 1750 to 2011, unless otherwise15 indicated. Positive RF leads to a warming, negative RF to a cooling. RF is estimated based on in-situ and16 remote observations, properties of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and calculations using numerical models17 representing observed processes. RF of anthropogenic substances can be reported based on emissions or18 atmospheric concentration changes. In this Summary for Policymakers, RF values are based on emissions,19 which provide a more direct link to human activities.20 21 22 Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is positive, and has led to a net uptake of energy by the climate system.23 The increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 makes the largest contribution to net24 radiative forcing, and has also made the largest contribution to the increased anthropogenic forcing in every25 decade since the 1960s. Forcings due to the emission of aerosols and their interactions with clouds continue26 to contribute the largest uncertainty to estimates and interpretations of the Earth’s changing energy budget.27 Changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic forcing contribute only a small fraction to the net radiative28 forcing during the industrial era (see Figure SPM.4). {Box 3.1, 7.5, 8.4, 8.5}29 30 31 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.4 HERE]32 Figure SPM.4: Radiative forcing estimates with respect to 1750 and uncertainties for the main drivers of climate33 change. Values are global average radiative forcing (RF, see 8 ) partitioned according to the emitted compounds or34 processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing is shown as a black35 diamond with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right of the figure, together36 with the confidence level (VH – very high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). For halocarbons,37 confidence is H for ozone, and VH for CFCs and HCFCs. For aerosols, confidence is H for total aerosols, and M for38 individual aerosol components. Aerosol forcing other than cloud adjustments is the −0.27 W m−2 shown in the bar39 above and the −0.04 W m−2 from the nitrate response to NOx emissions (which is equal to the −0.35 W m−2 due to40 aerosol-radiation interactions plus +0.04 W m−2 due to black carbon on snow), while the cloud adjustment term includes41 a response of −0.1 W m−2 due to aerosol-radiation interactions which is attributable to black carbon and −0.45 W m−2 42 that has not been attributed to individual components. Small forcings due to contrails, volcanoes, HFCs, PFCs and SF643 are not shown. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided for three different years with respect to 1750. {Figures44 8.16 and 8.18; Figures TS.6 and TS.7}45 46 47 8 The strength of drivers is quantified as Radiative Forcing (RF) in units Watts per square metre (W m–2 ) as in previous IPCC assessments. RF is the anomalous energy flux caused by a driver. In the traditional RF concept employed in previous IPCC reports all surface and tropospheric conditions are kept fixed. In this report, in calculations of RF for well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, physical variables, except for the ocean and sea ice, are allowed to respond to perturbations with rapid adjustments. This change reflects the scientific progress from previous assessments and results in a better indication of the eventual temperature response for these drivers. For all other drivers, these adjustments are assumed to be small, and thus the traditional RF is taken as the best estimate of forcing.
  • 8. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-8 Total pages: 31 • The total anthropogenic RF since 1750 is 2.3 [1.1 to 3.3] W m−2 (see Figure SPM.4), and it has1 increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades. The total anthropogenic RF estimate for2 2011 is 44% higher compared to the estimate reported in AR4 for the year 2005. This is due in about3 equal parts to reductions in estimates of the forcing resulting from aerosols and continued growth in4 most greenhouse gas concentrations. {8.5.1}5 6 • The RF from changes in concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and7 Halocarbons) since 1750 is 2.83 [2.26 to 3.40] W m–2 . {8.3.2}8 9 • Emissions of CO2 alone have caused an RF of 1.68 [1.33 to 2.03] W m–2 (see Figure SPM.4). Including10 emissions from other carbon-containing sources, which also contributed to the increase in CO211 concentrations, yield an RF of 1.82 [1.46 to 2.18] W m–2 . {8.3.2, 8.5.1}12 13 • Emissions of CH4 alone have caused an RF of 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20] W m−2 . This is very likely much larger14 than the concentration-based estimate of 0.48 [0.38 to 0.58] Wm−2 (unchanged from AR4). This15 difference in estimates is caused by concentration changes in ozone and stratospheric water vapour due16 to CH4 emissions and other emissions indirectly affecting CH4 (see Figure SPM.4). {8.3.2, 8.3.3, 8.5.1;17 FAQ 8.2}18 19 • Emissions of ozone-depleting halocarbons are very likely to have caused a net positive RF as their own20 positive RF has outweighed the negative RF from the stratospheric ozone depletion that they have21 induced (see Figure SPM.4). {8.3.3, 8.5.1; FAQ 8.2}22 23 • Emissions of short-lived gases contribute substantially to radiative forcing. Emissions of carbon24 monoxide are virtually certain to have induced a positive RF, while emissions of NOx are likely to have25 induced a net negative RF (see Figure SPM.4). {8.3.3, 8.5.1; FAQ 8.2}26 27 • The RF of the total aerosol effect is –0.9 [–1.9 to −0.1] W m−2 (medium confidence), and results from a28 negative forcing from most aerosols and a positive contribution from black carbon absorption of solar29 radiation. While the uncertainty in the aerosol contribution dominates the overall uncertainty in total RF30 over the industrial era, there is high confidence that aerosols have offset a substantial portion of global31 mean forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases. {2.2.3, 2.3.3, 7.5.1, 7.5.2, 8.3.4, 8.5.1}32 33 • The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years34 after volcanic eruptions. Several small eruptions have caused an RF for the years 2008−2011 of −0.1035 [–0.13 to –0.07] W m–2 , approximately double the 1999−2002 volcanic aerosol RF. {8.4.2}36 37 • The best estimate of RF due to changes in total solar irradiance over the industrial era is 0.05 [0.00 to38 0.10] W m−2 (see Figure SPM.4). Satellite observations of total solar irradiance changes from 1978 to39 2011 indicate that the last solar minimum was lower than the previous two, resulting in a likely RF40 change of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m–2 between the most recent (2008) minimum and the 198541 minimum. {8.4.1}42 43 44 45 Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes46 47 Understanding of the climate system results from combining observations, theoretical studies of feedback48 processes, and model simulations. Compared to AR4, more detailed observations and improved climate49 models now enable the attribution of detected changes to human influences in more climate system50 components.51 52 53 54
  • 9. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-9 Total pages: 31 Evaluation of Climate Models1 2 Climate models have continued to be improved since the AR4, and many models have been extended into3 Earth System Models by including a representation of the carbon cycle. There is very high confidence that4 climate models reproduce the observed large-scale patterns and multi-decadal trends in surface temperature,5 especially since the mid-20th century. Confidence is lower on sub-continental and smaller spatial scales.6 Precipitation and sea ice cover are not simulated as well as surface temperature, but improvements have7 occurred since the AR4. {9.1, 9.4, 9.6, 9.8; Box 9.1; Box 9.2}8 9 10 • There is very high confidence that models reproduce the more rapid warming in the second half of the11 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions. Models do not generally12 reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years. There is medium13 confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by14 unpredictable climate variability, with possible contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic,15 and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from too strong a response to increasing16 greenhouse-gas forcing. {9.4.1, 10.3.1, 11.3.2; Box 9.2}17 18 • There has been some improvement in the simulation of large-scale patterns of precipitation since the19 AR4. At regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the assessment remains difficult20 owing to observational uncertainties. {9.4.1, 9.6.1}21 22 • Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and their interactions, than at the time23 of the AR4, but there remains low confidence in the representation and quantification of these processes24 in models. {7.3, 7.4, 7.5.2, 7.6.4, 9.4.1}25 26 • There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 is now27 better simulated than at the time of the AR4, with about one-quarter of the models showing a trend as28 large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations. Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in29 Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small increasing trend in30 observations. {9.4.3}31 32 • Many models reproduce the observed changes in upper-ocean heat content from 1960 to present, with33 the multi-model mean time series falling within the range of the available observational estimates for34 most of the period. {9.4.2}35 36 • In the majority of Earth System Models the simulated global land and ocean carbon sinks over the latter37 part of the 20th century are within the range of observational estimates. However, models38 systematically underestimate the Northern Hemisphere land sink derived from atmospheric39 observations. {9.4.5}40 41 42 Quantification of Climate System Responses43 44 Independent estimates of radiative forcing, observed heat storage and surface warming combine to give an45 estimated energy budget for the Earth that is consistent with the assessed likely range of the equilibrium46 climate sensitivity to within assessed uncertainties. This ability to balance the Earth's energy budget over47 recent decades provides high confidence in the understanding of anthropogenic climate change. {Box 13.1}48 49 50 • The net feedback from combined changes in amount and distribution of water vapour in the atmosphere51 is extremely likely positive and therefore amplifies changes in climate. The sign of the net radiative52 feedback due to all cloud types is likely positive. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud53 feedback is due primarily to continuing uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds. {7.2.4,54 7.2.5, 7.2.6}55 56
  • 10. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-10 Total pages: 31 • The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies the response of the climate system to constant1 radiative forcing. It is defined as change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is2 caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. ECS is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C3 (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than4 6°C (medium confidence). The lower limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than the 2°C in the5 AR4, reflecting the evidence from new studies of observed temperature change using the extended6 records in atmosphere and ocean. {Box 12.2}7 8 • The transient climate response (TCR) quantifies the response of the climate system to an increasing9 radiative forcing on a decadal to century timescale. It is defined as the change in global mean surface10 temperature at the time when the atmospheric CO2 concentration has doubled in a scenario of11 concentration increasing at 1% per year. TCR is likely in the range of 1.0°C to 2.5°C (high confidence)12 and extremely unlikely greater than 3°C. {Box 12.2}13 14 • The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is the global mean surface15 temperature change per 1000 PgC emitted to the atmosphere. TCRE is likely in the range of 0.8°C to16 2.5°C per 1000 PgC and applies for cumulative emissions up to about 2000 PgC until the time17 temperatures peak (see Figure SPM.9). {12.5.4; Box 12.2}18 19 20 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change21 22 It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in23 global average surface temperature from 1951−2010. There is high confidence that this has warmed the24 ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level, and changed some climate extremes, in the second25 half of the 20th century (see Figure SPM.5 and Table SPM.1). {10.3–10.6, 10.9}26 27 28 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.5 HERE]29 Figure SPM.5: Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on time-series of three large-scale30 indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels),31 Arctic and Antarctic sea ice (white panels), ocean heat uptake in the major ocean basins (blue panels). Global average32 changes are also given. All time-series are decadal averages, plotted at the centre of the decade. For temperature panels,33 observations are dashed lines if the spatial coverage of areas being examined is below 50%. For ocean heat content and34 sea ice panels the solid line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the35 data coverage is only adequate, and thus, uncertainty is larger. Model results shown are CMIP5 multi-model means and36 ensemble ranges, with shaded bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals 9 . See Chapter 10, Supplementary37 Material 10.SM.1 for datasets and methods used. {Figure 10.21; Figure TS.12}38 39 40 • The observed warming since 1951 can be attributed to the different natural and anthropogenic drivers41 and their contributions can now be quantified. Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface42 warming likely to be in the range of 0.5°C to 1.3 °C over the period 1951−2010, with the contributions43 from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, likely to be in the range of44 −0.6°C to 0.1 °C. The contributions from natural forcings are likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.145 °C, and from internal variability likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C. Together these assessed46 contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6°C over this period.47 {10.3.1}48 49 9 For surface temperature, the blue shaded band is based on 52 simulations from 17 climate models using only natural forcings, while the red shaded band is based on 147 simulations from 44 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. For ocean heat content, 10 simulations from 10 models, and 13 simulations from 13 models were used respectively. For sea ice extent, a subset of models are considered that simulated the mean and seasonal cycle of the sea ice extent within 20% of the observed sea-ice climatology for the period 1981–2005 (Arctic: 24 simulations from 11 models for both red and blue shaded bands, Antarctic: 21 simulations from 6 models for both red and blue shaded bands).
  • 11. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-11 Total pages: 31 • The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–1 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced2 trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due3 to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. However, there is low4 confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing this reduced warming5 trend. {Box 9.2; 10.3.1; Box 10.2}6 7 • Over every continental region except Antarctica, anthropogenic forcings have likely made a substantial8 contribution to surface temperature increases since the mid-20th century (see Figure SPM.5). For9 Antarctica, large observational uncertainties result in low confidence that anthropogenic forcings have10 contributed to the observed warming averaged over available stations. {2.4.1, 10.3.1}11 12 • It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to global upper ocean13 heat content (above 700 m) observed since the 1970s (see Figure SPM.5). Attribution of changes in14 regional upper ocean heat content is less certain. {3.2.3, 10.4.1}15 16 • It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle and its patterns since17 1960. This assessment is based on the systematic changes observed, detected and attributed in terrestrial18 precipitation, atmospheric humidity, and oceanic surface salinity distributions influenced by19 precipitation and evaporation, the consistency of the evidence from both the atmosphere and ocean, and20 physical understanding. {2.5, 3.3.2, 7.6, 10.3.2, 10.4.2}21 22 • Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979. There is low23 confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due24 to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in25 estimates of internal variability in that region. {10.5.1}26 27 • Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the28 increased surface mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet since 1990. Due to a low level of scientific29 understanding there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the30 Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. {4.3.3, 10.5.2}31 32 • It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic component to observed reductions in Northern33 Hemisphere snow cover since 1970. {10.5.3}34 35 • Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain36 about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise. Over the period 1993−2010, global mean sea37 level rise is consistent with the sum of the observed contributions from ocean thermal expansion due to38 warming, and from changes in mass of glaciers, ice sheets and land water storage. {13.3.6}39 40 • Based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence on three of the main contributors to sea41 level, that is thermal expansion, glacier mass loss, and Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss, it is very42 likely that there is a substantial anthropogenic contribution to the global mean sea level rise since the43 1970s. {10.4.1, 10.4.3, 10.5.2, 13.3.6}44 45 • There is high confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed to global warming46 over the period 1986 to 2008, when direct satellite measurements of total solar irradiance were47 available. There is medium confidence that the 11-year cycle of solar variability influences decadal48 climate fluctuations in some regions through other amplifying mechanisms. {10.3.1; Box 10.2}49 50 • Cosmic rays enhance new particle formation in the free troposphere, but the effect on the concentration51 of cloud condensation nuclei is too weak to have any detectable climatic influence during a solar cycle52 or over the last century (medium evidence, high agreement). No robust association between changes in53 cosmic rays and cloudiness has been identified. {7.4.6}54 55 56 57
  • 12. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-12 Total pages: 31 Future Global and Regional Climate Change1 2 Projections of changes in the climate system are made using a hierarchy of climate models ranging from3 simple climate models, to models of intermediate complexity, to comprehensive climate models, and Earth4 System Models. These models simulate changes based on a set of scenarios of anthropogenic forcings. A new5 set of scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was used for the new climate model6 simulations carried out under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 57 (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme (see Box SPM.1). A large number of comprehensive8 climate models and Earth System Models have participated in CMIP5, whose results form the core of the9 climate system projections. Projections in this Summary for Policymakers are given relative to 1986–2005,10 unless otherwise stated10 .11 12 13 Continued emissions of greenhouse gases would cause further warming. Emissions at or above current rates14 would induce changes in all components in the climate system, some of which would very likely be15 unprecedented in hundreds to thousands of years. Changes are projected to occur in all regions of the globe,16 and include changes in land and ocean, in the water cycle, in the cryosphere, in sea level, in some extreme17 events and in ocean acidification. Many of these changes would persist for many centuries. Limiting climate18 change would require substantial and sustained reductions of CO2 emissions. {Chapters 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14}19 20 21 • Projections of many quantities for the next few decades show further changes that are similar in patterns22 to those already observed. They provide an indication of changes that are projected later in the 21st23 century. For some quantities, natural variability continues to be larger than the forced changes,24 particularly at the regional scale. By about mid-21st century the magnitudes of the projected changes are25 substantially affected by the choice of emissions scenario (Box SPM.1). {11.3.1, 11.3.2, 11.3.6; Box26 11.1; FAQ 11.1; Annex I}27 28 29 [INSERT BOX SPM.1 HERE]30 Box SPM.1: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)31 32 33 • Projected climate change based on RCPs is similar to AR4 after accounting for scenario differences.34 The overall spread of projections for the high RCPs is narrower than for comparable scenarios used in35 AR4 because in contrast to the SRES emission scenarios used in AR4, the RCPs used in AR5 are36 defined as concentration pathways and thus carbon cycle uncertainties affecting atmospheric CO237 concentrations are not considered in the concentration driven CMIP5 simulations. Simulated patterns of38 climate change in the CMIP5 models are very similar to CMIP3. {11.3.6, 12.3, 12.4, 12.4.9}39 40 41 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.6 HERE]42 Figure SPM.6: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a), change in global annual mean43 surface temperature relative to 1986–2005, see Table SPM.2 and footnote 9 for other reference periods. (b), Northern44 Hemisphere sea ice extent in September (5 year running mean), and (c), global mean ocean surface pH. Time series of45 projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading, minimum-maximum range) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue)46 and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The47 mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars.48 The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated. For sea ice extent (b), the projected49 mean and uncertainty (minimum-maximum range) of the subset of models that most closely reproduce the50 climatological mean state and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice is given. For completeness, the CMIP5 multi-51 model mean is indicated with dashed lines. {Figures 6.28, 12.5, and 12.28–12.31; Figures TS.15, TS.17, and TS.20}52 10 Using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (5−95% confidence interval), the observed warming to the reference period 1986−2005 used for projections is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C for 1850−1900, 0.30 [0.27 to 0.33] °C for 1961−1990, and 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C for 1980−1999. {2.4.3}
  • 13. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-13 Total pages: 31 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.7 HERE]1 Figure SPM.7: Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100 of (a),2 surface temperature change, (b), average percent change in mean precipitation, (c), Northern Hemisphere September sea3 ice extent, and (d) change in ocean surface pH. Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The4 number of CMIP5 models to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For5 panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions where the multi model mean is less than one standard deviation of internal6 variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi model mean is greater than two standard deviations of internal7 variability and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). In panel (c), the lines are the modeled8 means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white9 color, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state10 and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice cover is given in grey color. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29;Figures11 TS.15, TS.16, TS.17, and TS.20}12 13 14 [INSERT TABLE SPM.2 HERE]15 Table SPM.2: Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and16 late 21st century. {12.4.1; Table 12.2, Table 13.5}17 18 19 Atmosphere: Temperature20 21 The total anthropogenic emission of long-lived greenhouse gases largely determines the warming in the 21st22 century. Surface temperature change will not be regionally uniform, and there is very high confidence that23 long-term mean warming over land will be larger than over the ocean and that the Arctic region will warm24 most rapidly (see Figures SPM 6 and SPM.7). {12.3, 12.4; Box 5.1}25 26 27 • The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 will likely be in the range of28 0.4°C to 1.0°C for the set of RCPs. This is based on an assessment of observationally-constrained29 projections and predictions initialized with observations (medium confidence). {11.3.2}30 31 • Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 for the CO2 concentration driven RCPs is32 projected to likely be in the ranges derived from the CMIP5 climate models, i.e., 0.3°C to 1.7°C33 (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C (RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5) (see Figure34 SPM.6 and Table SPM.2). {12.4.1}35 36 • With respect to preindustrial conditions, global temperatures averaged in the period 2081−2100 are37 projected to likely exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence)38 and are likely to exceed 2°C above preindustrial for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence).39 Temperature change above 2°C under RCP2.6 is unlikely (medium confidence). Warming above 4°C by40 2081−2100 is unlikely in all RCPs (high confidence) except for RCP8.5 where it is as likely as not41 (medium confidence). {12.4.1}42 43 • It is virtually certain that, in most places, there will be more hot and fewer cold temperature extremes44 on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. It is very likely that heat waves45 will occur with a higher frequency and duration; however, occasional cold winter extremes will46 continue to occur. (Table SPM.1). {12.4.3}47 48 49 Atmosphere: Water Cycle50 51 There is high confidence that the contrast of seasonal mean precipitation between dry and wet regions will52 increase in a warmer climate over most of the globe in the 21st century, although there may be regional53 exceptions. Furthermore, there is high confidence that the contrast between wet and dry seasons will increase54 over most of the globe as temperatures increase. The high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are very55 likely to experience more precipitation (see Figure SPM.7). {12.4}56
  • 14. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-14 Total pages: 31 • Projected changes in the water cycle over the next few decades show similar large-scale patterns to1 those towards the end of the century, but with smaller magnitude. In the next few decades projected2 changes at the regional-scale will be strongly influenced by internal variability. {11.3.2}3 4 • In many mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean precipitation will likely decrease, while in many5 mid-latitude wet regions, mean precipitation will likely increase by the end of this century under the6 RCP8.5 scenario (see Figure SPM.7). In a warmer world, extreme precipitation events over most of the7 mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely be more intense and more8 frequent by the end of this century (see Table SPM.1) {7.6.2, 7.6.5, 12.4.5}9 10 • Globally, it is likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase over the 21st century.11 Also, while monsoon circulation is likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify.12 Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much. Monsoon retreat dates will13 very likely be delayed, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. {14.2.1}14 15 • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will very likely remain the dominant mode of interannual16 variability in the tropical Pacific, with global influences in the 21st century. Due to changes in moisture17 availability, ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify. Natural18 modulations of the variance and spatial pattern of ENSO are large and thus confidence in any specific19 projected change for the 21st century remains low. {5.4, 14.4}20 21 22 Atmosphere: Air Quality23 24 • Background levels of surface ozone (O3) on continental scales are projected to decrease over most25 regions as rising temperatures enhance global O3 destruction (high confidence), but to increase with26 rising methane (high confidence). By 2100, surface ozone increases by about 8 ppb globally in the27 doubled-methane scenario (RCP8.5) relative to the stable-methane pathways. All else being equal, there28 is medium confidence that warmer temperatures are expected to trigger positive feedbacks in chemistry29 and local emissions, further enhancing pollution levels. {11.3.5; Annex II}30 31 32 Ocean33 34 The global ocean is projected to warm in all RCP scenarios. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from35 the surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions are36 decreased or concentrations kept constant. {12.4}37 38 39 • The strongest warming signal is projected for the surface in subtropical and tropical regions. At greater40 depth the warming will be most pronounced in the Southern Ocean. In some regions, ocean warming in41 the top few hundred meters is projected to exceed 0.5°C (RCP2.6) to 2.5°C (RCP8.5), and 0.3°C42 (RCP2.6) to 0.7°C (RCP8.5) at a depth of about 1 km by the end of the century. {12.4.7}43 44 • It is very likely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken over the 21st45 century by about 20 to 30% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and about 36 to 44% in the RCP8.5 scenario. It is46 likely that there will be some decline in the AMOC by 2050, but there will be some decades when the47 AMOC increases. {11.3.3, 12.4.7}48 49 • It is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo an abrupt transition or collapse in the 21st century for50 the scenarios considered. There is low confidence in assessing the evolution of the AMOC beyond the51 21st century because of the limited number of analyses and equivocal results. A collapse beyond the52 21st century for large sustained warming cannot be excluded. {12.5.5}53 54 55
  • 15. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-15 Total pages: 31 Cryosphere1 2 It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere3 snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global temperature rises. It is virtually certain that near-4 surface permafrost extent at high northern latitudes will be reduced. Glacier volume is projected to decrease5 under all RCP scenarios. {12.4, 13.4}6 7 • By the end of the century, year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice are projected from CMIP5 multi-8 model averages, with reductions in sea ice extent for 2081‒2100 ranging from 43% for RCP2.6 to 94%9 for RCP8.5 in September and from 8% to 34% in February (medium confidence) (see Figures SPM.610 and SPM.7). {12.4.6}11 12 • Based on an assessment of a subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state13 and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice cover, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean11 in September before14 mid-century is likely under RCP8.5 (medium confidence) (see Figures SPM.6 and SPM.7). {11.3.4,15 12.4.6, 12.5.5}16 17 • In the Antarctic, a decrease in sea ice extent and volume is projected with low confidence for the end of18 the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. {12.4.6}19 20 • By 2100, 15 to 55% of the present glacier volume is eliminated under RCP2.6, and 35 to 85% under21 RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {13.4.2, 13.5.1}22 23 • The area of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is projected to decrease by 7% for RCP2.6 and by24 25% in RCP8.5. {12.4.6}25 26 • By the end of the 21st century, diagnosed near-surface permafrost area is projected to decrease by27 between 37% (RCP2.6) to 81% (RCP8.5) (medium confidence). {12.4.6}28 29 30 Sea Level31 32 Global mean sea level will rise during the 21st century (see Figure SPM.8). Confidence in projections of33 global mean sea level rise has increased since the AR4 because of the improved agreement of process-based34 models with observations and physical understanding, and the inclusion of ice-sheet rapid dynamical35 changes. {13.3–13.5}36 37 38 • It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate39 observed during 1971–2010 for all RCP scenarios, due to increased ocean warming and loss of mass of40 glaciers and ice sheets. {13.5.1, 13.5.3}41 42 43 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.8 HERE]44 Figure SPM.8: Projections of global mean sea level change over the 21st century relative to 1986−2005 from the45 combination of CMIP5 and process-based models, for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6, and RCP8.5. The assessed46 likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed likely ranges for the mean over the period 2081−2100 for all RCP47 scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal line. Based on48 current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause49 global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. However, there is medium50 confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st51 century. {Table 13.5, Figures13.10 and 13.11; Figures TS.21 and TS.22}52 53 11 Conditions in the Arctic Ocean are referred to as ice-free when the sea ice extent is less than 106 km2 .
  • 16. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-16 Total pages: 31 • Global mean sea level rise for 2081−2100 will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.54 m for RCP2.6, 0.321 to 0.62 m for RCP4.5, 0.33 to 0.62 m for RCP6.0, and 0.45 to 0.81 m for RCP8.5 (medium confidence).2 These ranges are derived from CMIP5 climate projections in combination with process-based models3 and literature assessment of glacier and ice sheet contributions. For RCP8.5 the rate of global mean sea4 level rise is 7 to 15 mm yr−1 during 2081−2100 and the range in year 2100 is 0.53 to 0.97 m. (see Figure5 SPM.8, Table SPM.2). {13.5.1, 13.5.3}6 7 • The basis for higher projections of global mean sea level rise in the 21st century has been considered8 and it has been concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of9 specific levels above the likely range. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-10 based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise11 substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. However, there is medium confidence that12 this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st13 century. {13.4.4, 13.5.3}14 15 • Many semi-empirical model projections of global mean sea level rise are higher than process-based16 model projections, but there is low agreement in semi-empirical model projections, and no consensus17 about their reliability. {13.5.2, 13.5.3}18 19 • In all RCP scenarios, thermal expansion is the largest contribution to future global mean sea level rise,20 accounting for 30 to 55% of the total, with the second largest contribution coming from glaciers. There21 is high confidence that the increase in surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet will exceed the22 increase in snowfall, leading to a positive contribution from changes in surface mass balance to future23 sea level. There is medium confidence that snowfall on the Antarctic ice sheet will increase, while24 surface melting will remain small, resulting in a negative contribution to future sea level from changes25 in surface mass balance. Rapid changes in outflow from both ice sheets combined will likely make a26 contribution in the range of 0.03 to 0.20 m by 2081−2100. {13.3.3, 13.4.2−13.4.4, 13.5.1}27 28 • By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the29 ocean area. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change within30 20% of the global mean sea level change. In some coastal locations, past and current glacier and ice-31 sheet mass loss, tectonic processes, coastal processes, and local anthropogenic activity are also32 important contributors to changes in sea level relative to the land. {13.1.4, 13.6.5}33 34 35 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles36 37 In all RCPs, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher in 2100 relative to present day as a result of a further38 increase of cumulative emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the 21st century. Part of the CO2 emitted39 to the atmosphere by human activity will continue to be taken up by the ocean. Future CO2 uptake by the40 land is model and scenario dependent. It is virtually certain that the resulting storage of carbon by the ocean41 will increase ocean acidification. {6.4}42 43 44 • With very high confidence, ocean carbon uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue under45 all four RCPs through to 2100, with higher uptake for higher concentration pathways. The future46 evolution of the land carbon uptake is much more uncertain, with a majority of models projecting a47 continued net carbon uptake under all RCPs, but with some models simulating a net loss of carbon by48 the land due to the combined effect of climate change and land use change. {6.4.3}49 50 • Based on Earth System Models, there is high confidence that the feedback between climate and the51 carbon cycle is positive in the 21st century, i.e., climate change will partially offset land and ocean52 carbon sinks, leaving more of the emitted CO2 in the atmosphere. A positive feedback between climate53 and the carbon cycle on century to millennial time scales is supported by paleoclimate observations and54 modelling. {6.2.3, 6.4.2}55 56
  • 17. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-17 Total pages: 31 • Earth System Models project a worldwide increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios. The1 corresponding decrease in surface ocean pH by the end of 21st century is 0.065 (0.06 to 0.07)12 for2 RCP2.6, 0.145 (0.14 to 0.15) for RCP4.5, 0.203 (0.20 to 0.21) for RCP6.0, and 0.31 (0.30 to 0.32) for3 RCP8.5 (see Figures SPM.6 and SPM.7). {6.4.4}4 5 • Cumulative fossil fuel emissions for the 2012−2100 period compatible with the RCP atmospheric CO26 concentrations, as derived from CMIP5 Earth System Models, are 270 (140 to 410)12 PgC for RCP2.6 ,7 780 (595 to 1005) PgC for RCP4.5, 1060 (840 to 1250) PgC for RCP6.0, and 1685 (1415 to 1910) PgC8 for RCP8.5. For RCP2.6, an average emission reduction of 50% (range 14% to 96%) is required by9 2050 relative to 1990 levels. It is about as likely as not that sustained globally net negative CO210 emissions, i.e., net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, will be required to achieve the reductions in11 atmospheric CO2 in this scenario by the end of the 21st century. {6.4.3}12 13 • There is low confidence in projections of the magnitude of additional carbon emissions to the14 atmosphere through CO2 or CH4 release from thawing permafrost. The best estimate range for 2100 is15 50 to more than 250 PgC for RCP8.5. {6.4.3}16 17 18 Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility19 20 The principal driver of long-term warming is total emissions of CO2 and the two quantities are21 approximately linearly related (see Figure SPM.9). Therefore, for any given warming target, higher22 emissions in earlier decades imply lower emissions later. Many aspects of climate change will persist for23 many centuries even if emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-24 century commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2. {12.5}25 26 27 [INSERT FIGURE SPM.9 HERE]28 Figure SPM.9: Global mean temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various29 lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 shown30 with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). The decadal means for 2001−2010 (star), 2041−2050 (square) and31 2091−2100, (diamond) are highlighted. Model results over the historical period (1860–2010) are indicated in black. The32 coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of33 available models. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per34 year, is given by the thin black line and dark grey area. The light grey wedge represents this report’s assessment of the35 transient climate response to emissions (TCRE) from CO2 only. All values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base36 period. The horizontal brown bar and solid black line at the bottom-left illustrate the assessment of total cumulative37 carbon emissions until 2011 with associated uncertainties. All time-series are represented by connecting decadal38 averages to illustrate the long-term trends. {Figure 12.45; TFE.8, Figure 1}39 40 • Based on the assessment of TCRE, cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources would41 need to be limited to about 1000 PgC since the beginning of the industrial era, if the warming caused by42 anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone is limited to be likely less than 2°C relative to pre-industrial. About43 half of this budget, estimated in the range of 460 to 630 PgC, was already emitted by 2011. Accounting44 for the projected warming effect of non-CO2 forcings, a possible release of greenhouse gases from45 permafrost or methane hydrates, or requiring a higher likelihood of temperatures remaining below 2°C,46 all imply a substantially lower budget. (see Figure SPM.9). {12.5.4}47 48 • It is very likely that more than 20% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,00049 years after anthropogenic emissions have stopped. CO2 induced warming is projected to remain50 approximately constant for many centuries following a complete cessation of emissions. A large51 fraction of climate change is thus irreversible on a human time scale, except if net anthropogenic CO252 emissions were strongly negative over a sustained period. {Box 6.2; 12.5.5}53 54 12 The brackets ( ) in this paragraph indicate a CMIP5 model spread.
  • 18. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-18 Total pages: 31 • It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due1 to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results indicate global2 mean sea level rise by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO23 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, but 1 to 3 m for a radiative forcing4 that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm (medium confidence). {13.5.4}5 6 • Larger sea level rise could result from sustained mass loss by ice sheets, and some part of the mass loss7 might be irreversible. The available evidence indicates that sustained warming greater than a certain8 threshold above preindustrial would lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet over a9 millennium or more, causing a global mean sea level rise of up to 7 m. Current estimates indicate that10 the threshold is greater than 1°C but less than 4°C global mean warming with respect to preindustrial,11 but confidence is low. {5.8.1, 13.4.3, 13.4.4}12 13 • Methods to counter climate change, termed geoengineering, have been proposed. Carbon dioxide14 removal (CDR) methods have biogeochemical and technological limitations to their potential on a15 global scale. There is insufficient knowledge to quantify how much CO2 emissions could be reduced16 through negative emissions on a human timescale. Modelling shows that some solar radiation17 management (SRM) methods have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but18 they would also modify the global water cycle, and would not compensate for ocean acidification. If19 SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence that global surface temperatures would20 rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing. CDR and SRM methods carry21 unintended side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale. Limited evidence precludes a22 comprehensive quantitative assessment of both SRM and CDR and their impact on the climate system.23 {6.5, 7.7}24 25 26
  • 19. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-19 Total pages: 31 Box SPM.1: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)1 2 Climate change projections require information about future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse3 gases, aerosols and other anthropogenic drivers. This information is expressed as different scenarios of4 human activity, which are not assessed in this report. Climate change projections in this report are often5 reported conditional on a specific scenario, or a set of scenarios. The scenarios do not include trends in6 natural drivers such as solar or volcanic forcing.7 8 For the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, the scientific community has defined a set of four new scenarios,9 referred to as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). They are identified by their year 2100 total10 radiative forcing, ranging from approximately 2.6 W m–2 for RCP2.6 to 8.5 W m–2 for RCP8.5. The RCPs11 can contain 21st century climate policies and thus are framed differently compared to the no-climate policy12 scenarios used in previous assessment reports. For RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, radiative forcing does not peak by13 year 2100, whereas it does for RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, before declining (RCP2.6) or stabilizing (RCP4.5).14 While the RCPs span a wide range of total forcing values, they do not span the full range of plausible15 emissions in the literature, particularly for aerosols. Each RCP provides comprehensive high spatial16 resolution data sets of land use change, sector-based emissions of air pollutants, and both emissions and17 concentrations of greenhouse gases up to 2100, obtained from a combination of integrated assessment18 models, simple climate models, atmospheric chemistry and global carbon cycle models.19 20 Most of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations with comprehensive21 climate models and Earth System Models (ESMs) are performed with prescribed CO2 concentrations22 reaching about 421 ppm (RCP2.6), 538 ppm (RCP4.5), 670 ppm (RCP6.0), and 936 ppm (RCP 8.5) by the23 year 2100. For RCP8.5, additional CMIP5 ESM simulations are performed with prescribed CO2 emissions as24 provided by the integrated assessment models. These simulations enable investigation of uncertainties25 related to carbon cycle feedbacks.26 27 The “label” associated with the 2100 forcing value of each RCP should be understood as indicative only, as28 the climate forcing resulting from all drivers varies between models due to specific model characteristics.29 30 31 32
  • 20. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-20 Total pages: 31 Tables1 2 Table SPM.1: Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the3 early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century. Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised* global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red).4 Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new RCP5 scenarios.6 7 Phenomenon and direction of trend Assessment that changes occurred (typically since 1950 unless otherwise indicated) Assessment of a human contribution to observed changes Likelihood of further changes Early 21st century Late 21st century Warmer and/or fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Very likely [2.6.1] Very likely [10.6.1] Likely [11.3.2] Virtually certain [12.4.3] Very likely Very likely Likely Likely − − Virtually certain Virtually certain Warmer and/or more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Very likely [2.6.1] Very likely [10.6.1] Likely [11.3.2] Virtually certain [12.4.3] Very likely Very likely Likely Likely (nights only) − − Virtually certain Virtually certain Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency and/or duration increases over most land areas Medium confidence on a global scale Likely in some regions (a) [2.6.1] Likely (b) [10.6.2] Not formally assessed (c) [11.3.2] Very likely [12.4.3] Medium confidence in many (but not all) regions Likely Not formally assessed More likely than not − − Very likely Very likely Heavy precipitation events. Increase in the frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation. Likely more land areas with increases than decreases Very likely in central North America [2.6.2] Medium confidence [7.6.5, 10.6.1] Likely over many land areas [11.3.2] Very likely in some areas (d) [12.4.5] Likely more land areas with increases than decreases Likely over most land areas Medium confidence More likely than not − − Likely over many areas Very likely over most land areas Increases in intensity and/or duration of drought Low confidence on a global scale Likely changes in some regions (e) [2.6.2] Low confidence [10.6.1] Low confidence (g) [11.3.2] Likely (medium confidence) on a regional to global scale (h) [12.4.5] Medium confidence in some regions Likely in many regions, since 1970 (f) Medium confidence More likely than not − − Medium confidence in some regions Likely (f) Increases in intense tropical cyclone activity Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes Virtually certain in North Atlantic since 1970 [2.6.3] Low confidence [10.6.1] Low confidence [11.3.2] More likely than not in some basins [14.6] Low confidence Likely (in some regions, since 1970) Low confidence More likely than not − − More likely than not in some basins Likely Increased incidence and/or magnitude of extreme high sea level Likely (since 1970) [3.7.5] Not assessed Not assessed Very likely [13.7.2] Likely (late 20th century) Likely Likely (i) More likely than not (i) − − Very likely (j) Likely 8
  • 21. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-21 Total pages: 31 * The direct comparison of assessment findings between reports is difficult. For some climate variables, different aspects have been assessed, and the revised guidance note on uncertainties has been1 used for the SREX and AR5. The availability of new information, improved scientific understanding, continued analyses of data and models, and specific differences in methodologies applied in the2 assessed studies, all contribute to revised assessment findings.3 4 Notes:5 (a) Likely that heat wave frequency has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.6 (b) Attribution is based on available case studies. It is likely that human influence has substantially increased the probability of occurrence of some observed heat waves in some locations.7 (c) Models project near-term increases in the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heat waves and warm spells.8 (d) Very likely over most of the mid-latitude land-masses and over wet tropical regions.9 (e) The frequency and intensity of drought has likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia.10 (f) AR4 assessed the area affected by drought.11 (g) There is low confidence in projected changes in soil moisture.12 (h) Regional to global-scale projected decreases in soil moisture and increased agricultural drought are likely (medium confidence) in presently dry regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.513 scenario. Soil moisture drying in the Mediterranean, Southwest US and southern African regions is consistent with projected changes in Hadley circulation and increased surface temperatures, so there is14 high confidence in likely surface drying in these regions by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario.15 (i) Attribution is based on the close relationship between observed changes in extreme and mean sea level.16 (j) SREX assessed it to be very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to future upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels.17 18 19 20
  • 22. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-22 Total pages: 31 Table SPM.2: Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and1 late 21st century. {12.4.1; Table 12.2, Table 13.5}2 3 2046–2065 2081–2100 Variable Scenario mean likely range c mean likely range c Global Mean Surface Temperature Change (°C) a RCP2.6 1.0 0.4 to 1.6 1.0 0.3 to 1.7 RCP4.5 1.4 0.9 to 2.0 1.8 1.1 to 2.6 RCP6.0 1.3 0.8 to 1.8 2.2 1.4 to 3.1 RCP8.5 2.0 1.4 to 2.6 3.7 2.6 to 4.8 mean likely range d mean likely range d Global Mean Sea Level Rise (m) b RCP2.6 0.24 0.17 to 0.31 0.40 0.26 to 0.54 RCP4.5 0.26 0.19 to 0.33 0.47 0.32 to 0.62 RCP6.0 0.25 0.18 to 0.32 0.47 0.33 to 0.62 RCP8.5 0.29 0.22 to 0.37 0.62 0.45 to 0.81 4 Notes:5 (a) Based on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Using HadCRUT4 and its6 uncertainty estimate (5−95% confidence interval), the observed warming to the reference period 1986−2005 used7 for projections is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C for 1850−1900, 0.30 [0.27 to 0.33] °C for 1961−1990, and 0.11 [0.09 to8 0.13] °C for 1980−1999. {2.4.3; Tables 12.2 and 12.3}9 10 (b) Based on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Where CMIP5 results were not11 available for a particular AOGCM and scenario, they were estimated as explained in Chapter 13, Table 13.5. The12 contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having13 uniform probability distributions, and as largely independent of scenario. This treatment does not imply that the14 contributions concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not15 permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-16 based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the17 likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed18 several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st century.19 20 (c) Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after21 accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models. For projections of global mean22 surface temperature change in 2046−2065 confidence is medium, because contributions of radiative forcing and23 initial conditions to the temperature response uncertainty are larger than for 2081−2100. The likely ranges for24 2046−2065 do not take into account the possible influence of factors that lead to near-term (2016−2035) projections25 of global mean surface temperature that are lower than the 5−95% model ranges, because the influence of these26 factors on longer term projections has not been quantified because of insufficient scientific understanding. {11.3.6}27 28 (d) Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after29 accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models. For projections of global mean30 sea level rise confidence is medium for both time horizons.31 32 33 34
  • 23. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-23 Total pages: 31 Figures1 2 3 4 Figure SPM.1: (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean temperature anomalies from three surface5 temperature data sets (black – HadCRUT4, yellow – MLOST, blue – GISS). Top panel: annual mean values, bottom6 panel: decadal mean values including the estimate of uncertainty for HadCRUT4. Anomalies are relative to the mean of7 1961−1990. (b) Map of the observed temperature change from 1901−2012derived from temperature trends determined8 by linear regression of the MLOST time series. Trends have been calculated only for grid boxes with greater than 70%9 complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Grid boxes where the10 trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. {Figures 2.19–2.21; Figure TS.2}11
  • 24. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-24 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.2: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate: (a) Northern Hemisphere March-April4 average snow cover extent, (b) Arctic July-August-September average sea ice extent, (c) change in global mean upper5 ocean heat content normalized to 2006−2010, and relative to the mean of all datasets for 1971, (d) global mean sea level6 relative to the 1900–1905 mean of the longest running dataset, and with all datasets aligned to have the same value in7 1993, the first year of altimetry data. All time-series (coloured lines) show annual values, and where assessed,8 uncertainties are indicated by different shades of grey. See Chapter 2, Supplementary Material 2.SM.5 for a listing of9 the datasets. {Figures 3.2, 3.13, 4.19, and 4.3; FAQ 2.1, Figure 2; Figure TS.1}10
  • 25. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-25 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.3: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle. Measurements of atmospheric4 concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are from Mauna Loa and South Pole since 1958. Measurements of partial5 pressure of CO2 at the ocean surface are shown from three stations from the Atlantic (29°10′N, 15°30′W – dark6 blue/dark green; 31°40′N, 64°10′W – blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (22°45′N, 158°00′W − light blue/light green),7 along with the measurement of in situ pH, a measure of the acidity of ocean water (smaller pH means greater acidity).8 Full details of the datasets shown here are provided in the underlying report. {Figures 2.1 and 3.17; Figure TS.5}9 10
  • 26. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-26 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.4: Radiative forcing estimates with respect to 1750 and uncertainties for the main drivers of climate4 change. Values are global average radiative forcing (RF, see 8 ) partitioned according to the emitted compounds or5 processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing is shown as a black6 diamond with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right of the figure, together7 with the confidence level (VH – very high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). For halocarbons,8 confidence is H for ozone, and VH for CFCs and HCFCs. For aerosols, confidence is H for total aerosols, and M for9 individual aerosol components. Aerosol forcing other than cloud adjustments is the −0.27 W m−2 shown in the bar10 above and the −0.04 W m−2 from the nitrate response to NOx emissions (which is equal to the −0.35 W m−2 due to11 aerosol-radiation interactions plus +0.04 W m−2 due to black carbon on snow), while the cloud adjustment term includes12 a response of −0.1 W m−2 due to aerosol-radiation interactions which is attributable to black carbon and −0.45 W m−2 13 that has not been attributed to individual components. Small forcings due to contrails, volcanoes, HFCs, PFCs and SF614 are not shown. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided for three different years with respect to 1750. {Figures15 8.16 and 8.18; Figures TS.6 and TS.7}16 17
  • 27. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-27 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.5: Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on time-series of three large-scale4 indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels),5 Arctic and Antarctic sea ice (white panels), ocean heat uptake in the major ocean basins (blue panels). Global average6 changes are also given. All time-series are decadal averages, plotted at the centre of the decade. For temperature panels,7 observations are dashed lines if the spatial coverage of areas being examined is below 50%. For ocean heat content and8 sea ice panels the solid line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the9 data coverage is only adequate, and thus, uncertainty is larger. Model results shown are CMIP5 multi-model means and10 ensemble ranges, with shaded bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals 13 . See Chapter 10, Supplementary11 Material 10.SM.1 for datasets and methods used. {Figure 10.21; Figure TS.12}12 13 For surface temperature, the blue shaded band is based on 52 simulations from 17 climate models using only natural forcings, while the red shaded band is based on 147 simulations from 44 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings. For ocean heat content, 10 simulations from 10 models, and 13 simulations from 13 models were used respectively. For sea ice extent, a subset of models are considered that simulated the mean and seasonal cycle of the sea ice extent within 20% of the observed sea-ice climatology for the period 1981–2005 (Arctic: 24 simulations from 11 models for both red and blue shaded bands, Antarctic: 21 simulations from 6 models for both red and blue shaded bands).
  • 28. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-28 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.6: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a), change in global annual mean4 surface temperature relative to 1986–2005, see Table SPM.2 and footnote 9 for other reference periods. (b), Northern5 Hemisphere sea ice extent in September (5 year running mean), and (c), global mean ocean surface pH. Time series of6 projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading, minimum-maximum range) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue)7 and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The8 mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars.9 The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated. For sea ice extent (b), the projected10 mean and uncertainty (minimum-maximum range) of the subset of models that most closely reproduce the11 climatological mean state and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice is given. For completeness, the CMIP5 multi-12 model mean is indicated with dashed lines. {Figures 6.28, 12.5, and 12.28–12.31; Figures TS.15, TS.17, and TS.20}13 14 15
  • 29. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-29 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.7: Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100 of (a),4 surface temperature change, (b), average percent change in mean precipitation, (c), Northern Hemisphere September sea5 ice extent, and (d) change in ocean surface pH. Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The6 number of CMIP5 models to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For7 panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions where the multi model mean is less than one standard deviation of internal8 variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi model mean is greater than two standard deviations of internal9 variability and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). In panel (c), the lines are the modeled10 means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white11 color, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state12 and 1979‒2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice cover is given in grey color. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29;Figures13 TS.15, TS.16, TS.17, and TS.20}14
  • 30. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-30 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.8: Projections of global mean sea level change over the 21st century relative to 1986−2005 from the4 combination of CMIP5 and process-based models, for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6, and RCP8.5. The assessed5 likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed likely ranges for the mean over the period 2081−2100 for all RCP6 scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal line. Based on7 current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause8 global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. However, there is medium9 confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st10 century. {Table 13.5, Figures13.10 and 13.11; Figures TS.21 and TS.22}11 12 13
  • 31. Final Draft (7 June 2013) Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute SPM-31 Total pages: 31 1 2 3 Figure SPM.9: Global mean temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various4 lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 shown5 with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). The decadal means for 2001−2010 (star), 2041−2050 (square) and6 2091−2100, (diamond) are highlighted. Model results over the historical period (1860–2010) are indicated in black. The7 coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of8 available models. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per9 year, is given by the thin black line and dark grey area. The light grey wedge represents this report’s assessment of the10 transient climate response to emissions (TCRE) from CO2 only. All values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base11 period. The horizontal brown bar and solid black line at the bottom-left illustrate the assessment of total cumulative12 carbon emissions until 2011 with associated uncertainties. All time-series are represented by connecting decadal13 averages to illustrate the long-term trends. {Figure 12.45; TFE.8, Figure 1}14